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Statistics Never Lie-- Do They?

November 30, 2007 10:41 PM

The statistics keep coming in, with the same message – violence continues to drop in Iraq. 37 US troops killed so far this month in Iraq – that is over one a day, but a big drop from the 126 who died in May this year - a 71% drop.

Iraqi casualties are plummeting too – according to an Iraqi government official with access to the government’s figures, 98 civilians were killed in Baghdad in November, compared to 495 in April – an 80% drop.

There were 38 car bombs in April, just 15 in November.

Sure, this is not Switzerland. But it is certainly a lot calmer in Baghdad now than it was at the beginning of the year.

Which is all very fine, but the really interesting question is what is behind these statistics? Why the sudden fall in violence now?

The surge of US troops is part of it, but not all of it. 30,000 extra American soldiers were never going to stop 25 million Iraqis from killing each other if they were determined to go ahead with a fully fledged civil war.

At the same time as the surge there has been a huge swing in Iraqi public opinion – first on the Sunni side, and now increasingly on the Shiite side.

Iraq, it seems to me, is beginning to self-correct.

Starting in Anbar and then spreading to Baghdad and surrounding provinces, the Sunnis began to say – we don’t want to live in fear from Al Qaeda. We don’t like extremists telling us we cannot smoke, cannot listen to music and must allow them to marry our daughters off to whomever they decided. This so-called Sunni awakening has been encouraged by the US, and large sums of money have been paid to Sunni tribes to keep them on board. But the initial impetus came from the Iraqis.

A similar phenomenon is beginning to spread amongst Shiites, who are tired of Mahdi Army gangsters who had been going around Baghdad kidnapping, torturing and killing civilians – most but not all Sunni.

Iraq had long been one of the most secular of all the Arab countries. The war skewed everything and engendered extremism, but now Iraqis are reverting to type. And that type would much prefer to spend the afternoon in a coffee shop than shooting at imagined enemies. The next big question – when the US starts drawing down its troops, can the extremists creep back in and inflame people enough to start the fighting again? I have great fears.

November 30, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)

Baghdad's Montagues and Capulets

November 27, 2007 5:27 PM

We spent some time yesterday with Luay Rudha, a 31 year-old plumber, and his new bride, Eman Jabbar, 30.  I am not given to sappy metaphors, but their story seemed uncannily like an Iraqi version of Romeo and Juliet.

Luay is Shiite, Eman is Sunni.  They both lived in Amil district in western Baghdad, a mixed neighborhood which became one of the most dangerous parts of the city when the militias from both sides started killing civilians in a brutal ethnic cleansing campaign.

Eman is a teacher, and Luay used to see her every morning when she walked to school.  It took him some months to even find out what her name was.  He tried to send her notes and even call her, but for almost a year she resisted.  But when he refused to give up she began talking to him on the phone, then let him drive her to and from work – a 5 minute drive – and ultimately would go out on dates with him to the local coffee shop.

Her family is very conservative, and they were dead set against the couple marrying.  Eman was careful to say that the initial resistance was not so much because Luay was Shiite, but because he was a stranger to them, and they had intended her to marry a man from their extended clan.  But then Baghdad’s noxious sectarianism further complicated their lives, when Eman’s brother was killed by Shiite militiamen.  That set her entire family against her marrying a Shiite. 

With violence out of control in their neighborhood, the US military put up concrete walls separating the Sunni and Shiite areas – it seemed like everything was conspiring against them.

Luay was still not deterred – and by now Eman, who was convinced of Luay’s devotion, was equally determined to overcome her family’s opposition.  In August of this year, as violence finally seemed to be decreasing, the “star cross’d lovers announced their engagement.  To their delight and surprise, her family and neighbors were all supportive – the Sunni-Shiite marriage seemed to suggest that the terrible rift that had opened up in Iraqi society was finally on the mend.  Sure enough the killings continued to go down.

Their wedding was on October 18th. 

As it happens, the US military is now taking down the walls they put up earlier this year.  Luay says it is no coincidence.  “We proved that Shiite are still marrying Sunnis and Sunnis are still marrying Shiites.  This has broken the walls between the two sects in our neighborhood.”

November 27, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)