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ABC News' Terry McCarthy has been reporting on war, peace, and everything in between from all around the world for 20 years. He writes about daily life in the areas he is reporting from.
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Statistics Never Lie-- Do They?
November 30, 2007 10:41 PM
The statistics keep coming in, with the same message – violence continues to drop in Iraq. 37 US troops killed so far this month in Iraq – that is over one a day, but a big drop from the 126 who died in May this year - a 71% drop.
Iraqi casualties are plummeting too – according to an Iraqi government official with access to the government’s figures, 98 civilians were killed in Baghdad in November, compared to 495 in April – an 80% drop.
There were 38 car bombs in April, just 15 in November.
Sure, this is not Switzerland. But it is certainly a lot calmer in Baghdad now than it was at the beginning of the year.
Which is all very fine, but the really interesting question is what is behind these statistics? Why the sudden fall in violence now?
The surge of US troops is part of it, but not all of it. 30,000 extra American soldiers were never going to stop 25 million Iraqis from killing each other if they were determined to go ahead with a fully fledged civil war.
At the same time as the surge there has been a huge swing in Iraqi public opinion – first on the Sunni side, and now increasingly on the Shiite side.
Iraq, it seems to me, is beginning to self-correct.
Starting in Anbar and then spreading to Baghdad and surrounding provinces, the Sunnis began to say – we don’t want to live in fear from Al Qaeda. We don’t like extremists telling us we cannot smoke, cannot listen to music and must allow them to marry our daughters off to whomever they decided. This so-called Sunni awakening has been encouraged by the US, and large sums of money have been paid to Sunni tribes to keep them on board. But the initial impetus came from the Iraqis.
A similar phenomenon is beginning to spread amongst Shiites, who are tired of Mahdi Army gangsters who had been going around Baghdad kidnapping, torturing and killing civilians – most but not all Sunni.
Iraq had long been one of the most secular of all the Arab countries. The war skewed everything and engendered extremism, but now Iraqis are reverting to type. And that type would much prefer to spend the afternoon in a coffee shop than shooting at imagined enemies. The next big question – when the US starts drawing down its troops, can the extremists creep back in and inflame people enough to start the fighting again? I have great fears.
November 30, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (6)
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We all need to remember that in the past when violence has increased this administration has claimed this was "proof" that policy was working. It was good that our enemies where killing because it proved how desperate they were. Now that violence has decreased we once again hear that policy is working. well which is it? Both and increase and a decrease can not prove that we are on the right path.
Posted by: tj | Dec 7, 2007 5:03:58 PM
Wow! This is a brilliant report. It's writer has an excellent ability to analyze a situation.
Posted by: the old man | Dec 8, 2007 10:37:09 AM
Actually the quote is: "Figures don't lie, but liars sure figure". My sons is in his second year in Baghdad and commented that two things happened this summer that really made the difference. 1) all armed groups were informed they had to join the government or be destroyed. In effect all unregulated milita were formally outlawed. 2) The Shiite Mahdi leader, Al Sadr, is a part of the 10% Shiite Muslim minority in Iraq. He agreed to lay down his arms and join the government after being seriously whacked this summer. He is now studying to become recognized as the 'Mahdi' or twelveth iman (the savior) in the Shiite faith.
Posted by: Trailfan | Dec 9, 2007 11:50:49 AM
Statistics don't lie. Journalists lie. They lie to get front page stories. They lie to get Pulitzer prizes, and they lie in order to spread hypocritical liberal politics. And they will lie to take credit for the upturn in Iraq - even though they created the situation there by spreading terrorist propaganda.
Posted by: Neo Politicus | Dec 17, 2007 6:11:01 AM
There's one factor I don't hear much about. That is a large number of Iraqis left for Syria.
Posted by: SARGE | Feb 3, 2008 10:52:48 AM
Regarding: "...when the US starts drawing down its troops, can the extremists creep back in and inflame people enough to start the fighting again? I have great fears."
Hmm. I was just reading about Obama's response to McCain's charges about the Iraq war. It seems Obama doubts it. Certainly, may George Bush's strategy prove Obama right. I have great fears also.
Posted by: Bill | Feb 27, 2008 9:06:28 PM
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