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Tropical Storms and the Katrina Effect

2008-09-09T12:05:13-04:00

If you were to roll time back to the days before Hurricane Katrina, it would be a truly rare occurrence to see any "tropical storm" search terms in the top 1,000 overall search terms. Since Katrina's tragic devastation, search term data indicates that our sensitivity to and our awareness of tropical storms has increased dramatically.

The chart below shows the volume of searches containing "tropical storm" over the last year.

In the four weeks ending Sept. 6, 2008, the top tropical storm searches were; Fay, Hanna and Gustav. Search term data also indicates that searchers are becoming more sophisticated in the storm searches, with queries such as "Tropical Storm Fay tracking" and "Tropical Storm projected path" making the top search list.

Palin Most-Searched-For Political Figure

2008-09-03T11:06:52-04:00

John McCain's decision to add Sarah Palin to the Republican ticket has resulted in unprecedented media coverage for the first female Republican VP nominee, but just how interested is the American public in the governor from Alaska?

Search-term volume is arguably the best way to measure curiosity about Sarah Palin (although it is more difficult to gauge the sentiment behind that curiosity). As the chart below indicates, Palin now claims the title of the most-searched-for political figure in the last three years.

As I pointed out in my TIME.com column this week, while there are search queries surrounding Palin's stance on the issues, one of the most common themes of searches for Palin are requests for pictures (more specifically, "hot" pictures of the nominee).

Search term data provides an unprecedented insight into how we view current affairs and personalities in the news.

Luxury Retail Heading for a Slump?

2008-08-28T11:19:28-04:00

As reported here, luxury retailer stocks have been holding steady despite troubling economic news. Website visit data may provide us with some insight into what the future may hold for those same stocks. The chart below details year-over-year visits of the top luxury retail websites (including Neiman Marcus, Saks, Nordstrom, Coach and Gucci to name a few).

Over the last two weeks, visits to high-end retailer websites have dipped below visits to these same sites in 2006 and 2007. The next two months will be very telling in terms of what the holiday season may hold for luxury retailers.

Obama Antichrist: The Weird World of Political Searches

2008-08-19T12:24:33-04:00

Having analyzed Internet search patterns for over five years now, I find that it's rare that I'm surprised by what we search for on our favorite search engine. This morning, I decided to check in on the top search terms around the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee. The seventh most popular search term was quite surprising.

While I've heard about this "urban legend" in the past, I had no idea how popular the actual query was. Conducting a Google search on that exact phrase (in quotes) returned 70,200 results, including the top result, a blog dedicated to the topic.

The most popular Web site visited after searching for "obama antichrist," accounting for 16.2 percent of visits, was the Urban Legends Reference Page (also known as Snopes.com), which may indicate that the popularity of the term might be explained by Internet users searching for information to debunk the myth.

McCain v. Obama: Searching for Our Next President

2008-08-13T15:09:46-04:00

What can search terms tell us about the current state of the presidential race? Unfortunately, due to confounding reasons or "search missions" (i.e., a candidate search may be a sign of support or a mission to find negative information) are not accurate predictors of election results. However, search term data can provide interesting insight into how often we search for a candidate and what may be behind our searches.

First, a chart of search-term volume (U.S. Internet searchers) between McCain and Obama:

Obama has maintained his lead in searches, although that lead has been shrinking as we approach November. Using Hitwise Search Term Analysis, we can determine, over the last four weeks, the end destination of searches for the two candidates. First Obama:

Now McCain:

One of the most interesting elements of the search term analysis between the two candidates is the difference in Wikipedia as an end-destination for searches on each candidate's name. "John McCain" searches result in more than 40 percent more visits to online social encyclopedia Wikipedia. Search visits to Wikipedia often indicate an educational search mission, or in other words, searchers are seeking more information about a candidates background and platform. Could this indicate that a significant number of McCain searchers are swing or undecided voters? I'm interested in hearing your thoughts.

Back-to-School: Online Holds Steady

2008-08-11T17:17:53-04:00

Despite reports from retailers of expected declines in the back-to-school retail season, online data reveals that visits to office supply and school supply sites is holding steady when compared to previous year's visits. The chart below provides a three-year perspective on visits to office/school supply websites.

The dramatic yearly spikes occur the first week of January (likely caused by New Year's resolutions to get organized and fresh office supply budgets).

To get a better understanding of visits to these sites, the next chart provides a year-over-year comparison of visits to those same sites.

As we've reported previously, trends in visits to online retailers tend to go in the opposite direction of reported bricks and mortar store sales. The most likely cause for this phenomenon is that tougher economic times drive consumers online to find the best prices.

Obama v. McCain: The Demographics

2008-08-06T11:45:21-04:00

We have a new tool at Hitwise that allows us to take the demographics and psychographics of visitors to a website and then, based on the segmentation of visitors to that site across basic demographics (gender, age, income, region) and Mosaic types (50 types based on behavioral activity) and find the best match for other sites by category.

I ran an experiment this morning using the official campaign sites for Barack Obama and John McCain, here are the results. While not all Linkin Park fans are Barack Obama supporters, or Yankee fans McCain supporters, this simple analysis tells us those sites that best match the composition of visitors by industry category.

As we get closer to November, I'll continue to build online personas based on demographic match for each candidates site visitor. Stay tuned.

Post Tour - Dwindling U.S. Interest in Cycling

2008-08-04T15:26:34-04:00

On the road this weekend grinding out my weekly 35 mile ride, I was reminiscing with one of my cycling buddies about the dwindling effect that the Tour de France has had on new bikes and cyclists hitting the road in July. During the heyday of the Tour de Lance (the seven consecutive years that Lance Armstrong won the tour between 1999 and 2005) we would see a surge in new cyclists hitting the road as well as new Trek road machines (the official ride of the USPS team and Team Discovery).

This July there was a noticeable decline in both new riders on the road and new Trek's leading me to wonder what effect Lance's absence, and the end of the USPS/Dynasty has had on cycling interest in the U.S. (using search terms as a proxy).

The chart of searches on "Tour de France," "Lance Armstrong" and "Trek" shows the decline in interest. On the bright side there's more road for the rest of us (a good thing considering my safety record on a roadbike).

Where is _____? The Internet Lost and Found

2008-07-31T11:37:20-04:00

Along with finding lost Web sites, misplaced factoids and other pieces of forgotten information, some of us turn to search engines to discover where things are. From the Hitwise sample of 10 million Internet users, here are some of the top "where is" searches typed into search engines by U.S. Internet users:

1. Where is my stimulus check?

2. Where is Steve Bartman?

3. Where is Lichtenstein?

4. Where is my stimulus payment?

5. Where is my stimulas [sic] check?

6. Where is my tax refund?

7. Where is Heaven?

8. Where is Bahrain?

9. Where is the Grand Canyon?

10. Where is my liver?

Browsing through the top thousand "where is" queries makes it clear that many of us are still waiting to receive our tax refund checks. Why is Steve Bartman showing up in the No. 2 position? He was recently offered $25,000 to sign a picture of his moment of infamy (when, in reaching for a foul ball in game 6 of the 2003 National League Championship, he knocked the ball away from Cubs left fielder Moises Alou).

Housing Market - Have We Reached Bottom?

2008-07-29T12:11:02-04:00

Last week's report on existing home sales by the National Association of Realtors (NAR), revealing a 2.6 percent decline from May, added to the pile of sobering news about the housing market and the economy. Here at Hitwise, we have found, in the past, that Internet activity around home purchase decisions -- specifically, searches for "homes for sale" -- provides valuable insight into what the future may hold for real estate.

While year-over-year we see a decline in "homes for sale" searches that match existing home sales reports, the last several weeks appear to show a leveling-off in real estate search activity. While home sales declined, the same NAR report indicated that average home prices have dropped 6.7 percent from the previous year. Search data could be indicating that market forces (buyers coming into the market to take advantage of lowering prices) are keeping near-future home sales from continuing their slide.