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McCain's Must-Win Battleground States
October 24, 2008 1:17 PM
The Big Ten Battleground Polls just can't be right. The latest surveys show Barack Obama leading John McCain in all eight Midwestern states all by double-digits.
Rather than calling them battleground states, you have to call them McCain must-wins.
Obama has built up incredible double-digit leads in the states won by Sen. John Kerry in 2004.
It also looks like he has insurmountable leads in Iowa and New Mexico, two states that voted for President George W. Bush four years ago.
So that leaves eight states Obama and McCain are fighting for right now: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Indiana, and Missouri.
McCain would have to win all eight of those battleground states to get to the 270 electoral votes needs to win the presidency.
Even if McCain wins seven of his must-win states and loses say, Nevada, which has five electoral votes, he would tie Obama 269-269 in electoral votes.
If there is a electoral tie, the 12th Amendment of the U.S. Constitution says the decision gets kicked to the House of Representatives, where each state gets a vote -- a formula that would likely guarantee an Obama victory.
Obama's path to victory appears much easier right now. Obama needs only to win all the states won by Kerry in 2004, the Bush -won states of Iowa and New Mexico where he's leading, plus one of Virginia, Ohio or Florida to become president of the United States.
Currently Obama is leading in all three of those toss-up states.
--George Stephanopoulos
October 24, 2008 in Barack Obama, Democrats Vote 2008, John McCain, Republicans Vote 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (401)
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THANK YOU! For taking that "George S. reports" line off the posts. Much better.
Posted by: Noonan | Oct 24, 2008 1:33:42 PM
...waiting for the republican spinners to start their gyrations...
ITS OVER!!STICK A FORK IN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY ...ITS DONE!!!
enjoy the next 4-8 years of peace and prosperity you undeserving morons.
Posted by: bah | Oct 24, 2008 1:38:55 PM
Race is the proverbial “Ethiopian in the fuel supply” in this election. Let’s wait and see how that plays out on election day.
Posted by: W.C. Fields | Oct 24, 2008 1:46:34 PM
At this time last year, Bush averaged about 1.5 points better than Kerry in the Popular Vote, according to Real Clear Politics which averages EVERY poll. At this moment, Obama averaging 7.5 over McCain.
McCain might bring it closer, but that is a huge gap. Especially since some people have already voted.
Don't worry Republicans, I know how you feel, because my party (Dems) lost two close presidential elections in a row. It was devastating to some of us. Also, all my worries about Bush seemed to come true.
Time to give the Dems a chance at the big chair! If Obama ends up being a bad president, you'll be able to elect a new one in 2012.
Let's see if the Dems can turn this nation around!
Posted by: Reason | Oct 24, 2008 1:47:25 PM
Thank God in less then two weeks Drude and Hannity's trolls will climb back under their rocks like rats, and not be heard of for at least four years.
Posted by: jen | Oct 24, 2008 1:47:51 PM
Those polls are looking to be a bit high, but the trend is certainly supported. But it is still a closer race than it appears. Obama's young and new voters have to actually show up at the polls and be willing to stick out the inevitable hours long saga that will plague districts that are not prepared for the turn out.
McCain is down now, but if the Obama supporters let up early he certainly can still slip in.
Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 24, 2008 1:52:34 PM
Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter "B" in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker [...]
Investigators did say that they received photos from the ATM machine and "the photographs were verified as not being the victim making the transaction."
This afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Todd confessed to making up the story.
The commander added that Todd will face charges; but police have not commented on what those charges will be.
Posted by: Thinking | Oct 24, 2008 1:55:21 PM
Boy this is revealing about how McCain operates. Pretty scary--
Posted by: Sophia | Oct 24, 2008 1:57:01 PM
Obama must win for the good of the nation and all 50 states are must win for him.
Posted by: gjkotw01 | Oct 24, 2008 2:01:54 PM
We will no longer be divided into red and blue. We will no longer be divided by fear tactics and negative ads. We will no longer stand for fake patriotism.
Posted by: Phil | Oct 24, 2008 2:04:21 PM
Police: Campaign Worker Admits Making Up Story
http://kdka.com/local/attack.McCain.Bloomfield.2.847628.html
Posted by: andie | Oct 24, 2008 2:07:23 PM
When are people going to realize that the economic problem is a domino effect that has to start at the state level.
People should look at a overlapping map of the the states that are hitting a recession, a map of unemployment and a map of red and blue states. Throw in the education score and housing foreclosure and you will see an interesting correlation. The red states have higher education schools, lower unemployment rates and lower foreclosure rates. Those conservative governments of those states must have hide their true identities from the press. Those red states favor republicans.
Posted by: Victor | Oct 24, 2008 2:07:46 PM
McCain and the RNC will attempt to steal this election - just like the 2000 and 2004 elections were stolen - by striking legitimate voters from voter registration rolls. The DNC had better be VIGILANT about this. Obama's lead will mean nothing if dirty politics are allowed to prevail.
Posted by: jon in maryland | Oct 24, 2008 2:07:54 PM
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) ― Police sources tell KDKA that a campaign worker has now confessed to making up a story that a mugger attacked her and cut the letter "B" in her face after seeing her McCain bumper sticker.
Ashley Todd, 20, of Texas, initially told police that she was robbed at an ATM in Bloomfield and that the suspect became enraged and started beating her after seeing her GOP sticker on her car.
Police investigating the alleged attack, however, began to notice some inconsistencies in her story and administered a polygraph test.
Authorities, however, declined to release the results of that test.
Investigators did say that they received photos from the ATM machine and "the photographs were verified as not being the victim making the transaction."
This afternoon, a Pittsburgh police commander told KDKA Investigator Marty Griffin that Todd confessed to making up the story.
The commander added that Todd will face charges; but police have not commented on what those charges will be.
According to police, investigators working on the interview process detected several inconsistencies in Todd's story that differed from statements made in the original police report.
Pittsburgh Police Public Information Officer Diane Richard released a statement earlier today, saying: "Because of the inconsistencies in her statements, Ms. Todd was asked to submit to a polygraph examination which she agreed to do."
No photos of Todd are being released by Pittsburgh Police at this time.
The investigation is continuing as officials determine what charges will be filed.
Posted by: BlueJersey | Oct 24, 2008 2:08:48 PM
Real Americans are of all race, political, and cultural affliations.
Posted by: Thinking | Oct 24, 2008 2:09:05 PM
Does this comment about the correlation of high unemployment and blue states exist?
Posted by: danielle | Oct 24, 2008 2:09:30 PM
What people should remember is this vote is not about parties. It is about whether we want to slip into Marxist/Communist policies (Obama) or continue the free market with tougher regulation (McCain).
Democrats should be just as scared of Obama as Republicans are.
Posted by: Michael | Oct 24, 2008 2:10:15 PM
Danielle,
There is a strong correlation. It does not come up in the media because it shows liberal policies do not work unless there is a workforce that is willing to pay for it.
Posted by: James | Oct 24, 2008 2:12:11 PM
Can anyone explain to me why Obama is dead set against private savings?
His own plan calls for allowing people to spend 10k of their own 401k savings penatly free.
His colleagues are putting together a plan to REMOVE the tax shelter of saving in a 401k.
There is also a Democratic push to increase mandatory SS savings..
Why is the government always the answer?
Posted by: Michael | Oct 24, 2008 2:15:23 PM
Just remember next year when you are standing in the unemployment line because your company's higher taxes forced them to lay you off to "thank" Obama for your prosperity!
Hopefully he will have campaign money left over to "spread the wealth" but the way democrats spend spend spend, I doubt it.
Posted by: HH | Oct 24, 2008 2:16:14 PM
Obama is a true American story---a story of strength and success. His auccessful campaigning exemplifies this truth. He unites the two races ("black" and "white") and he embraces all races in America. He promotes a policy of inclusiveness. He is truely a God sent leader to save our country during these difficult times. May God bless the United States of America
Posted by: what667 | Oct 24, 2008 2:18:09 PM
Obama 08. Let's go people. The time is now! Vote early if you can!
OBAMA, OBAMA
Posted by: Tanya | Oct 24, 2008 2:20:11 PM
HH - Liar, liar...your pants on fire!
Obama 08. Let's get this show on the road people. Let's show them some real numbers!!!!!!!!!!!! Vote Obama
Posted by: Tanya | Oct 24, 2008 2:22:25 PM
Told Ya that God is a Dem.
Posted by: CW | Oct 24, 2008 2:23:22 PM
Just think, in 11 more days Sarah 'redneck' Palin will be back in Hillbilly Alaska and John McCain will be back in one of his 7 houses to never be heard from again. Thank goodness.
Posted by: PhilBgood | Oct 24, 2008 2:23:22 PM
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