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Obama Campaign Banking on Early Voters
October 28, 2008 7:59 AM
With one week to go before Election Day, one in 10 voters have already voted, which really is a sea change in American politics.
What we don't know yet is whether these early voters are brand new voters or people who would have voted anyway. That is the key question.
About one in three voters are expected to vote early in 2008. That's up significantly from the one in five voters that voted early in 2004, and one in seven in 2000.
Early voting is a growing trend, and the Obama campaign has really invested heavily in taking advantage of this new trend. In fact, its schedule in the final week is all focused on making sure these early voters get out and put those votes in the bank.
This week Obama is going to states where there is early voting, where the campaign knows it can harvest a bunch of new voters.
Already in eight toss-up states -Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia -- early voters have gone for Obama over McCain 74-25 percent.
Overall, a week ago Obama was at an 11-point advantage over John McCain. Now his lead has eased to seven points over McCain, with Obama leading the Arizona senator by 52-45 percent among likely voters, according to the ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll.
On the issue of trust to handle the economy, Obama's lead over McCain has gone from 18 points to 10 points.
Voters trust Obama over McCain 52 to 42 on trust to handle the economy, according to the latest ABC/Post tracking poll.
Last week, that number was 56-38 percent Obama over McCain.
Those numbers represent a bit of a move away from Obama. It's something to watch over the next 48 to 72 hours, and top strategists in both campaigns are watching that closely right now.
But the key polling number to watch is Obama's overall number. Right now, he's at about 52 percent. As long as he stays above 50 percent in support among likely voters, it's going to be pretty comfortable.
Even if McCain's numbers start to rise to 47 or 48 percent support, that's not going to be enough for alarm. What will be concerning is if Obama starts to drift down to the 51 or 50 percent mark -- that could be significant. The Obama campaign doesn't believe it's likely that Obama, in the final results, will beat his last polling number.
--George Stephanopoulos
October 28, 2008 in Barack Obama, Democrats Vote 2008, John McCain, Polls, Republicans Vote 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (75)
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Believe it or not, early voters are also voting for McCain. Gasp!
Posted by: newflash | Oct 28, 2008 10:32:34 AM
All states should have "early" voting. Here the polls are open for two weeks, and you can go when you want. The lines are short & it is managable. I'll never understand why or how they expect to get millions of people to go stand in line all on the same day. With technology available today, voting should be easy and convenient.
Posted by: i voted early and voted OBAMA | Oct 28, 2008 10:34:19 AM
YES., But still more Democrats are in line... GO OBAMA.
---------------------------------------
Believe it or not, early voters are also voting for McCain. Gasp!
newsflash
Posted by: Coy | Oct 28, 2008 10:36:44 AM
Me too, voted for McCain early voting yesterday. So as many of my friends.
Posted by: Ed | Oct 28, 2008 10:39:00 AM
Me too, voted for McCain early voting yesterday. So as many of my friends.
Posted by: Ed | Oct 28, 2008 10:39:07 AM
The polls mean nothing and I wish the media would stop using them to promote their apparent bias toward NObama. What matters is the votes made at the polling places and via mail ballot. Get out and vote, everyone. This country's future depends on it! Vote with your intellect, not with your racism or emotions. (And a note to ABC and everyone else who already assumes NObama will win -- not everyone is voting for him.)
Posted by: MyFellowAmericans | Oct 28, 2008 10:40:17 AM
I voted by absentee ballot on Friday. I work out of state and leave for work at 3:45 a.m. and don't get home until after 5:00p.m. If I had to face super long lines after working all day I would probably skip it all together.
Posted by: Terri | Oct 28, 2008 10:41:25 AM
I also voted early.......drumroll please For McCain/Palin.
My apologies to the mainstream media but many Americans actually still think for themselves and realize that we are a capitalistic society that would fall further into debt in many ways under an Obama community organizing event...errr...Presidency.
Posted by: NoBama | Oct 28, 2008 10:47:01 AM
Why are some states allowed to vote early and some not? Why can't everyone vote on the same day? With the same rules and regulations?
Posted by: Susan O | Oct 28, 2008 10:47:11 AM
There's the Joker grin again! The great Chameleon that will say Anything to be elected. When he gets done with destroying our country, He will make a great villian in the next Bat Man Movie!
Posted by: citizenforintegrity | Oct 28, 2008 10:51:54 AM
Mc Cain's statement yesterday linking Obama's civil rights comments to socialism was code to his base - that Obama - will disperse the wealth of this country to blacks. It underlines the racist tone of the McCain campaign. We need to move beyond such politics of division. We need to say goodbye to the politics of Bush/Cheney/Schmidt and Rove - and their 08 prop - McCain...
Posted by: jburke | Oct 28, 2008 10:52:49 AM
newflash: I agree completely. Most strategists believe the early voting is more helpful to John McCain because older voters tend to vote earlier and they favor McCain. I hope the gap keeps closing. I am doing my part to see that Obama is not elected on November 4th. Also, white men are starting to drift towards McCain now. All I can say is, it's about time! The radio interview Obama did in 1991 stating that the civil rights legislation and supreme court didn't go far enough and should redistributed wealth to the black community is going to really hurt Obama with male white voters. I am so glad his true colors are coming out in time to effect a change in the election results. Thank God! I knew that with how much his mouth runs on and on that he would eventually cause his own downfall. It is a ashame that women voters, simply because the Dem party throws them a couple of bones in policy, is willing to vote for Obama after how he assaulted the female gender with Hillary and than with Palin. I was most disappointed in male voters but I think that the women voters are a disgrace to our cause. IF they had any brains at all they would be opposing the election of Obama!
Posted by: obamanever | Oct 28, 2008 10:56:53 AM
Voted McCain/Palin. So did a family memeber. Never got a call this entire year from these biased pollsters.
Posted by: GK_1972 | Oct 28, 2008 10:58:43 AM
I kinda hope McCain wins. Four years with a Democrat as president won't make a lot of difference in the future of the country, no matter how the presidency goes. Four years with another mainstream Republican though and things will become so horrible in this country there won't be another Republican president until well after my grandchildren have died of old age. Go McCain!
Posted by: Neal | Oct 28, 2008 11:00:05 AM
Pro early voting! I being disabled enjoyed the fact I had no lines and easy parking to vote. Sure I could have done mail in, but I really enjoy actually out and casting my vote the old fashion way. Thank you to all the volunteers for their time, kindness and assistance.
Posted by: Lori | Oct 28, 2008 11:00:17 AM
I have a question for the Obama diehards out there. Why is it that Palin gave up her wardrobe that so many of you were kicking up a fuss about and went back to her thrift store clothes but yet Obama got matching funds for his campaign and he is wasting them on commercials, etc? Why isn't he being more conservative with the spending so that he can help the people losing their homes, etc. You are such a bunch of hypocrites!
Posted by: obamanever | Oct 28, 2008 11:00:38 AM
The polls mean nothing and I wish the media would stop using them to promote their apparent bias toward NObama. What matters is the votes made at the polling places and via mail ballot. Get out and vote, everyone. This country's future depends on it! Vote with your intellect, not with your racism or emotions. (And a note to ABC and everyone else who already assumes NObama will win -- not everyone is voting for him.)
Posted by: MyFellowAmericans | Oct 28, 2008 10:40:17 AM
Yes, I will be voting with my intellect. I will be voting for Obama...
Posted by: JH | Oct 28, 2008 11:01:27 AM
jburke:
Listen or read Obama's interview from 1991. He clearly states that the supreme court didn't go far enough with regards to civil rights for the black community and should have redistributed the wealth to the blacks for what they suffered. Okay, my ancestors suffered at the hands of coal mine owners so should wealth be redistributed and given to me now? Absolutely not, it is ridiculous. I do agree that all black people should have been given a free college education for the way they were treated but to redistribute wealth in society is socialism.
Posted by: obamanever | Oct 28, 2008 11:04:11 AM
Hey George, why aren't you reporting this? I don't think early voters would vote for McCain if they knew>>> Pete Yost, Associated Press writer has reported McCain has past connections to a radical, private group. Following is part of what he reported>>> John McCain has past connections to what was The U.S. Council for World Freedom, part of an international organization linked to former Nazi collaborators and ultra-right-wing death squads in Central America. The council's founder, retired Army Maj. Gen. John Singlaub, said McCain became associated with the organization in the early 1980s as McCain was launching his political career in Arizona. Singlaub said McCain was a supporter. "McCain was a new guy on the block learning the ropes," Singlaub told The Associated Press in an interview. "I think I met him in the Washington area when he was just a new congressman. We had McCain on the board to make him feel like he wasn't left out. It looks good to have names on a letterhead who are well-known and appreciated. In 1987, the Internal Revenue Service withdrew the tax-exempt status of Singlaub's group because of its activities. McCain was elected to the House in 1982 at a time when he was on the board of Singlaub's council. McCain has said previously he resigned from the council in 1984 and asked in 1986 to have his name removed from the group's letterhead. Singlaub does not recall any McCain resignation nor does Joyce Downey, who oversaw the group's day-to-day activities. "I don't ever remember hearing about his resigning.” “He certainly supported us."
Posted by: JJ Flash | Oct 28, 2008 11:06:41 AM
I voted early too-McCain/Palin. I also voted for a Democratic Senator and an Independant Representative. I am for checks and balances.
Posted by: Susan Grambley | Oct 28, 2008 11:08:11 AM
Obamanever---I will use small words for you. She said Obama was "elitist" (sorry for the multisyllabic word---whoops, I did it again!) yet the RNC spent HUGE bucks on her clothes and LOTS of lipstick. Money for Obama was to help run his campaign, not to dress his wife.
Hypocrite is too large a word. See: fake, bogus, phony
Posted by: Joe V | Oct 28, 2008 11:09:34 AM
Palin got caught. All of a sudden those nice Red suits have dissapeared. Those "funds" are for making sure the worse duo running for election dont win. Palin is already on her own agenda. McCain really shot himself in the foot picking her for VP. LOL
Posted by: Lori | Oct 28, 2008 11:11:43 AM
I remembered, several months ago all women said , if Hillary lost , they will vote MCcain because they dont want Barack Obama. Now they changed their minds, I see that they are balony!!! You know Barack Obama has a false birth certicate. I learned that he born in Kenya , not in U.S.A. Penn Judge knows about it and threw it away , I think Barack Obama gave Judge a lot of money to keep his secret.
Posted by: Buck | Oct 28, 2008 11:12:10 AM
I remembered, several months ago all women said , if Hillary lost , they will vote MCcain because they dont want Barack Obama. Now they changed their minds, I see that they are balony!!! You know Barack Obama has a false birth certicate. I learned that he born in Kenya , not in U.S.A. Penn Judge knows about it and threw it away , I think Barack Obama gave Judge a lot of money to keep his secret.
Posted by: Buck | Oct 28, 2008 11:12:27 AM
Obamanever---again! What do you call the nationalization of banks and government bailout of businesses and mortgage lenders? GOP=hypocrites.
¡Obámanos muchachos!
Posted by: Joe V | Oct 28, 2008 11:14:27 AM
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