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Sixty Senate Democrats? Play the Odds

October 28, 2008 8:41 AM

Capitolhilldome The conviction of Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens makes the possibility of Democrats getting a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority in the Senate more plausible than ever.

Stevens, convicted on seven federal charges of false statements and financial irregularities, is up for re-election next week.

John McCain is calling for Stevens to step down.

"It is a sign of the health of our democracy that the people continue to hold their representatives to account for improper or illegal conduct, but this verdict is also a sign of the corruption and insider dealing that has become so pervasive in our nation's capital," McCain said in a released statement today. "It is clear that Senator Stevens has broken his trust with the people and that he should now step down."

Just as Senate campaigns are cutting John McCain loose, McCain appears to be sacrificing Stevens' GOP senate seat in the hopes of saving himself.

Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Me., criticized McCain's robocalls. Gordon Smith, R-Ore., has used Obama in television ads. And in the key battleground state of North Carolina, Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole failed to appear at recent McCain events and ran a divided government ad against her Democratic challenger Kay Hagan that implicitly assumed an Obama win.

If anyone can win in the face of this scandal it is Ted Stevens. But Republican campaign officials believe he is likely to lose his seat.

There are 11 "at-risk" Republican Senate seats, including Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Virginia.

Playing the odds: Remember, Democrats need to pick up nine Senate seats to get to 60 votes.

If Stevens loses Alaska, that's one seat down for Republicans.

Right now, Democrats are comfortably ahead in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. That gets them up four Senate seats.

Democrats are also ahead in Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota and North Carolina. That gets them to eight.

But for the Democrats to get to 60, they would have to crack one of these Southern states: Georgia, Mississippi, or Kentucky, home of minority leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.

That's not likely, but Democrats are hoping for a 1980-like return when Ronald Reagan swept seats considered safe before Election Day.

The odds of Democrats winning these at-risk Republican seats?

Virginia - 98 percent
New Mexico and Colorado - 90 percent
Alaska - 80 percent
Oregon and New Hampshire - 70 percent
North Carolina - 65 percent
Minnesota - 60 percent
Georgia - 50-50 percent
Mississippi - 40 percent
Kentucky - 35 percent

Those are my best estimates, based on talks with Republican and Democratic strategists working the Senate races.

What are yours?

Also, Calculate the '08 Map to the White House, and run your own numbers on the path to 270 electoral votes.

--George Stephanopoulos

October 28, 2008 in Capitol Hill, Democrats Vote 2008, Republicans Vote 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (251)

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The distribution in the Senate would be
Dems 58
Repubs 42

Posted by: Steve_NJ | Oct 28, 2008 9:13:58 AM

Do you think Joe Liberman will caucas with the Dems?

Posted by: MaryD | Oct 28, 2008 10:01:36 AM

Joe Liberman is finished as a democrat.

Posted by: stump | Oct 28, 2008 10:09:52 AM

Well, George, aren't you happy? You are one of the most biased people I have ever watched. We knew how liberal you were but when ABC took their liberalism on the air, we, and I do mean we, are not watching ABC anymore.
Now, that does not matter to you and we don't care who wins the election, but fair is fair and ABC is no longer fair.

Posted by: Janice | Oct 28, 2008 10:11:09 AM

Well, George, aren't you happy? You are one of the most biased people I have ever watched. We knew how liberal you were but when ABC took their liberalism on the air, we, and I do mean we, are not watching ABC anymore.
Now, that does not matter to you and we don't care who wins the election, but fair is fair and ABC is no longer fair.

Posted by: Janice | Oct 28, 2008 10:11:09 AM

Everyone needs to stop talking about 60 as a magic number. With Lieberman in there, the magic number is 61. And the odds of 61 happening are slim and none. Then end tally will be between 55 and 58.

Posted by: ElodieStClair | Oct 28, 2008 10:32:55 AM

McCain has no room to talk after the disgusting way he's run his campaign. I was willing to give him a serious look before he brought Palin onboard, but if he can't even manage his own campaign he has no credibility for attempting to manage the country. He and Palin looked like Hitler firing up Nazi youth in their hate mongering from the stage, playing on fears of the evangelicals, and thinly veiled racism. Both McCain and Palin should be off the national stage, not telling others like corrupt Senator Stevens what to do. McCain simply has no remaining moral credible authority to sit in judgment of anyone after what he's behaved.

Posted by: Robert | Oct 28, 2008 10:34:15 AM

Why would any side of the aisle want a crook in the senate? Sen. Stevens needs to go.

Posted by: Cindy | Oct 28, 2008 10:34:40 AM

Party doesn't matter. ANYONE in Congress convicted of crimes like Mr. Stevens was should resign. That goes for both parties.

Posted by: MyFellowAmericans | Oct 28, 2008 10:36:36 AM

McCain is quick to kick a fallen friend as Sen. Ted Stevens for being found quilty, but he backs Palin who has been found quilty of abusing the power in the same Alaska.
Typical political hypocrisy if you asked me.

Posted by: thinker | Oct 28, 2008 10:37:09 AM

Another rush to a statement and erratic grandstand by McCain in a feeble attempt to show leadership.

Posted by: dan | Oct 28, 2008 10:38:53 AM

Where is Obama on this? Still smoking crack as he did for 10 years in high school, college and grad school? He admits to it in his book. How come he is not subject to a drug test as most Aemricans are when they apply for a job?NO . . . he is the Messiah and above a drug test or any background test. Stupid liberals!

Posted by: Obama the Crack Addict | Oct 28, 2008 10:39:12 AM

Janice: "Well, George, aren't you happy? You are one of the most biased people I have ever watched. We knew how liberal you were but when ABC took their liberalism on the air, we, and I do mean we, are not watching ABC anymore. Now, that does not matter to you and we don't care who wins the election, but fair is fair and ABC is no longer fair."

So what the h-e-l-l are you doing on ABC's website????????

Posted by: Kitty Wilberforce | Oct 28, 2008 10:39:36 AM

naw, naw mccain. say it ain't so! how can you call on stevens to step down when palin was found guilty of abusing her power as governor in troopergate and you did nothing. the investigation into troopergate was by a bipartisan legislative group that found palin guilty. so, mccain, how come you didn't ask palin to resign from the ticket? both stevens and palin are in the bucket labeled corruption. makes no sense mccain to throw stevens under the bus but not your beloved running mate. palin stonewalled, ignored subpoenas, lied and she still believes she did nothing wrong. oh mccain, how low can you go? apparently, lower and lower. too bad, so sad. you were on many peoples pedestal but not anymore.

Posted by: Lawrence | Oct 28, 2008 10:39:45 AM

Good try. Kick a fallen friend for pure political gain. So he can argue that the Dem would control the Senate and that's why people have to vote for him as Prez. Senator, only somebody with mental problems would vote for you instead of Obama. Look, you are like an old car with 200K + miles. Who would buy that when they can buy a brand new car with all the latest features?

Posted by: Jack Server | Oct 28, 2008 10:41:41 AM

And meanwhile, Palin doesn't call for his resignation. . .but then, she pals around with convicted felons.

Posted by: kevinbgoode | Oct 28, 2008 10:41:47 AM

The Alaska Democratic Party also issued a statement calling for Stevens to resign, which is not a surprise. If Stevens wins the election and then resigns, do we end up with a Senator Palin by self appointment.

Posted by: bhciapol | Oct 28, 2008 10:42:22 AM

Well duh. He was conficted, so how could anyone want to have a guy like that? It's obvious to the anyone that he has to go, even if it means loosing a Senate seat to the Democrats. After this, I really can't see how anyone in Alaska would vote for this guy.

Posted by: GWP | Oct 28, 2008 10:42:41 AM

JAnice - Kitty raises and excellant point. Go blog on Fox or something and leave those of us who still trust ABC, CNN etal to ourselves. I read several sites and try to keep things in perspective about the journalists. They are people too.

Posted by: Jenny Rome Ga | Oct 28, 2008 10:42:50 AM

This is of course, nothing more than Politics As Usual..

-McCain does this to try to look like he fights corruption and is the reformer/clean up man.
-Obama couldn't do it as it would have looked like he was trying to get a Republican out of the Senate to further Democratic control...

Smart move on McCain and Obama's behalf.

Now, if only McCain would call on Gov. Palin to step down since she as well as her Alaskan counterpart Stevens, is guilty of ethics violations!

Posted by: PoliticsAsUsual | Oct 28, 2008 10:43:03 AM

I agree Sen. Stevens needs to quit, or the people of Alaska just need to vote him out. I'm for voting out the rest of the incumbents too. Abuse of power seems to come to easily for these guys and they don't seem to be doing a great job of running this country, republican or democrats. I voted early and voted against all the incumbents from my home state of Kentucky, no matter what their party affliliation was. (I never vote a straight party line). I'm for a government of check and balances.

Posted by: Susan Grambley | Oct 28, 2008 10:43:46 AM

Palin....are u going to be mavericky and go against McCain in asking Stevens to step down?
she needs to make a clear statement

Posted by: watching | Oct 28, 2008 10:44:33 AM

I don't like monopoly either

Posted by: Vince | Oct 28, 2008 10:45:18 AM

All corrupt politicians should be removed from office. I find it rather disgusting that Democrats never hold their peers accountable.

Posted by: Bill | Oct 28, 2008 10:45:40 AM

bhciapol: If Stevens win again and force to resign, Alaska have to hold a special election to determine Steven's replacement. Palin (if she looses the election) can't take over the slot according to Alaska law nor can Steven choose his replacement.

Posted by: GWP | Oct 28, 2008 10:46:52 AM

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