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Sixty Senate Democrats? Play the Odds
October 28, 2008 8:41 AM
The conviction of Alaska Republican Sen. Ted Stevens makes the possibility of Democrats getting a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority in the Senate more plausible than ever.
Stevens, convicted on seven federal charges of false statements and financial irregularities, is up for re-election next week.
John McCain is calling for Stevens to step down.
"It is a sign of the health of our democracy that the people continue to hold their representatives to account for improper or illegal conduct, but this verdict is also a sign of the corruption and insider dealing that has become so pervasive in our nation's capital," McCain said in a released statement today. "It is clear that Senator Stevens has broken his trust with the people and that he should now step down."
Just as Senate campaigns are cutting John McCain loose, McCain appears to be sacrificing Stevens' GOP senate seat in the hopes of saving himself.
Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins, R-Me., criticized McCain's robocalls. Gordon Smith, R-Ore., has used Obama in television ads. And in the key battleground state of North Carolina, Republican Sen. Elizabeth Dole failed to appear at recent McCain events and ran a divided government ad against her Democratic challenger Kay Hagan that implicitly assumed an Obama win.
If anyone can win in the face of this scandal it is Ted Stevens. But Republican campaign officials believe he is likely to lose his seat.
There are 11 "at-risk" Republican Senate seats, including Alaska, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Mississippi, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, New Hampshire and Virginia.
Playing the odds: Remember, Democrats need to pick up nine Senate seats to get to 60 votes.
If Stevens loses Alaska, that's one seat down for Republicans.
Right now, Democrats are comfortably ahead in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. That gets them up four Senate seats.
Democrats are also ahead in Oregon, New Hampshire, Minnesota and North Carolina. That gets them to eight.
But for the Democrats to get to 60, they would have to crack one of these Southern states: Georgia, Mississippi, or Kentucky, home of minority leader Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky.
That's not likely, but Democrats are hoping for a 1980-like return when Ronald Reagan swept seats considered safe before Election Day.
The odds of Democrats winning these at-risk Republican seats?
Virginia - 98 percent
New Mexico and Colorado - 90 percent
Alaska - 80 percent
Oregon and New Hampshire - 70 percent
North Carolina - 65 percent
Minnesota - 60 percent
Georgia - 50-50 percent
Mississippi - 40 percent
Kentucky - 35 percent
Those are my best estimates, based on talks with Republican and Democratic strategists working the Senate races.
What are yours?
Also, Calculate the '08 Map to the White House, and run your own numbers on the path to 270 electoral votes.
--George Stephanopoulos
October 28, 2008 in Capitol Hill, Democrats Vote 2008, Republicans Vote 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (251)
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Now that Stevens is convicted, it's time for Alaska to figure out just exactly how Sarah and Todd Palin got that $500,000 house built by their "contractor friends." And it just happened to get built during the same time the Wasilla sports complex was being built -- you know, the one that allowed Sarah to leave the city $22,000,000 in debt. Gee, you don't suppose the Palin's had some "contractor friends" building the sports complex, do ya?
Posted by: Kitty Wilberforce | Oct 28, 2008 10:47:38 AM
Go McCain---- CLEAN UP WASHINGTON!
MCain/Palin 08
Posted by: citizenforintegrity | Oct 28, 2008 10:49:06 AM
Hey George, why aren't you reporting this>>> Pete Yost, Associated Press writer has reported McCain has past connections to a radical, private group. Following is part of what he reported>>> John McCain has past connections to what was The U.S. Council for World Freedom, part of an international organization linked to former Nazi collaborators and ultra-right-wing death squads in Central America. The council's founder, retired Army Maj. Gen. John Singlaub, said McCain became associated with the organization in the early 1980s as McCain was launching his political career in Arizona. Singlaub said McCain was a supporter. "McCain was a new guy on the block learning the ropes," Singlaub told The Associated Press in an interview. "I think I met him in the Washington area when he was just a new congressman. We had McCain on the board to make him feel like he wasn't left out. It looks good to have names on a letterhead who are well-known and appreciated. In 1987, the Internal Revenue Service withdrew the tax-exempt status of Singlaub's group because of its activities. McCain was elected to the House in 1982 at a time when he was on the board of Singlaub's council. McCain has said previously he resigned from the council in 1984 and asked in 1986 to have his name removed from the group's letterhead. Singlaub does not recall any McCain resignation nor does Joyce Downey, who oversaw the group's day-to-day activities. "I don't ever remember hearing about his resigning.” “He certainly supported us."
That said, I think McCain should resign his party's nomination NOW... Don't you???
Posted by: JJ Flash | Oct 28, 2008 10:49:49 AM
Why are the following Democrats still in Congress?
William Jefferson - the guy who got caught with $90,000 in bribes stuffed in his freezer.
Charley Rangel - who is Chair of the Ways and Means committee who didn't pay taxes on income property?
Posted by: MaryD | Oct 28, 2008 10:50:24 AM
Sen. McCain - nope, that one didn't stick, either. Try again.
Posted by: Aaron | Oct 28, 2008 10:51:52 AM
If McCain wants this man to step down he needs to ask his VP to step down also. She is just as guilty.
Sarah and Todd Palin got that $500,000 house built by their "contractor friends." And it just happened to get built during the same time the Wasilla sports complex was being built.
I saw this was being investigated but somehow they can not find the builder.
Posted by: becky | Oct 28, 2008 10:52:24 AM
Go McCain---- CLEAN UP WASHINGTON!
MCain/Palin 08
----------
LOLOLOLOL... my sides hurt please stop.....lolololoolol!
Posted by: becky | Oct 28, 2008 10:53:58 AM
I am shocked beyond belief that a Republican would be convicted of a crime. After all, the entire trailer park knows that the Republican party is the torch bearer for moral values, God, and apple pie. It must have been a Godless, liberal, country hating, gun banning, pro-gay, tree hugging, nuclear safety promoting, evolution teaching, anti prayer-in-schools, science over faith elitist judge and jury that convicted the pure Senator from Alaska. I need to go check the scriptures for some guidance in these dangerous times.
Posted by: dano | Oct 28, 2008 10:55:11 AM
McCain claims he never heard the word "victory" pass Obama's lips. All I can say to confused, erratic McGeezer: wait until Tuesday night.
Posted by: Joe V | Oct 28, 2008 10:55:32 AM
Yeah, Obama experimented with drugs in his youth. I think that's true of most anyone from the 60s. I've smoked pot three times in my life. Big deal. It never did anything at all. No reaction whatsoever. Unlike other politicians though, Obama has been open and honest about it, and frankly I WANT a politician in office who knows something of the real world and who's honest and has integrity (instead of all these other ones who lie and turn out to be corrupt and to have affairs over and over). Anyone who thinks any politician is not a real person with a past like anyone else is just nuts, and if you think that MOST of the people around you have not experimented with drugs at one time or another you're nuts. Stop watching Fox fake news.
Posted by: Robert | Oct 28, 2008 10:57:46 AM
It's really hypocritical for McCain to demand that Ted Stevens resign. For years Ted Stevens was one of McCain's staunchest allies. He even endorsed Sarah Palin's candidacy. Besides, Ted Stevens' crooked dealings are par for the course in the GOP. Look at McCain's own campaign staff. Randy Scheuneman was or is a lobbyist for Georgia (the country, not the state.) Rick Davis was a lobbyist for Freddie Mac. Charlie Black was a lobbyist for Ahmed Chalabi, whose misinformation got us into the Iraq war. In addition Charlie Black is a lobbyist for Blackwater which has robbed the government blind. And Carly Fiorina, the chair of the RNC, helped herself to a $ 45 million golden parachut as Hewlitt-Packard tanked because of Firona's mismanagement.
Sarah Palin's governorship is also filled with nepotism, which I don't have space to examine, but the much-touted Alaska natural gas pipeline, which remains a paper-only project and which will take years to complete, was an examine of a conflict-of-interest decision.
McCain's decision to call for Stevens' resignation epitomizes the hypocrisy of both John McCain and the entire Republican party. If we want to save the country, we need a clean sweep. Fire the entire GOP.
Posted by: Bill | Oct 28, 2008 10:58:26 AM
I live in NM and I'm following the race between Dem Udall and Rep Pierce. I don't think Pierce has a chance of winning the seat vacated by Rep Pete Domenici. I have 2 die-hard Republican brothers and both are voting for Udall. The reason given is that Udall and his staff have always been very helpful to them with both their personal and business affairs here in NM. The Udall family is well-known here and they have support across party lines.
For me, it's easy. I'm voting a straight Democratic ticket this time. And besides, Steve Pierce looks and acts as if he is mentally challenged.
Posted by: Izadorra | Oct 28, 2008 11:00:10 AM
McPalin keeps repeating the lie that Obama has already written his inaugural address. Not true! That being said, it's not too early for McClown and Sarah the Shopper to pen their concessions speeches.
Posted by: Joe V | Oct 28, 2008 11:00:32 AM
Craig & Vitters sitting in the sand...both wish the other was a man....GOP=STD
Posted by: Clint | Oct 28, 2008 11:03:00 AM
BREAKING NEWS!!! PALIN RESIGNS!!!
Posted by: Jack Server | Oct 28, 2008 11:04:12 AM
What are the people of Alaska thinking? This is the senator that was over the sub-committee in 05 when oil company CEO’s were called in about price gouging, he REFUSED to swear them in. Had they been swore in then anything they said un-truthful could come back to haunt them. Now convicted for taking kickbacks from an oil company and lying about it, who would have thought! Also “Bridge to Nowhere” $200 mil of our tax dollars. Americans need to have ZERO tolerance for corruption in government whether Democrat, Republican or Independent. He needs to serve jail time and be fined.
Posted by: rickyt1234 | Oct 28, 2008 11:04:15 AM
Where is Obama on this? Still smoking crack as he did for 10 years in high school, college and grad school? He admits to it in his book. How come he is not subject to a drug test as most Aemricans are when they apply for a job?NO . . . he is the Messiah and above a drug test or any background test. Stupid liberals!
Posted by: Obama the Crack Addict | Oct 28, 2008 10:39:12 AM
** for one Cindy McCain is an admitted drug addict too.. and she stole from the sick
number two what does that have to do w/ Senator Stevens and his attempt to get over? Stick to one story! He was wrong and he should step down and I commend McCain for that.. I wish he would have ran this way the whole time then I may would have voted for him!
Posted by: Wow! | Oct 28, 2008 11:04:49 AM
It does not matter which party Stevens is, if he was a dem I would say resign too and I would vote against him just for that.
I think many of our congressmen have been there too long. 30+ yrs is a LONG time to be in charge.
How many states have limits? I love the fact FL has limits I think more states should do that.
Posted by: mike | Oct 28, 2008 11:06:01 AM
someone explain to me why in the HECK is he asking for a Senator of the state that his so-called running mate is govenor of. that is her JOB. Can she not do anything without the advice or leadership of a man.
Posted by: Preston | Oct 28, 2008 11:06:28 AM
Nobody knows what the final numbers will be. A lot depends on how many new votere there will be for Obama. Republicans like my wife and I will be voting for Obama but otherwise Republican across the board. I think Obama is going to win 60 to 40....but the Senate will be 58 to 42.
Posted by: Jim Macko | Oct 28, 2008 11:08:07 AM
Dano at 10.55am -- best post I've seen in a while. Too funny !!
Posted by: JJ | Oct 28, 2008 11:08:14 AM
Surely you jest, Bill. Obama's campaign is just as bad with his veryquestionable dealings and relationship with Acorn, his ex campaign advisors who ran Freddie and Fannie absconding with many many $$$$, his association and questionable real estate dealings with the convicted Rezko, not to mention the Rev. Wright and Jesse Jackson. Would Obama call on Barny Frank and Thomas Dodd to resign? He doesn't have the courage to do so and they are just as corrupt as Sen Stevens.
Posted by: Mike | Oct 28, 2008 11:09:38 AM
I DO ENJOY SARA PALIN COMMENTS ABOUT
THIS GUYS CORRUPT ACTIONS. WHY DON'T SEE LOOK IN THE MIRROR. EXPENSES FOR TRANSPORTATION AND TRAVEL FOR HER CHILDREN. HER ELABORATE WARDROBE THAT SHE KNEW NOTHING ABOUT. HER MIS USE OF POWERS TO GET PEOPLE FIRED. SHE WILL MAKE AN EXCELLENT VICE PRESIDENT AND PRESIDENT. JUST WHAT AMERICA NEEDS AT THIS VITAL TIME. SHE IS AS CORRUPT AS HE IS AND SHE SHOUD CALL IT QUITS ALREAD.
OBAMA'S MY MAN
Posted by: MEOMY | Oct 28, 2008 11:09:58 AM
I've got to admit, it's getting better... a little better all the time (it can't get no worse)..."
Posted by: PRESIDENT OBAMA | Oct 28, 2008 11:10:08 AM
Preston wrote: "Can she not do anything without the advice or leadership of a man".
Nope, that's the reason Todd is always hovering around. It's funny, I don't think he trust her out of his sight.
Posted by: Clint | Oct 28, 2008 11:10:43 AM
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