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Obama Has Huge Support Among Unreliable First Time Voters
October 21, 2008 8:03 PM
The Obama campaign's intensive strategy of targeting new and first time voters appears to be paying off.
Barack Obama has a substantial lead over John McCain when it comes to first time voters, according to the latest ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll.
This year first time voters are about 11 percent of the electorate -- the same proportion they were in 2004.
But four years ago, first time voters backed Sen. John Kerry, D-Mass., over President George W. Bush 53 to 46 percent -- a 7 points advantage for the Democratic nominee. In 2008 first time voters favor Obama over McCain 73 - 26 -- a whopping 47 percentage point lead.
The latest ABC/Post tracking poll suggests first time voters including many young people, African Americans, and low-interest voters are motivated to vote on Nov. 4.
However these voters don't have a history of reliably showing up to the polls.
If they do turn out to vote on Election Day, it would be unprecedented and they would undoubtedly push Obama to a White House win.
--George Stephanopoulos
Click here for more of George's Bottom Line.
October 21, 2008 in Barack Obama, Democrats Vote 2008, John McCain, Polls, Republicans Vote 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (20)
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Well, here at one of the largest universities in the US, bus loads of first time voters are being transported to the early voting locations in record numbers, and the vast majority are voting Obama.
Posted by: Concerned American | Oct 21, 2008 8:14:12 PM
Make sure you tell every first time voter you know to make sure they get out to vote!!
Honestly, I hope that all the first time voters back Obama, but, regardless, I want EVERY first-time voter to get out there no matter who they are voting for.
You went to the trouble of registering, now go out and make your voice heard. You want to have the right to complain if you don't agree with the policies of this government?? EARN it!! VOTE!!
Posted by: This is SO Old | Oct 21, 2008 8:30:29 PM
I hear you Concerned.. my daughter is a first time voter and she along with all of her college friends have already voted. Of course, the McCain supporters will dismiss this by saying that it's just the media spin and their concealing the 'truth' or some other silly excuse. But those who are witnesses know better, and we are watching history in the making.
Posted by: RedNeckBob | Oct 21, 2008 8:33:11 PM
McCain tanked his own campaign. He tried to pander to his 'base' by running on a platform virtually identical to Bushs in taxes, foreign policy and energy. He again pandered to his base by picking Palin, putting himself first, not Country first. He stabbed him self in the back by then claiming that he put Country first despite his choices that showed otherwise. And he again stabbed himself in the back when he claimed he would run a clean campaign which then disolved into nothing but sustained character attacks and repeated lies.
It is amazing that he is not further behind in the polls than he is..
Posted by: msg | Oct 21, 2008 8:54:26 PM
I can only pray these young people don't let us down.
On another note, Michelle Obama chose a small local business woman to design her clothes. Sarah Palin chose Saks Fith Avenue (of Wall Street), Neiman Marcus and Macy's to pay for clothes using $150,000 of McCain's public financing.
So much for getting rid of the pork, Sarah. So much for helping small businesses Sarah!
Obama/Biden 08!
Posted by: Common Sense | Oct 22, 2008 4:19:22 AM
Setting up the "unreliable" young voters to take the fall, George?
Why did you not investigate the rampant fraud of 2004 so the public would not have reasonable doubts about the integrity of the results in 2008?
Posted by: brother | Oct 22, 2008 8:38:51 AM
To Barack Hussein Obama,
The New York Times carried a story on Saturday, October 4, 2008, that proved you had a significantly closer relationship with Bill Ayers than what you previously admitted. While the issue of your relationship is of concern, the greater concern is that you lied to America about it.
The Chicago Sun reported on May 8, 2008, that FBI records showed that you had a significantly closer relationship with Tony Rezko than what you previously admitted. In the interview, you said that you only saw Mr. Rezko a couple of times a year. The FBI files showed that you saw him weekly. While the issue of your relationship is of concern, the greater concern is that you lied to America about it.
Your speech in Philadelphia on March 18, 2008, about "race" contradicted your statement to Anderson Cooper on March 14 when you said that you never heard Reverend Wright make his negative statements about white America . While your attendance at Trinity Church for 20 years is of concern, the greater concern is that you lied to America on March 14.
In your 1st debate with John McCain, you said that you never said that you would meet with the leaders of Cuba, Venezuela, Iran, and North Korea without "preparations" at lower levels ... Joe Biden repeated your words in his debate with Sarah Palin ... while the video tape from your debate last February clearly shows that you answered "I would" to the question of meeting with those leaders within 12 months without "any" preconditions. While your judgement about meeting with enemies of the USA without pre-conditions is of concern, the greater concern is that you lied to America in the debate with McCain.
On July 14, 2008, you said that you always knew that the surge would work while the video tapes of you from more than a year ago show that you stated that the surge would not work. While your judgment about military strategy as a potential commander-in-chief is of concern, the greater concern is that you lied to America on July 14.
You now claim that your reason for voting against funding for the troops was because the bill did not include a time line for withdrawal, while the video tapes of you from more than a year ago show that you voted against additional funding because you wanted our troops to be removed immediately ... not in 16 months after the 2008 election as you now claim. While your judgment about removing our troops unilaterally in 2007 is of concern, the greater concern is that you lied to America about your previous position.
You claim to have a record of working with Republicans while the record shows that the only bill that you sponsored with a Republican was with Chuck Lugar ... and it failed. The record shows that you vote 97% in concert with the Democrat party and that you have the most liberal voting record in the Senate. You joined Republicans only 13% of the time in your votes and those 13% were only after agreement from the Democrat party. While it is of concern that you fail to include conservatives in your actions and that you are such a liberal, the greater concern is that you distorted the truth.
In the primary debates of last February, 2008, you claimed to have talked with a "Captain" of a platoon in Afghanistan "the other day" when in fact you had a discussion in 2003 with a Lieutenant who had just been deployed to Afghanistan . You lied in that debate.
In your debates last spring, you claimed to have been a "professor of Constitutional law" when in fact you have never been a professor of Constitutional law. In this last debate, you were careful to say that you "taught a law class" and never mentioned being a "professor of Constitutional law." You lied last spring.
You and Joe Biden both claimed that John McCain voted against additional funding for our troops when the actual records show the opposite. You distorted the truth.
You and Joe Biden claim that John McCain voted against funding for alternate energy sources 20 times when the record shows that John McCain specifically voted against funding for bio fuels, especially corn ... and he was right .... corn is too expensive at producing ethanol, and using corn to make ethanol increased the price of corn from $2 a bushel to $6 a bushel for food. You distorted the truth.
You and Joe Biden claim that John McCain voted like both of you for a tax increase on those making as little as $42,000 per year while the voting record clearly shows that John McCain did not vote as you and Joe Biden. You lied to America .
You and Joe Biden claim that John McCain voted with George W. Bush 90% of the time when you know that Democrats also vote 90% of the time with the President (including Joe Biden) because the vast majority of the votes are procedural. You are one of the few who has not voted 90% of the time with the president because you have been missing from the Senate since the day you got elected. While your absence from your job in the Senate is of concern, the greater concern is that you spin the facts.
You did not take an active role in the rescue plan. You claimed that the Senate did not need you while the real reason that you abstained was because of your close relationships with the executives of Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Countrywide, and Acorn ... who all helped cause the financial problems of today ... and they all made major contributions to your campaign. While your relationship with these executives and your protection of them for your brief 3 years in the Senate (along with Barney Frank, Chuck Schumer, Maxine Waters, and Chris Dodd) is of concern, the greater concern is that you are being deceitful.
You forgot to mention that you personally represented Tony Rezko and Acorn. Tony Rezko, an Arab and close friend to you, was convicted of fraud in Chicago real estate transactions that bilked millions of tax dollars from the Illinois government for renovation projects that you sponsored as a state senator ... and Acorn has been convicted of voter fraud, real estate sub prime loan intimidation, and illegal campaign contributions. Tony Rezko has contributed hundreds of thousands of dollars to your political campaigns. You personally used your political positions to steer money to both Tony Rezko and Acorn and you used Acorn to register thousands of phony voters for Democrats and you. While your relationships with Rezko and Acorn are of concern, the greater concern is that you omitted important facts about your relationships with them to America .
During your campaign, you said: "typical white person." "They cling to their guns and religion." "They will say that I am black." You played the race card. You tried to label any criticism about you as racist. You divide America .
You claim that you will reduce taxes for 95% of America , but you forgot to tell America that those reductions are after you remove the Bush tax reductions. You have requested close to $1 billion in earmarks and several million for Acorn. Your social programs will cost America $1 trillion per year and you claim that a reduction in military spending ($100 billion for Iraq ) can pay for it. While your economic plan of adding 30% to the size of our federal government is of concern, the greater concern is that you are deceiving America .
The drain to America 's economy by foreign supplied oil is $700 billion per year (5% of GDP) while the war in Iraq is $100 billion (less than 1% of GDP). You voted against any increases to oil exploration for the last 3 years and any expansion of nuclear facilities. Yet today, you say that you have always been for more oil and more nuclear. You are lying to America ...
Mr. Obama, you claimed that you "changed" your mind about public financing for your campaign because of the money spent by Republican PACs in 2004. The truth is that the Democrat PACs in 2004, 2006, and 2008 spent twice as much as the Republican PACs (especially George Soros and MoveOn.org). You are lying to America .
Oh, Mr. Obama, Teddy Roosevelt said about a hundred years ago that we Americans should first look at the character of our leaders before anything else.
Your character looks horrible. While you make good speeches, motivating speeches, your character does not match your rhetoric. You talk the talk, but do not walk the walk.
1. You lied to America . You lied many times. You distorted facts. You parsed your answers like a lawyer.
2. You distorted the record of John McCain in your words and in your advertisements.
3. You had associations with some very bad people for your personal political gains and then lied about those associations.
4. You divide America about race and about class.
Now let me compare your record of lies, distortions, race baiting, and associations to John McCain: War hero. Annapolis graduate with "Country first." Operational leadership experience like all 43 previously elected presidents of the USA as a Navy officer for 22 years. 26 years in the Senate. Straight talk. Maverick. 54% of the time participated on bills with Democrats. Never asked for an earmark. The only blemish on his record is his part in the Keating 5 debacle about 25 years ago.
Mr. Obama, at Harvard Law School, you learned that the end does not justify the means. You learned that perjury, false witness, dishonesty, distortion of truth are never tolerated. Yet, your dishonesty is overwhelming. Your dishonesty is tremendously greater than the dishonesty that caused the impeachment and disbarment of Bill Clinton. Your dishonesty is tremendously greater than the dishonesty of Scooter Libby. You should be ashamed.
Mr. Obama, it is time for us Americans to put aside our differences on political issues and vote against you because of your dishonest character. It is time for all of us Americans to put aside our political issues and vote for America first. It is time for America to vote for honesty.
Any people who vote for you after understanding that you are dishonest should be ashamed of themselves for making their personal political issues more important than character. Would these same people vote for the anti-Christ if the anti-Christ promised them riches? Would they make a golden calf while Moses was up the mountain? Would they hire someone for a job if that someone lied in an interview? Of course not. So why do some of these people justify their votes for you even though they know you are dishonest? Why do they excuse your dishonesty? Because some of these people are frightened about the future, the economy, and their financial security .... and you are preying on their fears with empty promises ... and because some (especially our young people) are consumed by your wonderful style and promises for "change" like the Germans who voted for Adolf Hitler in 1932. The greed/envy by Germans in 1932 kept them from recognizing Hitler for who he was. They loved his style. Greed and envy are keeping many Americans from recognizing you ... your style has camouflaged your dishonesty .... but many of us see you for who you really are ... and we will not stop exposing who you are every day, forever if it is necessary.
Mr. Obama, you are dishonest. Anyone who votes for you is enabling dishonesty.
Mr. Obama , America cannot trust that you will put America first in your decisions about the future.
Mr. Obama, you are not the "change" that America deserves. We cannot trust you.
Mr. Obama, You are not ready and not fit to be commander-in-chief.
Mr. Obama, John McCain does not have as much money as your campaign to refute all of your false statements. And for whatever reasons, the mainstream media will not give adequate coverage or research about your lies, distortions, word parsing, bad associations, race baiting, lack of operational leadership experience, and generally dishonest character. The media is diverting our attention from your relationships and ignoring the fact that you lied about those relationships. The fact that you lied is much more important than the relationships themselves .... just like with Bill Clinton and Richard Nixon ... Monica Lewinski and Watergate were not nearly as bad as the fact that those men lied about the events ..... false witness ... perjury ... your relationships and bad judgments are bad on their own .... but your lies are even worse.
Therefore, by copy of this memo, all who read this memo are asked to send it to everyone else in America before it is too late. We need to do the job that the media will not do. We need to expose your dishonesty so that every person in America understands who you really are before election day.
Mr. Obama, in a democracy, we get what we deserve. And God help America if we deserve you.
Michael Master
McLean, Virginia
Posted by: micheal master | Oct 22, 2008 11:07:44 AM
George, your logic is oddly scrambled.
"Historically"?
First-time voters DO NOT HAVE A HISTORY; that is what first-time means!
How can you conclude that new voters won't turn out in this historical year simply because some other set of people failed to vote for the drab candidates of 2004 or 2000?
Posted by: postmort | Oct 22, 2008 11:18:54 AM
Redneckbob My son attends Hofstra, home of the last debate. I asked him waht he thought of the lection he said he didn't care. Sad but true, so I asked if he didn't care would he vote for McCain because I do care. He said yes along with many of his other Hofstra friends. He was a one time Obama supporter I don't know what changed his mind. But something did, possibly some better informed College students who studied the issues and realized McCain was really best choice for them.
Posted by: conf1689 | Oct 22, 2008 4:01:21 PM
Just a little side note to all those that actually get out and read the news from time to time. I am here In chicago and yeah I am a 1st time voter and have made plans to vote early along with so many other people here in this city..I am a 1st time Democrat and I am glad to see this party finally rise above low expectations and you will see that the young vote will be one to remember..Not just the so called African American vote...America has had enough of the racial divide..we are "THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA" GO obama-biden and the rest of the dems in the senate and the house races
Posted by: eric B | Oct 22, 2008 4:22:58 PM
I suppose Michael Master's unfocused rehash of right-wing fear and smear themes makes it unlikely that readers will page down this far in the comments (you're kind of a thread killer, Mike!) but here goes:
It's easy to believe that McCain's campaign is designed to fail. He gave over control to a group of men (let's not even pretend there are any women in his inner circle, OK?) who have good, partisan reasons to see him fail. Lobbyists all, yet he's running as the anti-lobbyist. Extreme partisans all, yet he's running as the bi-partisan. Rovian and Atwaterites all, yet he's pledged to run a positive campaign. I tend to believe that McCain never originally intended to drive his campaign into the fever swamp of fear and smear where it's now stuck. The campaign team benefits from being able to say, "He wasn't tough enough" or "He wasn't conservative enough." First, though, he has to lose. He wasn't the party establishment's favorite by a long shot, so good riddance, right? Second, theyve burnished their political pro credentials by catering to the extreme rightwing elements that own the GOP. More future campaign consultant contracts int heir futures! There's a reason some insiders already leaked their preference for Palin in 2012. Unlike McCain, she's genuinely End Times scary crazy, and that's her good side! Third, they've made thir case for the free media value of negative campaigning, which is all the GOP has going for itself now. Stir up distractions by attack, attack, attack, and the horserace media eats it up. All negative all the time in order to regain power, just as they did in the salad days of talk radio, of Whitewater, Vince Foster, and Monica. It's what the nutwing is good at and what Mike is trying to foment above: undermining trust in a democratically elected Democratic administration and paralyzing Congress. The only thing they know how to do is complain and blame. Governing? The GOP has conclusively proved in the last eight years that it can't do THAT at all. I think that people he trusts don't want a Republican administration at all. They want to be angry.
Posted by: W Action | Oct 23, 2008 12:17:50 AM
Would the Last Honest Reporter Please Turn On the Lights?
By Orson Scott Card
Editor's note: Orson Scott Card is a Democrat and a newspaper columnist, and in this opinion piece he takes on both while lamenting the current state of journalism.
An open letter to the local daily paper — almost every local daily paper in America:
I remember reading All the President's Men and thinking: That's journalism. You do what it takes to get the truth and you lay it before the public, because the public has a right to know.
This housing crisis didn't come out of nowhere. It was not a vague emanation of the evil Bush administration.
It was a direct result of the political decision, back in the late 1990s, to loosen the rules of lending so that home loans would be more accessible to poor people. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were authorized to approve risky loans.
What is a risky loan? It's a loan that the recipient is likely not to be able to repay.
The goal of this rule change was to help the poor — which especially would help members of minority groups. But how does it help these people to give them a loan that they can't repay? They get into a house, yes, but when they can't make the payments, they lose the house — along with their credit rating.
They end up worse off than before.
This was completely foreseeable and in fact many people did foresee it. One political party, in Congress and in the executive branch, tried repeatedly to tighten up the rules. The other party blocked every such attempt and tried to loosen them.
Furthermore, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae were making political contributions to the very members of Congress who were allowing them to make irresponsible loans. (Though why quasi-federal agencies were allowed to do so baffles me. It's as if the Pentagon were allowed to contribute to the political campaigns of Congressmen who support increasing their budget.)
Isn't there a story here? Doesn't journalism require that you who produce our daily paper tell the truth about who brought us to a position where the only way to keep confidence in our economy was a $700 billion bailout? Aren't you supposed to follow the money and see which politicians were benefiting personally from the deregulation of mortgage lending?
I have no doubt that if these facts had pointed to the Republican Party or to John McCain as the guilty parties, you would be treating it as a vast scandal. "Housing-gate," no doubt. Or "Fannie-gate."
Instead, it was Senator Christopher Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank, both Democrats, who denied that there were any problems, who refused Bush administration requests to set up a regulatory agency to watch over Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and who were still pushing for these agencies to go even further in promoting sub-prime mortgage loans almost up to the minute they failed.
As Thomas Sowell points out in a TownHall.com essay entitled "Do Facts Matter?" ( http://snipurl.com/457townhall_com] ): "Alan Greenspan warned them four years ago. So did the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers to the President. So did Bush's Secretary of the Treasury."
These are facts. This financial crisis was completely preventable. The party that blocked any attempt to prevent it was ... the Democratic Party. The party that tried to prevent it was ... the Republican Party.
Yet when Nancy Pelosi accused the Bush administration and Republican deregulation of causing the crisis, you in the press did not hold her to account for her lie. Instead, you criticized Republicans who took offense at this lie and refused to vote for the bailout!
What? It's not the liar, but the victims of the lie who are to blame?
Now let's follow the money ... right to the presidential candidate who is the number-two recipient of campaign contributions from Fannie Mae.
And after Freddie Raines, the CEO of Fannie Mae who made $90 million while running it into the ground, was fired for his incompetence, one presidential candidate's campaign actually consulted him for advice on housing.
If that presidential candidate had been John McCain, you would have called it a major scandal and we would be getting stories in your paper every day about how incompetent and corrupt he was.
But instead, that candidate was Barack Obama, and so you have buried this story, and when the McCain campaign dared to call Raines an "adviser" to the Obama campaign — because that campaign had sought his advice — you actually let Obama's people get away with accusing McCain of lying, merely because Raines wasn't listed as an official adviser to the Obama campaign.
You would never tolerate such weasely nit-picking from a Republican.
If you who produce our local daily paper actually had any principles, you would be pounding this story, because the prosperity of all Americans was put at risk by the foolish, short-sighted, politically selfish, and possibly corrupt actions of leading Democrats, including Obama.
If you who produce our local daily paper had any personal honor, you would find it unbearable to let the American people believe that somehow Republicans were to blame for this crisis.
There are precedents. Even though President Bush and his administration never said that Iraq sponsored or was linked to 9/11, you could not stand the fact that Americans had that misapprehension — so you pounded us with the fact that there was no such link. (Along the way, you created the false impression that Bush had lied to them and said that there was a connection.)
If you had any principles, then surely right now, when the American people are set to blame President Bush and John McCain for a crisis they tried to prevent, and are actually shifting to approve of Barack Obama because of a crisis he helped cause, you would be laboring at least as hard to correct that false impression.
Your job, as journalists, is to tell the truth. That's what you claim you do, when you accept people's money to buy or subscribe to your paper.
But right now, you are consenting to or actively promoting a big fat lie — that the housing crisis should somehow be blamed on Bush, McCain, and the Republicans. You have trained the American people to blame everything bad — even bad weather — on Bush, and they are responding as you have taught them to.
If you had any personal honor, each reporter and editor would be insisting on telling the truth — even if it hurts the election chances of your favorite candidate.
Because that's what honorable people do. Honest people tell the truth even when they don't like the probable consequences. That's what honesty means . That's how trust is earned.
Barack Obama is just another politician, and not a very wise one. He has revealed his ignorance and naivete time after time — and you have swept it under the rug, treated it as nothing.
Meanwhile, you have participated in the borking of Sarah Palin, reporting savage attacks on her for the pregnancy of her unmarried daughter — while you ignored the story of John Edwards's own adultery for many months.
So I ask you now: Do you have any standards at all? Do you even know what honesty means?
Is getting people to vote for Barack Obama so important that you will throw away everything that journalism is supposed to stand for?
You might want to remember the way the National Organization of Women threw away their integrity by supporting Bill Clinton despite his well-known pattern of sexual exploitation of powerless women. Who listens to NOW anymore? We know they stand for nothing; they have no principles.
That's where you are right now.
It's not too late. You know that if the situation were reversed, and the truth would damage McCain and help Obama, you would be moving heaven and earth to get the true story out there.
If you want to redeem your honor, you will swallow hard and make a list of all the stories you would print if it were McCain who had been getting money from Fannie Mae, McCain whose campaign had consulted with its discredited former CEO, McCain who had voted against tightening its lending practices.
Then you will print them, even though every one of those true stories will point the finger of blame at the reckless Democratic Party, which put our nation's prosperity at risk so they could feel good about helping the poor, and lay a fair share of the blame at Obama's door.
You will also tell the truth about John McCain: that he tried, as a Senator, to do what it took to prevent this crisis. You will tell the truth about President Bush: that his administration tried more than once to get Congress to regulate lending in a responsible way.
This was a Congress-caused crisis, beginning during the Clinton administration, with Democrats leading the way into the crisis and blocking every effort to get out of it in a timely fashion.
If you at our local daily newspaper continue to let Americans believe — and vote as if — President Bush and the Republicans caused the crisis, then you are joining in that lie.
If you do not tell the truth about the Democrats — including Barack Obama — and do so with the same energy you would use if the miscreants were Republicans — then you are not journalists by any standard.
You're just the public relations machine of the Democratic Party, and it's time you were all fired and real journalists brought in, so that we can actually have a news paper in our city.
Posted by: barry | Oct 23, 2008 4:46:12 PM
"Mr. Obama, in a democracy, we get what we deserve. And God help America if we deserve you.
Michael Master
McLean, Virginia..."
Hope you feel better now that you got all that rehashed stuff off your chest.. because we all fast forwarded through it. Nobody reads those long posts especially when they start out using "...Hussein...".
Posted by: JDL | Oct 23, 2008 4:54:34 PM
Posted by: micheal master | Oct 22, 2008 11:07:44 AM
----------------
Very complete critique. Now do one on McCAIN. Obama's associations don't even come close to McShame's. And Palin it seems is the perfect bookend to McCAIN.
Posted by: No McCAIN | Oct 24, 2008 2:49:43 PM
No McCAIN / PALIN
No McCAIN / PALIN
Posted by: No McCAIN | Oct 24, 2008 2:54:26 PM
If McPalin wins, join me in sending McCain a case of vitamins. We do no want the man to die and be succeeded by the immoral moron Palin.
Posted by: steve martin | Oct 24, 2008 9:42:32 PM
jdl Some of us do read those posts because we are really searching for truth. You probably start reading an article and notice it doesn't agree with what you want to believe so you do not read it. that is not how you find the truth. if all you are going to read is what you have already made up your mind to believe you may as well go watch oprah.
Posted by: larry | Oct 25, 2008 12:49:09 AM
FEAR-MONGERS live sad lives.
Posted by: BooWho | Oct 25, 2008 1:24:27 AM
All the newly registered Democrats (first time voters) will vote!
The 'polls' are all way off on the size of Obama's lead when they count 'likely voters'...If you have never voted before, you're counted as unlikely to vote.
Obama WILL get enough votes to MANDATE change.
Posted by: oldwhiteguy | Oct 25, 2008 12:34:11 PM
michael master, you missed that part about George Bush and weapons of mass destruction in Iraq
Posted by: wha667 | Oct 25, 2008 2:35:27 PM
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