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What If the Polls Are Wrong?

November 03, 2008 8:22 PM

Cand_compare_080915_main There have been in the neighborhood of 159 national polls in the last six weeks.

Most of those polls have Barack Obama ahead of John McCain,  including our ABC News/Washington Post daily tracking poll, that has Obama comfortably ahead 53-44.

But what if the polls are wrong?

It's happened before.

Remember that famous Chicago Tribune newspaper headline "Dewey Defeats Truman" back in 1948?  But in that case, the last polls of the election had been completed in mid-October. Not on the eve of the election.

If it turns out that McCain wins tomorrow night in the face of so many polls that even at this late hour show Obama ahead comfortably, I think you have to say that the industry of political public opinion polling in this country will be shot.

They'll have to build from the ground up. People will have to rethink how they do this work.

The same thing will hold true for the political media.  We know that polls are just a snapshot in time.

But I think Americans will really questions what they're hearing from now on from the political media.

Probably even more important, if this happens tomorrow, I think a significant number of Americans will be in a state of political shock.

They may not believe what they're seeing tomorrow night.

Right now we're looking at polls where not only is Obama ahead nationally, he's ahead in the key states he needs to win.

Of course, anything can happen tomorrow. The media has had to eat crow on election night before.

But we've never really seen so much polling at this late date all pointing in the same direction.

--George Stephanopoulos

November 3, 2008 in Barack Obama, Democrats Vote 2008, John McCain, Republicans Vote 2008 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (629)

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"But we've never really seen so much polling at this late date all pointing in the same direction."

Never say never.

Posted by: mortimer snerd | Nov 3, 2008 8:29:35 PM

Vote wisely!

Which is better for our economy: Obama redistributing our wealth or McCain growing more wealth?

Obama will take more money from the Americans who already pay the great majority of income taxes and “spread the wealth” to many who don’t even pay taxes to begin with in the form of a government check. :(

Obama thinks it is his right to redistribute wealth, but it certainly isn’t the view of the average American worker, and it is obviously wrong.

McCain thinks the way for America to prosper is to leave Americans with more of their income, allowing them to do what they do best -- create the businesses, jobs, and opportunities that drive our vast economy.

Government has to be paid for, and that money comes from guys like Joe the plumber. Politicians can either bleed him dry to fund their programs, or they can encourage Americans to create more jobs and more wealth – and keep government limited and effective.
Obama does not include survivors of botched abortions in his "the least of these!" :)

It is your choice!

This former democrat and Hillary supporter voted for McCain/Palin 08! They are America's only choice for authentic reform! :)

Posted by: aware2u | Nov 3, 2008 8:32:05 PM

Vote wisely!

Which is better for our economy: Obama redistributing our wealth or McCain growing more wealth?

Obama will take more money from the Americans who already pay the great majority of income taxes and “spread the wealth” to many who don’t even pay taxes to begin with in the form of a government check. :(

Obama thinks it is his right to redistribute wealth, but it certainly isn’t the view of the average American worker, and it is obviously wrong.

McCain thinks the way for America to prosper is to leave Americans with more of their income, allowing them to do what they do best -- create the businesses, jobs, and opportunities that drive our vast economy.

Government has to be paid for, and that money comes from guys like Joe the plumber. Politicians can either bleed him dry to fund their programs, or they can encourage Americans to create more jobs and more wealth – and keep government limited and effective.

Obama does not include survivors of botched abortions in his "the least of these!" :)

It is your choice!

This former democrat and Hillary supporter voted for McCain/Palin 08! They are America's only choice for authentic reform! :)

Posted by: aware2u | Nov 3, 2008 8:33:43 PM

The only way McCain will win is if he wins the way Bush did- by cheating and stealing the election.

Posted by: TRUTH | Nov 3, 2008 8:34:12 PM

It doesn't matter if the polls are right or wrong. I am a USONIAN and In the end whom ever is elected President is our President. GOD Bless all of the USONSIANS and the USA.

Posted by: cony007 | Nov 3, 2008 8:37:04 PM

The polls suck !!!!!!!!!!!!!!
God bless America................

Posted by: Joey | Nov 3, 2008 8:39:25 PM

aware2u, stop trying to make yourself look bad.

Posted by: aware2uiswierd | Nov 3, 2008 8:41:44 PM

Who uses the term "USonian"?

Posted by: kbar13 | Nov 3, 2008 8:42:46 PM

If Obama loses tomorrow, I don't think it will be the media or the pollsters we will have to examine. It will be quite obvious there would be a problen in tallying ballots.
Say what you want about the Bradley effect. That happened 35 years ago and we didn't see it in the primaries. Why should we see it now.
Technology has brought our prediction capabilities much more accurate.
Don't blame the media or the pollsters. Blame our voting system.

Posted by: Wayne from Fullerton, CA | Nov 3, 2008 8:44:27 PM

aware2u--

Thanks for showing us a great example of a brain on McCain kool aid! :) And can you please explain your "survivors of botched abortions" line? I didn't get that one at all! :(

Posted by: dejune5678 | Nov 3, 2008 8:45:20 PM

The time has come for Americans to sweep away the far-right wing lunatic Christian nut jobs in the government who are hell-bent on stuffing their backwards views down our throats. We've had enough. The neo-cons have put us in a colossal mess and they need to pay by getting the hell out and staying out for good. All you cons care about is yourselves and the wealthy cronies. You don't give a hoot about your country. It's always, "Me! Me! Me!"

You far-right cons represent all that is unpleasant about human character: bigotry, ignorance, arrogance, mean-spiritedness, vindictiveness, dishonesty, lack of class, selfishness, lack of compassion, etc. Observing the way you've been running the various campaigns around the country, your true colors have shown right through. You have run this great country of ours into the ground with amazing incompetence and sown hatred across party and ideological lines. You'll be swept out and the rest of America will do whatever it can to keep you lunatics in your hole where you belong.

Posted by: Alex Khan | Nov 3, 2008 8:45:59 PM

I wish the wealth-haters would get it right. Tax breaks for the middle class is a good thing for stimulating the economy.

Let's also restore our 401Ks, retirement accounts and begin investing in the U.S. again (instead of allowing Cox to permit the short-sellers pillaging).

CNN, NY Times and USA today published the facts if you want to look that up. During the periods we had Democratic presidents, the stock market performed far better. CNN analysed the data from 1927 - 1999 and USA's data was from 1901 to 2004. The NY Times data was examined from 1929 - 2001.

CNN
---
2% gain = Republicans
11% gain = Democrats


USA Today
---------
6.9% gain = Republicans
13.3% gain = Democrats

NY Times
--------
0.4% gain = Republicans
8.9% gain = Democrats


Obama/Biden 08!

Posted by: Common Sense | Nov 3, 2008 8:50:22 PM

Just a reminder of the primary election in New Hampshire. The polls had Obama ahead but the media and pollsters had misjudged. Just remember that the media has been very biased in this election but the one thing they can't do is vote for us. They can lean the election in the direction they want but that is as far as they can go. When it comes time to vote, that is our own private and personal choice and we in this country think for ourselves. Obama's lead may not be as great as the polls are saying. There may be a surprise tomorrow night that is totally unexpected.

Posted by: dzwjno | Nov 3, 2008 8:52:45 PM

God bless President Obama.

Posted by: Julie | Nov 3, 2008 8:53:03 PM

How many ways can the Republicans steal the election... I'll bet they are counting the ways.

I am amazed that people with little education and minimum wage jobs think that the big money republicans have their interests at heart. And they get taken over and over.

Posted by: mr sleepy | Nov 3, 2008 8:54:00 PM

McCain will grow the wealth? Really!? How many of us are wealthy after 8 years of Republican policy? Feel rich yet? How much is left for any of us?

Posted by: davel54 | Nov 3, 2008 8:54:48 PM

Who knows how this election will go, some polls show obama up by 10 or more points some show them tied. I think we may see a very tight race if not tight then that will mean that McCain took it as Regan did in a landslide, I don't think that will happen. I don't think we will know who really won for a few days since some states my have to do a recount. The state I live in will not have to do a recount it will go McCain by 60 to 80%, but now we have to place our furture in the hands of places like San Franc-sicko that scare the hell out of me since the moral fiber of that city left many years ago and became a far left freak impound.

Posted by: Robert | Nov 3, 2008 8:56:55 PM

If the polls are wrong? Then America we have a problem. This country is very diverse with all races and colors. Now at the McCain rally you only see the color white and maybe some spec of other colors. Now at the Obama rallies you see all races and colors in an attendance. Now if McCain win can we honestly say that all those other races combined with the white race do not represent the majority of the voting public. If McCain win it just something wrong with that picture.

Posted by: attacked tired | Nov 3, 2008 8:57:23 PM

davel54- I for one have had a very good 8 years don't expect that to happen in the next 8 no matter who gets in. If McCAin gets in my business will maintain about the same or increase a little. If obama gets in then I will have to layoff a few people may all of them and bring the family in to do most of the work. To bad for the people they been with me for years but nothing you can do when the goverment starts taking your money you use to pay employees.

Posted by: Robert | Nov 3, 2008 8:59:39 PM

I'll keep my fingers crossed that this election is an honest one! I hope we have lots of folks at the election centers with cameras documenting all infractions. America can not endure another questionable election. Peace to all and see you at the polls. May the best man win. Go Obama!!!!

Posted by: bravebrick | Nov 3, 2008 9:01:08 PM

Oh Yes, McCaine/Palin are definitely America's only choice for authentic Downfall!

Posted by: Melvin | Nov 3, 2008 9:03:02 PM

Wisely???

You seriuous, the reason Obama want the middle class to get a break is so it would create more wealth.

But I guess its pointless to explain as most smart people vote for Obama.

Posted by: Matt | Nov 3, 2008 9:03:24 PM

If the Republicans can figure out a way to steal this election like they did in 2000, they will. And if Obama loses McCain will not be able to govern even if he does win legit. THe people won't trust him and the Democrats will tie him up. They will also being numerous investigations into the Bush administration. So George you had better hope McCain does not win.

Posted by: nick ames | Nov 3, 2008 9:03:27 PM

attacked tired - You got to ask youself a few question about the obama's rallys. Is it because he is having a rock singer before are after as he did in Germany and Denver or are they really there for him. I really question that with what I have read. McCain rallys, I don't think I have seen more than one or two on the news, they don't report stuff like that about McCain, it might help him and they don't want that. I will vote for McCain to protect the country. You vote who you think is best. The country will be split for the next 4 years if it is obama since most of us can not trust him at all and will not be able to turn our back on him at all.

Posted by: Robert | Nov 3, 2008 9:03:34 PM

This former Hillary Clinton Supporter will be voting for McCain/Palin tomorrow and we're gonna win! :)

Posted by: Amy-GA | Nov 3, 2008 9:03:51 PM

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