What If the Polls Are Wrong?

The early "Dewey" poll was also based on a biased sample. This was before we realize that polls are only accurate if EVERYONE has an equal opportunity for inclusion. That poll was based on subscribers to a magazine (I believe). Hardly close to representative (it was conservative leaning).

POTENTIAL distortions in Todays polls:
1) many don't poll cell-phone users, some information says they slightly prefer Obama

2) The "Likely" voter calculus. Republicans are typically more likely to vote than Dems - that's why Registered/adult based polls widely favor Obama. This is how we get house effects. This especially the case for black turnout estimates. This year will be different. I strongly doubt young people will have greater turnout than they usually do (they are under-represented).

3) The weighting of party identification. If a pollster uses party id figures from 2004 to weight repondents, this will likely result in a poll that underrepresents Obama supporters.

4) Then there's the "bradley" effect. If it exists, it helps McCain a bit.

I am sure the media is happy with their gratis campaign for Obama. The bastards at ABC are shameless. You hide the facts and even today you hide the coal industry destruction plan of Obama while he went and promised those poor folks the moon. George, you know about this don't you? http://www.ohiocoal.com/ WHY didn't you report on it???? You are one sorry piece of work with zero integrity.

aware2u- "redistributing the wealth" is a McCainism used to convince people that it is wrong to raise taxes on the wealthiest people and give tax breaks to the middle class. How he managed to convince working class people that is a bad thing to do, is beyond me. Of course he doesn't want the wealthy to be taxed more because HE is incredibly wealthy. And why would any middle class person think that getting a tax break is a bad thing and "socialist" or "redistributing"??? Bush gave the tax cuts to the wealthiest few and McCain went along with it. Obama wants to repeal those tax cuts and give the middle class a break. Did you think it was "socialism" to give those tax breaks to the wealthiest Americans and give the middle class nada? I do not get you or people like you. You don't make any sense at all. Of course, if you are one of those lucky few that is incredibly wealthy, then I get where you are coming from. But there are many wealthy people (Warren Buffet being one of them) that says he is willing to pay more taxes because that is fair and he should do his share to help the American economy by doing so. We all pay taxes, but the middle class carries an inordinate amount of the burden and Barack Obama thinks that is unfair. He wants to "spread the tax burden" equally. That is not "socialism" or "redistributing" or any of the other silly buzz words that McCain uses. It is just FAIR. TRUTH, pass it on.

Bill, McCain and Obama have roughly the same plan. But I'm sure you have no interest in the truth.

Tomorrow's results will be radically different than any of the polls thus far.

The polls are not accurately reflecting the split of "Hillary Democrats" that will be voting for McCain tomorrow.

The polls have not accurately estimated the turnout.

Speaking as an expert Bob? Most Hillary supporters are utterly repulsed by Republican Policies. Keep dreaming. You cannot wish away solid polling by fantasy. These people lose their livelihood if they don't deliver as accurate an estimate as they can.

Ask yourself this question in the voting booth: Will we be safer in the next 4 years with Obama or McCain?

Um, I confess ... I told a pollster I was voting for Obama when I knew I was going to cast a vote for McCain. I did tell the truth because of the way they asked the question almost trying to get me to say I was for Obama. I decided to give them what they wanted.

thorfin, I am sure you visited the link before posting to me. I would suggest reading it again and this time fathom it.

To whoever posted "McCain growing more wealth"

SillY Sarah is pregnant again!
Triplets!!! _ they are waiting to id the papa before releasing the medical records.

SillY Sarah for president!!! Why wait for 4 years or for (god forbid) MCCain to become incapacitated.
WRITE_IN SILLY SARAH for President on NOV 4th!!

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Speaking as an expert Bob? Most Hillary supporters are utterly repulsed by Republican Policies. Keep dreaming. You cannot wish away solid polling by fantasy. These people lose their livelihood if they don't deliver as accurate an estimate as they can.}}}}

As a former Hillary supporter & a first time voter I can tell you we are voting for McCain in large numbers, the polls don't want to show that. We feel Hillary was mistreated during the primaries and we did want to see her the first female President or VP. We'll settle for McCain Pres and Plain for VP because we want to see a woman in one of those positions.

I would bet every penney I have that aware2u has never voted democrat in his life. His comments, albeit inaccurate, aren't those of someone who ever leaned left of center. Why must the right wing lie to compete?

If the polls are wrong, then they are wrong. If he loses then the Dems will cry foul and wo is me crap they always pull. Come on people, stop accepting that the news media is right about everything. Get off your butts and do some research to find out the truth. Make a list of what is really important to you then see where each candidate stands on the issues. For a long time I thought I was a Democrat because my mother was a Democrat but I found out i leaned the other way. Stop drinking the kool aid and get informed!

Janice- your pants are on fire! No one here believes you lied to a pollster and told them you wanted Obama when you really secretly wanted McCain! Tsk, tsk. Now, go to your room!

What is the point of Stephanopoulos writing this speculative article? He cites 1948 which was 60 years ago... when this country still supported segregation ... a totally different electorate. Plus the technology of polling is better and better. He seems to be grabbing a vague scenario and running with it in a sort of blathering way. Typical of the level of
'analysis' we get from our TV commentator corps.

SillY Sarah is pregnant again!
Triplets!!! _ they are waiting to id the papa before releasing the medical records.

SillY Sarah for president!!! Why wait for 4 years or for (God forbid) MCCain to become incapacitated.
WRITE_IN SILLY SARAH for President on NOV 4th!!

When this country stops voting on abortion and guns as key issues, then we can move forward. I think I have the right to walk down the street without being shot dead more so than a person has the right to kill a defenseless animal. Want to hunt and kill? Go do it with your bare hands and then I'll show you some respect.

Janice: That's OK. They factor in GOP lies when they conduct the polling. The polls are accurate - for just that reason. People are sick of liars who play games while America hurts. We wont be walking down that road with you - you walk alone. Obama-Biden 08.

The polls are wrong. There is a higher hang up rate of 80% when it's usually 50%. This is likely McCain supporters hanging up because they're fed up with the biased media and print outlets. And PUMAs (former Hillary supporters voting for McCain) are intentionally telling pollsters they're voting for Obama when they're voting for McCain.

'What if'....'What if'....what if Palin had a brain...whAT IF.... AD INFINATUM.

How many ways can the Republicans steal the election... I'll bet they are counting the ways.

I am amazed that people with little education and minimum wage jobs think that the big money republicans have their interests at heart. And they get taken over and over.

Posted by: mr sleepy | Nov 3, 2008 8:54:00 PM
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This, I know there are ALOT of exceptions and the parties are changing but this is what it SHOULD be and how it basically is at its core (in early politics, the dem-like parties were the opposite of what the dems are now, vice versa for the republicans):

Dems are the party of the "little guy," big on economic intervention (higher minimum wage, affirmative action) but small on social intervention (abortion, legalizing drugs). They, more often than not, dislike war spending.

Reps are the party of the wealthy; big on social intervention (except, strangely, on gun rights), small on economic intervention (lower taxes, deregulation) They, more often than not, like war spending. No, they are NOT the party of SMALL spending ever since Reagan, both spend about equally.

I really don't understand why the Reps are supported by such low-income people when they clearly don't have their best interests at mind, well also the fact that lower-educated people support the reps isn't suprising...

Infact, how much money one makes isn't really that big of a factor in party preference as much as it should. What REALLY divides people is lifestyle. Those in rural America are MUCH more likely to be conservative than urban america. And yes, women are more for Dems, men for Reps, minorities for dems, and whites for reps, those are given.

Forty percent of Obama's vote will come from people who do not pay any taxes thus have little at stake except the free money he is promising. Wonder why they vote that way!

The country was much better off when only those who owned property and paid taxes could vote. They had a stake in their government.

TO the former Hillary Clinton Supporter who will be voting for McCain/Palin tomorrow and we're gonna win! :)

SillY Sarah for president!!! Why wait for 4 years or for (God forbid) MCCain to become incapacitated.
SIllY Sarah has active ovaries (Unlike Hillary!)
WRITE_IN SILLY SARAH for President on NOV 4th!!

clinton!!!!excuse me I MEAN MCCAIN ALL THE WAY!!!!!!

Vote wisely!! McCain is four more years of Bush, and we all know what a complete and utter Disaster Bush has been.