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Reporting and analysis from ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent and "This Week" Host George Stephanopoulos

George Stephanopoulos reports on events in politics, Congress and the White House for ABCNews, on the air and online. He interviews top newsmakers, discusses the events of the week and looks to the week ahead each Sunday on 'This Week.'

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How Snowe Will Vote

October 13, 2009 6:30 AM

No one (maybe not even the Senator) knows right now.

But here are my odds on what Olympia Snowe will do when Senate Finance Committee votes on health care today.

YES -- 45 percent -- Baucus, Reid and Obama have negotiated in good faith and incorporated many of her ideas. Voting yes keeps Snowe at the table and keeps Dems from moving immediately to reconciliation.

NO -- 40 percent -- Snowe is a Republican and she has to think about her base (Closed primaries in Maine).  And the best way to demonstrate she's serious about getting her way on the public option is by showing Dems now that they can't take her for granted.

PASS -- 15 percent -- The justification?  What everyone knows to be true: the bill will be rewritten by Harry Reid and the White House anyway. The best way to keep your options open is to keep your options open.

What do you think?

October 13, 2009 | Permalink | Share | User Comments (67)

User Comments

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I would reverse the 45 and 40 percent. Other than that minor tweak, I think you've got the odds pretty good. So much vilification -national vilification - will be piled on her if she votes yes.

Posted by: Ryan | Oct 13, 2009 7:29:36 AM

The Senators need to stop playing games. Its not about whose side wins. The U.S. has a lower infant survival rate and lower life spans than any other technologically advanced country. Both relate to access to affordable, quality health care. Every nation that is doing better than us has a national health plan. We need a strong public option now.

Posted by: Mark from atlanta | Oct 13, 2009 8:13:05 AM

Who cares??! She votes what she votes! You people are putting too much emphasis on one person as always. All for the sake of bipartisanship? PLEASE!! Snowe is not the going to be the redeemer of this bill. It still has a long way to go. The Baucus Bill is one of five and the merging of these bills will be the cliff hanger voting you people so desperately crave. So again...... who cares??

Posted by: alf | Oct 13, 2009 8:16:58 AM

Ryan | Oct 13, 2009 7:29:36 AM------ Well I guess you don't know whats going on in her home state with Wellpointe Insurance do you? As for national vilification, really? The majority of Americans want HCR. That said, ABC she is one vote! There is enough drama about whats going to happen without manufacturing some.

Posted by: Try the truth | Oct 13, 2009 8:31:37 AM

The Senate, both Dems & Reps, needs to remember that OUR taxes are paying for THEIR $503 annual healthcare premiums. That's right. $503 per year. Total. Can you get insurance at that low cost? Can you even GET insurance? I'll be watching the Senators to see who torpedos what the public wants and needs -- a public healthcare option. Too many Senators are in the pockets of the private insurers!!!

Posted by: mapjo11 | Oct 13, 2009 8:34:01 AM

"The Senate, both Dems & Reps, needs to remember that OUR taxes are paying for THEIR $503 annual healthcare premiums. That's right. $503 per year. Total. Can you get insurance at that low cost?"
mapjo11 | Oct 13, 2009 8:34:01 AM

You mean the Senate gets insurance through their employer? Wow. No one in America gets that perk. (Although their low co-pays would make you think they were under a union contract or something.)

Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 13, 2009 8:36:37 AM

""""The majority of Americans want HCR.""""

Posted by: Try the truth

You need to finish that sentence with "the majority of Americans do not approve of THIS health care bill". This bill does nothing to control actual health care costs, which directly affect our insurance premiums.

Posted by: lfrichar | Oct 13, 2009 8:40:09 AM

The yes or no will depend on how much pork barrel spending is in the health care reform bill.
I hope it's purely about health care reform and lowering medical cost this time with no pork additives in it. Please!
We the people will see soon.
We need a public option in the bill is the bottom line or it want be reform.

Posted by: Brendett NC | Oct 13, 2009 8:41:59 AM

""""The U.S. has a lower infant survival rate and lower life spans than any other technologically advanced country. Both relate to access to affordable, quality health care. """""

Posted by: Mark from atlanta

You are essentially blaming our infant survival rate and longevity on our quality of care? Proof? It is very possible our nations drug use and poor health habits are a major contributer to both issues. While it is convenient to blame it on our quality of care, we have the highest quality of care in the world. I have lived in 4 different countries with nationally run health care systems and they are not very impressive at all. The setting is usually a cement building with little furnishings and an environment not very suitable for health care. Money is put into machinery, but not infrastructure.

Posted by: lfrichar | Oct 13, 2009 8:46:20 AM

lfrichar | Oct 13, 2009 8:40:09 AM- You need to finish that sentence with "the majority of Americans do not approve of THIS health care bill". This bill does nothing to control actual health care costs, which directly affect our insurance premiums. ----------- Please remember this is not the final bill. If approved all the bills will be merged. Hopefully taking the best of each to make a final bill.

Posted by: Try the truth | Oct 13, 2009 8:47:23 AM

You need to finish that sentence with "the majority of Americans do not approve of THIS health care bill". This bill does nothing to control actual health care costs, which directly affect our insurance premiums.

Posted by: lfrichar | Oct 13, 2009 8:40:09 AM

----------------------------------

NO that is not ture they do not know what is in the bill unless they read them because the disinformation is being sent out by so many.

Plus I though Snowe was going to retire after her term is up.

Posted by: ant | Oct 13, 2009 8:47:45 AM

It's quite interesting.

Yesterday AHIP (paid for by the health insurance companies) suddenly saying they will raise rates faster if this passes. They claim the insurance companies will have to do this because not all Americans will be insured and penalties aren't severe enough.

They were fighting the public option and said it wasn't fair to require all Americans to be insured.

Ironically, I think Snowe will pass on voting, but when it hits the floor she will again pursue the trigger option. From what I understand of Snowe, she would rather do what's just than worry about politics.

Posted by: Juanita | Oct 13, 2009 8:51:00 AM

Mapjo, It is $503 per month not year. I have the same insurance.

Posted by: dsimms | Oct 13, 2009 8:51:16 AM

"It is very possible our nations drug use and poor health habits are a major contributer to both issues" - The fact that EVERY European country has a national health plan and EVERY one has a lower infant mortality rate and longer life spans than the U.S., which does not have a national health plan is a very strong correlation. As far as health habits, such as drug abuse making us less healthy - you must not have spent much time in Europe - they also have drug problems and the French smoke much more than we do. Stop blaming the victims for America's poor health outcomes, its a systemic problem.

Posted by: Mark from atlanta | Oct 13, 2009 9:00:34 AM

ROGULSKI: Why are you here?

WOMAN #1: To get some money.

ROGULSKI: What kind of money?

WOMAN #1: Obama money.

ROGULSKI: Where's it coming from?

WOMAN #1: Obama.

ROGULSKI: And where did Obama get it?

WOMAN #1: I don't know, his stash. I don't know. (laughter) I don't know where he got it from, but he givin' it to us, to help us.

WOMAN #2: And we love him.

WOMAN #1: We love him. That's why we voted for him!

WOMEN: (chanting) Obama! Obama! Obama! (laughing)

Posted by: Freedom | Oct 13, 2009 9:00:45 AM


ROGULSKI: Did you get an application to fill out yet?

WOMAN: I sure did. And I filled it out, and I am waiting to see what the results are going to be.

ROGULSKI: Will you know today how much money you're getting?

WOMAN: No, I won't, but I'm waiting for a phone call.

ROGULSKI: Where's the money coming from?

WOMAN: I believe it's coming from the City of Detroit or the state.

ROGULSKI: Where did they get it from?

WOMAN: Some funds that was forgiven (sic) by Obama.

ROGULSKI: And where did Obama get the funds?

WOMAN: Obama getting the funds from... Ummm, I have no idea, to tell you the truth. He's the president.

ROGULSKI: In downtown Detroit, Ken Rogulski, WJR News.

Posted by: Freedom | Oct 13, 2009 9:02:12 AM

It all depends on her buy-off price..... its quite obvious she sells her vote to the highest bidder...

Posted by: Vet197 | Oct 13, 2009 9:12:13 AM

Does anyone else think it's amazing that someone that looks like this has so much control over our lives?

Posted by: LongT | Oct 13, 2009 9:14:55 AM

The Republicans have shown themselves to be against anything the Dems are talking about and anything that the majority of American people want.
They are playing to their base which is very extreme now. They have pushed themselves in a corner and none of them will do the right thing. They do not care. They only care about destroying President Obama and the Dems. The sooner you understand this the sooner you realize that they don't give a care at all. The Dems in Congress need to go it alone and do the right thing. Down the road they will be heroes.

Posted by: DownriverDem | Oct 13, 2009 9:20:55 AM

"You need to finish that sentence with "the majority of Americans do not approve of THIS health care bill". This bill does nothing to control actual health care costs, which directly affect our insurance premiums."
lfrichar | Oct 13, 2009 8:40:09 AM

Do you have a poll on THIS health care bill, the Senate Finance Committee bill just released Oct 2 (with 2 pages of typo fixes and clarifications released Oct 5) - or are you lying?

If you are lying about the poll, I'd be inclined to assume you are lying about the rest too (particularly since the CBO disagrees).

Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 13, 2009 9:20:58 AM

"Does anyone else think it's amazing that someone that looks like this has so much control over our lives?"
LongT | Oct 13, 2009 9:14:55 AM

Does anyone else think it's amazing that ANY women vote for Republican party anymore?

Posted by: jhw539 | Oct 13, 2009 9:23:27 AM

Snowe says she favors limited government and fiscal responsibility.
Yet she voted for the stimulus bill and all the wasteful spending and, if she votes yes here, will be voting for the expansion of the federal government.
Not only that, if she votes yes on this bill, she will be voting to cut Medicare to seniors and to tax the middle class and sick(by making it harder for people to deduct medical expenses on their tax returns).
Snowe will lose the primary if she votes yes guaranteed. So I urge her to do what's best for the country and vote no on this abomination of a bill!!!

Posted by: ConstantXI | Oct 13, 2009 9:34:31 AM

jhw539; You're going to be soooo...... disappointed coming 2010. I think the indepsendents time has come.

Posted by: LongT | Oct 13, 2009 9:37:04 AM

Wow - who would have thought that a republican senator would have more power than the majority in the senate. There simply is no logic to that -- and shame on democrats for allowing it to happen!

Posted by: hank1056 | Oct 13, 2009 9:38:03 AM

Freedom, I appreciate and agree with your posting of an actual newsman interviewing people in Detroit waiting on their Obama money.ABC would never stoop so low as to report the actual news without their liberal spin put on it.ABC get with the program and report the news ,not your views.

Posted by: Johnny L | Oct 13, 2009 9:41:43 AM

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