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A Brawl in St. Paul

August 28, 2008 2:15 PM

With John McCain weighing a running mate who supports abortion rights, a revolt is brewing among his conservative base that includes a walkout at the Republican National Convention next week and a huge battle on the floor---especially if he selects Independent Democrat Joe Lieberman.

In addition to the expected brawl at the convention, major conservative donors who have planned to bankroll issue-oriented advertising and other grassroots efforts directed at social conservatives are putting their work on hold and will withdraw financial support, sources tell ABC News.

One conservative strategist characterized the prospect of a VP who supports abortion rights as a “disaster” for the Republican Party—and said selecting Lieberman would cost McCain the election. It would enrage conservatives, and prompt some Republicans to shift support to libertarian candidate Bob Barr, the strategist said. With the election so close, even a couple percentage points could make a difference.

McCain, who said in an interview this morning he has not decided on his pick, could announce his choice as early as tomorrow during a rally in Dayton, Ohio. But the timing of the announcement has not been finalized—and will not be settled until McCain makes his choice, sources tell ABC News. It could also occur on Saturday or closer to the opening of the convention next week.

Two abortion-rights contenders remain very much in the mix: Lieberman, who was Al Gore’s Democratic running mate in 2000, and former Pennsylvania Gov. Tom Ridge. Either would mark the first time in modern history that a VP candidate who openly supported abortion rights was on the Republican ticket.

McCain also is considering Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, a popular two-term governor in a moderate state who would bring blue-collar roots and Ronald Reagan conservatism to the ticket. The 47-year-old Pawlenty is, in many ways, the conservative version of Obama, but with real executive experience: same age, similar backgrounds, law school education and careers in public service. As governor, he balanced the state’s budget by freezing spending and implemented conservative programs and legislation, including waiting periods for abortion.

McCain also is considering his former bitter rival Mitt Romney, a multimillionaire businessman who would bring economic experience, but who also was harshly criticized by the Arizona senator and social conservatives alike during the primaries. Romney was seen as flip-flopping on key social issues, including abortion, in a perceived effort to pander to the base. Moreover, Democrats already are painting Romney, with his $30 million in residential real estate and off-shore tax havens, as elitist and out of touch with everyday Americans.

As McCain contemplates his choices, he is deciding between the conventional conservatives like Pawlenty and Romney and the two moderate-to-liberal abortion-rights contenders--who could perhaps open the party to Democratic voters who backed Hillary Clinton in the primaries.

Before the Democratic Convention, polls showed that 30 percent of Clinton’s 18 million votes were up for grabs--those voters had not decided whether to shift their support to Barack Obama. The McCain campaign has aggressively courted those voters with a series of television ads throughout the Democratic convention.

Ridge and Lieberman, it’s believed, could appeal to some of those voters. Ridge would help in Pennsylvania, a key swing state. And Lieberman would enforce McCain’s reputation as a political maverick who has a history of building bipartisan coalitions.

Both men are close friends with McCain and have appeared frequently on the campaign trail with him, and both share his views on national security.

And both would trigger a brawl at the convention next week in St. Paul, Minnesota—the likes of which hasn’t been seen at a Republican gathering since the 1964 nomination of Barry Goldwater, the last Arizona senator to be the party’s standard-bearer.

“I see a fight at the convention over either,” said Phyllis Schlafly, president of the Eagle Forum.

The choice of Lieberman would trigger an all-out war. Although he supports the war in Iraq and is therefore considered by some to be a “moderate,” he has liberal views on social issues deeply important to the Republican base. He has taken positions at odds with the Party on gun control, tax cuts, gay rights, abortion and the Supreme Court—including voting against Justice Samuel Alito.

“There would be a major revolt if it were Lieberman,” said Schlafly. “I just do not believe the Republican convention would nominate Lieberman. I just don’t think they would accept it, no mater if McCain wanted it.”

Ridge, too, would also trigger a fight because of his support for abortion rights, although he is more conservative on other issues important to the base.

Charmaine Yoest, president and CEO of Americans United for Life, said either pick would be deeply disappointing for the anti-abortion base—and would bring disarray to the convention next week.

“There’s been a lot of talk about what kind of response there would be. The worst thing that you can have at a convention--that’s supposed to be a party--is to have people anxious to leave. You’d see people who weren’t willing to wave signs. You’ll see people sitting on their hands, looking at their watches and real, real disappointment."

Yoest said the anti-abortion movement was energized after McCain’s “strong performance” talking with evangelical leader Rick Warren at his Saddleback Church and were pleased with the strong anti-abortion platform the delegates had just approved.

“There’s an expectation of wanting to see the platform and the ticket match---and for there to be the same enthusiastic commitment to life,” she said. “The mental image of placards being handed out at the convention for a candidate who stands for abortion-- instead of life--just doesn’t work.”

No modern Republican presidential nominee has ever campaigned with a running mate who openly supports abortion rights. In 1980, Ronald Reagan tapped George H.W. Bush as VP, despite Bush’s past opposition to a constitutional amendment banning abortion—but not until Bush agreed to fully embrace an anti-abortion agenda.

“It would be a terrible mistake. Every one of our nominees has been pro-life,” Schlafly said. “It’s sticking his finger in face of the pro-life constituency to pick someone who isn’t pro-life.”

Although Ridge has indicated in recent interviews that he would support McCain’s policies, he has not said he would repudiate his views on abortion. Lieberman not even conceded that---he has been a strong advocate of abortion rights, repeatedly earning a 100 percent approval rating from abortion rights groups.

Social conservatives are now planning their strategy to block either potential pick.
One possible strategy is a revolt by some of the 18 state delegations who supported either Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee—and who have not yet turned over to McCain.

Those delegations could—and sources say, likely would--revolt against Leiberman and put in their own recommendation. In the nomination process, a candidate needs five delegations supporting the nomination.

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