LIVE ELECTION NIGHT BLOG

November 04, 2008 6:21 PM

1:37 am ET: Based on exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects McCain will win Alaska.

1:22 am ET: Martin Luther King III, human rights activist: “I think my dad and my mom are looking down on us with great big smiles on their faces... This was a monumental occasion for our nation tonight and perhaps even for the world because the world will look at us differently now... Quite frankly, the challenges will be insurmountable... But often where there are great challenges there are also great opportunities.”

1:20 am ET: People are spontaneously going out into the streets in Washington D.C. and across the country to celebrate Obama's victory.

12:59 am ET: Per ABC News’ Dana Hughes in Kenya: Kenyans are ecstatic about the election results and the president has even declared a national holiday tomorrow. People are singing and dancing. They really feel Obama is as much their president as that of the United States. There was skepticism all the way until the end that Obama would win, but Kenyans think that not only does this give hope to U.S. but also to Kenya.

12:50 am ET: Hundreds of Obama supporters are streaming down Pennsylvania Avenue. In downtown Washington D.C., people are dancing in the streets, waving flags and honking horns.

12:47 am ET: ABC News projects that Democrats will gain between 22 and 26 seats in the House.

12:17 am ET: "The new dawn of American leadership" was a key phrase. As Sam Donaldson said, Obama's acceptance speech was reminiscent of Kennedy's inaugural address in many ways.

12:03 am ET: "It's been a long time coming," Obama says. "Change has come to America."

Indeed it has -- a tremendous night. Whatever your political inclinations, the history here is mind-boggling. Beholding that new first family, President-Elect Barack Obama -- I mean, has there ever been a less likely path to the White House?

11:45 pm ET: John K. Wilson, Obama Biographer: "He (Obama) really has created a mandate for this election. People underestimated him many times before and have been proven wrong."

11:43 pm ET: ABC News' Sunlen Miller reports that Obama's motorcarde is en route to Grant Park now and he will speak in about 15 minutes.

11:35 pm ET: Based on exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects Obama will win Nevada.

11:31 pm ET: Based on exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects McCain will win Arizona, his home state.

11:23 pm ET: Talk about setting a tone -- poetic words from Mark Salter.

McCain: “These are difficult times for our country, and I pledge to him to do all in my power to help him lead us through the many challenges we face.”

“Whatever our differences we are fellow Americans, and please believe me when I say, no association has ever meant more to be than that.”

11:20 pm ET: This is a very gracious move by Sen. McCain -- coming out shortly after Obama went over the top.

11:18 pm ET: ABC News' Jackie Hyland: 55 percent of white voters said they voted for John McCain. 96 percent of black voters who went to the polls today said they voted for Barack Obama. 67 percent of the Hispanic vote went to Barack Obama. 80 percent of voters said candidates’ race was not a factor.

11:18 pm ET: Based on exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects Obama will win Florida.

11:14 pm ET: Based on exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects Obama will win Colorado.

11:08 pm ET: Per ABC News' Eric Horng: There were 50,000 people in Grant Park waiting for Obama to speak, and more than 30,000 nearby. But that was an hour ago and the numbers have continued to swell since then as everyone waits for Obama to speak.

11:05 pm ET: It's just now that we feel confident to project Virginia, but based on exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects Obama will win Virginia.

11:02 pm ET: We are looking at an overwhelming majority of electoral votes for Obama, even though we have yet to see results from some states, including Florida. But this is really a historic election and in many ways, not a surprise. In about an hour, we can expect to see Obama address his supporters in Grant Park.   

11:01 pm ET: ABC News projects a total of 284 electoral votes for Obama and 145 for McCain.

11:00 pm ET: Based on the exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects Obama will win California, Oregon, Washington and Hawaii. ABC News projects he will be the 44th president of the United States.

10:47 pm ET: Rep. Tom Cole (R-Ok) said that he sees a strong Republican party after the elections. “We’ll have a little bit of soul-searching and reflection... You ought to when you lose, but I think it’s not a cause to lose... I think it’s time to hold our opponents accountable for how they govern. If they reach the middle and work with us, that will be to their advantage.. We will see a much stronger Republican showing in 2010 than we did in 2004 and 2008.”

10:40 pm ET: Based on the exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects McCain will win South Dakota. That brings the total to 207 electoral votes for Obama and 141 for McCain.

10:35 pm ET: David Drucker, staff writer, Roll Call: “When economy is that big of an issue, the incumbent party usually loses the White House… I don’t think we can overstate the extent to which the Republican brand has been damaged by George Bush according to how voters look at it. Barack Obama has run a masterful campaign, but it’s not as though he came in a picture as 'the guy that blows everyone away.' Barack Obama exploited that damage.”

10:32 pm ET: This is the Bush legacy -- ABC News polls show that nationwide, 40 percent of people identify with the Democratic party and 32 percent with Republicans.

10:26 pm ET: Based on the exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects McCain will win Nebraska. That brings the total projected electoral votes to 207 for Obama and 138 for McCain.

10:18 pm ET: Floyd Abrams, Constitutional Law Attorney, on what would Obama do about judges if he were to become president: “He knows this stuff. I think that he will likely -- if one can guess -- not just pick judges, I think he might pick a professor or a practicing lawyer, which we could use on the court. I think from a more liberal perspective, election of Senator Obama would more save the court then change it.”

10:08 pm ET: ABC News' Jackie Hyland: In Arizona, 57 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of John McCain. The Hispanic vote was up 4 points from 2004 to 16 percent. In New Mexico, 40 percent of voters were Hispanic. Obama lost the Hispanic vote in the primary but he didn’t have problem winning it today in New Mexico.

10:06 pm ET: ABC News is projecting that Democrats will retain control of the House of Representatives and gain seats.

10:00 pm ET: In Iowa, ABC News projects Obama will win. This is a state President Bush carried in 2004 and McCain had to hold on to have a real shot. In Utah, ABC News projects McCain will win. The new total of projected votes in the electoral college: 207 for Obama, 135 for McCain.

9:57 pm ET: Things are very much in Sen. Obama's favor right now. Big states like Ohio and Pennsylvania are falling to him and he is starting to build a commanding lead. Sen. McCain will have to pull off a serious upset to have a shot at this. So far, 200 electoral votes for Obama and 130 for McCain.

9:50 pm ET: Based on the exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects McCain will win Mississippi. Not a surprise there.

9:47 pm ET: Tom Moe, former Vietnam POW with McCain: “The whole mood has been one of we can win this. Any other candidate wouldn’t have even been in this race by this time. It’s because of McCain that we remain optimistic. We will remain loyal to him just as he has been to this country.”

9:41 pm ET: Based on the exit polls and analysis of the vote so far, ABC News projects McCain has won Texas.

9:40 pm ET: Per ABC News' Jackie Hyland: 61 percent of voters in Ohio said economy was the most important issue. 56 percent said they are very worried about the economy. 71 percent of voters said they disapprove of President Bush’s job over the last four years. 56 percent said they decided to vote before October. It seems like they made up their mind quite some time ago.

9:38 pm ET: Faye Wattleton, president, Center for the Advancement of Women: The numbers prove that we can be comfortable with someone other than a white man for president. Obama’s ability to speak across many platforms and to young voters has made a huge difference.

9:37 pm ET: With New Mexico also falling to Obama, it's getting nearly impossible for Team McCain to pull off.

9:31 pm ET: Based on our projections, Obama has 195 electoral votes so far and McCain has 90.

9:30 pm ET: Based on the exit poll and our analysis of the vote in so far, ABC News projects that in the Presidential race, McCain will win West Virginia and Louisiana.

9:26 pm ET: Ohio is as big a win as it can get for Obama and puts him in a strong position. It means not just a victory, but it means a very big victory. So far, Obama has 195 electoral votes and McCain has McCain. This is a symbolic victory because no Republican has been elected to the White House without winning Ohio, where economy was a very significant factor. This is also a state where Obama lost to Sen. Hillary Clinton.

9:23 pm ET: ABC News projects Ohio will go to Obama and all four electoral votes in Maine.

9:22 pm ET: Celinda Lake, democratic political strategist: “Obama is the first president of a new generation, he’s not a baby boomer president. He ran the first modern campaign of the twenty-first century and he has a world vision which is very very strong. Generation Y is deeply in debt and without jobs, and his economic message has had a lot of appeal to that cohort.”

9:15 pm ET: We are projecting that Republican Mitch McConnell will defeat Democrat Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky.

9:09 pm ET: ABC News' Jackie Hyland: 79 percent of voters said that things in the U.S. are headed in the wrong track. 52 percent say they are worse off than they were in 2004. 63 percent said they disapprove of the war in Iraq. 72 percent disapprove of the way President Bush has done his job. The high disapproval numbers could be one of the reasons why we haven't seen President Bush at all in the heat of this humid campaign.

9:08 pm ET: So far, 55 seats for Democrats in the Senate and 34 for Republicans.

9:07 pm ET: Our projections show that Obama has a total of 174 electoral votes and McCain has 61 electoral votes. A total of 270 is needed to win presidency.

9:03 pm ET: Per ABC News' Vinnie Malhotra, Oprah Winfrey has just arrived at the Grant Park location. As she passed through security (surrounded by multiple cameras) she was overheard saying, "I am vibrating."

9:00 pm ET: Based on exit polls, we project that Obama will win New York as expected, Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Rhode Island and McCain will win Georgia, Kansas, North Dakota and Wyoming.

8:58 pm ET: Wow -- in Massachusetts, people voted by a 2-1 margin for higher taxes -- against a repeal of the income tax. Remarkable.

8:38 pm ET: Lynette Clemetson, managing editor of theroot.com: “The overall story is the turnout overall, and so while you have a portion of the black electorate that has been extremely energized I don’t know yet whether it will turn up overall numbers… I think we are going to see, with all segments of voters, that the economy trumped race in a lot of ways tonight… This will be a race that makes us challenge a lot of assumptions we have about race.”

8:35 pm ET: ABC News' Jackie Hyland: 53 percent of white women voted for Obama in Pennsylvania. The time and money Obama's campaign spent in Pennsylvania seems to be paying off for them.

8:31 pm ET: Another big victory for the Democrats -- In the state of North Carolina, little-known Democrat Kay Hagan has defeated Senator Elizabeth Dole, wife of former Senate minority leader Bob Dole. Elizabeth Dole ran an ad that implied her opponent did not believe in God, which Sam Donaldson believes acted against her. Dole did not think she had a serious race on her hand until very late. One key factor that helped Hagan is the battered North Carolina economy.

8:29 pm ET: ABC News projects McCain will win Arkansas and Alabama. That brings the total to 49 electoral votes for McCain and 102 electoral votes for Obama.

8:25 pm ET: Some more projections -- Democratic governor candidate Jay Nixon will beat the Republicans in Missouri. In New Hampshire, the very popular Democratic governor John Lynch will win reelections. In Delaware, the projected winner is Democrat Jack Markell, which is critical because he will have a lot of say on who fills Joe Biden's Senate seat.

8:22 pm ET: Per ABC News' Dan Harris, the McCain campaign disputes ABC's projection in Pennsylvania.

8:12 pm ET: ABC News' Jackie Hyland Reports: In Pennsylvania, 83 percent of voters said race was not an important factor.

8:10 pm ET: Crystia Freeland makes an interesting point -- Had the country not experienced an economic downturn, would we have seen these numbers, especially in Pennsylvania, tip in Obama's favor?

8:05 pm ET: Based on the exit polls, we project that Obama will win Connecticut, Delaware, District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey and Pennsylvania. McCain will win Oklahoma and Tennessee.

8:00 pm ET: A huge projection at 8 pm -- Pennsylvania goes for Obama. You just heard a big deflation in McCain's world -- this takes so many paths to 270 off the table for him...

7:51 pm ET: In Virginia, there are almost 500,000 new registered voters and that's remarkable. It's astounding to see a 10 percent jump in the number of registrants. As Lynn Sanders, associate professor at University of Virginia, said, she remembers a time when in Virginia, people could hardly notice a presidential election was going on. "It's the new dominion now." According to Chrystia Freeland, U.S. Managing Editor at the Financial Times: "Virginia has shifted from being a southern state to Mid-Atlantic state, and that's really significant."

7:33 pm ET: Based on preliminary exit poll results, ABC News projects that incumbent Governor Joe Manchin will win in West Virginia, and Democrat Jay Rockefeller will take West Virginia Senate seat.

7:30 pm ET: The polls have closed in West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina -- the last two being very important states -- but we do not have enough information yet to make projections for those states.

7:18 pm ET: In Indiana, ABC News can project that Republican Governor Mitch Daniels will win the re-election.

7:14 pm ET: I'm struck by some dogs that haven't barked -- the national exit polls have the portion of the black vote up just two points, from 11 in 2004 to 13 in 2008. Similar numbers among younger voters. They turned out -- but not in overwhelming, ground-shifting numbers.

7:11 pm ET: ABC News projects Democrat Mark Warner will win Virginia Senate seat.

7:05 pm ET: Based on preliminary exit polls, 75 percent of the people who went to polls today were white, down from 77 percent in 2004. 13 percent of those who voted were black, up from 11 percent in 2004. About 17 percent of those who voted today were between the ages of 18 and 29. The results also show that 11 percent of those who voted were first-time voters, and those numbers did not change significantly.

7:00 pm ET: The polls have closed in six states. Based on exit polls, ABC News projects that Sen. John McCain will win in Kentucky (eight electoral votes) and Sen. Barack Obama will win in Vermont (three electoral votes). We do not have enough information to project in Georgia, Indiana and South Carolina.

6:43 pm ET: What does voter outreach mean? Well -- a few nuggets from the preliminary exit polls in Virginia tell that story.

Courtesy of ABC polling director Gary Langer: According to the preliminary exits, 51 percent of voters say they were personally contacted by an Obama campaign worker; 37 percent were contacted by the McCain campaign.

This is the kind of number that looked much different four years ago, when all the commentary was about the Republicans’ “72-hour” voter contact/get-out-the-vote program.

And the top issue? 59 percent say the economy. Iraq is a distant No. 12, at 12 percent, followed by energy policy (10 percent), terrorism (9 percent), and health care (7 percent).

6:05 pm ET: Rick Klein here from ABC’s The Note -- we start live on ABC NewsNOW (me and Sam Donaldson) starting at 7 pm ET.

Click HERE to watch our livestream -- and be part of the conversation all night on this blog.

A quick note on what I’m watching for early tonight: Much of the story of the election might be told in just two states, both of which close their polls early.

If Virginia (polls close 7 pm ET) goes Obama, look for a big Obama night. That’s a key test of whether demographics is destiny, and of whether black voters and young voters come out in the sort of numbers the Obama campaign expects. If he wins there, he takes away McCain’s very limited wiggle room.

But if Pennsylvania (polls close 8 pm ET) goes McCain, McCain has options tonight. This is a big electoral pick-up (21 votes) that can balance out losses elsewhere. If Obama takes the Keystone State early, he’s locked in the Kerry states in all likelihood -- then he can depend on pickups out west to put him over 270.

What are you looking for tonight?

November 4, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (324) | TrackBack (0)

MoveOn.org Plans Continued Pro-Obama Push

November 04, 2008 1:23 PM

From ABC’s Rick Klein, author of The Note.

Welcome back to the live blog -- I’ll be blogging here all day for Election Day -- leading up to our coverage on ABC NewsNOW tonight, starting at 7 pm ET. The live feed of our coverage, featuring me and Sam Donaldson from New York, will be available online at ABCNews.com/politics.

One of the most fascinating questions for an Obama administration to answer -- if, indeed, there is an Obama administration to talk about after tonight -- is what he’ll do with the activist army that’s signed on to his cause.

One big segment of that army is already figuring out what it plans to do for Obama -- again, with the important caveat that first he has to win the election.

I spoke with Eli Pariser, the executive director of MoveOn.org, about what they’ve done for Obama during the election, plus what’s next.

Pariser said he plans to put the 4.3 million members of his organization to work on behalf of a President Obama -- even if that will mean, at times, taking on Democratic leaders in Congress.

"We may be able to do some things that Obama, playing the delicate, inside game of winning votes handshake by handshake, may not be able to do," Pariser said. "It’s an extraordinary opportunity... There’s an alignment on what we want to accomplish, and what the people in the Obama movement want to accomplish. I expect we’ll be working shoulder-to-shoulder with them."

This represents something of a rethinking of the MoveOn.org mission. Founded in 1998, in a grass-roots effort to get the country to "move on" from President Bill Clinton’s impeachment inquiry, the group has defined itself as an outside voice, not an inside player.

But starting in February, with MoveOn’s decision to endorse Obama in the Democratic primary -- the group’s first presidential endorsement -- an important transition began.

In one little-noticed move, MoveOn.org effectively merged its organizing operations and get-out-the-vote projects with the Obama campaign’s. Rather than running parallel GOTV campaigns, like the group did in 2004 and 2006, MoveOn worked in tandem with the campaign.

Pariser said MoveOn dedicated roughly 15 staffers to a legally separate operation -- similar to the way unions and the national parities set up "independent expenditure" arms -- primarily to handle online organizing geared toward boosting Obama’s prospects.

More importantly, the group directed as many as 600,000 volunteers to the Obama campaign, Pariser said. He said the group spent nearly $30 million to help elect Obama.

Pariser said he thinks it’s critical for Obama, if he wins, to utilize the people who have invested in his campaign.

"It’s incredibly important that they take what they built forward," he said.

A continued alignment with MoveOn.org and groups brings some political risk to Obama. He seems inclined to govern from the center, and he’ll have millions of supporters pulling him to the left.

If those supporters are noisy about it, he may antagonize the congressional leaders who hold the keys to actually enacting his agenda. And those supporters may end up getting noisy about their disagreements with Obama, too, particularly if his plans to withdraw troops from Iraq get delayed in any way.

Pariser said he sees an opportunity for partnership -- while cautioning that his members will stick by their beliefs.

"If Obama wins, fundamentally his organization will be driven from the White House -- it can’t not be. That’s good, that’s important. But it’s different than an organization like MoveOn, which is driven by members toward the White House," he said. "They may converge in the same place, but they come from different places."

What do you think?

-- Rick Klein

November 4, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (71) | TrackBack (0)

LIVE DEBATE BLOG

October 15, 2008 9:05 PM

10:35 pm ET: Obama also closes well.  A strong debate all around -- for both candidates, Bob and Joe.  Believe it or not, the next stop for the live blog is November 4 -- Election Day.  We'll see you then -- when the polls, debates, and pundits make way for your votes.  We eagerly await your decision.

10:29 pm ET: The "long line of McCains" mark a slightly emotional, and probably effective, close.

No big slips for Obama -- measured against that standard, another great night for him.

I'm wishing we had had three debates this good -- maybe Joe the Plumber should have been called a few weeks ago . . .

10:23 pm ET: McCain gets a voucher plug in too, just for good measure.

And wow this has been a really interesting debate. If this had been the first, and not the third, I could see more impact for McCain. Plenty of distinctions drawn this evening.

10:20 pm ET: From ABC's Teddy Davis: McCain was wrong to state that small businessman "Joe the Plumber" would end up paying a fine if he refused to provide his workers with health insurance under Barack Obama's health-care plan.

Under the Obama plan, small businesses are exempted from a requirement imposed on large companies that they contribute to a national health fund if they fail to make "a meaningful contribution" to their employees' health care costs.

10:18 pm ET: The post-debate polls should be fascinating. My sense is that McCain has done much of what he needed to do tonight -- that may not matter for the race, but it's a key hurdle. If the polls show a big Obama win -- that's telling in itself.

10:12 pm ET: McCain: "I don't know how you vote present on something like that." He's painting the portrait tonight . . .

Obama's response on the "life-saving treatments" question just missed the mark, it seems to me.

10:09 pm ET: If you're curious about Joe the plumber, my ABC colleague Jake Tapper did a thorough write-up of the exchange he had with Obama yesterday.

10:06 pm ET: Almost a really interesting Roe v. Wade answer. "I would never . . . " impose a litmus test, McCain says. He didn't follow with the typical code words a conservative candidate gives. Instead, he turns to the Gang of 14.

Sen. Obama most definitely did not vote against Justice Breyer. He was not in the Senate at the time. Clearly Obama misspoke.

10 pm ET: ABC's Matt Jaffe notes that Joe Biden likes to call John McCain's healthcare plan "cockamamie." Biden has recently argued that Petraeus - despite not saying as much - has essentially implemented Biden's Iraq outline. (Which was NOT a partition of the country, for the record.)

9:57 pm ET: Noticing the eyes -- McCain looking right at the camera as he explains his plans, McCain looking at the moderator. A little thing that helps Sen. Obama look presidential. John McCain only looks at the camera when he talks to Joe the plumber (who has officially gotten way too much air time).

Sen. Obama's plan is NOT single-payer.

9:51 pm ET: Drilling is a McCain comfort zone -- and he gets at it by attacking Obama's "words."

He's painting a broad portrait, without saying the words, that you just can't trust Barack Obama -- that his promise is based on something false, or at least faulty.

9:49 pm ET: More than halfway home -- clearly McCain isn't afraid of being aggressive, seated at a table or no.

9:48 pm ET: From ABC's Bret Hovell: By bringing out Bill Ayers and ACORN, John McCain makes an effort to placate those conservative voters who are frustrated that he has not been hard enough on Barack Obama - like the ones who on Friday confronted McCain at a town hall meeting in Minnesota. This feels like it could be a direct response to the five or so people who begged McCain to "take the gloves off."

9:44 pm ET: Obama: "If we have an across-the-board spending freeze, we're not going to" be able to expand autism research.

McCain attacks Biden in a way that Obama didn't attack Palin. "Cockamamie idea"! Don't tell me John McCain wasn't ready to mix it up with lines like that.

Big Obama smile on the cutaway shot while McCain attacks on spending.

9:43 pm ET: McCain on Palin: "She's a reformer through and through." "She'll be my partner." But wasn't the question what happens if her partner, um, can't serve?

9:40 pm ET: An odd cut on the running-mate question. But Obama uses it to build up Biden -- continuing the strategy of pretending as if Sarah Palin does not exist.

9:39 pm ET: I'm still perplexed about this "all the facts need to come out" thing from the McCain campaign. Why not make it about the substance, not alleged cover-ups?

9:35 pm ET: HERE COMES AYERS -- and ACORN too. Wrapped in a Hillary Clinton mention. "All of these things need to be examined," McCain says.

The response: "Forty years ago, when I was eight years old, he engaged in despicable acts . . . I have roundly condemned those acts." Obama lays out the relationship like he typically does. And ACORN had "nothing to do with us."

I'm not sure how to score this one -- but it's a measure of the McCain campaign that so much is pinned to these two factoids.

9:33 pm ET: McCain: "I'm proud of the people that come to our rallies." (That was another Ayers opportunity he didn't take, by the way.)

This is a lot of time McCain is taking on the Lewis thing.

9:30 pm ET: "Senator Obama is spending unprecedented . . . amounts of money on negative attack ads on me," McCain says. That will not make them stop, or get him much in the way of sympathy. "I did not hear a repudiation of Congressman Lewis." (That's because there wasn't one.)

Also -- is it weird that Obama said a few times "your running mate," but didn't mention Sarah Palin? "I do think that he inappropriately drew a comparison," he says, finally, on Lewis.

9:28 pm ET: No surprise that they both use a question about tone to complain about the other side. Strikes me though that they both missed an opportunity to lower the temperature in a statesmanlike way.

And so the attacks will continue.

9:26 pm ET: Say it to his face, Schieffer says. "I regret some of the negative aspects of both campaigns," McCain said. But instead of then saying it to his face -- he attacks Rep. John Lewis, which is legit, sure. But he did NOT jump at the opening this provided to the Bill Ayers issue.

9:24 pm ET: From ABC's Teddy Davis: During tonight's debate, McCain said that Hillary Clinton proposed the same kind of mortgage buy-up plan that he did.
This is not true.
While Clinton has proposed directly helping homeowners by having the government buy and resell mortgages that are in danger of foreclosure, her proposal would force financial institutions to take a loss.
The McCain proposal, by contrast, is more generous to financial institutions and more costly for taxpayers.

9:23 pm ET: "When it comes to economic policies, essentially what you are proposing is eight more years of the same thing," Obama says.

9:20 pm ET: Obama was asked for specific cuts and he talks "new direction."

McCain: "If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run for president four years ago." Clearly he had that one ready -- a good line, easily cuttable into a soundbite.

But McCain is still saying he'd balance the budget within four years? This is silliness, and I think McCain knows it. I look forward to his campaign explaining how, exactly, he'll do this while extending the Bush tax cuts and funding bailouts.

9:17 pm ET: First mention of Hillary Clinton belongs to McCain. But then he starts talking energy independence and a whole bunch of other stuff? What does that have to do with a spending freeze (and didn't he just spend that $300 billion)? This response has the Palin problem -- lots of words, tumbling over each other. "A half a trillion dollars we owe China." Earmarks too in this answer. Over-eager tonight?

9:15 pm ET: Seems to me that the off-the-bat skirmish fell along rather predictable lines. That's all well and good -- but predictable is not great for John McCain, who needs more than Joe the plumber to un-clog the race.

9:11 pm ET: Joe the plumber wins the debate so far. McCain: "I want Joe the plumber to spread the wealth around." But then he said the whole premise of Obama's plan was "spread the wealth around"? Anyone else lost on that one?

And maybe enough of "Joe the plumber."

Also -- ABC's Jake Tapper notes that he got the last name wrong. It's Joe WurzelBACHER. Not Joe WurzelBURGER

9:08 pm ET: Think McCain had this one ready to go? Even remembered the guy's last name. "Joe was trying to realize the American Dream." McCain talking right to Joe: "I'll keep your taxes low. . . . I will not stand for a tax increase." (That's a real important distinction for him to draw -- if he loses the tax argument, he loses the election.)

9:06 pm ET: Sen. Obama also gets specific right away -- looking right to the camera with his bailout package for the middle class. And if you're looking for the first candidate to draw a distinction tonight, it's Obama, not McCain.

9:03 pm ET: "Americans are hurting right now, and they're angry." Populist tone out of the bat for McCain. "New direction." And an immediate turn to Fannie and Freddie -- obscure stuff, still, but the right gets really energized blaming Democrats for this. McCain carves out the $300 billion from the $700 billion -- that's a bit of a shift. Like the previous debates, McCain goes from broad to specific right away.

During tonight's debate, McCain said that Hillary Clinton proposed the same kind of mortgage buy-up plan that he did.
This is not true.
While Clinton has proposed directly helping homeowners by having the government buy and resell mortgages that are in danger of foreclosure, her proposal would force financial institutions to take a loss.
The McCain proposal, by contrast, is more generous to financial institutions and more costly for taxpayers.

October 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (2224) | TrackBack (0)

Live Video Coverage of Debate

October 15, 2008 7:11 PM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. -- Our live coverage of the debate, with me and Sam Donaldson, starts with a preview show at 8 pm ET.

Click HERE for video via ABC NewsNOW.

And check back to this blog at debate time for running commentary. . . .

-- Rick Klein

October 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (97) | TrackBack (0)

Richardson: Obama Expecting 'Erratic' McCain Attacks

October 15, 2008 7:04 PM

Per ABC's Sunlen Miller, Gov. Bill Richardson, D-N.M., offers this piece of spin (and notice the word "erratic," since you will see it again): "We're expecting that McCain is going to try to get a game changer – try to hit a homerun by being negative. And Obama is going to respond in a very positive way about the economy, about health care, about America’s role overseas. That’s the difference between the two candidates."

"Sen Obama's main challenge is to do as well as he did in the other debates, talk about the issues, be bipartisan, appear calm and knowledgeable, and not erratic like Sen McCain and talk about the economy. The economy. The economy."

"Sen Obama is not overconfident. He is working hard to get every vote. This race is not over. It looks good and we're getting great movement in battleground states. I think the American people are seeing Sen Obama as the positive candidate, the unifying candidate. The candidate that can bring the country together that is bipartisan. The candidate for change. And they are seeing Sen McCain as being the negative candidate. Who's just attacking. And that’s now working."

October 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (38) | TrackBack (0)

If McCain Doesn’t Attack . . .

October 15, 2008 5:42 PM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. -- The setting tonight makes attacks, shall we say, uncomfortable. It will be Barack Obama and John McCain seated at a table, in close quarters, moderator Bob Schieffer across from them.

The thinking here, in Republican and Democratic circles, is that McCain is coming prepared with something dramatic. Maybe a policy proposal, like he brought out at the last debate, maybe an announcement of a Cabinet official -- or maybe, just perhaps, a real attack.

Keep in mind that if McCain doesn’t come out swinging tonight, he will disappoint many of his supporters -- up to and including his running mate.

If McCain doesn’t come out swinging -- raising, at the very least Bill Ayers -- he will have to be prepared for an evisceration in right-wink talk radio and blogs.

Maybe he’s thinking about legacies that are broader than that -- but as he thinks strategically about tonight and beyond, this has to be a consideration.

What do you expect out of McCain tonight?

-- Rick Klein

October 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (43) | TrackBack (0)

Hillary in the House

October 15, 2008 2:28 PM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. -- Since Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton is so firmly committed to being “the best senator from New York that I can be,” naturally she’s showing up at tonight’s presidential debate in her home state.

She’ll be in the hall at Hofstra this evening -- which makes for some intriguing opportunities for the debate’s contestants.

Does Sen. Barack Obama recognize her in some way? Or does Sen. John McCain do so first?

Does McCain use her presence to remind viewers that Clinton was the first to raise the Obama-Bill Ayers relationship in a debate, saying at ABC’s debate in April that it is “an issue that people will be asking about” -- and predicting (rightly, it would turn out) “that this is an issue that certainly the Republicans will be raising”?

Unlike New York’s senior senator, Charles Schumer, Clinton is not on the Obama campaign’s designated list of post-debate spinners.

But she will be making the TV rounds during post-debate coverage, according to a spokesman -- regardless of whether she comes up in tonight’s discussion.

-- Rick Klein

October 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (6) | TrackBack (0)

Will Phanatics Phorget Debate in Philly?

October 15, 2008 1:58 PM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. -- Those hard-to-reach voters in Eastern Pennsylvania (John McCain was in the wonderful town of Blue Bell, Pa., just Tuesday) may be even harder to reach tonight.

In an unfortunate bit of timing, Game Five of the National League Championship Series starts at 8:22 pm ET Wednesday. That’s about half an hour before Bob Schieffer tosses out the first pitch here at Hofstra University.

Up 3-1 against the Los Angeles Dodges, the Philadelphia Phillies have a chance to capture their first World Series berth in 15 years this evening.

Asks the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Larry Eichel: “What if they held a presidential debate and hardly anyone watched?”

-- Rick Klein

October 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (7) | TrackBack (0)

This Just In: McCain is a Republican

October 15, 2008 1:43 PM

HEMPSTEAD, N.Y. -- Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note -- I'll be blogging all day from the site of the third and final presidential debate at Hofstra University on (my native) Long Island. 

Amid all the will-he-or-won't-he speculation surrounding what Sen. John McCain has to do tonight, an interesting vein is emerging in the pre-spin: McCain wants voters to know that he's a Republican.

"He's heartened by the fact that Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid are planning a liberal takeover of all of the branches of government -- measuring the drapes," said McCain senior adviser Nicolle Wallace, on CBS Wednesday morning.

Said another senior adviser, Nancy Pfotenhauer, on MSNBC: “We just can't afford Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid and Barack Obama with a blank check and their signature on it.”

On one level, the argument makes perfect sense: In this formulation, McCain is the last bulwark against a Democratic takeover in Washington. It gets the based revved up, and maybe scares independents about their taxes.

But doesn't this run the risk of undercutting McCain's central appeal? In a year that's terrible for Republicans, he's spent so much time trying to tell us he's a different kind of Republican -- a "maverick," if you haven't noticed -- who can, heaven forbid, work with Democrats.

After a campaign spent running against his own party (and with that 90-percent wrong-track number, who wouldn't?), is McCain now interested in advertising the fact that he's a Republican? What happened to reaching across the aisle?

If he talks tonight about the need for a Republican president to check a Democratic Congress, I'd look for the Obama campaign to use it as evidence for the tag they're trying to apply to McCain: "erratic," they'll say.

October 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (38) | TrackBack (0)

LIVE DEBATE BLOG

October 07, 2008 9:03 PM

That's it for tonight folks -- two down, just one to go. Check back for more analysis tomorrow morning, as always, in The Note.

9:28 pm CT: Before the dizzying spin begins -- I find it hard to declare a winner. Tie goes to the frontrunner, perhaps, in the conventional wisdom? I don't see McCain hitting things that shake it all up.

9:27 pm CT: From Ron Claiborne:  For those who care about debate style: Obama watches McCain raptly whenever McCain speaks. McCain again is having a hard time looking at Obama when he speaks.

9:25 pm CT: McCain makes actual physical contact with an actual real-life voter.

9:23 pm CT: Why do politicians like saying "petrodollars"? And who cares whether candidates think Russia is an "evil empire"? Red Sox fans think the Yankees are an evil empire -- and, as it pains me to point out, the Yanks haven't won in a while.

9:17 pm CT: I'm not seeing any big breakthrough moments -- McCain is better relating to the audience, but Obama is having what qualifies as emotional connections. Maybe it's the format -- but I'm not seeing anything that changes any trajectories so far. (Anyone else ready for this format to be retired?)

9:14 pm CT: From a colleague: No winners in this debate. But there is one loser…Tom Brokaw. What is he doing here?

My take -- he's enforcing silly rules, or trying to. Then asking follow-ups that tend toward less light, not more.

Watch for this line from GOP mouths -- this wasn't a "real" town hall, and that's why McCain didn't "win."

9:12 pm CT: Getting some e-mails on something I missed earlier -- McCain didn't really engage on the "sacrifice" question, while Obama did, evoking the post-9/11 period.

9:11 pm CT: Then McCain attacks Obama for being a hawk -- "Sen. Obama likes to talk loudly."

9:10 pm CT: "We will kill bin Laden, we will crush al Qaeda." Those were Obama's lines.

9:08 pm CT: I can't imagine a single voter caring about the debate that just played out on Iraq. Not that it's unimportant, just that it's played out.

9:06 pm CT: The word "Ayers" has not been uttered tonight. Neither has the word "Keating."

9:05 pm CT: A friend who's keeping track notes that, more than an hour in, there have been six questions from people in the auditorium. Six.

9:03 pm CT: ABC's Ron Claiborne, on the "That One" line: "Tonally, seemed dismissive, maybe even contemptuous. It could provide Obama camp with an opportunity to onsinuate more than that, even racially-charged, a version of the phrase "you people." Obama press people quickly noted it in e-mail to reporters."

They did. One Obama supporter e-mails me to call it his "get off my lawn" moment.

9:02 pm CT: Obama finds a good stride talking about McCain's "wrong judgment." This was one of his better moments at the first debate, too.

Also, John McCain is taking a lot of notes. Seems like he's scribbling something every time the camera cuts to him.

8:59 pm CT: McCain: "America is the greatest force for good . . . " I don't think many listeners would disagree. I don't know, I legitimately don't, whether people want to hear about it at this precarious time. Maybe McCain is onto something -- it reminds me of Romney at his best in the primaries. But it does muddle a bit the I'm-not-Bush message.

8:58 pm CT: Don't hate on Delaware -- that's where Biden's from . . .

8:56 pm CT: An emotional connection, by Sen. Obama, on healthcare -- talking about his mother's struggles with insurers toward the end.

8:55 pm CT: Is health care a privilege, a right, or a responsibility, Brokaw asks. And America answers: Who cares? I just want to make sure I have it, for less money.

8:53 pm CT: In the un-green race to pass out as much paper as possible, the McCain campaign is destroying the Obama campaign once again. Aides scurry about handing out paper copies of the press releases every reporter gets via e-mail, several times over, usually. No Obama paper, as in the previous debates.

8:50 pm CT: Should healthcare be treated as a commodity? Obama talks about what an important and vital issue this all is -- and then . . . waiting . . . waiting . . . waiting. "We have a moral commitment as well as an economic imperative to do something . . . " This might have been a good opportunity to score on an emotional level, not a policy one.

"Do the math," McCain says on his healthcare plan. (Because he didn't right there.)

8:48 pm CT: Who voted for it? "That one!" McCain said, pointing, with that weird smile he sometimes cracks.

8:46 pm CT: Brokaw a stickler for the rules -- how much time being wasted trying to enforce them, though? Enough for an extra question?

8:43 pm CT: Almost halfway in, it's McCain attacking -- with a smile. He's the happy warrior so far, trying to stay optimistic while drawing the distinctions he needs to. No big game-changers yet, though.

8:42 pm CT: McCain calls for an up-or-down vote on entitlement reform. Sounds like something real there.

McCain: "Sen. Obama voted 94 times" to raise taxes. "That's his record." That's a laughable charge and McCain knows it.

8:41 pm CT: From ABC's Bret Hovell: McCain continues to attack Obama in almost every answer and Obama either responds or, sometimes, doesn't. But Obama's not putting McCain on the defensive at any point.

8:39 pm CT: Meanwhile, are all these questions turning into an argument over who's going to raise your taxes?

8:38 pm CT: Obama can tell tired jokes too: "The Straight Talk Express lost a wheel on that one."

8:37 pm CT: Brokaw slaps down Obama's attempt at a follow-up to the follow-up.

8:35 pm CT: Obama's tax proposals "like nailing Jell-O to the wall." I haven't tried, but that would sound difficult. Cute line. Then the meat -- Obama's tax hike is a hike on small businesses. "I've got some news, Sen. Obama -- the economy is bad."

(Waiting for the oppo research that points out McCain saying the "fundamentals of our economy are strong.")

More from the rah-rah McCain: "Let's not raise anybody's taxes."

8:33 pm CT: Obama raises the "revenue side," gingerly. That means taxes. He's engaging on the issue here, to his credit on an intellectual level. This is a key bridge for him to build -- he needs voters who are hearing a whole lot about his tax hikes to think about this as leveling the playing field, not making people empty their pockets.

"Those of us like myself and Sen. McCain who don't need help" -- that's similar to a Kerry line in 2004.

8:29 pm CT: McCain doesn't get real specific on cuts either -- in fact, tonight he just proposed a new spending program inside the Treasury department at the same time he's talking about his "spending freeze." Did you feel that thaw? By the McCain campaign's own count, this new program would cost $300 billion. With a B.

"We're not rifle shots here. We're Americans!" McCain says. (Sorry, but this one seems forced.)

8:25 pm CT: "We're going to have to prioritize," Obama says. Top of the list is energy, and energy independence. "And we can do it." Health care grabs No. 2. Then No. 3 is education. But wasn't the point of the question what you can't have?

8:23 pm CT: ABC's Bret Hovell points out that that is indeed a new McCain proposal: To have the Treasury department have the ability to buy up struggling home loan mortgages and renegotiate them at the new value of the home so that people can make their payments.

An intriguing debate tactic, to have that in his hip pocket.

But, from ABC's Ron Claiborne: How is this different than his HOME program to buy up subprime mortgages taken out since 2005 by "credit worthy' homnowners facing foreclosure and give them a new loan, fixed, based on current home value? He says 400,000 people would be eligible for that. Is he saying now -- can we infer -- he's talking about ALL troubled loans, a much bigger program? If so, that would be a change from his position last spring when he said people who got in over their heads and shouldve known better and speculators shouldn't be helped.

8:20 pm CT: Again, that would be McCain saying a voter's name, instead of starting an answer, "well, look." For what it's worth. And McCain calls out for bipartisanship -- this is reaching to the center, really a key goal of his tonight. Your contrast: Obama blamed George Bush, McCain said bipartisanship. WAIT -- spoke too soon -- this was really to set up a he's-a-liberal attack.

8:19 pm CT: Obama says there's "blame to go around," and then applies it in one direction. "Sen. McCain voted for four out of five of those George Bush budgets," he says. (That was an unprovoked jab, it seems.) Then comes more laundry list out of Obama, nothing really outstanding there.

8:18 pm CT: So far, both are playing populist cards. In the early discussion on the economy, I don't see either one distinguishing himself on the big question of the moment.

8:17 pm CT: Obama says he wants to "change the culture in Washington." That and other bromides are sure to fix everything, right?

8:14 pm CT: Obama needs to correct McCain's statements, "not surprisingly." (Was that necessary?) But he's not staying above the fray -- this isn't above-it-all Obama tonight early on.

8:11 pm CT: Now both candidates are touting the bailout package. (And why is McCain still talking about how he suspended his campaign for this.)

First attack -- Senator Obama and his friends, and his cronies, who defended Fannie and Freddie. This one is a bank shot, sort of hard to explain (lots of meanwhiles). But it looks like McCain is jumping at opportunities tonight, even when they're not directly offered. "Others took a hike," McCain says.

And -- McCain right up in voters' faces. Really moving in close.

8:08 pm CT: "Not you, Tom." (What did Brokaw do to deserve that dig?) McCain drives the right NUTS by mentioning Warren Buffet for treasury secretary. (They'll be much happier about Meg Whitman.)

Obama: "Warren would be a pretty good choice." So far, the Sage of Omaha is winning the debate.

ABC's Jennifer Parker points out that McCain is mentioning voters' names -- strong connections with the audience.

8:07 pm CT: McCain is roaming the stage, playing to his strength. And comes out with a policy proposal to help people stay in their homes -- a strong lead answer, to have a meaty response to that. McCain looks confident early.

8:06 pm CT: McCain: "Sen. Obama, good to be with you at a town hall meeting." Took approximately two sentences for the first dig.

8:04 pm CT: Obama leads off -- "worst financial crisis since the Great Depression, and a lot of you, Ithink are worried." He looks back from the beginning -- "final verdict" on Bush-era policies. But he was asked about what to do next -- and leads with the bailout package. (I didn't think either of them would want to tout that tonight.)

But Obama is the first to talk about tax cuts tonight -- will be interested to see how McCain hits back on that point. He also says "middle class" first.

8:02 pm CT: John McCain quick to make eye contact from the start -- he won't want that storyline to repeat itself.

October 7, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (480) | TrackBack (0)