John Berman has been at ABC since 1995, and allowed to appear on television since 2001. He covered the 2008 campaign extensively, following John McCain and Mitt Romney during the primaries and then Barack Obama in the general election. He also spent more than 20 months chasing George W. Bush around the country as a producer from 1999 until 2001, earning the clever nickname, "Pain in the Ass," from our 43rd president. He is a frequent and sometimes welcome contributor to all of ABC's broadcasts.
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Blogging the Pennsylvania Primary
April 22, 2008 8:38 PM
That's it for tonight gang -- check back tomorrow, as always, for the latest analysis in The Note...
11:03 pm ET: A lot of talk from Obama tonight reaching back 14 months, to his campaign launch. He's come a long way since then -- and he's still the frontrunner tonight. But there's just a hint that this race could be interesting again yet....
10:57 pm ET: Obama's tweak at Clinton: "We can be a party that thinks the only way to look tough on national security is to talk, and act, and vote like George Bush and John McCain. We can use fear as a tactic -- the threat of terrorism to scare up votes."
10:51: How about those Abercrombie & Fitch shirts directly behind Obama? Can't buy that kind of publicity! (Unless they did.) That's three shirts in a row in prime location. Incredible.
10:48 pm ET: Obama quickly labels Clinton's win a "victory." Seeks to be gracious. Then mentions that people thought he'd be blown out. (Who are those people?)
10:47 pm ET: Obama says he married up -- would that the end of the Bush administration mean the end of that joke...
10:42 pm ET: Jason and others -- I do know the situation in Florida and Michigan, of course. I'm just positing the Clinton argument, not endorsing the idea of counting them in the popular vote -- obviously, including Florida and Michigan is tossing an orange and a mitten in with the apples. Just in the sense of actual votes, though, the numbers are the numbers.
10:26 pm ET: A potential watershed moment: With Pennsylvania results, Clinton just overtook Obama in the overall popular vote -- if you include Florida and Michigan. That is a very big if, particularly when it comes to Michigan, but this is a major moment in the argument Clinton is making to the superdelegates. And if there were any question about whether Clinton will hang on to the end, that should answer it.
It is now, with 67% of PA precincts reporting, Clinton: 14,547,729; Obama: 14,516,766.
Dig at Obama -- question isn't whether "we can," but whether "we will."
10:23 pm ET: "The tide is turning," Clinton says. Watch for currents among those swimming superdelegates.
10:21 pm ET: Mentioning her opponent gets scattered boos -- and of course, the shout-out for the Website -- need to refill those coffers.
10:17 pm ET: This is in-charge Clinton we're hearing from tonight. A measured tone -- not overly triumphant, like she knows this race is not even close to over. "We are in many ways all on this journey together," she said.
10:15 pm ET: No more Bruce -- it's Tom Petty -- "won't back down" -- in Clinton's intro tonight. And Bill is behind her very, very briefly.
9:48 pm ET: We're hearing that Sen. Clinton is about 15 minutes away. I'd look for her to be gracious in victory -- but rather sharp in the lessons she's drawing from this. It's been a while since she had a chance for a straight-ahead victory speech -- she'll relish it, rightly.
9:42 pm ET: From ABC's Eloise Harper, traveling with the Clinton campaign: "Lots of smiling happy staffers wandering around. Huge rousing cheer when CNN which was blaring in the room - announced for Clinton."
That's going to be the photo of the night, surely.
9:36 pm ET: From a Republican friend: "I notice that self-ID'd crossover Republican vote is way down in PA (only 4%). By comparison, OH & TX both had 9%, which is pretty typical â- if not low -- for every primary until PA."
Wonder what Republicans did tonight?
9:20 pm ET: If you want to see the show first-hand -- travel to Indiana. That's going to be the next showdown, no doubt.
9:09 pm ET: It will depend on the definition of "close" -- and remember we won't get Philly numbers until late. Early returns are really good for her -- and every point is that much doubt she can place in the minds of the super-Ds.
8:55 PM ET: Clearly Clinton lives on for another day -- or at least another two weeks, I should say. As attention turns to the margin, I wonder to what extent the media will be able to communicate any sense of a split decision -- or a less-than-clear decision. Sen. Clinton wins -- she gets the big speech and the big photo in the papers. If she only wins by five -- how does that play? Not the day one story -- but very possibly the story on day two, three, four, and five.
8:52 pm ET: ABC PROJECTS THAT PENNSYLVANIA WILL GO FOR CLINTON.
8:41 pm ET: Don't forget to stay up to date with the Real Time Results on ABCNEWS.com.
8:24 pm ET: I wouldn't expect to see significant results until the 9 pm hour -- and the most densely populated part of the state, the Philadelphia area, will probably be the last to come in.
ABC's Russell Goldman just got off the phone with the Secretary of the Commonwealth's office in Pennsylvania: "No major problems reported."
8:17 pm ET: Kevin -- many smart people are puzzling over the exit polls, indeed. Much of it does not compute. Internally, at the Clinton and Obama campaigns, nobody I've been in touch with has been remotely optimistic. So the short answer is, we don't know what will happen. But as I noted, if it's close, that could be the big story.
8:14 pm ET: Indeed no network calls at 8 pm poll closing time. It's a long time before we know the margin, naturally, but the longer this night goes, the more difficult it's going to be for Sen. Clinton to declare a resounding victory. An interesting side story tonight will be who speaks first -- with Sen. Obama in transit at the moment, it's likely to be Clinton who gets first crack -- unusual position for the victor to be in.
7:58 pm ET: Jerome -- yes, they always move on, but the one who expects to win typically spends a few more hours on the ground -- to thank supporters and for a victory party. Sen. Clinton will be in Philadelphia tonight. Sen. Obama will be in Indiana. What does that say about what they expect?
7:55 pm ET: Hope everyone is settling in for an interesting evening -- it doesn't look like ABC or the other networks will be able to call this one at poll closing time.
Quick exercise in myth-busting: The Obama campaign DID try to win in Pennsylvania. And the Clinton campaign DOES need to win convincingly.
7:14 pm ET: From ABC's Sunlen Miller, covering the Obama campaign: "Obama's chief strategist, David Axelrod and Communications Director, Robert Gibbs just came out of the Philadelphia Sheraton wearing "Stop the Drama, Vote Obama" t-shirts. The t-shirts were purchased off a street vendor, and were written in large blue and black letters."
"Obama is currently en route to the Philadelphia airport and will fly to Evansville, Indiana for a rally with John Mellencamp. Obama is wheels down in Indiana at 9:45 EST. The rally starts at 10:30 EST."
I do find it interesting that he is doing the Clinton maneuver of skipping ahead to the next state as (expected) bad news flows in in the last-voting state.
6:55 pm ET: The general word in political circles, it I may sum up: Don't believe the exit polls. Everybody's being cautious at the moment, best I can tell. Of course, there's still an hour left of voting -- and many, many hours to spin.
6:22 pm ET: It does appear that Clinton is paying more of a price for the negative turn than Obama. In PA, according to the preliminary numbers, 67 percent say Clinton attacked Obama unfairly, up from 52 percent in all previous primaries. Only 49 percent think Obama unfairly attacked Clinton (up from 38 percent). This feeds the argument of both candidates being diminished by this race.
6:08 pm ET: Lori asks below about the Great Divide -- which is well reflected in the comments below. Will it heal? My sense is -- it will and it won't. That is to say, most Democrats will still vote Democratic, and most Clinton supporters will wind up supporting Obama, as would most Obama supporters eventually support Clinton. BUT I also think that every passing day weakens whoever the Democratic nominee will be; the charges and accusations being tossed about do have a corrosive cumulative impact. There are more reasons every day for Democrats (and Republicans and independents) to find reasons not to like Obama and Clinton. And John McCain is particularly well-positioned to pick up independents.
So yes, I think the Democrats are past the point where it can be reasonably argued that an extended campaign is good for the party's November prospects.
6:02 pm ET: With the preliminary exit poll numbers out, a few points that strike me off the bat. First of - people made up their minds early. Per ABC polling director Gary Langer, "nearly eight in 10 Pennsylvania voters made up their minds at least a week ago, and six in 10 decided on their candidate more than a month ago â- a higher number of early deciders than the norm in Democratic primaries to date." That suggests that all of these little stories we've obsessed over in recent days may not have mattered -- for better, worse, or indifferent.
Democrats are sick of the tone of this campaign -- with two-thirds of voters blaming Clinton more than Obama for the negative turn.
And watch for this to be THE story coming out of the evening, if it's close: More than half of Democratic voters in Pennsylvania (54 percent) expect Obama to be the nominee, REGARDLESS of what happens in the Keystone State. Of that group, roughly eight in 10 voted for Obama; one would assume this includes people who would have been with Obama even without his momentum. But what if it's more than that? If the inevitability storyline is sticking, is there bounty in that for Obama? Enough to bring him a couple points in PA?
5:10 pm ET: A word on Bill Clinton -- another election day where he's dominating the news, with him saying that the Obama campaign played the "race card" against him, and then denying that he said it. Truly remarkable -- it's hard to argue that he's been a net-positive for the Clinton campaign at this point. Do you think his actions have cost her votes?
Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note. I'll be live-blogging tonight as the returns roll in in Pennsylvania, with the latest from the exit polls and our ABC reporters in the field.
First -- a word on the expectations game. Of course, both sides try to downplay what needs to be accomplished, and dueling memos speak to that this afternoon.
From the Obama campaign: "The bottom line is that if Senator Clinton is going to make meaningful inroads in this race for delegates, she will need a huge margin in Pennsylvania. Tonightâs outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary."
From the Clinton campaign: "After the Obama campaignâs 'go-for-broke' Pennsylvania strategy, after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative attacks against Sen. Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn't Sen. OBAMA win?"
That's a fair question from Camp Clinton -- and my colleague Jake Tapper blogs on that very subject this afternoon. Nowhere is it written that Obama cannot win Pennsylvania, and he's certainly spent enough money there to signal a desire to win. The other argument from the Clinton campaign is also correct -- neither candidate can win without superdelegates, and the fact is that superdelegates could end the race (and could have done so weeks ago) if they were either completely comfortable with Obama, or completely convinced that he will be the nominee. That hasn't happened, for whatever reason.
But we're not at a stage in the campaign where all wins are created equal. Clinton trails by 145 delegates, with only 10 contests left, and she will NOT make up that gap via pledged delegates, even under the most optimistic scenarios for her campaign. That means what she needs to do is more difficult than what Obama needs to do: She needs to give superdelegates serious pause about Obama if she has any hope of turning a critical mass in her direction. The way to do that tonight is with a resounding victory that reinforces his demographic weaknesses, particularly with white, working-class voters.
This is not fair to Sen. Clinton in a critical sense: To repeat, the bar IS higher for her tonight. But that's what happens when your opponent wins the early rounds. That makes this evening like the RPI in college football: Running up the score matters.
What constitutes a convincing victory? Conventional wisdowm says double digits. 15-plus and things look much different tomorrow. Less than five (or an Obama victory) and there's more pressure on Clinton to bow out. It's the range of 6-10 that gets fun. In the end, it doesn't matter what I say or you say -- only what the superdelegates perceive.
What do you think? What does Sen. Clinton need to achieve tonight?
April 22, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (722)
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The whole thing is this .No matter how weak Obama is as a general election candidate, the rationalle will be this.
OBAMA! OBAMA!!! OBAMA NO MATTER WHAT!!!
OBAMA ! OBAMA !!!
There is your argument.
Posted by: tomdavie | Apr 22, 2008 4:36:08 PM
Right on, Tom. "We are the change that we seek." Or some such blather.
"When a voter asks you about Obama's position on an issue, turn the conversation to your own story of how you came into the movement."
Posted by: commonsensenj | Apr 22, 2008 4:42:23 PM
I know Obama has the nomination sewn up yet I still hold out hope for my girl Hillary. Her whole "kitchen sink" strategy has really turned many people off but knee capping your opponent is legal and fair in politics.
If he can't stand the heat I suggest he get out of the
kitchen. The Big Dawg and Hill Rod are gonna celebtrate tonight's victory!
GO HILLARY!!!!
Posted by: Taylor Marsh | Apr 22, 2008 4:47:24 PM
All she needs to do is win, and this will be another big state that Obama cannot carry and will not carry in the GE, so who want to play the numbers game they can the fact is to hold the electorial college you need those big states and he has not done that so far.
Posted by: SJ | Apr 22, 2008 4:47:40 PM
Obama cannot 'Close the Deal' because he's a fake, phony and fraud...Obama supporters are knee-jerk frenzied fringe left-wing lunatic airamerica extremist radical moveon.org sychophants
Posted by: Jacob Markham | Apr 22, 2008 4:54:21 PM
Clinton trails by 18 delegates when ALL the votes are counted as certified by ALL the Secretaries of State.
Only 18 delegates. Chances are that after tonights win, Clinton will be winning the popular vote, the delegate count, and the electoral college count.
Again that'a when all the certified results from ALL the Secretaries of State are respected by the Democratic party and the main stream media.
If you don't count MI and Fl don't bother covering the Nov general election because the result has already been determined by the DNC, a win for the Republicans.
Posted by: s.b. | Apr 22, 2008 4:55:10 PM
I am an ardent Hillary supporter. Never flinching from the junk thrown by Obama and his followers. Hillary needs to win tonight, preferably by double digits, which can still happen. Is it is less than 10 she will continue but it will get harder. If it is under 5% I would even support her bowing out.
I can't imagine anyone pretending the the Obama campaign hasn't played ever dirty trick in the book including denial and misdirection. I admit that Hillary has headed in the worng direction but overall she is stonger and a better candidate for the GE. I truly believe she is the only candidate still in the race that can defeat teh Repubs. Sorry guys. I am just being honest... now go ahead and jump all over me.. I am waiting.....
Posted by: Chipo | Apr 22, 2008 4:57:49 PM
Hillery is the most qualified republican in the race.
Posted by: Jim | Apr 22, 2008 5:00:46 PM
I love how Hillary asks "Why can't Obama finish her off". How about she asks "Why can't I come back". She blew a more than 20 point lead in PA, and now is going to have to settle for something like 6 or 7 points. She will need at least a 3/4 majority from the remaining Super Delegates to have a chance. That's just not possible, unless Obama finds another way stumble. Also, my concern is if Hillary pulls that off, how many Obama supporters are going to feel she stole the nomination. That I feel makes her unelectable. How in the world could she repair the damage done, within two months of the general election. A Hillary win = McCain win. I think people need to look at the numbers. I don't like saying numbers mean everything, but at this stage of the campaign, it's a foregone conclusion.
Posted by: No Republican in 08 | Apr 22, 2008 5:01:21 PM
It is a near mathematical impossibility for Clinton to win the Democratic nomination on the merits of the system -pledged delegates and most likely the popular vote. The only way she can win (her campaign is asking this) is for the superdelegates to overturn the will of millions of people that have already voted - many of whom are the base of the Democratic party. Obama may not be your personal first choice for the Democratic nomination, but a sure choice to elect McCain is to override the election process with
superdelegates on behalf of Clinton. What the Clinton campaign is asking of the Democratic Leaders is to betray the American trust in their party and beliefs.
Posted by: Paige | Apr 22, 2008 5:04:40 PM
Obama campaign has run one of hell of a dirty campaign. Yet, Axelrod and Obama are the winners at the spin.
Obama is dirty from his left wing anti-American supporters to his hate filled church.
I cannot logically understand who would vote for him. Yet, there are many misguided individuals who refuse to see the truth. supporters who cannot cry foul, and say they did not know. You knew and voted for him anyway. Shame on you!
NO TO OBAMA AND HIS ANTI-AMERICAN/HATE MONGER FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: disgusted in Illinois | Apr 22, 2008 5:05:29 PM
Obama campaign has run one of hell of a dirty campaign. Yet, Axelrod and Obama are the winners at the spin.
Obama is dirty from his left wing anti-American supporters to his hate filled church.
I cannot logically understand who would vote for him. Yet, there are many misguided individuals who refuse to see the truth. supporters who cannot cry foul, and say they did not know. You knew and voted for him anyway. Shame on you!
NO TO OBAMA AND HIS ANTI-AMERICAN/HATE MONGER FRIENDS AND ASSOCIATES!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: disgusted in Illinois | Apr 22, 2008 5:05:35 PM
Votes don't matter! Delegates don't matter! The only math that works is the Super Delegate math and the electability argument.
Barack Hussein Obama is seen by many as a closet muslim and his pastor is a racist.
Hillary is the only one who can beat McCain!
GO HILL!!
Posted by: Taylor Marsh | Apr 22, 2008 5:05:37 PM
to: No Repubican in 08... try a 4 to 1 spending advantage and the media favoring your candidate time and time again. Try deceptive tactics used by BHO and his followers including intimidation. If you really don't want McCain to win you should think long and hard about your blind support of a fatally flawed candidate.
Posted by: Chipo | Apr 22, 2008 5:06:12 PM
Paige - you are wrong. Hillary can win and she has a majority of the popular vote if you include FL and MI (even giving him all of the non-committed votes in MI - which some would have undeniably gone to other candidates).... Don't buy into the lies any longer. This is your last chance to wake up and support the only candidate who can win in November.
Posted by: Chipo | Apr 22, 2008 5:09:23 PM
The Democratic Party believes that every vote should count. OBAMA believes that only the votes for him should count
Posted by: Chipo | Apr 22, 2008 5:10:35 PM
None of the current candidates can fix the problems this country faces in just 4 years. I don’t believe anyone can. So 4 years from now we will all be on these blogs again. If Clinton wins everyone will be saying we told you she was too divisive and couldn’t get anything done. If Obama wins everyone will be saying we told you he didn’t have enough experience. If McCain wins everyone will be saying you put another Republican in office what did you expect? Hindsight is always 20/20.
Posted by: bcpchrnn1 | Apr 22, 2008 5:10:43 PM
The Demo party is demonstrating its ability to shoot its feet, again. The sad matter of fact is that there is no way out, but stuck with a hypocrite, who has become untouchable either criticizing him or praising him, simply because of the media's bias during the primaries. If you are his opponent, no matter what you say, it will be framed to be racist. Ask Joe Biden what happened to his campaign - being framed racist on the very same day Biden announced his presidency, for God's sake, for praising this phony!
Obama will be compared, side by side, by a hero, whether or not you agree with it, with a list of events affiliated with Obama, including placing his hands between his legs while the national anthem is sung, his wife only became proud of America when he received votes, his companionship and friendship over 15 years with Rezko, his relationship with Ayers, his mentor of 20 years with Wright, his hypocrisy of McCain is better than Bush, his elitist association with the "far-left", his clinging to guns and religion due to economic hardship, his blaming bitter voters being racist and anti-immigration, his......
He is not going to win in November because Obama is not just the list and comparison above, but because he is prepared and he is as much a gamble as Bush was.
Posted by: lazy to think | Apr 22, 2008 5:11:48 PM
Obama/Kerry '08
The Elitist Ticket
Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Apr 22, 2008 5:11:54 PM
Lame, with Florida and Michigan not counted 9 more primary's after today and you pundints can't see how Hillary can win? How blind is that? Did you miss something? Whats more important votes or delegates? When the vote was all obama: He claimed the delegates should vote for him, if Clinton takes the popular vote, then what? This nomination will be decided by the Super Delegates. Period.
Posted by: Beau | Apr 22, 2008 5:12:26 PM
chipo- while I appreciate your passion, I deal in facts and play by the rules. It is a shame Clinton was not as passionate about FL and MI when she signed the pledge not to campaign there and the votes would not count. It is disappointing when a candidate a person believes in does not do better.
Posted by: Paige | Apr 22, 2008 5:14:23 PM
This is Hillary's race to lose, she's been leading the PA polls since Day 1.
So - I'd say let's keep looking at the difference between a single and a double digit win for Hillary.
Double: she did well
15+ : she did very well
20+ : she did exceptionelly well
Single: she won, but didn't do too well
5- : still a win, but a disappointing one
A win for Obama would be sensational, for totally unexpected. And it won't happen.
Posted by: ken | Apr 22, 2008 5:14:31 PM
on September 5, 2005 Barack Obama said about Hurricane Katrina
"There's been much attention in the press about the fact that those who were left behind in New Orleans were disproportionately poor and African American. I've said publicly that I do not subscribe to the notion that the painfully slow response of FEMA and the Department of Homeland Security was racially-based. The ineptitude was colorblind.
But what must be said is that whoever was in charge of planning and preparing for the worst case scenario appeared to assume that every American has the capacity to load up their family in an SUV, fill it up with $100 worth of gasoline, stick some bottled water in the trunk, and use a credit card to check in to a hotel on safe ground. I see no evidence of active malice, but I see a continuation of passive indifference on the part of our government towards the least of these."
I support him not because I am swept up in anything. I support him because when face with a racially based question, he reframed the debate to include us all.
Posted by: Brian | Apr 22, 2008 5:15:55 PM
Plus, lets keep an eye on the male white voters!
Posted by: ken | Apr 22, 2008 5:16:22 PM
Obama has 20+ lead in NC any delagate gain Hillary will win she will lose in NC. She can't close gaps in states like Obama does,NC will be a landslide.
Obama 08!
Posted by: merle7 | Apr 22, 2008 5:16:30 PM
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