John Berman has been at ABC since 1995, and allowed to appear on television since 2001. He covered the 2008 campaign extensively, following John McCain and Mitt Romney during the primaries and then Barack Obama in the general election. He also spent more than 20 months chasing George W. Bush around the country as a producer from 1999 until 2001, earning the clever nickname, "Pain in the Ass," from our 43rd president. He is a frequent and sometimes welcome contributor to all of ABC's broadcasts.
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Blogging the Indiana and North Carolina primaries by The Note's Rick Klein
May 06, 2008 10:37 PM
11:03 pm ET: That's it for tonight -- check out The Note for full coverage and analysis tomorrow morning, as always. Thanks for reading and commenting...
10:52 pm ET: Bottom line: This is a devastating day for Hillary Clinton. Even if she pulls out Indiana, she will have done so barely. She lost the bigger state tonight, badly. She'll wind up losing ground in the delegate count and the popular vote. Her argument against Barack Obama suffered a setback. This could trigger money woes, and could mean problems with the superdelegates. It's getting late, and Sen. Clinton is seeing her path narrow.
10:50 pm ET: This speech -- not what I expected. If you're looking for the first signs of a way out, we may have found them tonight in these words she's offering. Lots of talk of her willingness to work for the Democratic nominee, far more than talk of why she should be the nominee. She talks of Chelsea and Bill's work in the past tense, even.
10:46 pm ET: A hint of healing to come? "We are all on the same team." "No matter what happens, I will work for the Democratic nominee, because we must win in November."
These could be the most important lines of the night.
10:45 pm ET: To me, at least, Sen. Clinton's body language tells the story -- even if you don't look at the glum expression on Bill's face. Tonight, she needed a big win in a big state -- and she's winding up with a small win, while Sen. Obama won a bigger state.
10:39 pm ET: "It's full-speed onto the White House," Clinton says -- with Bill and Chelsea behind her. (Why doesn't it feel like full speed right at this moment?) Something tells me the Clinton campaign isn't going to be able to get the money spigot turned on for them again.
10:32 pm ET: Sen. Clinton's arrival is, finally, imminent. Sen. Evan Bayh: "It's not tied anymore." Hmmm -- a statement that's maybe 2 1/2 months too late.
10:16 pm ET: One reason Clinton may not be confident at this moment: Not a single vote has been tallied out of Lake County, where Gary, Ind., is -- what's expected to be the biggest Obama county in the state, per ABC's Karen Travers.
10:10 pm ET: ABC's Kate Snow, with the Clinton campaign in Indianapolis, reports that senior Clinton aides appear to have disappeared from the ballroom -- and the campaign isn't saying if Clinton is even in the hotel at the moment. Doesn't seem like a confident shop at this moment.
9:58 pm ET: It does look like, if Clinton wins in Indiana, it's going to be closer than is comfortable. This will press the Clinton spin machine into overdrive -- at a certain point, if these Democratic doubts are as real as they say they are, they're going to have to prove it, not just say it.
9:50 pm ET: Those margins continue to shrink in Indiana... And we still wait for Sen. Clinton to appear.
9:34 pm ET: Core of the speech: Obama: "Don't ever forget that we have a choice in this country – that we can choose not to be divided; that we can choose not to be afraid; that we can still choose this moment to finally come together and solve the problems we’ve talked about all those other years in all those other elections."
9:31 pm ET: ABC contributor Matthew Dowd offers this quick take: "Big night for Barack. Showed he can come back from advertisity and struggle and win. Needed to prove he could do that. Winning early in night is big to send message that it's time to start wrapping this up."
9:25 pm ET: Obama takes on McCain -- "out of touch with these core values." Democratic candy, in this sour season.
9:19 pm ET: ABC's Sunlen Miller points out that the podium is oddly high tonight. Obama looks short. He's not.
9:14 pm ET: "There were those who were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election," Obama said. "But today, North Carolina decided that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, DC."
One of "those," by the way, was Bill Clinton.
And Obama just essentially conceded Indiana to Clinton. We're not there yet at ABC, for the record.
9:12 pm ET: Check out Obama with the Southern twang...
9:02 pm ET: Obama about to seize some prime-time hours by taking the stage in Raleigh, N.C. Word from Obamaland is like it's been for weeks now: The math is the math. Not a great rallying cry -- but at this stage in the campaign, they may not need more than that.
8:38 pm ET: No ABC projection yet in Indiana -- and ABC's Karen Travers reports on one reason why. Several key counties in Indiana -- including Lake, Monroe, Porter, and St. Joseph -- have not reported any returns yet. Travers: "These counties are likely to be areas where Barack Obama will do well, based on demographics and geography, but clearly Hillary Clinton continues to build a solid vote lead with 49 precincts reporting."
8:20 pm ET: While we're having fun with old quotes, the Clinton campaign reminds us of this one from Obama, from the wake of the Pennsylvania primary: Indiana, Obama said, "may end up being the tiebreaker." There's one Obamaland would rather forget.
7:55 pm ET: So granted, North Carolina was a state that favored Sen. Obama from the start. But do you think it hurts her argument to superdelegates? She has/had some momentum going, perhaps against all odds this late in the race. This will make the Indiana results, and the exit polls, more important for Clinton, to understate it.
7:41 pm ET: North Carolina numbers are starting to come in.
7:38 pm ET: An Obama supporter points out this, for flashback purposes, from February on ABC's "Good Morning America." Hillary Clinton: "This race is very close, it's very contested. I've won some, he's won some. Each of us has to get to 2025 delegates."
Remember that number? Camp Clinton wishes it didn't.
7:30 pm ET: ABC PROJECTS NORTH CAROLINA FOR OBAMA. There goes Clinton's hopes for a sweep -- as well as her hopes of a big delegate pickup tonight. This basically ensures at least a delegate tie for the night -- and now the pressure is on Clinton to win her "must-win," in Indiana.
You can here the sighs at Obama's HQ in Chicago. It's been a while since he had a big victory.
7:22 pm ET: As we wait for results to roll in, here's a fun way to kill some time: Make your own electoral matchups, with ABCNews.com's new electoral college calculator.
6:59 pm ET: Don't forget to stay up-to-date with Real Time Results at ABCNews.com.
6:44 pm ET: Give the Clintons points for honesty: They are actively trying to change mathematical perceptions. The Clinton campaign just e-mailed out a Politico story that quotes top Clinton campaign official Harold Ickes thusly: "The Obama people keep talking about 2,025, which implies they don’t intend to seat Florida and Michigan," Ickes said. "We think that's a mistake on the part of the party – it's foolish."
It's also the rules as the currently stand, and as Ickes himself voted to enshrine. Doesn't speak well for Camp Clinton's confidence this evening -- though to be fair, even a sweep tonight wouldn't do much for the delegate count, as they well know.
6:28 pm ET: Gotta love time zones. Results rolling in from Indiana -- though polls are still open in portions of the state for another half hour.
6:08 pm ET: Other tidbits from the preliminary exits -- black voters are a sizeable, but not overwhelming, share of the North Carolina electorate. And about one in 10 Indiana voters were Republicans -- how many of them part of Limbaugh's "chaos" army, we do not know.
6:03: ABC Polling Director Gary Langer offers this glimpse from the exit polls, on the impact of Wright: "Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just under half of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and North Carolina alike call the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright an important factor in their vote, a potential wildcard in the outcome of these two contests."
That's a big number to call it an "important factor" -- have to think that costs Obama a few points. But then again, early deciders make up a big portion of the electorate.
5:04 pm ET: As we track the impact of the new Indiana voter ID law, nuns were turned away at the polls today by fellow nuns. Nuns.
4:30 pm ET: Eloise Harper, who covers the Clinton campaign for ABC, flags this item from the Clinton pool report today. Clinton was asked by a Terry Haute, Ind., TV station whether he'd offer Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., a spot on the ticket: "If you don't tell anybody, because it's presumptuous of me to answer that question, he's on my short list for anything. I've known him for 20 years, he's been a superb governor and senator."
Not your typical non-answer answer to a question like that. It does make me curious about the power of endorsements. Gov. Ted Strickland was huge for Clinton in Ohio, Gov. Ed Rendell played a big role for her in Pennsylvania, and now comes Bayh in Indiana. With an answer like this, Clinton clearly knows how important Bayh can be for her.
----
Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note. I'll be blogging tonight as election results roll in from Indiana and North Carolina, with the latest from the exit polls and ABC's reporters in the field.
Some initial thoughts: Keep an eye on northwest Indiana. That's the Chicago media market, where about a quarter of the state's Democrats live. That means they are most intimately familiar with Barack Obama -- and that they've been exposed to crazy volumes of Jeremiah Wright coverage over the past two weeks. This pocket of the state could be a key indicator as to the damage the Wright affair has inflicted on Obama, and if Clinton runs close there, she should be fine in Indiana.
Also -- in the same vein of looking for weaknesses in Obama's coalition -- aside from tracking Obama's standing among white, working-class voters, the campaigns will be watching black turnout in North Carolina. Predictions going into the day put the African-American vote as high as 40 percent of the Democratic electorate -- and if that number is reached or exceeded, Obama should be fine in his must-win state. If not, his campaign will have to explain why it isn't evidence that he's losing support.
All of that said, what would the expected split mean? My read is that a tie goes to the frontrunner -- particularly if more contests are in the books with Obama's delegate lead intact. Hillary Clinton needs voters to help her make her case to superdelegates, and she's running out of contests. That said, keeping the process alive (that is, Obama missing another opportunity to put her away) buys Clinton time to make her argument.
What do you think?
May 6, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (284)
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I just voted about an hour ago here in NC. There was an AA man ahead of me trying to vote and a man and woman behind me. The man ahead of me gave an address that wasn’t even in the ZIP CODE of my precinct, poll worker sent him over to another area they had set up for either provisionals or to find out where his correct precinct was. The whole time the elderly poll worker was trying to explain to the man what he needed to do, the man behind me was loudly critical of the whole process and indignant. When it came my turn the lady said, as she was saying to everyone how are you today? The man behind me said in the nastiest most sarcastic mimicking way “how are you today, fine thank you”. I came so close to telling him how rude I thought he was. Don’t know if he was a supporter of BO, but given the kind of behavior I have experienced on line, it wouldn’t surprise me. I have voted at the same polling place for years and have never seen this kind of behavior from anyone before, nor have I ever seen anyone be at the wrong polling place.
My son who voted 30 minutes after me had a similar experience with a woman in front of the line with him, she hadn’t changed her address when she moved into this area so she wasnt in the books (how the heck did she even know to come to that poll? Asked her neighbor I guess). The lady told her she would have to go back to her old precinct and vote or she could vote provisional and she went off on the poll worker and made a comment after my son went through, you let him go through because he was white! and my son rolled his eyes and the woman went off on him!!! “don’t you roll your eyes at me…”!!!
There was also an Obama person right at the entrance door, my son told the poll workers and they told him he would have to move the legal distance away….
I’m really dismayed by the attitude of some of these people. Surely they know the rules, the rules apply to everyone. If it was so important for them to vote, why didn’t they put a change of address in?
It’s always been fun going to vote, nice poll workers, nice people in line, even people I suspected were repubs, everyone got along. If this is more of the “unity” BO proclaims leave me out!!
It was without a doubt the weirdest experience I have ever encountered voting. It’s pretty disheartening to me.
Posted by: Rick | May 6, 2008 4:14:54 PM
I think losing yet another midwestern state would further expose Obama's weaknesses. No way the democrats will win NC in the general anyway, nor IN, to be fair, but if the support among the working class rural voters is strong for Hillary in both states, regardless of the spreads, if I were an SD, it would worry me. It means Wright has had an effect. The AA vote will put Obama over in NC, but I doubt it will be 20%. If Hillary wins big with rural voters, that is going to hurt Obama's electability credentials.
Honestly, he should win IN.. it's in his backyard, if he doesn't, that's not good, no matter how they spin it. He has yet to win a swing state.
Posted by: A reader in GA | May 6, 2008 4:14:58 PM
A reader in GA
He won Wisconsin. He won Missouri. He won Connecticut. He won Iowa. He won Virginia. Those are all swing states.
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 4:24:29 PM
Bigotry is not confined to only white people.
Posted by: janetwickham | May 6, 2008 4:25:15 PM
A reader in GA
So you think someoene using the phrase "these people" to characterize all blacks, isn't bigotry? So you think that post wasn't inappropriate at all? Is this what you are telling me?
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 4:25:42 PM
janetwickham
You are right, it isn't. But two wrongs do not make a right, does it?
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 4:26:41 PM
I must be dumb, because I thought that AA stands for Alcoholics Anonymous not African American.
Posted by: Lovy | May 6, 2008 4:27:13 PM
janetwickham
I have seen people of all races express frustration with our voting process. But to single out a few people and then generalize it to encapsulate the behavior of an entire race of people, that is not only bigotry, but ignorance on an unforgiveable level. I am white. And it embarrasses me when i see other white folks come in here and spew nothing but HATE for blacks. People like you justify the insane anger of idiots like Rev. Wright.
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 4:28:57 PM
lol @ Lovy. Very funny.
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 4:29:50 PM
Interesting views Rick. I leave in IN and I think that Hillary will come out winning by more than 5%, 8.5% to predict more precisely with the support of the white-and blue collar workers. I think we have a surprise in store in NC; Obama will win closer to cities w/ the heaviest african-american population but it will not be a grand slide, it will be very competitive specially among those undecided...the surprise will come with the rural pockets--Hillary might pull it of by 2% overall (the poll I trusted must in NC was the insider advantage and it showed a 4% Obama lead. I heard the poller on the radio XM Potus 08 and he seemed the must objective) My perspective is that a lot of the polls samples were more than likely taken in the cities with less samples from the rural areas, thus I feel must of these population will lean towards Clinton. I think Bill's strategy will pay off at the end.
Posted by: Yess | May 6, 2008 4:31:04 PM
Kevin - he won all those states when no one knew who he was? Big scripted speeches and generous desperate Democrats who wanted "change". Just as Obama said he should have "vetted" his pastor in his kick Wright to the curb speech....after 20 years he didn't know who he was dealing with? It took me about 20 minutes to vet Obama and the Republican attack machine will take even less time exposing him.
Posted by: Ernie | May 6, 2008 4:36:54 PM
makemyday2day
Couldn't have written it better. I thought we had made great racial progress in this country until this election rolled around and tested us. We have failed it miserably, both blacks and whites, but especially whites. Rev. Wright has given white bigots and racists in this country license to preach their bigotry without qualms. They think they are being patriotic, but they are nothing but racist Americans and the LOWEST of what this great country has to offer.
Posted by: Kevin | May 6, 2008 4:38:58 PM
Gas Tax issue:
Why does Obama take half of clinton's answer and make stories out of it. She give immidiate solution of rthis summer as well as long term. Do you have a solution for this summer. Will pay the gas bill out of Tony rezco funding..
I watched the meet the press when question about his ad that he doesn't take money from lobbists. He answers that he takes less that doesn't make him that he never took money. Accept you are a liar.
Posted by: jonh FK | May 6, 2008 4:39:27 PM
I agree that even winning NC, Barack Obama support should be questioned if the African American turn out is below 40%.
Considering this is a historic election electing an African American, Barack Obama should match the votes received by John Kerry among African Americans in the 2004 general election.
John Kerry received 1.525 million votes in NC-2004, and 45% or 690k votes were from African Americans.
Posted by: Angel | May 6, 2008 4:41:46 PM
NO, I thinkn the phrase "these people" was refering to Obama supporters who are rude and obnoxious, often hateful, screem racism if someone doesn't support their candidate and don't follow guidelines for appropriate behaviour at polling places, certainly caucuses and even Jefferson Jackson dinners.
I'm sure some people who even voted for him will get so fed up with "these people" in Nov that they will vote for Mc Cain.
Do we really want 4-8 years of this kind of behaviour ruling the white house. Anyone is racist if they question saint Obama, even when his supporters want to commit fraud at caucuses and polling places.
Yeah "these people" isn't racist, it just describes most Obama wing nuts.
Posted by: s.b. | May 6, 2008 4:42:39 PM
Lovy...GOOD ONE...it took me a few minutes to figure out who they were talking about until I read the prejudgeous between the lines.
Posted by: carnival | May 6, 2008 4:42:39 PM
Angel...what happened to Hillary saying every persons vote should count?
Posted by: carnival | May 6, 2008 4:43:53 PM
Thank you Rick for your testament to the voting process going on in your state.
I'm sure all the issues will be worked out.
Posted by: s.b. | May 6, 2008 4:45:15 PM
It's amazing to me that the media constantly talks about Obama needing to win the working class white vote, even though many of these will vote for him once he's the nominee, and many aren't going to vote for either one. The question and analysis is never done on "why" in the world can't Clinton win the black vote and how she MUST have this vote to win in November. Why isn't this discussed as much as the 'white' vote?
There's something else not being reported as well. We all know the Independents are not going to vote for Hillary and Obama has a better chance of taking them against McCain, but the major thing being missed is how many "white" democrats will NOT vote for Hillary after the win at all cost campaign that she's waged (and I could elaborate but think it's all been written). My family is an example of this group of true blue democrats I refer to. And right off I'll say these are people who "at one time" loved Bill Clinton - but no longer. The media doesn't report on this but the democratic party has a rude awakening coming that isn't just about the black and young voters if the pledged delegates are overridden by the superdelegates.
My family is white, some with college degrees others without, salary ranges all over the place, living in the south, west and northeast. Two sisters in their 50's, mother 82, me 49, my husband the independent of the group (once considered a Republican) 47, brother in law is 56, AND the one thing we all have in common as far this election goes, we all voted for Senator Obama, and none of us, not one of us will vote for Hillary if she's the democratic nominee. And we all have friends that feel the same way.
So as the media concentrates on the white working class vote not voting for Obama, maybe some reporting on why she can't get the black vote and young vote and how's she's going to need them to win in November and then reporting on this large group of "white" democrats will not vote for her.
Posted by: DJ | May 6, 2008 4:47:25 PM
Rick: It was without a doubt the weirdest experience I have ever encountered voting. It’s pretty disheartening to me.
-----
Multiply your experience by about a hundred to understand what Democrats in Texas felt about their precinct and county conventions this year.
Posted by: mlwheeler | May 6, 2008 4:48:12 PM
Sitting here in Raleigh...My wife will be glad this day is over. She has been called 12 times since Friday by the Clinton campaign and 3 times by Obama. My son has been called 3 times by Obama as well. I told them that's what they get for registering Democrat. I am a registered Independent. No one has called me.....I guess I am just the forgotten voter in this contest....not that I am complaining at this point...Oh, btw...I didn't vote for HRC...I simply don't trust that she knows what truth is...
Posted by: indy_vote | May 6, 2008 4:51:03 PM
And......the obama campaign and obama claim they haven't played the racist card? Really? Look at these posters - those for obama are going nuts....Now it has become politically incorrect to use AA - what next? The word black will have to be removed from the English language? Then after that, what word has to go.
Just look at what obama has done to this nation - how he has divided people who generally get along ok - what a bigot obama, his follower and his campaign are. I can't believe the hypocrisy of all this. Unbelievable and getting sicker by the day. The AA of this nation have absolutely gone berserk.
Posted by: Lou | May 6, 2008 4:51:48 PM
I can't believe that after this long, drawn out contest that anyone would actually want to vote for Clinton. I am white, and I vote for Obama, not because of race, I simply believe he is the better candidate to lead us out of this hole our government has dug for us, Clinton has made this whole campaign look more like a mud slinging contest than, a presidential race. The lies that have come out of that womans mouth are outrageous and to use another mans words (Wright) to use against someone else is just plain petty, Hillary needs to suck it up, pull in her bottom lip, and EXIT while she still has any self respect left!!
Posted by: Lilcntrydarling | May 6, 2008 4:53:26 PM
Multiply your experience by about a hundred to understand what Democrats in Texas felt about their precinct and county conventions this year.
---------
And, yo ... that isn't "racist", folks. Even adult African Americans were embarrassed by the rude -- frequently white -- Obama supporters shouting in everybody's face and "herding" the African Americans around as if they owned them.
Posted by: mlwheeler | May 6, 2008 4:55:59 PM
Obama needs to drop out. He is tearing this country apart and causing too much damage for the democratic party to heal.
He's too ignorant to be President. Maybe someday he can run again when he grows up a bit and learns about America aand how a President should act. Rural America is still upset over his remarks.
Bye Obama, good luck next time. Afterall it is better for America and better for the party.
Posted by: Krissy | May 6, 2008 4:58:07 PM
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