John Berman has been at ABC since 1995, and allowed to appear on television since 2001. He covered the 2008 campaign extensively, following John McCain and Mitt Romney during the primaries and then Barack Obama in the general election. He also spent more than 20 months chasing George W. Bush around the country as a producer from 1999 until 2001, earning the clever nickname, "Pain in the Ass," from our 43rd president. He is a frequent and sometimes welcome contributor to all of ABC's broadcasts.
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Blogging the Indiana and North Carolina primaries by The Note's Rick Klein
May 06, 2008 10:37 PM
11:03 pm ET: That's it for tonight -- check out The Note for full coverage and analysis tomorrow morning, as always. Thanks for reading and commenting...
10:52 pm ET: Bottom line: This is a devastating day for Hillary Clinton. Even if she pulls out Indiana, she will have done so barely. She lost the bigger state tonight, badly. She'll wind up losing ground in the delegate count and the popular vote. Her argument against Barack Obama suffered a setback. This could trigger money woes, and could mean problems with the superdelegates. It's getting late, and Sen. Clinton is seeing her path narrow.
10:50 pm ET: This speech -- not what I expected. If you're looking for the first signs of a way out, we may have found them tonight in these words she's offering. Lots of talk of her willingness to work for the Democratic nominee, far more than talk of why she should be the nominee. She talks of Chelsea and Bill's work in the past tense, even.
10:46 pm ET: A hint of healing to come? "We are all on the same team." "No matter what happens, I will work for the Democratic nominee, because we must win in November."
These could be the most important lines of the night.
10:45 pm ET: To me, at least, Sen. Clinton's body language tells the story -- even if you don't look at the glum expression on Bill's face. Tonight, she needed a big win in a big state -- and she's winding up with a small win, while Sen. Obama won a bigger state.
10:39 pm ET: "It's full-speed onto the White House," Clinton says -- with Bill and Chelsea behind her. (Why doesn't it feel like full speed right at this moment?) Something tells me the Clinton campaign isn't going to be able to get the money spigot turned on for them again.
10:32 pm ET: Sen. Clinton's arrival is, finally, imminent. Sen. Evan Bayh: "It's not tied anymore." Hmmm -- a statement that's maybe 2 1/2 months too late.
10:16 pm ET: One reason Clinton may not be confident at this moment: Not a single vote has been tallied out of Lake County, where Gary, Ind., is -- what's expected to be the biggest Obama county in the state, per ABC's Karen Travers.
10:10 pm ET: ABC's Kate Snow, with the Clinton campaign in Indianapolis, reports that senior Clinton aides appear to have disappeared from the ballroom -- and the campaign isn't saying if Clinton is even in the hotel at the moment. Doesn't seem like a confident shop at this moment.
9:58 pm ET: It does look like, if Clinton wins in Indiana, it's going to be closer than is comfortable. This will press the Clinton spin machine into overdrive -- at a certain point, if these Democratic doubts are as real as they say they are, they're going to have to prove it, not just say it.
9:50 pm ET: Those margins continue to shrink in Indiana... And we still wait for Sen. Clinton to appear.
9:34 pm ET: Core of the speech: Obama: "Don't ever forget that we have a choice in this country – that we can choose not to be divided; that we can choose not to be afraid; that we can still choose this moment to finally come together and solve the problems we’ve talked about all those other years in all those other elections."
9:31 pm ET: ABC contributor Matthew Dowd offers this quick take: "Big night for Barack. Showed he can come back from advertisity and struggle and win. Needed to prove he could do that. Winning early in night is big to send message that it's time to start wrapping this up."
9:25 pm ET: Obama takes on McCain -- "out of touch with these core values." Democratic candy, in this sour season.
9:19 pm ET: ABC's Sunlen Miller points out that the podium is oddly high tonight. Obama looks short. He's not.
9:14 pm ET: "There were those who were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election," Obama said. "But today, North Carolina decided that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, DC."
One of "those," by the way, was Bill Clinton.
And Obama just essentially conceded Indiana to Clinton. We're not there yet at ABC, for the record.
9:12 pm ET: Check out Obama with the Southern twang...
9:02 pm ET: Obama about to seize some prime-time hours by taking the stage in Raleigh, N.C. Word from Obamaland is like it's been for weeks now: The math is the math. Not a great rallying cry -- but at this stage in the campaign, they may not need more than that.
8:38 pm ET: No ABC projection yet in Indiana -- and ABC's Karen Travers reports on one reason why. Several key counties in Indiana -- including Lake, Monroe, Porter, and St. Joseph -- have not reported any returns yet. Travers: "These counties are likely to be areas where Barack Obama will do well, based on demographics and geography, but clearly Hillary Clinton continues to build a solid vote lead with 49 precincts reporting."
8:20 pm ET: While we're having fun with old quotes, the Clinton campaign reminds us of this one from Obama, from the wake of the Pennsylvania primary: Indiana, Obama said, "may end up being the tiebreaker." There's one Obamaland would rather forget.
7:55 pm ET: So granted, North Carolina was a state that favored Sen. Obama from the start. But do you think it hurts her argument to superdelegates? She has/had some momentum going, perhaps against all odds this late in the race. This will make the Indiana results, and the exit polls, more important for Clinton, to understate it.
7:41 pm ET: North Carolina numbers are starting to come in.
7:38 pm ET: An Obama supporter points out this, for flashback purposes, from February on ABC's "Good Morning America." Hillary Clinton: "This race is very close, it's very contested. I've won some, he's won some. Each of us has to get to 2025 delegates."
Remember that number? Camp Clinton wishes it didn't.
7:30 pm ET: ABC PROJECTS NORTH CAROLINA FOR OBAMA. There goes Clinton's hopes for a sweep -- as well as her hopes of a big delegate pickup tonight. This basically ensures at least a delegate tie for the night -- and now the pressure is on Clinton to win her "must-win," in Indiana.
You can here the sighs at Obama's HQ in Chicago. It's been a while since he had a big victory.
7:22 pm ET: As we wait for results to roll in, here's a fun way to kill some time: Make your own electoral matchups, with ABCNews.com's new electoral college calculator.
6:59 pm ET: Don't forget to stay up-to-date with Real Time Results at ABCNews.com.
6:44 pm ET: Give the Clintons points for honesty: They are actively trying to change mathematical perceptions. The Clinton campaign just e-mailed out a Politico story that quotes top Clinton campaign official Harold Ickes thusly: "The Obama people keep talking about 2,025, which implies they don’t intend to seat Florida and Michigan," Ickes said. "We think that's a mistake on the part of the party – it's foolish."
It's also the rules as the currently stand, and as Ickes himself voted to enshrine. Doesn't speak well for Camp Clinton's confidence this evening -- though to be fair, even a sweep tonight wouldn't do much for the delegate count, as they well know.
6:28 pm ET: Gotta love time zones. Results rolling in from Indiana -- though polls are still open in portions of the state for another half hour.
6:08 pm ET: Other tidbits from the preliminary exits -- black voters are a sizeable, but not overwhelming, share of the North Carolina electorate. And about one in 10 Indiana voters were Republicans -- how many of them part of Limbaugh's "chaos" army, we do not know.
6:03: ABC Polling Director Gary Langer offers this glimpse from the exit polls, on the impact of Wright: "Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just under half of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and North Carolina alike call the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright an important factor in their vote, a potential wildcard in the outcome of these two contests."
That's a big number to call it an "important factor" -- have to think that costs Obama a few points. But then again, early deciders make up a big portion of the electorate.
5:04 pm ET: As we track the impact of the new Indiana voter ID law, nuns were turned away at the polls today by fellow nuns. Nuns.
4:30 pm ET: Eloise Harper, who covers the Clinton campaign for ABC, flags this item from the Clinton pool report today. Clinton was asked by a Terry Haute, Ind., TV station whether he'd offer Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., a spot on the ticket: "If you don't tell anybody, because it's presumptuous of me to answer that question, he's on my short list for anything. I've known him for 20 years, he's been a superb governor and senator."
Not your typical non-answer answer to a question like that. It does make me curious about the power of endorsements. Gov. Ted Strickland was huge for Clinton in Ohio, Gov. Ed Rendell played a big role for her in Pennsylvania, and now comes Bayh in Indiana. With an answer like this, Clinton clearly knows how important Bayh can be for her.
----
Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note. I'll be blogging tonight as election results roll in from Indiana and North Carolina, with the latest from the exit polls and ABC's reporters in the field.
Some initial thoughts: Keep an eye on northwest Indiana. That's the Chicago media market, where about a quarter of the state's Democrats live. That means they are most intimately familiar with Barack Obama -- and that they've been exposed to crazy volumes of Jeremiah Wright coverage over the past two weeks. This pocket of the state could be a key indicator as to the damage the Wright affair has inflicted on Obama, and if Clinton runs close there, she should be fine in Indiana.
Also -- in the same vein of looking for weaknesses in Obama's coalition -- aside from tracking Obama's standing among white, working-class voters, the campaigns will be watching black turnout in North Carolina. Predictions going into the day put the African-American vote as high as 40 percent of the Democratic electorate -- and if that number is reached or exceeded, Obama should be fine in his must-win state. If not, his campaign will have to explain why it isn't evidence that he's losing support.
All of that said, what would the expected split mean? My read is that a tie goes to the frontrunner -- particularly if more contests are in the books with Obama's delegate lead intact. Hillary Clinton needs voters to help her make her case to superdelegates, and she's running out of contests. That said, keeping the process alive (that is, Obama missing another opportunity to put her away) buys Clinton time to make her argument.
What do you think?
May 6, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (284)
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It is true that Illinois news stations have been covering Wright extensilvely. But it is also true that Se. Obama has been running very frequent ads over the last few days on the main Chicago channels: CBS, NBC and ABC. Duirng one show we counted the same ad five times.
All that advertising may offset any negatives from Wright coverage.
Posted by: thoughtful | May 6, 2008 5:01:38 PM
Does anyone wonder when Rev. Wright will come out from his lock down position? He can't be bound and tied until November! CNN is now stating Rev. Wright IS a problem with voters. Duh?
Posted by: Ernie | May 6, 2008 5:10:25 PM
If Hillary doesn't get the nomination, all the women of the world will be RIOTING!
ha ha, just kidding.
Posted by: SJP | May 6, 2008 5:10:48 PM
This voter will vote for John McCain if Hillary doesn't get the nomination.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:15:19 PM
I just voted in NC and was very surprised because no one asked me for an ID. I moved here from the West Coast and have voted in elections for a good long time ---I am going on 70. But no one here asked to see an identification. How do they keep these elections honest? So I have a registration card, anyone can easily get one. I moved here and got mine through the mail without ever showing any ID. The only thing that I thought was unfavorable was that there were signs for Obama right outside the voting doors, which I have never seen before over the years. Generally the day of the primary the advertising goes away and you are let to vote your conscience. That seems to have changed with the rules not to show ID?
Posted by: Anne | May 6, 2008 5:16:12 PM
Rev. Wright will be back . Obama has trashed him and he will not let his friend do this to him.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:19:29 PM
You folks who believe Obama played the race card first are insane. The way I remember it is that Obama was not drawing black voters when this election first started. Clinton was. When Obama began winning it naturally struck up a sense of pride in the black community and they began to shift from supporting Clinton to supporting Obama. When the Clintons saw this happening they attempted to downplay this migration by marginalizing Obama as the "black candidate" after the New Hampshire primary..This, as anything the Clintons' do, was a calculated political manuever and is resulting in driving a wedge into the Democratic party. It was their strategy all along. Divide and conquer. This was also the point when this "average white person (male)" decided I've seen enough of the Clinton politics (and lies) and vowed never to vote for a Clinton again. You folks who now want to revise reality really deserve the Clintons since their version of truth (lies) matches yours. The reality is the country deserves better.
Posted by: indy_voter | May 6, 2008 5:20:01 PM
I definately comfort myself on these sites when I'm reminded that most bloggers are in the tank for Obama due to age/computer access. Think of all the millions of Americans who work day and night, aren't 18-25 and believe in their country, bibles and someone who will try to fix our economy...Hillary!
She has solutions, takes questions from anyone, even Obama supporters at Sunday's town hall meeting in Ind. Doesn't run in fear to the basketball courts for a photo op instead of having a debate with Hillary for the undecides.
I wish someone would explain his platform of "uug, uum, ahh" to me.
Posted by: Debra | May 6, 2008 5:21:20 PM
In NC you do not need an ID. You just mark Hillary.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:22:11 PM
Anybody but Obama. Not because he is black, but because he is a left wing liberal and his wife is just a plain ugly human
Posted by: Karl | May 6, 2008 5:22:24 PM
"The exit poll estimated blacks made up about a third of voters in the North Carolina Democratic primary, about one in seven in Indiana. More than half of voters in both states were women, which is typical for Democratic primaries. About one in seven voters in Indiana and slightly fewer in North Carolina were under age 30; about a quarter in North Carolina and somewhat fewer in Indiana were over age 65."
Posted by: Angel | May 6, 2008 5:24:29 PM
Mitchell does look ill.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:26:28 PM
Angel your stats are great..keep informing us with your posts. Go Hillary!
Posted by: Debra | May 6, 2008 5:29:09 PM
Hillary does not represent my values. I am a college educated single father with two kids (ages 8 and 10), who can see through Hillary’s smoking mirrors. Hillary Clinton is an ELITIST. She has become like The Pied Piper of Hamelin...where many voters follow her without question...not realizing that she's driving them towards the abyss.
Regarding Michigan and Florida, 50% for each of the delegates per candidate is reasonable and fair. Everyone knew the rules and agreed upon them before the game started. All of the candidates knew the rules. All of the states knew the rules. Suddenly, in the middle or near the end of the game, because Hillary is not winning, certain people want to change the rules.
We, the people of the United States, have a moral obligation to maintain such rules that were agreed upon by everyone. If we change the rules now, what are we teaching our children? Let’s play the game fair. Majority wins.
Posted by: Theo | May 6, 2008 5:32:50 PM
Larry , he has too many shady friends and is out of touch with working class americans.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:35:24 PM
EXIT POLLS
WORRIED ABOUT THE ECONOMY
"The economy was on voters' minds in Democratic primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. Two-thirds of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and nearly as many in North Carolina said the economy is the most important issue facing the nation. That's more than have said so in 28 previous competitive Democratic primaries with exit polls this year."
"Only about one in five in each state said Iraq was the top issue, and even fewer picked health care from a list of three issues."
"Four in 10 Indiana Democratic voters said the current recession or economic slowdown has affected their family a great deal. Nearly as many said that in North Carolina"
Posted by: Angel | May 6, 2008 5:35:43 PM
It's only the race issue that has feared the 'other kind of whites' away from Obama...even though he's half white too.
Otherwise, who would vote for a nasty, lying, power hungry Clinton... whose a woman and the worst example of our sex?
Posted by: origood | May 6, 2008 5:35:55 PM
Hillary won Florida and Michigan. The voters spoke.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:37:23 PM
I live in Texas... with all the racist stuff coming out about Michelle and Obama's pastor...
That dog wont hunt here. McCain is going to stomp Obama.
Sad really, this was the year we were supposed to stomp the republicans.
Posted by: Steve | May 6, 2008 5:38:10 PM
Fox news poll today said of the three candidates who cares more about the economy...40% Hillary, 30% McCain and 30% Obama. Early exit polls on Fox also saying Wright has been a problem with voters. Votes are trickling in.
Posted by: Debra | May 6, 2008 5:38:43 PM
You can't blame Obama for any racist divide in this country. It was here long before he came along. He largely succeeds at transcending race (unlike his former pastor), but we as a country clearly have a long way to go.
I believe it was Ferraro, a Clinton surrogate who first played the race card with her absurd comment that the Obama campaign's success was due to his being a black man (Really??? Because black men always win presidential campaigns??????)! She then lashed out at those who rightly criticized her crude bigotry, saying she was being attacked for being white! Bill Clinton followed that with his comparison of Obama to Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton, implying that Obama only appeals to blacks. Remember this happened after Obama won Iowa - not exactly the blackest state in the union. It was also the Clinton campaign which released the photo of Obama in traditional Kenyan garb in a disgraceful attempt to imply that he "looked like a terrorist". There are multiple other examples of this kind of dirty politics coming from the Clinton campaign.
Now, Obama is no saint - he has made a few gaffes himself - but calling him a racist is beyond absurd. You might try to remember that his mother was white. Also try to remember that Rev. Wright is NOT Barack Obama. From the posts I read here, there are few, if any, who have attempted in the smallest way to understand Rev. Wright and why he might have a reason or two to be angry. Nor do they understand the years of service this man put into defending this country during a time of war. Also, It is entirely possible to love someone like a father, and still hate some of the things he says. I know my father has said a few bigoted remarks in his day. Should I disown him, too?
Look, I know that Clinton's supporters want her to win, but this kind of race-baiting ugliness will not help Democrats in the fall. The more we allow hatred and distrust to tear us apart, the more likely it is that we will see another 4 years of Republican rule. Just because Hillary Clinton isn't doing much to ease up on the racial divisiveness doesn't give license to her supporters to lose their minds. Democrats will not win unless we are all in this together. The only candidate I hear talking about this kind of coming together is Barack Obama. I would love to hear more Clinton supporters suggesting the same. Let me start - I forgive those of you who have made racist remarks. Please forgive me if I have offended any of you. Now, can we all start looking at the big picture?
Posted by: Joe | May 6, 2008 5:39:24 PM
Fox news poll today said of the three candidates who cares more about the economy...40% Hillary, 30% McCain and 30% Obama. Early exit polls on Fox also saying Wright has been a problem with voters. Votes are trickling in.
Posted by: Debra | May 6, 2008 5:39:25 PM
I believe Obama has been race baiting Hillary. Obama learned this from his friend Rev Wright.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:43:22 PM
No one is turned away from the polls for not having ID. They can cast a provisional ballot and provide ID within 10 days.
You can check the IN sec of State web site.
If anyone was turned away its because they decided to go back home and get their id.
Posted by: s.b. | May 6, 2008 5:45:03 PM
Obama said small town people are bitter and they cling to thier religious faith and thier guns. This statement has a racial tone to it.
Posted by: Anders Scooper | May 6, 2008 5:49:01 PM
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