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Blogging the Kentucky and Oregon primaries by The Note's Rick Klein

May 20, 2008 5:35 PM

9:05 pm ET: So now Iowa for Obama tonight, then Florida tomorrow. His fundraising, again, blows hers away. The math is the math. Not much good from Clinton's perspective, given the fact that she's cruising to a 30-point victory.

How many supers fall tomorrow? What does Nancy Pelosi do?

Read about it in The Note tomorrow morning...

8:44 pm ET: Speech struck me as just gracious enough, but not overly so. Still sounds like she's in it to win it, or something like that. Phony numbers are what they are, but she's still got her argument. Maybe she's justifying her continued candidacy to herself at this point -- it's hard to tell.

8:27 pm ET: Support the nominee "whoever she may be." Nice touch.

8:20 pm ET: "We're winning the popular vote," she adds. OK, this remains more than problematic -- if not downright deceitful. But it's an argument -- and really the only reason to still care about what's going to happen with Florida and Michigan.

"Why do millions keep turning out to vote in the face of naysayers and skeptics?" There's your question to Obama tonight.

8:19 pm ET: "Pretty tough odds," she said. Yup. "You've never given up on me because you know I'll never give up on you."

8:15 pm ET: Also: "Count the Votes."

8:14 pm ET: Hard to miss that sign behind Hillary on stage in Louisville: "Yes Women Can."

8:08 pm ET: Here's one way to change the subject: From ABC's Jake Tapper: "ABC News has learned that Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., hauled in $31.9 million in April (including $600,000 for the general election) to continue his battle for the Democratic nomination against Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y.  Two hundred thousand new donors joined Obama's effort last month."

8:03 pm ET: From ABC's Sunlen Miller: "The Obama family just arrived on the plane in Chicago to fly to Des Moines. While they were boarding Obama was yelled at by reporters how he was feeling, "I'm doing good, " he responded. And with that he got on the plane - and as a side note, he was wearing the flag pin . . . as he has every day this week."

7:24 pm ET: So it's hard to change games that are already over, but if it's over, who forgot to tell the voters in Kentucky? Same folks who didn't tell the voters of West Virginia? The question will be asked among Democrats -- what does this say about Sen. Obama's prospects? I don't claim to know the answer to that yet.

7 pm ET: Right at poll closing time, from ABC's Decision Desk: "Based on exit polls, ABC News projects that Clinton will win the Kentucky Democratic Primary by a large margin."

There you have it -- "large margin." Don't look now, but Hillary Clinton's on a winning streak -- if it matters anymore.

6:30 pm ET: Another interesting point about tonight: These two states are a test case for Obama's socioeconomic problems, while factoring out race. Kentucky and Oregon are both overwhelmingly white states -- but Democrats look very different in those states. Thus Clinton is favored in Kentucky, Obama in Oregon. That split really is more salient for the general election.

6:26 pm ET: This whole phenomenon of people saying they'll leave the party if Obama's the nominee -- do you think we'd hear similar things if Clinton was on the verge of the nomination? And how much of it is people registering frustration via pollsters, versus actually committing to cross over and vote for McCain?

I'm still struck by how comparatively little Obama has sought to tailor his message for the working class. It may be that this thing was far enough along by the time his problems became evident that he hasn't had to. But does anyone think this won't be a problem in the fall?

5:57 pm ET: From the early exits, an early, glaring warning sign: "Nearly half of Kentucky Democratic voters say they would not support [Obama] in a November election against John McCain, similar to the result in West Virginia," per ABC's Gary Langer.

Yowsers. Remember that this guy is going to be the nominee...

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Hi gang, Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note. I'll be online tonight as the results roll in, with the latest from exit polls and from our reporters in the field.

It almost seems awkward to have an election night tonight, given the news out of Boston that has frozen the political world. Here's guessing that you could get Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain to agree immediately that Sen. Ted Kennedy is a national treasure. We all pray for his swift recovery.

Some day we'll miss these election days -- but that day isn't here yet. So in the meantime -- what's at stake? I argue in today's Note that these contests could have bearing on the race for vice president, in the sense that this could be filling out Sen. Clinton's electoral resume. It has the potential to be an odd night indeed for Obama; he's been the all-but certain nominee in the eyes of the mainstream media for two weeks now, and still he could lose rather badly in Kentucky. He'll have Oregon, in all likelihood -- and more significantly he'll have Iowa tonight, and one of the most closely watched speeches of his campaign.

His tone will be all-important when he declares a majority of pledged delegates. That's about as important a threshold as all the other ways the Democrats don't determine the nomination (popular vote, number of states won, electoral college weight of states won, number of times your supporters go on TV to say you're winning) but this is a significant milestone that will be marked as such.

Yet the Obama campaign seemed burned when word got out that Obama would in any sense be declaring "victory" tonight. With all the ruffled Democratic feathers these days, what can he say or do to set the right tone?

May 20, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (283) | TrackBack (0)

Blogging the West Virginia primary by The Note's Rick Klein

May 13, 2008 5:49 PM

9:29 pm ET: This is a slow-counting state -- so we'll see the numbers trickle in overnight. But this is everything she could have hoped this night would be.

That's it for tonight -- check back tomorrow, as always, for the latest in politics in The Note.

And I'll be guest-blogging through the rest of this week for Jake Tapper at "Political Punch" -- so stay tuned.

9:25 pm ET: Does it change any games? Well -- no. But the game is still being played -- which is really what Sen. Clinton can count on as a victory under the circumstances.

9:20 pm ET: This does not sound like a candidate who's looking at exit strategies -- it's a candidate who is still plotting a path to victory. Not surprising on one level. This struck me as a good, solid Clinton tone -- talking about her rationale, while not tearing Obama down.

This is her ticket to staying in the race as long as she wants -- or at least another three weeks.

9:17 pm ET: Here's a potentially stronger message to supers: "The question is, why do so many Democrats keep voting?"

9:15 pm ET: (Just noticed that the Clinton campaign has prominently placed one of the very few black West Virginians to support Hillary conveniently off Clinton's left shoulder, in camera range.)

9:14 pm ET: Your message to supers: "The White House is won in the swing states -- and I am winning the swing states."

9:11 pm ET: Now she's using 2,209 as the magic number in a victory speech! Rather remarkable -- and suggests that she's not just biding her time until she drops out.

9:09 pm ET: Took about two minutes to get to the Website shout-out. Money remains the single biggest reason that Hillary Clinton might get out of the race before June 3.

9:07 pm ET: Clinton's first words: "Like the song says, it's almost heaven."

"We know from the Bible that faith can move mountains." Yes -- but can it move superdelegates?

8:59 pm ET: Clinton's speech is -- finally -- imminent. They are milking this moment, as is their right.

8:27 pm ET: Every word from Sen. Clinton will matter here -- the way to push herself out of this race is to upset the supers. There are elements in her campaign that want her to get more aggressive, like she was a month or two ago -- but that may not be the right play any longer.

8:21 pm ET: From ABC's David Wright, traveling with the Obama campaign: Obama called Clinton to congratulate her from his campaign plane: "He didn't reach her. Left a message, we're told."

Think they have each other's direct-dial cell phone numbers? Do they text each other? "UR G8 IN WV HIL - BO."

8:16 pm ET: From ABC's Eloise Harper, who's with the Clinton campaign in Charleston tonight: "The crowd is chanting 'Its not over, Its not over!!' at the Charleston, WV Election night party. There are about 200 people here waiting for Clinton to speak. Loud cheers in the room when the TV screen announced Clinton the winner."

Her speech should start soon.

8:03 pm ET: A lot of folks chatting in the comments secion about racist voters -- surely there's some of that going on, like in those who say race is a major factor and they couldn't see themselves voting for Obama. But I'm not willing to accept that those voters are a large enough cohort to win this state for Clinton, certainly not to give her a landslide.

We have seen in state after state Obama's inability to connect with working-class Democrats who happen to be white -- that seems to be more of what's going on. West Virginia is a poor, heavily unionized state -- and remember that Al Gore and John Kerry failed to connect in the general election in the state. Nobody called that racist.

7:55 pm ET: Jason -- you make good points about what Obama can/should do next. This does transfer a piece of the psychological burden from Clinton to Obama -- the pressure shifts to him to answer this, in a broad sense. If he doesn't keep the super train running, the question will quickly become, why? That said, Clinton still has HUGELY more pressure to keep her momentum going, if this is still going to be a race.

7:48 pm ET: I'm flipping between the cable channels tonight and just struck by the tone of the coverage -- it tells you again that nothing creates the perception of momentum like a victory. One week ago, commentators all said it was over. Now, we're back to superdelegates and demographic challenges. What's changed, precisely?

7:37 pm ET: A thought on what Clinton could use right now: A handful of superdelegate endorsements to roll out -- to show, not say, that people are having second thoughts about Obama. She wouldn't need that many -- maybe three or four, with nice statements saying, we need the strongest Democrat possible to take on John McCain.

Without that, the argument remains, for now, just words.

7:32 pm ET: There you have it -- it's going to be a big win for Clinton. "She almost certainly stays in 'til Kentucky and Oregon next Tuesday," ABC's George Stephanopoulos says. I'd argue that this could keep her in longer than that -- right through June 3.

7:30 pm ET: ABC PROJECTS WEST VIRGINIA FOR CLINTON, right at poll closing time, "by a large margin," per our decision desk.

6:59 pm ET: One number to keep in the back of the mind tonight: 104,000. That's the popular-vote differential by which Obama is ahead of Clinton (including the disputed votes in Florida and Michigan). If West Virginia votes at similar rates to other states, we can expect about 270,000 ballots today. To get close to a 100,000-vote win, Clinton would have to win by better than 2-1 -- certainly possible. And if she comes close, that leaves her in striking distance for next week's contests, in Oregon (where Obama is favored), and Kentucky (where Clinton should win).

As we've said before in this space, counting Florida and Michigan (particularly Michigan) is problematic at best. But if Clinton has an argument left, if she's able to say, "more Democrats have voted for me," that's not nothing.

6:20 pm ET: Obama is facing a perfect (or perfectly terrible) demographic storm in West Virginia. A good measure of racially motivated voting, and then add this from the preliminary exit polls, per ABC's Gary Langer: "About half of voters said that at least to some extent he shares the views of his controversial former pastor, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright; fewer though, two in 10, thought he shares 'a lot' of views with Wright. About half also doubted Obama's honesty and trustworthiness, turning the tables on an attribute on which Clinton more often has come up short."

Will the Obama campaign be addressing this -- at all -- tonight? Probably not. But surely they know they have real problems, not just in West Virginia, either.6:16 pm ET: A rather prominent flag pin is on Obama's lapel, for the second straight day. Here's guessing he won't lose it until after the general election.

5:56 pm ET: Obama is spending primary night in Missouri. In the prepared text of his speech, set to begin shortly, the word "McCain" appears five times. The word "Clinton" is somehow absent.

5:52 pm ET: An interesting note, from ABC's Teddy Davis: "Early voting in West Virginia was three times higher than the last Democratic presidential primary. Today's voting, by contrast, was normal/average in most counties -- a possible sign that the coverage of the last week, which portrayed Obama as a lock on the nomination, dampened enthusiasm from the incredibly high level at which it was operating."

That would make a big Clinton win even more remarkable, no?

5:49 pm ET: Some early spin from the Obama campaign, on what could be an early night: "There is no question that Senator Clinton is going to win by huge margins in the upcoming primaries in West Virginia today and Kentucky next weeks. She has poured resources into both states and she, former President Clinton, and Chelsea Clinton have all campaigned extraordinarily hard there.

"The Clinton campaign has already been touting their margins in these states – In fact, Bill Clinton said that Hillary can win West Virginia with 80 percent—and the West Virginia Senate Majority Leader said Clinton needs to win by '80-20 or 90-10.'  And in keeping large margins in perspective, it is worth noting that, while Senator Clinton will win big in West Virginia, Barack Obama won neighboring Virginia by 29 points.

"But with 49 contests behind us and only six to go -- including several states where we expect to do well -- Barack Obama leads in pledged delegates, contests won, and superdelegates. And for perspective, while 28 pledged delegates are up for grabs this evening, Obama has won the support of 27 superdelegates in the course of just the last week putting him less than 150 total delegates away from clinching the Democratic nomination."

My take -- aside from the fact that Clinton doesn't have to win by anywhere near those margins for this to be a good night for her -- that's all well and good, but none of this answers the demographic challenges that are showing themselves, again, in West Virginia. This may be as hostile an electorate as Obama will face, certainly this late in the primary season. But what makes this (expected) loss different from all others is that this is the first contest since the media has (and that's for a separate debate) delcared this race to be over. Someone forgot to tell Democratic voters in a swing state.

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Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note. I'll be live-blogging tonight, with the latest from the exit polls, vote returns, and from our reporters in the field during the West Virginia primary.

A few thoughts -- first, as you know from reading the coverage coming into the day, this isn't about who wins, but about by how much. We can debate the margin Sen. Clinton needs to "win" by, but the very fact that she's going to win -- and probably win big -- says something important about the holes that remain in Sen. Obama's coalition. Tonight is unlikely to change the outcome of the nomination fight, but it's rather remarkable that Sen. Clinton is set to win big in a swing state despite the fact that most of the big-time media talking heads have spent the last six days declaring the race over.

Second -- an argument being advanced by the Clinton campaign regarding the importance of West Virginia. From a memo sent by the Clinton campaign today: "no Democrat has won the White House without winning West Virginia since 1916." Leaving aside the question of whether winning the primary has any relation to how you do in the general -- John Kerry did just fine in the 2004 West Virginia primary, but these weren't his peeps in the general -- this strikes me as a dangerous sort of comparison for Clinton to make.

The same comparison -- Democrats not winning without the states since 1916 -- could be said for Minnesota and Missouri as well. Your winner in both of those states? Obama.

May 13, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (418) | TrackBack (0)

Blogging the Indiana and North Carolina primaries by The Note's Rick Klein

May 06, 2008 10:37 PM

11:03 pm ET: That's it for tonight -- check out The Note for full coverage and analysis tomorrow morning, as always. Thanks for reading and commenting...

10:52 pm ET: Bottom line: This is a devastating day for Hillary Clinton. Even if she pulls out Indiana, she will have done so barely. She lost the bigger state tonight, badly. She'll wind up losing ground in the delegate count and the popular vote. Her argument against Barack Obama suffered a setback. This could trigger money woes, and could mean problems with the superdelegates. It's getting late, and Sen. Clinton is seeing her path narrow.

10:50 pm ET: This speech -- not what I expected. If you're looking for the first signs of a way out, we may have found them tonight in these words she's offering. Lots of talk of her willingness to work for the Democratic nominee, far more than talk of why she should be the nominee. She talks of Chelsea and Bill's work in the past tense, even.

10:46 pm ET: A hint of healing to come? "We are all on the same team." "No matter what happens, I will work for the Democratic nominee, because we must win in November."

These could be the most important lines of the night.

10:45 pm ET: To me, at least, Sen. Clinton's body language tells the story -- even if you don't look at the glum expression on Bill's face. Tonight, she needed a big win in a big state -- and she's winding up with a small win, while Sen. Obama won a bigger state.

10:39 pm ET: "It's full-speed onto the White House," Clinton says -- with Bill and Chelsea behind her. (Why doesn't it feel like full speed right at this moment?) Something tells me the Clinton campaign isn't going to be able to get the money spigot turned on for them again.

10:32 pm ET: Sen. Clinton's arrival is, finally, imminent. Sen. Evan Bayh: "It's not tied anymore." Hmmm -- a statement that's maybe 2 1/2 months too late.

10:16 pm ET: One reason Clinton may not be confident at this moment: Not a single vote has been tallied out of Lake County, where Gary, Ind., is -- what's expected to be the biggest Obama county in the state, per ABC's Karen Travers.

10:10 pm ET: ABC's Kate Snow, with the Clinton campaign in Indianapolis, reports that senior Clinton aides appear to have disappeared from the ballroom -- and the campaign isn't saying if Clinton is even in the hotel at the moment. Doesn't seem like a confident shop at this moment.

9:58 pm ET: It does look like, if Clinton wins in Indiana, it's going to be closer than is comfortable. This will press the Clinton spin machine into overdrive -- at a certain point, if these Democratic doubts are as real as they say they are, they're going to have to prove it, not just say it.

9:50 pm ET: Those margins continue to shrink in Indiana... And we still wait for Sen. Clinton to appear.

9:34 pm ET: Core of the speech: Obama: "Don't ever forget that we have a choice in this country – that we can choose not to be divided; that we can choose not to be afraid; that we can still choose this moment to finally come together and solve the problems we’ve talked about all those other years in all those other elections."

9:31 pm ET: ABC contributor Matthew Dowd offers this quick take: "Big night for Barack. Showed he can come back from advertisity and struggle and win. Needed to prove he could do that. Winning early in night is big to send message that it's time to start wrapping this up."

9:25 pm ET: Obama takes on McCain -- "out of touch with these core values." Democratic candy, in this sour season.

9:19 pm ET: ABC's Sunlen Miller points out that the podium is oddly high tonight. Obama looks short. He's not.

9:14 pm ET: "There were those who were saying that North Carolina would be a game-changer in this election," Obama said. "But today, North Carolina decided that the only game that needs changing is the one in Washington, DC."

One of "those," by the way, was Bill Clinton.

And Obama just essentially conceded Indiana to Clinton. We're not there yet at ABC, for the record. 

9:12 pm ET: Check out Obama with the Southern twang...

9:02 pm ET: Obama about to seize some prime-time hours by taking the stage in Raleigh, N.C. Word from Obamaland is like it's been for weeks now: The math is the math. Not a great rallying cry -- but at this stage in the campaign, they may not need more than that.

8:38 pm ET: No ABC projection yet in Indiana -- and ABC's Karen Travers reports on one reason why. Several key counties in Indiana -- including Lake, Monroe, Porter, and St. Joseph -- have not reported any returns yet. Travers: "These counties are likely to be areas where Barack Obama will do well, based on demographics and geography, but clearly Hillary Clinton continues to build a solid vote lead with 49 precincts reporting."

8:20 pm ET: While we're having fun with old quotes, the Clinton campaign reminds us of this one from Obama, from the wake of the Pennsylvania primary: Indiana, Obama said, "may end up being the tiebreaker." There's one Obamaland would rather forget.

7:55 pm ET: So granted, North Carolina was a state that favored Sen. Obama from the start. But do you think it hurts her argument to superdelegates? She has/had some momentum going, perhaps against all odds this late in the race. This will make the Indiana results, and the exit polls, more important for Clinton, to understate it.

7:41 pm ET: North Carolina numbers are starting to come in.

7:38 pm ET: An Obama supporter points out this, for flashback purposes, from February on ABC's "Good Morning America." Hillary Clinton: "This race is very close, it's very contested. I've won some, he's won some. Each of us has to get to 2025 delegates."

Remember that number? Camp Clinton wishes it didn't.

7:30 pm ET: ABC PROJECTS NORTH CAROLINA FOR OBAMA. There goes Clinton's hopes for a sweep -- as well as her hopes of a big delegate pickup tonight. This basically ensures at least a delegate tie for the night -- and now the pressure is on Clinton to win her "must-win," in Indiana.

You can here the sighs at Obama's HQ in Chicago. It's been a while since he had a big victory.

7:22 pm ET: As we wait for results to roll in, here's a fun way to kill some time: Make your own electoral matchups, with ABCNews.com's new electoral college calculator.

6:59 pm ET: Don't forget to stay up-to-date with Real Time Results at ABCNews.com.

6:44 pm ET: Give the Clintons points for honesty: They are actively trying to change mathematical perceptions. The Clinton campaign just e-mailed out a Politico story that quotes top Clinton campaign official Harold Ickes thusly: "The Obama people keep talking about 2,025, which implies they don’t intend to seat Florida and Michigan," Ickes said. "We think that's a mistake on the part of the party – it's foolish."

It's also the rules as the currently stand, and as Ickes himself voted to enshrine. Doesn't speak well for Camp Clinton's confidence this evening -- though to be fair, even a sweep tonight wouldn't do much for the delegate count, as they well know.

6:28 pm ET: Gotta love time zones. Results rolling in from Indiana -- though polls are still open in portions of the state for another half hour.

6:08 pm ET: Other tidbits from the preliminary exits -- black voters are a sizeable, but not overwhelming, share of the North Carolina electorate. And about one in 10 Indiana voters were Republicans -- how many of them part of Limbaugh's "chaos" army, we do not know.

6:03: ABC Polling Director Gary Langer offers this glimpse from the exit polls, on the impact of Wright: "Preliminary exit poll results indicate that just under half of Democratic primary voters in Indiana and North Carolina alike call the controversy surrounding the Rev. Jeremiah Wright an important factor in their vote, a potential wildcard in the outcome of these two contests."

That's a big number to call it an "important factor" -- have to think that costs Obama a few points. But then again, early deciders make up a big portion of the electorate.

5:04 pm ET: As we track the impact of the new Indiana voter ID law, nuns were turned away at the polls today by fellow nuns. Nuns.

4:30 pm ET: Eloise Harper, who covers the Clinton campaign for ABC, flags this item from the Clinton pool report today. Clinton was asked by a Terry Haute, Ind., TV station whether he'd offer Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., a spot on the ticket: "If you don't tell anybody, because it's presumptuous of me to answer that question, he's on my short list for anything. I've known him for 20 years, he's been a superb governor and senator."

Not your typical non-answer answer to a question like that. It does make me curious about the power of endorsements. Gov. Ted Strickland was huge for Clinton in Ohio, Gov. Ed Rendell played a big role for her in Pennsylvania, and now comes Bayh in Indiana. With an answer like this, Clinton clearly knows how important Bayh can be for her.

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Rick Klein here from ABC's The Note. I'll be blogging tonight as election results roll in from Indiana and North Carolina, with the latest from the exit polls and ABC's reporters in the field.

Some initial thoughts: Keep an eye on northwest Indiana. That's the Chicago media market, where about a quarter of the state's Democrats live. That means they are most intimately familiar with Barack Obama -- and that they've been exposed to crazy volumes of Jeremiah Wright coverage over the past two weeks. This pocket of the state could be a key indicator as to the damage the Wright affair has inflicted on Obama, and if Clinton runs close there, she should be fine in Indiana.

Also -- in the same vein of looking for weaknesses in Obama's coalition -- aside from tracking Obama's standing among white, working-class voters, the campaigns will be watching black turnout in North Carolina. Predictions going into the day put the African-American vote as high as 40 percent of the Democratic electorate -- and if that number is reached or exceeded, Obama should be fine in his must-win state. If not, his campaign will have to explain why it isn't evidence that he's losing support.

All of that said, what would the expected split mean? My read is that a tie goes to the frontrunner -- particularly if more contests are in the books with Obama's delegate lead intact. Hillary Clinton needs voters to help her make her case to superdelegates, and she's running out of contests. That said, keeping the process alive (that is, Obama missing another opportunity to put her away) buys Clinton time to make her argument.

What do you think?

May 6, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (284) | TrackBack (0)