Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
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Apollo 13: Behind the Moon
December 11, 2007 10:41 PM
Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor
Hmmm, where on Earth is Dowd headed with that headline? Stick with me for a moment.
As you will recall from having read about or actually watched the events surrounding Apollo 13 (or if you saw the wonderful Tom Hanks movie), this mission had troubles from the start.
But one chapter of the Apollo 13 journey relates to the presidential campaign chapter we are about to enter.
During Apollo 13, the astronauts had to go around the moon in order to get back to Earth in a badly damaged space capsule. In the time traveling around the moon, NASA and the families lost contact for a number of minutes, and all had to wait and see what was going to happen when radio contact was restored.
That is exactly the political period we are coming to . . . because Christmas and the New Year's holidays are approaching, the candidates and their campaigns will have to stand down a bit. Advertising, travel, and voter contact will likely need to be scaled back.
And it is going to be very difficult to accurately determine voter sentiments in this period. Both from a standpoint of an inability to reach likely voters, and from the voters' reluctance to engage in political discourse at this time. So good voter data will be "lost" for awhile.
Starting sometime soon, the state of the race in both parties is going to go "behind the moon". We will not be able to get a true picture until the actual caucus voting in Iowa occurs on January 3rd -- which takes place 48 hours after New Years Day.
And in a contest which is wide open and close on both sides, it is an interesting dilemma for those covering and watching the races as well as for those in the race. Without objective data, everyone is going to rely on anecdotal evidence -- not always the best indicator of the truth.
What info can we trust?
Who can we believe?
Did a big rally signify true momentum?
My advice is to watch for many signs and gather as much information as possible, and see what looks like a trend from the anecdotes and not just from a one time event or data point. Try to screen out the noise, and listen for the frequency.
For example, if poll numbers do show up, pay attention to the trend and not the particular numbers of that day. Also, be very leery of info put out by campaigns at this time, especially if it runs counter to trends over the last few weeks.
And keep your seatbelt fastened cause this is going to be a wild ride, until the radio contact is restored on the night of the Iowa caucus in less than three weeks.
December 11, 2007 | Permalink | User Comments (9)
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Hi,
I don't completely agree. Yes, if the discussion was about OLD WORLD media, correct.
However, most of us now get our new online. And the holidays will not stop that.
Rich Sage.
Posted by: Rich Sage | Dec 12, 2007 3:49:19 AM
Hi,
I don't completely agree. Yes, if the discussion was about OLD WORLD media, correct.
However, most of us now get our news online. And the holidays will not stop that.
Rich Sage.
Posted by: Rich Sage | Dec 12, 2007 3:50:10 AM
GOOD,THEY ARE THE ONE'S CREATING THIS MESS!!!
Posted by: Doc | Dec 12, 2007 7:45:30 AM
I believe mr. dowd is the first to say what others are going to be clamoring over the next few weeks. What a unique and accurate analogy.
Posted by: Jess | Dec 12, 2007 9:39:33 AM
we can only hope to get some slight break in all of this. This circus has gotten way out of hand.
Posted by: Louis | Dec 12, 2007 12:12:57 PM
Great analogy. Another chapter of Apollo 13 relates to how perceptions, as well as the media, have changed. Today, the astronauts and those on the ground would have been lauded for their ingenuity and creativity in solving the problem. But back then, they kept what they did a secret because to them, it represented failure.
Posted by: Patti | Dec 12, 2007 1:27:32 PM
I'll say it again. None of these candidates stand more than shoulder high to an ant hill. At least the astronaut corp and mission control were America's best.
Posted by: cl1107jrf | Dec 13, 2007 10:49:05 PM
Was interesting to see how nicely the Democrats played in the last debate...perhaps in response to the holidays themselves but also in relation to what Mr. Dowd is saying...that they know things will get quieter and they don't want folks going into that period with unsportsman-like images in their heads.
Posted by: tmarino | Dec 14, 2007 10:50:21 AM
"Who's gonna win"?
They are all losers with Hellery Rotten as the chief loser. It's business as usual for the Democraps; their approval rating is below them all. They have control in the house and the senate and have accomplished a total ZERO. They are so intent with their hatred of Bush they will destroy America in their attempt to zeal to oust the Bush administration. I only hope that Hellery Rotten wins the nomination. With her lies and deceit nobody will vote for her except a total moron. Hellery Rotten will assure a Republican victory even if Charles Manson was the GOP front runner.
And when "slick willy" looks straight into the camera and states "Helery Rotten is the best qualified" it only brings back memories of slick willy staring into the camera and stating "I did not have sex with that woman"; followed up with his perjury on the same topic and loss of his license to practise law. WE DO NOT NEED MORE OF THE CLINTONS IN OFFICE!
VOTE NO ON HELLARY ROTTEN!
LIFE IS A BEETCH; DONT VOTE FOR ONE!
Posted by: WOODSMAN1ST | Dec 15, 2007 1:22:16 PM
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