Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Arrival of Arithmetic?!?

January 10, 2008 6:24 PM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Wow! Five primaries and caucuses combined so far for both parties, and five different winners.

Whether the voters are totally conscious of it, they are telling all of us that they want this primary process to continue for a while longer, and that the stakes of this election are too high to shut the process down quickly at the beginning like in years past.

So today we stand with no solid momentum garnered on either side and no real front runner. Though being the front runner these days doesn't seem to be the greatest position to be in.  I think all candidates are going to be fighting over the mantle of "underdog".

New Hampshire again showed its tendency to buck the perceived trends –- on both sides the winner of the Iowa caucus lost in New Hampshire. 

So on to Michigan for the Republicans. And Michigan could truly be the most competitive state thus far in their primary battle. 

McCain beat President Bush there in 2000, even after Bush won South Carolina, so McCain has to be given an edge. Mitt Romney was born and grew up there, and his beloved father, George, was a very popular Governor in the sixties so he should be favored. And Mike Huckabee is popular among religious conservatives, right to life voters and homeschoolers, all of who are a big constituency in Michigan.

Having been born in Detroit, and gone to public school in Michigan and still having family there, it's exciting times for many voters including some of my brothers and sisters. And because of the hits the Michigan economy has taken over the last few years due to troubles in the domestic auto industry, expect the economy and taxes to dominate the discussion.

Now on to something all of us need to consider. 

In the last 30 years, presidential nomination campaigns have been fought over and covered based on knockout blows in winning a few states, and then pushing everyone else out of the race. Today that may no longer be the best way to look at this race on both sides.

We all should begin considering that delegate counts is gaining in importance. And as we begin to look at those counts and what could happen, just eyeing the first place finishers may be losing sight of key dynamics.

Let's look at where things stand today:

For the Democrats it is a long way to a nominee being chosen, but today Hillary Clinton is ahead on delegates, with Obama second and with John Edwards picking up delegates along the way though in third.   

So as the nomination heads to Nevada, and South Carolina, and then Super Tuesday, who finishes second and in what state will be crucial in a delegate determined battle. As well as watching who nails down superdelegates along the way is something to keep in mind because the large number of them in the Democratic race.

And for the Republicans, right now it looks like Huckabee is ahead on the delegate count, with Romney second, and McCain third! 

A very different dynamic then if we merely look at wins and losses thus far. And in delegate math McCain was hurt by the fact New Hampshire Republicans had few delegates at stake on January 8th.   

Again, if this becomes about delegate math, then watching various place finishes in each state will become key.

In the first two weeks of these campaigns, the only thing consistent is how inconsistent the various results have been. And surprises have become the norm. We should all expect more along the way.

January 10, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (13)

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I think John McCain can make the best case for becoming the GOP nominee.He has the most experience of any presidential candidate.He shares the conservative principles of most Republicans.Senator McCain has a compelling life story which millions of Americans admire.He has the ability to draw many independent votes.I am an independent voter who believes in the right to life.I think the pro-life principles of the Republican Party are noble and courageous.I plan to vote for Senator McCain in my state's primary February 5th and for the GOP nominee in November.

Posted by: Shawn M. Hussey | Jan 10, 2008 7:25:42 PM

I think John McCain can make the best case for becoming the GOP nominee.He has the most experience of any presidential candidate.He shares the conservative principles of most Republicans.Senator McCain has a compelling life story which millions of Americans admire.He has the ability to draw many independent votes.I am an independent voter who believes in the right to life.I think the pro-life principles of the Republican Party are noble and courageous.I plan to vote for Senator McCain in my state's primary February 5th and for the GOP nominee in November.

Posted by: Shawn M. Hussey | Jan 10, 2008 7:25:44 PM

What concerns me most in the primaries ahead is the big corporations trying to determine the people's agenda, as they tend to favor the candidate who is more economically conservative and favors fair trade. Thus you see ABC News running a glowing article about Fred Thompson "stealing the show" when other more independent media didn't see it that way. One conservative commentator didn't even have Fred Thompson winning the debate. All the candidates have strengths and weaknesses, but you can only find that out by doing your own research from sources that are NOT owned by the big corporations.

Posted by: Chris Baker | Jan 11, 2008 5:45:23 PM

all i have to say is i have viewed all the canidates on all views and i agree with Thompson on just about 99% of the issues he is what america needs in my eyes cause there is bad things happening aroun in the world and Reagan did a good job why not give it to him and see what he can do with it i will not vote for Hillary cause this is the third term she will have and wont vote for Obama cause if a person is voted into an american office such as the presidency i think they should get sworn in using not the Korhan or what he is going to use i think that will insult many many american citizens cause that is what i am an AMERICAN!!

Posted by: CP | Jan 11, 2008 10:49:13 PM

Seems the NH win by Hillary may not have been a win after all. I haven't seen the story on ABC, but in 19 districts that relied on a machine count of votes has been disputed by a hand count. The machine count favored Clinton, but the hand count now shows Obama winning. Dennis Kucinich has filed for a vote recount on his own behalf. This could be interesting.

Posted by: gc | Jan 12, 2008 8:45:04 AM

The Economy needs to be discussed IN DETAIL, by each candidate as to exactly what they will do to fix our broken financial system.

Question: The 551 TRILLION Derivative Bubble has burst all over the credit card, subprime mortgage, naked shorting of stocks causing havoc at all banks and lending institutions. There is not enough solvency in all the banks on the globe to cover this bubble, so tell americans how are you going to dig americans out of this heavy ladin debt, not to mention the U.S. Government national debt is 9 TRILLION and counting with no way back to zero debt.

This next president has to be money smart, this election is NOT about the first woman president who does not have the background, emotions of steel, and smarts to run this country. Nor is it about the first black man stumping with charm on his rolling off his words of no substance in his background experience to fix america.

I believe all of the candidates need to address this issue, forget about health care, forget about pushing your minority status....tell us EXACTLY what gives you the experience and fortitude to deal with what america is facing. The best answer to this question is the best candidate for president in my book.

Posted by: janet | Jan 12, 2008 1:41:56 PM

Everyone wants their own say as to which candidate they want to win to be the nominee for their political parties. I don't want that decision left to a small group. I want my constitutional right to make my choice too.

Posted by: angie | Jan 12, 2008 2:50:42 PM

So far it seems to me that the results of caucuses and primaries have all kept the contests as open as possible. It seems likely that the Democrats have been whittled doewn to 2, but as many as 5 Republicans might come through the process with the nomination still. That must be extrordinary. I think the ral fact is that of the GOPers, McCain has to win this time as in 2012 he would certainly be too old, and Huckabee wants to win, but I wonder really if any of the others truly have much desire to win the nomination. Giuliani isn't campaigning like it, Thompson is running such an enigmatic campaign i am not sure what to make of him, and Romney I think would throw more at the campaign if he really thought he could win, and seems to be running as much as because he thinks someone should try and defend the current administration. So I would in the end imagine the Republicans will have to choose between McCain and Huckabee??

Posted by: saintlymark | Jan 12, 2008 7:40:21 PM

Huckabee is a professional con artist. He is appealing to the ire most people have about the IRS saying that he would abolish it. That can likely be done by name only. His fare tax proposal still needs a government entity to collect the tax and enforce compliance. The fare tax proposal in itself is a panacea. He claims that the overall core price of goods would decrease because corporations would not have a tax burden to share with the consumer. Give me a break! The corporations and small business owner will have to pay taxes on the goods they purchase for the services they provide or products they make. And even if they somehow did get their tax burden reduced there is no track record that they would pass that savings on to the consumer. Their stock holders or greedy wallets will keep the gain. There would be no parity for the consumer compared to now and when a fare tax would be in affect. Consumers would become much more selective of what they purchase simply because of the added tax burden at the checkout. Consumers will get nicked and dimed even more for small ticket items. Just imagine the added cost when buying durable goods. This will surely cripple a market economy. He touts being one of us and beneath those that have established a status associated with being leaned and expert in positions of complex responsibility. If he isn’t a con artist then he is indeed lowly like the common man and really needs to get a better education before taking on any responsibility associated with being the President of the United States. So he is either playing to the gullible or is truly clueless.

Posted by: lorax_mbell | Jan 13, 2008 3:38:29 AM

you are the most bias tv news and against obama

Posted by: arona | Jan 13, 2008 7:04:09 AM

Amazing... Ron Paul was the clear winner of the debate, and many of the mainstream media reports either don't even mention his name, or else go out of their way to try to discredit him.

Posted by: independant in MN | Jan 13, 2008 8:48:00 AM

Obama beat Hillary hands down in New Hampshire, but I do believe this truth will come out when the recount in New Hampshire is done. There were several voting precincts that had problems with the machines, and chips were replaced, and it was done by the same company but with a different name that rigged other elections in the past.

If I were an Obama supporter I would join forces with Kucinich to make sure Obama's votes were all tallied in. As far as the Republicans go, I think Ron Paul is the only one actually sticking to the Republican platform and the Constitution of limited government, low or income taxes, no foreign entanglements but free trade, liberty for all citizens, and the right to bear arms, and the list goes on. The highlight of the SC Repub debate on fox was when good old Ron Paul let Bret Humes have it, along with all the other wannabe Repubs but Foxnews won't air that.

Thompson did a good job, and so did Ron Paul. The others sound like paid Politicians, with the exception of McCain, he is still a warmongering POW that sounds like he is out for revenge, and wants to take it out on muslims, he sounded very racist to me. Huckabee and Guilina are too Liberal and seem to be Socialists. I hope America is paying attention. I pray to God Hillary and McCain are not nominated, we will be doomed as nation.

Posted by: tess101 | Jan 13, 2008 10:59:51 AM

Really ABCNews? Does ANYONE proofread these things? Whatever happened to English Comp 101! Here's an excerpt from above: "We all should begin considering that delegate counts is gaining in importance. And as we begin to look at those counts and what could happen, just eyeing the first place finishers may be losing sight of key dynamics." This whole piece is frought with errors. I have neither the time nor the space to list them all, but here are two that would stand out on a fourth-grade book report:

-- In the first sentence we have: "... delegate counts is..." It should be either "...[the] delegate count is..." or "...delegate counts [are]..." This is basic subject-verb agreement: counts-are or count-is.

-- The second sentence begins with a conjunction. Either finish the second sentence with a semicolon and continue the thought, continue the sentence without punctuation and use the conjunction, or end the first sentence with a period and begin the second with "As we begin...". The semicolon is a stylistic choice and isn't necessary, however, a sentence never properly begins with a conjunction.

Every single day on ABCNews.com I spot typos, grammatical errors, and countless other basic English mistakes that an international news organization should not have. Why does it matter? If you want me to trust anything you do or say as a news organization (for example, the thoroughness with which you check your sources) then you should at least be able to write properly. Failing to do so calls into question everything else you do as a professional news source. If your editors overlook such simple, basic grammatical problems then what else do they overlook?

I'm not a professional writer, but I certainly expect those employed to write for a professional news organization to be; or at least to know enough to use the spelling and grammar check on their computers. Please try to do a little better ABC.

Posted by: Jason | Jan 13, 2008 12:41:38 PM

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