« December 2007 | Main | February 2008 »

Ready, Aim, Fire

January 24, 2008 9:44 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Lordy Moses, what a last few days watching the Democratic race for president heading into the South Carolina Primary.

I have said for many months that the Hillary Clinton campaign was like the British Military during the American Revolution or India.

She had assembled all the generals and officers, she had all the fancy uniforms, they had practiced all the formations that had worked in battles in the past, everyone had their medals, and they were girded for a fight.

And for Barack Obama to win this battle, he would make a big mistake by taking the fight to the "British" in the same way and with similar plans and formations. He had to run a different type of campaign –- a more unique and unprecedented type of effort which would seek not engage the Clinton campaign on their turf.

When he has run a more original campaign which matched his message, he has been successful, and when he is confronted her in the way she and her campaign fights, he hasn't done as well.

Obama is favored to win South Carolina this weekend –- primarily because of his strength with African American voters. The big question is: will he get any momentum out of it, and how will he do on Super Tuesday?

The way he has campaigned this week, I see problems ahead for Obama. 

He is engaging the Clintons straight up on their battle formations. He is trying to send his own version of British soldiers against them, and as we all know, a more experienced British Army will beat a less experienced British Army every time.   

In my view, he needs to take a page from Gandhi (or Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr., whose holiday was celebrated this week) and not hit back in similar fashion and practice tenacity in the pursuit of truth in a non-violent way. 

Let Clintons have their "war room" and have him rise above it.   

How the debate that happened this week turns out in voters mind is an open question, but the fact that Clinton and Obama were basically reduced to the political version of a playground fight, isn't a good thing for the Obama campaign. 

If he becomes a typical politician running a typical campaign of hitting your opponent, he loses his brand. 

However, the Clintons might be making a long term mistake in the type of campaign they are running recently. They could be sowing seeds of major problems with voter groups over time (especially the general election) by alienating Obama supporters -– specifically motivated black voters and younger voters.   

Hillary could win the primary fight, and have taken the energy out of two key voter groups she needs to win the general election. 

The way the Clintons have come after Obama reminds me of a scene in the movie "The Patriot" with Mel Gibson and the late Heath Ledger.

As you may recall that mean-spirited British officer finally has enough of the Revolutionaries, so he huddles a small town of people into a Church then locks the doors and burns everyone inside alive. It helped in the short term, but was a rallying cry in the long term. 

So as we head into South Carolina, my unsolicited advice would be for the Clinton campaign to not overdue the attacks, and for the Obama campaign to go back to a less negative while still confrontational plan.   

If that were to happen, then no matter what the results, the voters would stay engaged.

And as a total aside on the Republican side, some unsolicited advice for Mitt Romney: since he seems to have deep pockets, I would buy a Super Bowl spot which would air two days before Super Tuesday. 

Produce something funny and real creative, and they would get tons of free press out of it –- no campaign has done this before!

January 24, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (158) | TrackBack (0)

Which Way Do We Go, Which Way Do We Go?

January 16, 2008 9:19 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

An interesting race just got even more interesting.

From one native son of Michigan (I was born in Detroit and was one of 11 kids who grew up there and were children of an auto industry father) to another native son, Mitt Romney, congrats on a great comeback.

So with the Michigan Republican primary just over and with Iowa and New Hampshire (and let's not forget the Wyoming votes) already put to bed, let's pause and figure out what lessons we have learned thus far.

1. It is much better right now to be the underdog and not the front runner.

In nearly every contest, the perceived frontrunner has lost, and the underdog has won. Voters are rewarding the candidate who is behind and who seems to be fighting to win more.

2. Mitt Romney seems to have recently found his voice, and he won. McCain found his independent voice in New Hampshire, and won. Obama found his voice in Iowa, won. Huckabee found his voice as well in Iowa, won. And Hillary found her voice, as she said herself, in New Hampshire, and she claimed victory. And many of the other second tier candidates just seem to be hearing voices.

Candidates ought to pay attention to the fact that when they are seen as authentic and speaking from their heart, they succeed. 

3. Every candidate right now that has faced a must win situation, has won.

Obama needed to win Iowa to show he was for real and damage Clinton's inevitability. He did.  Huckabee had to win Iowa to prove his momentum was true, and he did. Hillary had to win New Hampshire to slow Obama's momentum, and she did. McCain had to prove he had staying power in New Hampshire and that his comeback was for real, and he did.  And Mitt Romney faced a crucial test in Michigan after finishing second twice in a row, and he won.   

All the major candidates right now are proving when their back is against the wall, they gather their strength and do what is necessary. A great quality in a presidential candidate.

4. Delegate math, especially in the Republican nomination battle, is becoming increasingly important. 

As the field is very divided, with no true frontrunner, the math of number of delegates grows paramount. So not only does it matter who wins a state, but where they finish grows in import. And winner-take-all states will be a priority.

As we approach the Nevada caucuses for both parties, and the South Carolina Republican primary on Saturday, it is terribly difficult to make predictions. Other than this one: so far an unresolved race will continue to be unclear after Saturday's voting, and no one candidate will run the table any time soon. 

Look for inconsistent results and second tier candidates to finally leave the race.

January 16, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (18) | TrackBack (0)

Arrival of Arithmetic?!?

January 10, 2008 6:24 PM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Wow! Five primaries and caucuses combined so far for both parties, and five different winners.

Whether the voters are totally conscious of it, they are telling all of us that they want this primary process to continue for a while longer, and that the stakes of this election are too high to shut the process down quickly at the beginning like in years past.

So today we stand with no solid momentum garnered on either side and no real front runner. Though being the front runner these days doesn't seem to be the greatest position to be in.  I think all candidates are going to be fighting over the mantle of "underdog".

New Hampshire again showed its tendency to buck the perceived trends –- on both sides the winner of the Iowa caucus lost in New Hampshire. 

So on to Michigan for the Republicans. And Michigan could truly be the most competitive state thus far in their primary battle. 

McCain beat President Bush there in 2000, even after Bush won South Carolina, so McCain has to be given an edge. Mitt Romney was born and grew up there, and his beloved father, George, was a very popular Governor in the sixties so he should be favored. And Mike Huckabee is popular among religious conservatives, right to life voters and homeschoolers, all of who are a big constituency in Michigan.

Having been born in Detroit, and gone to public school in Michigan and still having family there, it's exciting times for many voters including some of my brothers and sisters. And because of the hits the Michigan economy has taken over the last few years due to troubles in the domestic auto industry, expect the economy and taxes to dominate the discussion.

Now on to something all of us need to consider. 

In the last 30 years, presidential nomination campaigns have been fought over and covered based on knockout blows in winning a few states, and then pushing everyone else out of the race. Today that may no longer be the best way to look at this race on both sides.

We all should begin considering that delegate counts is gaining in importance. And as we begin to look at those counts and what could happen, just eyeing the first place finishers may be losing sight of key dynamics.

Let's look at where things stand today:

For the Democrats it is a long way to a nominee being chosen, but today Hillary Clinton is ahead on delegates, with Obama second and with John Edwards picking up delegates along the way though in third.   

So as the nomination heads to Nevada, and South Carolina, and then Super Tuesday, who finishes second and in what state will be crucial in a delegate determined battle. As well as watching who nails down superdelegates along the way is something to keep in mind because the large number of them in the Democratic race.

And for the Republicans, right now it looks like Huckabee is ahead on the delegate count, with Romney second, and McCain third! 

A very different dynamic then if we merely look at wins and losses thus far. And in delegate math McCain was hurt by the fact New Hampshire Republicans had few delegates at stake on January 8th.   

Again, if this becomes about delegate math, then watching various place finishes in each state will become key.

In the first two weeks of these campaigns, the only thing consistent is how inconsistent the various results have been. And surprises have become the norm. We should all expect more along the way.

January 10, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (13) | TrackBack (0)

Surfing the Big Waves of Politics

January 06, 2008 11:04 PM

As we head into the New Hampshire primary and out of the Iowa caucus, and in the aftermath of the crucial ABC debates Saturday night, a good friend of mine in Austin, Texas reminded me of an interesting nautical story.

In marine life, there has always been the myth of monster or freak large waves that have supposedly come from nowhere and sunk ships or damaged them, or thrown ships totally off course.  For many years, the idea of rogue waves was denied or disputed, but lately research has shown the existence of these formally mythic occurrences.

Are we in the midst of a rogue political wave right now?

Despite all the resources and establishment backing and the legacy of a popular former President and being ahead for more than 20 months by 25 points nationally, Hillary Clinton finished third in Iowa and looks, as of today, that she will lose the New Hampshire primary to a young upstart freshman Senator from Illinois. 

And though Barack Obama didn’t hit any homeruns in the Saturday debate (he looked like he was coached not to make any errors and he didn’t get any hits either) and didn’t really add to his surge, Clinton didn’t stem the momentum tide coming out of Iowa.  And that was the main goal she had to accomplish.  If likeablity was a concern of hers and her staff going in, then her showing certainly didn’t help that in the least.

There are times in politics when large waves suddenly arise and no matter how much rowing and power one exerts, you can’t fight the surge.  And this may be one of those times where the Clinton operation can’t fight the rogue wave that has surfaced.   The fissures in her inevitability are widening each day. 

On the Republican side, Romney, who lost Iowa and needs to win New Hampshire, didn’t do anything positive at the debate to slow the movement for McCain that began before the Iowa caucuses.  While McCain didn’t have a stellar performance, he did enough to keep the voters on board and moving toward him as we head into election day Tuesday.   And the polls indicate today that McCain captures New Hampshire, but not by nearly as wide a margin he did in 2000.   

Huckabee, who won Iowa, seemed to be a nonfactor in the debate and looks to have resigned himself to competing more strongly in Michigan and South Carolina later in the month.

Fred Thompson seemed to have done the best, but it may be too little too late.  He is almost like the team that missed the playoffs, but wins their last game of the season, but it doesn’t matter much. 

So as of today it looks like the mythic rogue wave (Obama) may indeed be real and as I mentioned in an earlier report, once the Chicago Cubs start winning, then tons of voters will want them to win and get their hearts behind them. 

And while the Republican nomination trend is still unclear, though we should get some signal after Tuesday night, Michigan is going to be the real test of the emergence of  the leader of the GOP.

Exciting times for the country and for all of us who love politics, and are fans of underdogs in all facets of life. 

 

January 6, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (27) | TrackBack (0)

What Campaigns Must Do Now

January 04, 2008 9:56 AM

It has begun.

A very interesting night in Iowa, and now on to New Hampshire, but first let’s review some lessons we might have just learned and what that tells us going forward.

The candidates perceived as running the most positive campaigns won -- Huckabee and Obama; the candidates perceived as running the most negative lost --  Romney and Clinton.   The youngest candidates in each party also won, which shows to a large degree where the voters of this country want to go and how important change is in this election.

Money didn’t seem to matter all that much. Message and ability of candidate to connect with voters were most important.  Huckabee was way outspent and won.  And Clinton had so much more establishment resources and lost.   In fact, the candidates widely viewed as having establishment backing and being the most political and least authentic (Romney and Clinton) lost.

So, what happens next?

The candidates who won are going to be looking for any opportunity to build on the momentum, and the candidates who lost are going to be looking for any way to stop the bleeding and slow the momentum of the winners. 

And the best opportunity for both those things is the ABC debate on Saturday night – just three days before the New Hampshire primary.  It is the only real place to alter the story line if you lost or build on it if you won. 

Huckabee is going to need to prove fairly quickly that he can win votes outside of evangelical voters and that is going to be tough in New Hampshire.  He needs to prove his support isn’t limited to one group.  He needs to convey a sense of seriousness that is beyond the jovial attitude. 

Romney has to win New Hampshire.  He outspent everyone in Iowa and finished second.  And has outspent everyone in New Hampshire.  His campaign cannot survive two consecutive losses, since their original strategy was premised on winning both!  Romney also needs to figure out a way to undermine Huckabee’s authenticity, which is going to be hard coming from a candidate viewed by many as a flip-flopper.

McCain has to win New Hampshire.  He won it by 18 points eight years ago, and has no base to recover from if he loses it.  Much of his success will be contingent on the number of independents who participate in the Republican primary, and that is questionable since many independents may opt to vote in the Democratic primary now that Obama won.   He needs to continue rebuilding his independent credentials -- a good way is to point out differences with President Bush on spending.

Clinton: My expectation is that the Clinton campaign will throw the kitchen sink at Obama to try and slow him down.  Clinton made a huge mistake running a campaign premised on experience in an election all about change.  I would think they will try and undermine Obama on his change credentials.

Obama made history in Iowa and will likely have a ton of momentum.  For at least the short term, he will be the sentimental favorite, and like the Chicago Cubs, once he starts winning, voters are going to want him to win.  His goal is going to not be dragged into a mud fight with Clinton and to stay on his message of hope and healing.

Edwards has to hope that Obama and Clinton go at it toe to toe, and he can stay positive and pick up alienated votes.  He needs a second place finish to keep his campaign going. 

Exciting times. And good news for the country as voters are getting to decide the direction of the political winds. And even better news for all of us observers can sit back and watch this historic election. 

January 4, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (37) | TrackBack (0)

Rollercoaster of Emotions

January 01, 2008 8:46 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Happy New Years to you, and my wish is that 2008 brings you the first steps toward your dreams you have always held in your heart, and that you take a shot at what you desire and deserve in life starting today.

It's less than 48 hours until the Iowa caucus begins and a week until the New Hampshire primary, so I thought I would take a moment to give you some sense of what the candidates and staffs might be feeling right now. (Having been there in my previous life). 

Campaigns really are a lot like life: with emotional ups and downs throughout each day and week and month. And the ride one gets on in a campaign is as intense and draining and questioning as any experience a person has in their life – thrilling and sad, peaks and valleys, coasting and climbs. 

One thing happening is candidates and campaigns are operating on adrenalin and very little sleep especially in the aftermath of a last celebration at New Year's Eve.

Folks are probably hyped up on a combination of excited anticipation and loads of coffee or tea or diet cokes or maybe even Red Bulls. (This is a time when mistakes have a tendency to get made since exhaustion and weariness has set in, and probably a bit of testiness.)

Each person is asking themselves the question of did we do enough?

Should we have done another event? Did we do too many events? Should we have ended the campaign on a positive note (or should we have ended it negatively)?

Did we spend too much time or money in Iowa? In New Hampshire? Did we spend too little? What about our needs for later primaries?

Do we believe the latest poll numbers showing us behind because the crowds seem large and enthusiastic? (Go ahead and be an optimist -- what's there to lose at this point?)

Should we believe the poll numbers showing us ahead? Maybe we have actually fallen behind, and, oh my God, if we lose then my career is over and I signed a long-term apartment lease!!! (Your career ain't over, it just might be on a different path.) 

And as an aside, I learned more from my losses than any victories along the way -- about life and politics.

It's snowing in western Iowa, is that going to help my campaign? Hurt it? The roads are icy in Manchester, NH, who will come vote? Will my supporters show up at the caucus/primary?  (They promised, but it's cold and they may have been just being nice.)

What kinds of tricks does my opponent plan on election day? (Tricks defined broadly encompassing a last minute negative mail piece or a series of phone calls or a negative radio spot or crazy election day rallies, whatever.)

Question after question after question the candidates and campaign staff ask themselves. Trying to stay on plan and upbeat, but in a spiral of worry and concern and self-examination.

My advice for all those involved in the campaign and for those observing the campaigns is that you should sit quietly, breathe deeply, reflect on 2007 and all that you did and learned (good and bad), and then let it go.

Because the 2008 Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary are here, and at this point your destiny is pretty much out of your hands.

Enjoy the moment as best you can because you may never be given this opportunity again –- soak it in, and don't beat yourself up when it's over. And have no regrets!

You did the best you could, and you did it for the right reason regardless of which candidate you worked for!

Hold your head high and show the world what your made of no matter the results coming in, and give life a big grin as you walk your way till the next step. You already won since you followed your heart and took a chance on a risky path. 

Bravo!   

January 1, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (3) | TrackBack (0)