Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Surfing the Big Waves of Politics

January 06, 2008 11:04 PM

As we head into the New Hampshire primary and out of the Iowa caucus, and in the aftermath of the crucial ABC debates Saturday night, a good friend of mine in Austin, Texas reminded me of an interesting nautical story.

In marine life, there has always been the myth of monster or freak large waves that have supposedly come from nowhere and sunk ships or damaged them, or thrown ships totally off course.  For many years, the idea of rogue waves was denied or disputed, but lately research has shown the existence of these formally mythic occurrences.

Are we in the midst of a rogue political wave right now?

Despite all the resources and establishment backing and the legacy of a popular former President and being ahead for more than 20 months by 25 points nationally, Hillary Clinton finished third in Iowa and looks, as of today, that she will lose the New Hampshire primary to a young upstart freshman Senator from Illinois. 

And though Barack Obama didn’t hit any homeruns in the Saturday debate (he looked like he was coached not to make any errors and he didn’t get any hits either) and didn’t really add to his surge, Clinton didn’t stem the momentum tide coming out of Iowa.  And that was the main goal she had to accomplish.  If likeablity was a concern of hers and her staff going in, then her showing certainly didn’t help that in the least.

There are times in politics when large waves suddenly arise and no matter how much rowing and power one exerts, you can’t fight the surge.  And this may be one of those times where the Clinton operation can’t fight the rogue wave that has surfaced.   The fissures in her inevitability are widening each day. 

On the Republican side, Romney, who lost Iowa and needs to win New Hampshire, didn’t do anything positive at the debate to slow the movement for McCain that began before the Iowa caucuses.  While McCain didn’t have a stellar performance, he did enough to keep the voters on board and moving toward him as we head into election day Tuesday.   And the polls indicate today that McCain captures New Hampshire, but not by nearly as wide a margin he did in 2000.   

Huckabee, who won Iowa, seemed to be a nonfactor in the debate and looks to have resigned himself to competing more strongly in Michigan and South Carolina later in the month.

Fred Thompson seemed to have done the best, but it may be too little too late.  He is almost like the team that missed the playoffs, but wins their last game of the season, but it doesn’t matter much. 

So as of today it looks like the mythic rogue wave (Obama) may indeed be real and as I mentioned in an earlier report, once the Chicago Cubs start winning, then tons of voters will want them to win and get their hearts behind them. 

And while the Republican nomination trend is still unclear, though we should get some signal after Tuesday night, Michigan is going to be the real test of the emergence of  the leader of the GOP.

Exciting times for the country and for all of us who love politics, and are fans of underdogs in all facets of life. 

 

January 6, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (27)

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If only people dug a little deeper…

I am a resident of Massachusetts. I have seen first hand how what Romney did in this state. While he reduced taxes in some areas he also raised taxes in the form of fees for services. Last night Romney shrugged off fox’s question about fees claiming they only affected a small portion of the Massachusetts residents. What fees were raised? He raised the fee for a driver license, the fee to register a vehicle, the fee for an inspection sticker, the fees for setting up small businesses, and many more. The fees did affect the vast majority of Massachusetts residents.

Romney also claimed to cut government spending during his time in office. Well technically he did. He did so by not paying state employees or giving them any raises. The state employees were not paid the wages they were owed until after he left office. While paying the employees for work already done was inevitable, due to contract agreements, Romney was able to push off payment until after he was elected. He was able to make it seem like a cut in government spending while he was in office.

For a man who claimed knowledge of business and fiscal responsibility he did not show it while handling the Big Dig. The Boston area construction project that was to cost $2.6 billion, ended up costing $14.8 billion. While construction companies milked Massachusetts for everything it was worth Romney sat on the sidelines.

Posted by: Thumb | Jan 7, 2008 11:39:33 AM

Bush`s advice to Romney-When you get called on the facts, look them dead in the eye and lie. BTW, has anyone in New Hampshire seen Romney`s Amnesty attack ad against the Bush/McCain immigration bill or is "Mitt" saving it for South Carolina?

Posted by: Luke | Jan 7, 2008 11:52:54 AM

The Clinton era is over. OBAMA '08!

Posted by: Mitchel | Jan 7, 2008 12:03:17 PM

Mitt is the only candidate strong enough, articulate enough, business savvy enough, to stand up to Dems. McCain and Huckabee will be eaten alive. That's why the press are so pro "them". Hello!!!!

Posted by: DFW | Jan 7, 2008 12:21:25 PM

Romney is more qualified in economics than any of the republican GOP candidates. He has proved that in his own business, during the Salt Lake Olympics and as a governor. I am an independent, so I am not even biased!

Posted by: jojo | Jan 7, 2008 12:39:23 PM

Mitt Romney is such a stiff loser. He makes John Kerry look charismatic and popular.

Posted by: US Citizen | Jan 7, 2008 1:13:06 PM

So where is the story here? This article is nothing but opinion and comentary. We really need the press to be focused on issues and what a candidate's possition is on them; along with background context for the facts.

Posted by: lorax_mbell | Jan 7, 2008 1:25:50 PM

When was Governor Romney the Front-Runner for the GOP? ABC makes it sound like he was the front runner then got knocked off in Iowa. Fact is Governor Romney was not the front-runner - Rudy was and still is nationally. Why is ABC News attacking Romney????

Posted by: ABC is bias against GOP | Jan 7, 2008 1:58:20 PM

All the Democrats (and Republicans) who mock Romney for having changed his mind on a few issues are hypocrites! They were whining and moaning for years that Bush would not change his mind regarding Iraq when they thought it was the right thing to do. It would have been politically beneficial for Bush, as his numbers would have shot up, and the Democrats would not have taken over congress. How can these hypocrites then turn to criticize someone like Romney who saw and admitted where he was wrong, and changed? How foolish would it be to elect a President (McCain) who says he's only in this for one term and hasn't been able to change in 40 years what he now says he magically can change in Washington!? How foolish would it be to let Evangelicals propel into contention a candidate whose highest qualification for their vote is that he is not a Mormon?! Go to foxnews.com and find the videos for the undecideds going into the debates, who come out supporting Romney -- it's like 90%+. Romney is the only candidate who can claim to be an agent for change, he understands the economy better than most people on the planet, he's more articulate and smarter than ANYONE running -- is he perfect, no. But, geeze -- stop waisting your votes and muddying the water -- vote Romney, so Republicans can have a chance at keeping the white house.

Posted by: Chuck | Jan 7, 2008 3:29:45 PM

Romney turned a 2 billion dollar deficit in Mass. to a 4 billion rainy day fund. He did not recieve income from his private business during his term as Governor. He doesnt attack other canidates on personal bases, but rather brings the issues of all the canidates to the table...Why? Because his record and accomplishments are by far superior to McCain, Huckabee, or anyone else. The choice is clear.....Romney for President!!!

Posted by: independents for Romney | Jan 7, 2008 5:27:24 PM

Matthew - I'm so glad I found your blog. I thought you were terrific in your former big job (strategist for Bush/Cheney 04). I'm a big fan of your immense powers of observation.

I too am swept by this Obama wave and the excitement of hope, inspiration, something completely new is wonderful. I believe that Bill Clinton created that first wave in 1992, it's ironic that his other half is being swept by the second wave.

It's a very exiciting time. You can inspire people with words and it starts with words and actions follow.

Posted by: Ann B. | Jan 7, 2008 6:05:32 PM

When I think of Mike Huckabee I see a man who will lead us into a bright new future.

Posted by: Jim Flynt | Jan 7, 2008 6:38:58 PM

I hate people like Romney who attempt to use facts without context. Most of us know you can make facts say anything. But it is really the context of facts that matters. It is quite clear to me that Romney does not think in terms of context. He is the same type of black and white thinker that is our current President--albeit smarter and apparently more moderately inclined. I do not want the President who runs the perfect campaign. I want a President who understands shades of gray. Romney won't even allow much gray into his hair.

Posted by: Porky | Jan 7, 2008 8:44:09 PM

Hillary should bow out gracefully now and retire from politics. I am sure that some third rate community college in the mid-west might give her a part time teaching job that would help pay the bills and allow her pervert husband Bill to chase young college coeds. If Hillary played her cards right, Obama might name her as ambassador to India where Hillary's major contributors live.

Posted by: John Rowse | Jan 7, 2008 9:43:31 PM

John Rowse, don't you wish you had a chance to be in politics and make the millions they do. Hillary and Bill have over 40 million dollars and what do you have. The republicans will be glad if Obama wins so a republican will be elected president. They are glad if Hillary doesn't win the nomination because they believe they will have a harder time getting elected. But it is not over yet. There are 48 more states and who knows how they are going to vote. Will Texas, Nevada and Arizona vote Obama in? There are former president's that lost in New Hampshire and Iowa and there are presidents that won in Iowa and New Hampshire and did not become president. No one knows who is going to win the nomination. Its too early to tell.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Jan 7, 2008 10:11:14 PM

I shudder when I hear a voter say "he seems like a genuine person, or a likable guy." If you use the word" seems" in a sentence describing what made you choose a presidential candidate, you should be appointed a handler or a sane family member before you cast your ballot. And this is especially true with those voting for Huckabee on his value as a likable guy. It should be a federal offense to admit in public let alone vote for a president on the premiss of likability in this day and age. If a block of, or a majority of voters ever again get a president elected in any way, on whether he seemed nice, the sheer naiveity of it should bring on the calimity it provokes.

Posted by: larry smith | Jan 7, 2008 10:14:52 PM

john rowse; who was the president that won in iowa and new hampshire and did not become president?

Posted by: karen e | Jan 7, 2008 11:25:29 PM

Thumb,
You are misrepresenting facts about Romney. Construction for the big dig started in 1991, long before Mitt Romney became the Governor. How can you blame the cost overruns on him when for most of the construction years he was merely a citizen of the state. By your logic, you are just as much to blame for the cost overruns. You must be a McCain supporter to blatently misrepresent the facts.
Romney is by far the most experienced CEO and is for fixing the United States versus going to War which seems to be McCain's primary focus.

Posted by: John S. | Jan 8, 2008 12:32:05 AM

All I can say is, "Vote for Obama and watch us continue to go down the tube." It's amazing to me how quickly, people turn into followers. The old saying, "97% of the people are followeres and only 3% or less, are leaders," sure holds true so far, in Iowa. I now understand why the United States, is in such a mess.

Posted by: pointman | Jan 8, 2008 5:56:34 AM

Ron paul is the best choice to bring America back to the country it once was.

Posted by: AJ | Jan 8, 2008 5:57:16 AM

Sorry for the mis-spell,(followers) but being a FOLLOWER, won't solve the problems facing our nation. Overall, We are in the biggest mess ever. McCain isn't going to fix anything. He's part of the problem. Obama will never fix the heath care problem, plus he's lost on foreign policy. Hillary Clinton is surrounded with intelligent people who could fix most of the problems facing our country. But if you stop and think....how did Bush get elected? He must have had a lot of followers too.

Posted by: Pointman | Jan 8, 2008 6:11:27 AM

Hillary is actually quite a good politician. Better in some technical ways then her husband ever was. But she's made it about her past, not our future. And yesterday's tears and her comments through that were mostly still about her...her emotions, this being hard on her. Not inspirational. So perhaps not the right strategy?

Today in NH will be interesting. We should all realize that this dialogue and the many more that are happening are about a political landscape that is fascinating and a time when change is near and we all can affect that.

Posted by: tamarino | Jan 8, 2008 9:44:51 AM

Parish the "truth" be known! Supplimental(white collar criminal)
warfunding is what is short-changing
medicare,911 rescue workers,etc...
This "is"(not clinton "is") what will
differentiate any one candidate from
all others. 1 years worth of supp
warfunding can SECURE healthcare for
years!

Posted by: joseph | Jan 10, 2008 7:36:33 PM

Posted by: VPNNathan | Jan 11, 2008 3:32:54 AM

Ron Paul is the best choice to bring America back to a nation that is for all the people,not just the super rich,corporations and Neoon warmongers. A vote for any of the other GOP candidates dooms America,A recession and endless wars are on the menu if you vote for the other GOP losers. It's your choice,use your brain and disavow Rightwing hatemomgering liars like Rush and his kind.

Posted by: AJ | Jan 11, 2008 9:47:56 AM

Obama scandal. Links to Illinois state lobbyist/political fixer and monetary support for house purcahse. ABC video link below.

http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=4113725

Posted by: VPNNathan | Jan 12, 2008 8:22:29 AM

I just watched This Week's Jan. 20th roundtable and was struck by two things Mr. Dowd said:

1. If Clinton gets the nomination, will she be able to get the African-American and youth vote in November? I think this is a very salient point, and it is not limited to those two groups.

2. Will all the Republican sub-groups rally aroung McCain if he is the nominee? It depends on who the Democratic nominee is. I agree that there is enough anti-Hillary sentiment out there to pull various types of Republicans together to support the eventual candidate.

Posted by: JI | Jan 20, 2008 8:06:45 PM

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