« January 2008 | Main | March 2008 »

Race, Religion, Gender Didn't Matter

February 28, 2008 7:30 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News contributor

So, it looks like after Tuesday's contests in Ohio and Texas Barack Obama is about to turn from likely to inevitable nominee.

Going into the March 4th primaries the best we can say about where Hillary Clinton stands is that she is 0-11-2 since Super Tuesday. She has lost eleven caucuses and primaries in a row, and at best has finished in a draw on two debates (one could logically make the argument she lost both debates because she didn’t slow Obama’s momentum, but heck, why pour salt on an open wound!)

There has been much speculation recently about why Clinton has ended up in this position, and many pundits are pointing to the difficulty of her being able to run because she is a woman.

I just don't buy into that, and neither do the citizens of this country.

A year ago Clinton was up 30 points in the polls; six months ago she was up 25 points in the polls; a month ago she was up 15 points in the polls; two weeks ago she was slightly ahead; and now she is significantly behind.   

Did the public in the last few days just now discover she is a woman???? Hardly.

When Obama won Iowa the pundits were all shocked that an African American could carry a nearly all white electorate, and then when he didn’t meet expectations in New Hampshire, pundits started saying it was because of some latent racism.

Again, a terrible misread on where voters are.

In the Republican primary, there was constant talk that Mitt Romney’s failure to win was somehow linked to his Mormon religion. And then of course we find out he did better than John McCain among evangelicals at nearly every step of the way. Another misjudgment by the media and pundits of the country’s acceptance of diversity.

At many, many, many places along this campaign the public (and voters specifically) have been well ahead of where many analysts of this election are and ahead of how the campaign has been covered. 

The United States as a country has come to terms with itself over the years and is totally willing to support a woman as President, or an African-American, or someone who is a Mormon.

It's time we stopped using these labels as an excuse of why certain candidates don’t succeed.

If Hillary ends up losing, it will be because she never had a vision or a message that resonated with the majority of voters and that many voters were looking for a change candidate, and not a candidate who held out their Washington experience as crucial.

If Obama, for some unknown reason stumbles, it will be because voters no longer believed that how he conducted his campaign matched his rhetoric of hope and healing or that he made some big gaffes highlighting some preparedness argument.

And Romney lost because voters believed he was not authentic in what he said along the campaign trail on a variety of issues.

So, as one of the folks who covers this race, I think it's time we got past the old excuses and rationale based in a time gone by in the voters minds. I think we would all be better off catching up to where the voters already are in how they judge the leader they want. 

We can learn much by following the "wisdom of crowds" especially as it relates to ancient labels. 

February 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (175) | TrackBack (0)

Team Clinton Faces Fielder's Choice

February 21, 2008 7:26 AM

What happens when a baseball team near the end of a season goes 0-10 and each is loss is by an ever increasing lopsided margin?

New strategies are employed during the losing streak to try and win -- change the batting order, bring new players in, yell at the team, change up the practice schedule. Many, many things are done to simply try to stop accumulating losses.

But the longer the losing streak goes on, the worse it gets. Teammates begin questioning themselves and each other. Coaches are questioned and berated. Team members begin speaking out to the sports media about whose fault it is. And errors on the field increase as folks lose confidence . It is a seemingly inevitable losing death spiral.

When the losing team finally faces the situation and looks in the mirror in the midst of a streak like this, it is confronted with a key decision.

Either the team decides it still has a chance to get in the playoffs (even if that is improbable) and it looks for the first available opportunity for a victory, and throws the entire kitchen sink at the opposing team.

Or the team decides in this moment of key decision that the playoffs aren’t likely, and it begins to plan for the next season.  In doing this the team rests key players, begins to rebuild positive connection and communication among all players and coaches and the league.  The team finishes the season on a more positive, uplifting note so fans and other teams can remember the team fondly, even if it ultimately didn't fulfill its dream of victory.

After losing overwhelmingly in Hawaii and Wisconsin this week to Barack Obama, this is exactly where Hillary Clinton and her campaign team find themselves.  And the key moment coming up is today’s debate in Austin, Texas (or, possibly, in a few more days, at the Feb 26 debate in Ohio). 

So she and her team have, I believe, two avenues to choose between:

1 -- either they believe the can still salvage the season and make the playoffs, and thus I would see this being reflected in a take-no-prisoners and throw-the-kitchen-sink attacks at Obama in the debates, or

2-- they understand the season is lost, and begin to make nice, and not be perceived as sore losers.  And thus end the season so it can be remembered positively by voters and the Democratic party.

The tone and substance of how Hillary Clinton conducts herself in tonight’s debate will answer which choice the team has made at this time.  (Though Clinton’s inability to congratulate Obama on his Wisconsin victory may tell us which avenue they are headed towards).  If not, the next debate in Ohio may give us a firmer picture -- since tonight's debate in Austin may simply be too soon for the Clinton team to understand the stark reality of the situation.

Play Ball!

February 21, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (188) | TrackBack (0)

Opinion: Obama Will Win Nomination

February 11, 2008 2:30 PM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

To get right to the point, I believe Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination setting the table for a great race for the fall.

Here's why:

In doing the math on delegates, it looks highly likely that Obama will end up with a pledged delegate lead when all this is finished by June. Even if Hillary wins some big states along the way, Obama will score enough delegates to keep his count moving.

The super delegates (those 796 party folks who can decide on their own who to vote for and change their mind along the way) will be in an unenviable position when all is said and done. They will be getting unbelievable pressure, especially by the Clintons and their establishment backing, to "pledge" to one or the other.

But here is the deal: how does a party who has protested and screamed and yelled about counting all the votes, that the popular vote matters most, that an election was stolen by the Supreme Court in 2000, go against the votes and participation by voters in the Primary process???

The answer is: I think it's impossible for the Democratic party establishment to go against voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses.

It would be an untenable position for the super delegates to award the nomination to a candidate who is behind in the pledged delegate count. And if that was to happen, then the November election becomes a very difficult prospect in motivating voters who backed Obama in the nomination process. And since he seems to be the only one inspiring new voters to the polls, it is hard to dampen that enthusiasm.

So the bottom line is: Obama wins the plurality of pledged delegates, then the super delegates really have to go along with what the voters want. Otherwise, what kind of authenticity would the Democratic party have if it is not about counting the votes and it becomes the decision of the Democratic version of the Supreme Court???

Obama wins; then faces John McCain in the general election in an epic generational battle between two candidates who are calling the country to a sense of common interest and who are both about bringing the country together across party lines.

Now that would be a campaign worth the price of admission. 

February 11, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (1124) | TrackBack (0)

Watching the Super Tuesday Results

February 05, 2008 10:41 AM

What to look for as you’re watching tonight's returns:

Expect a good night for McCain. And just how good it will be you will be able to tell by watching the returns in  Illinois.  McCain wins that state, then he wins big that night and be all but the nominee.

For the Democrats, if I had to pick one state to watch it would be Missouri.  It’s a mix of urban and rural, black and white, and East and West.   Whoever carries it, you have to feel like the wind is a bit behind their backs. 

And depsite all of that, you can't underestimate the importance of the California results - which might not even be clear by the end of what promises to be a very long night. The trajectory path of both nominations will be determined by the California results.

John McCain’s solid, though not overwhelming, victory in Florida has given him all the lift he could have dreamed of going into Super Tuesday when about half the delegates will be chosen for the Republican nomination. Add to that key victory the very high profile endorsements he picked up last week and the result is some very powerful momentum.

Some argue that Romney’s money can keep him competitive and make things even with McCain.  No way!  If you gave Romney truth serum and asked him to pick money or momentum, he would take momentum in a second.

At this point, McCain’s destiny is back in his hands.  Absent him messing up, falling down, or some new information surfacing, he is likely to win very big today.  Romney can’t do much to change that at this point. Only McCain can torpedo McCain.

For the Democrats, the race is far more unclear.   Hillary still maintains a slight advantage with her established organization and her slight lead in the polls, but Obama is rising fast.  The key question today: is he rising fast enough to catch her?

The Democratic debate in California last week set the critical tone for these final days of the Super Tuesday push.

First, it was simply a historic moment for our country to see an African-American and a woman standing on that stage – know that one of them is about to secure a major party endorsement in this country for the first time ever.   

Second, the Democratic candidates have figured out they need to start playing nice if they want to pull together a coalition headed into the November general election.  It is absolutely crucial for Hillary’s supporters to feel good about Obama, and for Obama’s supporters to be enthusiastic about Hillary. 

Third, this debate demonstrated clearly the difference in approaches of these two candidates.  Hillary shows she is adept at the practice and the process of politics; Obama shows he is versed in the poetry of politics.  And Democratic voters are going to have to figure out which style they want as their nominee. 

Fourth, both candidates did very well, and showed command of the issues and the stage.  Watching this debate, one felt they each had the gravitas and leadership ability to be President, and one could envision either one having the capacity to sit in the Oval Office.   That’s a big hurdle in these elections.  And that fact alone means you have to give Obama the edge.  His weakness coming in among some voters was the question of preparedness to be President.  He has cleared that hurdle.  But whether that will be enough, will be seen – at least in part – tonight.

February 5, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (16) | TrackBack (0)