Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Opinion: Obama Will Win Nomination

February 11, 2008 2:30 PM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

To get right to the point, I believe Barack Obama is going to win the Democratic nomination setting the table for a great race for the fall.

Here's why:

In doing the math on delegates, it looks highly likely that Obama will end up with a pledged delegate lead when all this is finished by June. Even if Hillary wins some big states along the way, Obama will score enough delegates to keep his count moving.

The super delegates (those 796 party folks who can decide on their own who to vote for and change their mind along the way) will be in an unenviable position when all is said and done. They will be getting unbelievable pressure, especially by the Clintons and their establishment backing, to "pledge" to one or the other.

But here is the deal: how does a party who has protested and screamed and yelled about counting all the votes, that the popular vote matters most, that an election was stolen by the Supreme Court in 2000, go against the votes and participation by voters in the Primary process???

The answer is: I think it's impossible for the Democratic party establishment to go against voters in the Democratic primaries and caucuses.

It would be an untenable position for the super delegates to award the nomination to a candidate who is behind in the pledged delegate count. And if that was to happen, then the November election becomes a very difficult prospect in motivating voters who backed Obama in the nomination process. And since he seems to be the only one inspiring new voters to the polls, it is hard to dampen that enthusiasm.

So the bottom line is: Obama wins the plurality of pledged delegates, then the super delegates really have to go along with what the voters want. Otherwise, what kind of authenticity would the Democratic party have if it is not about counting the votes and it becomes the decision of the Democratic version of the Supreme Court???

Obama wins; then faces John McCain in the general election in an epic generational battle between two candidates who are calling the country to a sense of common interest and who are both about bringing the country together across party lines.

Now that would be a campaign worth the price of admission. 

February 11, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (1127)

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I agree!!! Hilary is toast!!

Posted by: michaelinphilly | Feb 11, 2008 10:07:01 AM

for some reason, the media is really against Hillary. They focused this week on Obama's fundraising (Hillary actually raised more). They focused on Obama's speeches (yet he didn't say one thing about actually DOING anything if elected).

Why are we letting the media decide whom we should vote for?

Obama has yet to say where he stands on many issues (like choice). His website doesn't even say where he stands on issues. He is a fantastic speaker...but we need more than a fancy spokesperson for our President. We need someone who takes a stand on issues and has the experience...and relationships..to get things done.

Posted by: terrie | Feb 11, 2008 10:11:46 AM

Let's pray that Hillary wins in spite of the media and the Republican strategists wanting Obama. Hillary is the only one who can clean up the Republican mess and help the little person. Obama is still wet behind the ears.

Posted by: Doreen | Feb 11, 2008 10:17:26 AM

Let's pray that Hillary wins in spite of the media and the Republican strategists wanting Obama. Hillary is the only one who can clean up the Republican mess and help the little person. Obama is still wet behind the ears.

Posted by: Doreen | Feb 11, 2008 10:17:35 AM

Come on Terry, i may not yet be a great Obama support but his saturday speech included issues on universal health care, shipping jobs back to the US, ending the Iraq war. Unless ofcourse you did not listen in. I like Hillary

Posted by: Shem Edmond | Feb 11, 2008 10:20:12 AM

When the inevitable finally hits you in the face like a cool wind in the san francisco night, what will rush in to stop the way you need to go? The SUPREMES??? The colicky republican party??? The super dooper delegatos???? The bush cheeny martial law???? THE FBI??? THE CIA???? Film at eleven...

Posted by: daddyblue | Feb 11, 2008 10:21:09 AM

Hi michaelinphilly,

I agree Obama did not explained his position on issues and policies publicly during his early campaign. But nowdays if you listen to his most of the speeches and debates, he is hitting hard on his policies. Health care,Iraq and economy. Just don't cry saying about his stand on the policies without going through it. His health plan is best of the best. He does not want to mandate the health care but he want to make it affordable so that everyone can buy it. Actually in the sense it is universal health care while Clinton wants it to make mandatory and fine if not bought. Anything which is mandatory is not going to work since if you force someone who is making minimum wage like $7 per hour how can you justify making the health care mandatory. Someone will buy the dinner first and then health insurance. College students are the perfect examples. On Iraq he is very much clear than anyone. He says that he is going to consult with the advisers and bring the troops home within 16 months. Also on economy he wants to give immediate tax relief to the middle class. The retired senior citizens who are making less than $50,000 dont have to pay tax. Isn't this new and extraordinary policies?

Clinton also want to make similar changes in the policies but Obama just wont talk about it but will make it happen since he knows how to bring the people together and get it done. Imagine a President who has all the novel ideas but dont know how to get it passed in the senate, how good those policies will be which can not pass through senate and congress and become law.

So think about it. He is not talker but doer and he knows how to get it done.

Posted by: Samyr | Feb 11, 2008 10:29:16 AM

Hillary is full of hot air!!! Obama is the man for change,Im tired of the same ole same ole mess,can we have some one other than the Clintons or Bushes running things? OBAMA '08!!!!!

Posted by: kevin | Feb 11, 2008 10:31:50 AM

The last sentence of this commentary says the whole thing. The Obama/McCain race is what the media wants to cover.
Think of the drama! And since when do the voters get it right. Remember it was the voters who elected Richard Nixon and George W.twice. Of course, if it comes down to the super delegates, the Clinton's will be accused of being manipulative. It is really a shame how Obama has been shoved down our throats.

Posted by: tonysi11 | Feb 11, 2008 10:32:09 AM

Matthew,

We The People of the "United", I repeate, "United" States of America IN ORDER TO FORM A MORE PERFECT UNION...has found our own Voice...PEOPLE GET READYYYYY......Ain't No Stopping Us Now!!!!!!

Get this: HILLARY CLINTON WILL """NOT""" BE THE PRESIDENT,
IF OBAMA AND JOHN EDWARDS DID NOTTTTTTT RUN!

Posted by: MS KITTI | Feb 11, 2008 10:33:25 AM

If, as you suggest in this post, the Democratic party's paramount interest should be in every vote getting counted, Sen. Clinton is the choice. Why? She's won nearly all of the primaries--the only place where every voter has reasonable access and an opportunity to actually cast a vote under conditions that Americans have spilled blood for for over two centuries, the secret ballot. A bunch of upscale elitists speaking out loud about their preference at a caucus is not voting. And its not democratic. In addition, if the will of over 2 million Floridians amd Michganders who actually voted--yep, secret ballot and all--is taken into account, its not even close.

Posted by: Joe B | Feb 11, 2008 10:33:41 AM

I completely agree with this analysis. If the super delegates end up snubbing the candidate who wins the majority of the elected delegates then the dems will lose in November. After all if ar candidate can't even win the majority (or at least a plurality) of their own party's voters how could they win in a national election.

Whoever gets the most votes ought to win. Isn't that the American way?

Posted by: JT Smith | Feb 11, 2008 10:34:59 AM

Visit barackobama.com and learn the issues , hillary supporters like hillary and bill are all lairs obama has adressed the issues much more than hillary ,visit their websites and see the clear difference(obama plans to form a working majority and move the country forward), if hillary can't manage and take charge of her campaign and finances how will she be able to take care of our country and our economy, hillary is not bill why can't you guys get it.

Posted by: bindex | Feb 11, 2008 10:35:55 AM

Terrie...Barack Obama has specific plans on all the same issues as Clinton. He has given details about many of them in speeches, debates, interviews, and on his website (you must not have looked under the "ISSUES" tab). "Choice" is the issue that Hillary falsely attacked him on in NH and IA. I'm from NH and received the false flyer in the mail right before the primary. It claimed he was not pro-choice. In fact, he is 100% pro-choice and has always been. He is an extremely strong proponent of women and women's rights. Because of the false flyers Clinton sent out many of her supporters from the National Organization for Women switched to Obama. His "present" votes in the Illinois Senate relating to "choice" issues were part of a strategy by Planned Parenthood to keep anti-choice legislation from passing. Hillary and he have basically the same amount of experience. She truly cannot count being the first lady of Arkansas and the US as experience. Elected experience working for constituents--Obama actually has more. He may be younger in age but he has far greater judgement and wisdom (and yes, he is a fantastic speaker).

Posted by: JoAnne | Feb 11, 2008 10:42:35 AM

The Hillary supporters are just blind supporters. Look at the number of people Obama is pulling in each primary and caucus states. Each time atleast thrice the number of people are showing up to support Obama than Hillary. What does it say? The people choice is Obama and not Hillary. Can anyone imagine pulling at least 10,000 people in the state line Maine? He is going to Win popular vote. Hillary won the states like NY, NJ, MA and CA. Then what? These are the democratic states. She did not do good in red states at all but lost by 3:1 margin. 47% people dont like her compare to 31% for Obama.

Clintons just like to downgrade the someone efforts saying "Oh we knew that we are not going to win in the states like LA,WA,NE and Maine. What people in those states must be thinking about Clinton. She not only downgrades her opponent but the people in the states she lost. So she is not uniting the country but dividing it and its not going to help her.

Posted by: Samyr | Feb 11, 2008 10:43:13 AM

If Obama wins and want my vote in November, I want to hear how we are going to change and nothing about movements. Me and most of Hispanic don't get impressed by speeches. So far what we see is a cult not because of the candidate (he has not fault in the fanatism of his followers), but because the biased press and the horrible fanatics! If he cannot do this I prefer 4 more years of Republican nogovernment.

Posted by: Jose | Feb 11, 2008 10:45:02 AM

WE THE PEOPLE.....WE TALK TOO MUCH...LISTEN, ESCHUCHENN...

Talking about Obama does not have experience....He is 'not' AFRAID TO COMMUNICATE WITH PEOPLE THAT DO NOTTTTTT LOOK LIKE HIM!!! HE WILL BRING THE ""UNITED"" STATES THE
R-E-S-P E-C-T BACK FROM OTHER COUNTRIES WE HAVE LONG LOST BECAUSE BUSH DID NOT COMMUNICATEEEEE!!!

How much experience/knowledge did Bush have....You want Dumb & Dumber???

Obama:
HAS THE RELATIONSHIP/ABILITY TO TALK WITH AFRICA, IRAQ, INDONESIA, CHINA, JAPAN, KENYA, ETC....CHINA & JAPAN MAY NOT WANT TO TALK WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA. HE WILL HAVE SOMEONE IN HIS CABINET TO DO THE BIDDING FOR THE INTEREST OF THE ""UNITED"" STATES OF AMERICA!

Posted by: MS KITTI | Feb 11, 2008 10:45:48 AM

WE THE PEOPLE.....WE TALK TOO MUCH...LISTEN, ESCHUCHENN...

Talking about Obama does not have experience....He is 'not' AFRAID TO COMMUNICATE WITH PEOPLE THAT DO NOTTTTTT LOOK LIKE HIM!!! HE WILL BRING THE ""UNITED"" STATES THE
R-E-S-P E-C-T BACK FROM OTHER COUNTRIES WE HAVE LONG LOST BECAUSE BUSH DID NOT COMMUNICATEEEEE!!!

How much experience/knowledge did Bush have....You want Dumb & Dumber???

Obama:
HAS THE RELATIONSHIP/ABILITY TO TALK WITH AFRICA, IRAQ, INDONESIA, CHINA, JAPAN, KENYA, ETC....CHINA & JAPAN MAY NOT WANT TO TALK WITH PRESIDENT OBAMA. HE WILL HAVE SOMEONE IN HIS CABINET TO DO THE BIDDING FOR THE INTEREST OF THE ""UNITED"" STATES OF AMERICA!

Posted by: MS KITTI | Feb 11, 2008 10:45:52 AM

Bindex, YOu are asking women to reason and use judgment which, let's face it, they're not equipped to do. Obama is a better candidate in EVERY respect than this witch. Actually, even any GOP nominee would be a better choice than Billary.

Posted by: Richard, Memphis, TN | Feb 11, 2008 10:47:07 AM

Be prepared to eat your words.

HILLARY '08

Posted by: Alex T | Feb 11, 2008 10:49:54 AM

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