Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
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Race, Religion, Gender Didn't Matter
February 28, 2008 7:30 AM
Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News contributor
So, it looks like after Tuesday's contests in Ohio and Texas Barack Obama is about to turn from likely to inevitable nominee.
Going into the March 4th primaries the best we can say about where Hillary Clinton stands is that she is 0-11-2 since Super Tuesday. She has lost eleven caucuses and primaries in a row, and at best has finished in a draw on two debates (one could logically make the argument she lost both debates because she didn’t slow Obama’s momentum, but heck, why pour salt on an open wound!)
There has been much speculation recently about why Clinton has ended up in this position, and many pundits are pointing to the difficulty of her being able to run because she is a woman.
I just don't buy into that, and neither do the citizens of this country.
A year ago Clinton was up 30 points in the polls; six months ago she was up 25 points in the polls; a month ago she was up 15 points in the polls; two weeks ago she was slightly ahead; and now she is significantly behind.
Did the public in the last few days just now discover she is a woman???? Hardly.
When Obama won Iowa the pundits were all shocked that an African American could carry a nearly all white electorate, and then when he didn’t meet expectations in New Hampshire, pundits started saying it was because of some latent racism.
Again, a terrible misread on where voters are.
In the Republican primary, there was constant talk that Mitt Romney’s failure to win was somehow linked to his Mormon religion. And then of course we find out he did better than John McCain among evangelicals at nearly every step of the way. Another misjudgment by the media and pundits of the country’s acceptance of diversity.
At many, many, many places along this campaign the public (and voters specifically) have been well ahead of where many analysts of this election are and ahead of how the campaign has been covered.
The United States as a country has come to terms with itself over the years and is totally willing to support a woman as President, or an African-American, or someone who is a Mormon.
It's time we stopped using these labels as an excuse of why certain candidates don’t succeed.
If Hillary ends up losing, it will be because she never had a vision or a message that resonated with the majority of voters and that many voters were looking for a change candidate, and not a candidate who held out their Washington experience as crucial.
If Obama, for some unknown reason stumbles, it will be because voters no longer believed that how he conducted his campaign matched his rhetoric of hope and healing or that he made some big gaffes highlighting some preparedness argument.
And Romney lost because voters believed he was not authentic in what he said along the campaign trail on a variety of issues.
So, as one of the folks who covers this race, I think it's time we got past the old excuses and rationale based in a time gone by in the voters minds. I think we would all be better off catching up to where the voters already are in how they judge the leader they want.
We can learn much by following the "wisdom of crowds" especially as it relates to ancient labels.
February 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (177)
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What polls are you looking at? This is the media bias at its best. Wake up and smell the coffee. Clinton is still ahead by 5-10 points in Ohio, tied in Texas, and ahead by 10 in RI. This is not news, its bias, shameful, and disrespectful of a candidate that is better equiped than Obama to take on the hardest job in the world. Not to mention that if you look at the popular vote they are less than 300k votes apart, and that is very close considering 5-10% of Ohio's democratic voters is way more than 300k. Lets get back to covering the campaign instead of this negative bias towards Clinton. It doesn't do me or any citizen in America any good.
Posted by: Mike | Feb 28, 2008 7:55:17 AM
If Obama beats Clinton it's because the media has chosen to keep a halo around Obamas head instead of reporting real news or instead of reporting anything "bad" about him for one day and moving on. If the KKK had come out and said they supported Clinton and if she said she denounced what they stood for when asked if she would reject their support that would have been on the front page of every news paper in the US but let Farrakhan say he supports Obama and we get a lame excuse from Obama instead of just saying YES i reject his support and that doesn't make it very far in the Media. Or lets talk about Obamas relationship with Ayers or does the media once again want to pretend Obama has nothing to hide? It's a discrace the media is so afraid of being called a racist by not going after Obama the way they don't hesitate to go after any white man or woman. When did reporters stop investigating and reporting real news?
Posted by: Niks2008 | Feb 28, 2008 7:55:53 AM
Yeah, whatever, Matthew. Spoken as a true republican white man. Totally unaware that bias against women exists in politics, and pretty much everywhere. Hillary is hitting the same glass ceiling we all hit, in the workplace, in government, in the community. Women are just simply viewed as less able to lead. We can't make any mistakes, or it's used as a reason NOT to promote us, not to give us the big project, or not to vote for us. A man, can make mistakes all day, and be forgiven. We've seen this over and over in this election.. the media fawning over Obama, ignoring his missteps while playing every one of Clinton's ad nausium. And you know what, american women see it in the workplace too. That useless guy you work with who does NO WORK and gets promoted while you do all the dirty work and get no recognition. It's the same damn movie.
Women have to work twice as hard, to get half as far. We still make less money than men for the same job, and we aren't equally represented in government, or in the levels of corporate power. Hillary Clinton is not perfect by a long shot, but she is more qualified than Obama. And if you think the fact that she's a woman, and that the media constantly badgers every mistake she makes isn't a factor.. well, you are DREAMING.
Not that I wouldn't expect this from you, or any other GOPer. They like to tell women that inequality doesn't exist, and it's a GOOD thing that women are never trusted with power in the GOP. How many GOP senators and congressmen are women? Only a few. How many female presidential or VP candidates have the repubs had? That's right.. ZERO. And it will stay that way. White men still control this country. And in this election it's clear... white men would rather have a black man as president than a woman. Even polls back me up.. look them up. Women are supposed to somehow ACCEPT our second class position in this country. Accept that a man, any man, even one with NO experience, will be chosen over the most qualified woman. The world is watching, and my international friends are STUNNED by this election. We have lost SO MUCH crediblity.
Sexism is still tolerated here in the USA, while racism is not. That's the bottom line.
Posted by: An opinion | Feb 28, 2008 8:02:58 AM
Yeah, whatever, Matthew. Spoken as a true republican white man. Totally unaware that bias against women exists in politics, and pretty much everywhere. Hillary is hitting the same glass ceiling we all hit, in the workplace, in government, in the community. Women are just simply viewed as less able to lead. We can't make any mistakes, or it's used as a reason NOT to promote us, not to give us the big project, or not to vote for us. A man, can make mistakes all day, and be forgiven. We've seen this over and over in this election.. the media fawning over Obama, ignoring his missteps while playing every one of Clinton's ad nausium. And you know what, american women see it in the workplace too. That useless guy you work with who does NO WORK and gets promoted while you do all the dirty work and get no recognition. It's the same damn movie.
Women have to work twice as hard, to get half as far. We still make less money than men for the same job, and we aren't equally represented in government, or in the levels of corporate power. Hillary Clinton is not perfect by a long shot, but she is more qualified than Obama. And if you think the fact that she's a woman, and that the media constantly badgers every mistake she makes isn't a factor.. well, you are DREAMING.
Not that I wouldn't expect this from you, or any other GOPer. They like to tell women that inequality doesn't exist, and it's a GOOD thing that women are never trusted with power in the GOP. How many GOP senators and congressmen are women? Only a few. How many female presidential or VP candidates have the repubs had? That's right.. ZERO. And it will stay that way. White men still control this country. And in this election it's clear... white men would rather have a black man as president than a woman. Even polls back me up.. look them up. Women are supposed to somehow ACCEPT our second class position in this country. Accept that a man, any man, even one with NO experience, will be chosen over the most qualified woman. The world is watching, and my international friends are STUNNED by this election. We have lost SO MUCH crediblity.
Sexism is still tolerated here in the USA, while racism is not. That's the bottom line.
Posted by: An opinion | Feb 28, 2008 8:03:04 AM
Thanks Matt for your insights. Perhaps a few of the elitist colleagues of your profession will soon be able to get beyond the tired cliches of the past and analyze things as they really are. The mainstream media needs to get over it's self-righteous knee-jerk liberalism and adapt to the post-modern world in which we live.
Posted by: petee | Feb 28, 2008 8:04:12 AM
Did you both think of that on your own or take it from Mr. Penn's talking points? BOTH campaigns internals show a tight race in both TX and OH, Obama advantage in TX, and Clinton advantage in OH. Nobody knows how the late deciders will go. We do have REAL evidence of 11 straight Obama victories, including a 17% win in Wisconsin -- supposedly country more friendly to her campaign. The journalists are reporting what the see. Stop this irritating whining and accept the reality -- the voters thus far have favored Obama over Clinton. Let's get real! Sorry, was that plagiarism?
Posted by: JJet | Feb 28, 2008 8:05:15 AM
Mr Dowd this absolutely has to do with Clinton being a woman. And, as I said before, don't insult all women and men who have objected to the gendered and often openly mysoginistic treatment of Hillary's candidacy. We have been objecting for a long time.
Sexism has been aok in this campaign and the disgust among women especially democratic women is papable.
If Mr Obama is nominated I seriously doubt he will gain the white house.
Posted by: s.b. | Feb 28, 2008 8:06:38 AM
Well, when the major media outlets and reporters are basically being Obama's public relations spokespersons it certainly makes it easier for people to vote for Obama. But in real life where you constantly hear, especially men, calling Hillary Clinton that "B--ch" with such heated anger behind it, one has to wonder what that is all about. It seems that even the most racially prejudial white man would vote for a man, even if they are racially predjudice against that man, rather than vote for Hillary Clinton. Now, personnally speaking, I like all the candidates running and feel that whoever Americans pick as the next President none of them could ever mess up the country as much as our current President Bush has done. But lets face facts and reality, the media is all over promoting Obama and singing his praises and basically being his greatest public relations advocates. I don't see that happening for either Clinton or McCain or any other prior candidate in this race. But I worry that once the race is narrowed down to just two candidates then the media might change their tune and start printing more negative press about Obama. So then I would wonder just what was the true agenda of certain media execs, to make certain Hillary lost and then switch their support to the Republican candidate, or just to make certain Hillary didn't get in to office? Of course, in your opinion, maybe all women who take a stance against your article and opinion are just "B--chs" themselves.
Posted by: Carole | Feb 28, 2008 8:09:05 AM
Another thing Mr Dowd,
Women make up 55-60% of teh ddemocratic vote in EVERY state.
Blacks are concentrated in states that are either red or blue, and will make less of an impact for the white house race.
A shift of 2% of democratic women voters will lose the white house for the democrats.
Obama by the way, has not won the democratic vote. Not by a long shot.
Posted by: s.b. | Feb 28, 2008 8:12:53 AM
SB,
Don't try to tell Obamacans that clinton's voters won't come over to his camp. He's already declared publically that we are all in his corner. Arrogance? Maybe.
And Matthew- you have a daughter, right? Ask yourself this question, would you want your daughter to be subjected to the hatred and negativity Hillary has been subject to? You know, that's the world you are sending her into, right? And by denying sexism, you are saying she won't ever come across it. You aren't preparing her or yourself for the realities. Think about that.
Posted by: An opinion | Feb 28, 2008 8:18:38 AM
well, whatever.may the best man..the best woman win
Posted by: joy | Feb 28, 2008 8:30:23 AM
Mr. Dowd,
Are you by any chance realted to Maureen Dowd of the New York Times? You certainly have amazingly similar views/biases.
Posted by: Crandall | Feb 28, 2008 8:43:37 AM
Mr. Dowd,
Are you by any chance related to Maureen Dowd of the New York Times? You certainly have amazingly similar views/biases.
Posted by: Crandall | Feb 28, 2008 8:43:56 AM
An opinion: you sound like a shrew. No let me rephrase: you are a shrew. You must be so charming to be around. Racism and sexism exist first and foremost in the minds of the bitter, resentful, and failed. What easier way to blame all your failures on how you think others perceive you. In this country if you have ovaries or excess pigment in your skin you can write your own check. And what's all this venom against GOP? It's the Dems that are grappling with which "victimized" candidate they should stand behind: the black man or the white woman. You see, the Dems perpetuate this kind of victimhood and it is biting them right in the behind. Take your bitterness elsewhere and get a life. God there is nothing more distasteful than someone who is so quick to point the finger at others without first looking in the mirror.
Posted by: stop2think | Feb 28, 2008 8:46:51 AM
Is there gender bias? Of course. Was Obama given a 'free ride'? To a certain extent, yes. But, I think you have a point, Matt. Everyone didn't discover Hillary was a woman right before super Tuesday. I am a woman who staunchly supported Hillary at first, not because she was a woman, but I saw her as the more viable democratic candidate. However, after reading Obama's web site and books, and listening to him (not reading what was printed ABOUT him), I began to waver in my choice and I now will vote for him. I prefer his message. I have been criticized for my decision on these posts, but this is America, so I ignore it. I'm glad that so many voters are enlightened enough not to vote for or against a candidate simply because ot race, gender or religion. It's pretty obvious that many any Clinton supporters would switch to Obama should he win since so many have already apparently done so.
Posted by: prairie town | Feb 28, 2008 8:51:43 AM
Hillary went negative as the fighter she is and Obama stayed positive. Obama played a shrewd game and has topped Clinton. Plus, there's probably a majority of people in this country that don't want the Clintons back in office. It's not all her fault. It's mostly Bill's fault. The Republican attack machine is already painting Obama as a Muslim ready to let America be defeated by Al Qaeda. This is what they do best so Obama had better be prepared to fight back and fight hard. Play up the lobbyist thing on McCain.
Posted by: Bob | Feb 28, 2008 8:56:07 AM
Hillary went negative as the fighter she is and Obama stayed positive. Obama played a shrewd game and has topped Clinton. Plus, there's probably a majority of people in this country that don't want the Clintons back in office. It's not all her fault. It's mostly Bill's fault. The Republican attack machine is already painting Obama as a Muslim ready to let America be defeated by Al Qaeda. This is what they do best so Obama had better be prepared to fight back and fight hard. Play up the lobbyist thing on McCain.
Posted by: Bob | Feb 28, 2008 8:57:09 AM
Shrew. Another deragatory name to use against a woman. Thanks for proving my point.. stop to think. Have a strong opinion as a woman? You are a shrew. Or a B*&^%, or worse. And again, how many women are in high positions in the GOP? Compare that to the democrats. Proof is in the pudding, pal. ARe the democrats perfect, no, far from it, they've proven in this election they have gender bias as well.
Is gender bias the only factor in this election, no. But to claim somehow that it's not a factor, is just ridiculous.
Posted by: An opinion | Feb 28, 2008 8:57:23 AM
The media did not mismanage Senator Clinton's campaign. Wastful spending on $1,200 worth of donuts in Iowa, paying high priced over rated conslutants, staying in high priced fany hotels, and not campaigning in cacus states have done her in. The media coverage has been fair to Sentor Clinton.
Posted by: Barnes | Feb 28, 2008 8:59:09 AM
Sean, I emailed you after the 2004 race and told you the republican’s better start working then to find someone dynamic and good looking for 08, because the media would stop at nothing to get a demo in, it is all over the Supreme Court.
You pushed the Giuliani machine, not Romney till it was too late.
I'm probably more conservative than you, but talk radio left us like Reagan talks about the democrats leaving him. You and Boortz keep harping about the rich paying most of the taxes, even though my ancestory had their blood spilled so that these companies and exucutives could make all this money, i guess we don't owe them and their linage anything for giving their lives. You didn't fall in with Romney till it was too late. Boortz whom i used to like blames anti-abortion zealots, i blame you guys for hanging in with the big money machine till it was to late BIG BUSINESS, low wage scale, illegal imm.. Boortz and you didn't really give a rip about immigration till you felt the growl of the silent majority. We the people want a person that cares that a company and their dupes are not conspiring to ship our jobs across our borders as well as flooding our jobs with cheap labor, Obama seems too, all we get from you and Boortz as well as others is "the top 1% pay 27-37% of the taxes, as far as boortz is concerned anti-life, it's to bad that he didn't have to worry about his mom aborting him, i consider him to be a hysterical @ool, now.
You need to think about your base and whether you’re loosing yours.
Maybe we need a good house cleaning the hillbilly and McCain are the same old machine. Looks like Obama is it, like spit.
It's to bad about the Supreme court, I guess Boortz will get his wish, but i as male think that my body is mine and that i should not have to register with the selective service for war to die for somebody that might want to abort me, like Boortz.
Posted by: aaron lance | Feb 28, 2008 8:59:51 AM
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