Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Race, Religion, Gender Didn't Matter

February 28, 2008 7:30 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News contributor

So, it looks like after Tuesday's contests in Ohio and Texas Barack Obama is about to turn from likely to inevitable nominee.

Going into the March 4th primaries the best we can say about where Hillary Clinton stands is that she is 0-11-2 since Super Tuesday. She has lost eleven caucuses and primaries in a row, and at best has finished in a draw on two debates (one could logically make the argument she lost both debates because she didn’t slow Obama’s momentum, but heck, why pour salt on an open wound!)

There has been much speculation recently about why Clinton has ended up in this position, and many pundits are pointing to the difficulty of her being able to run because she is a woman.

I just don't buy into that, and neither do the citizens of this country.

A year ago Clinton was up 30 points in the polls; six months ago she was up 25 points in the polls; a month ago she was up 15 points in the polls; two weeks ago she was slightly ahead; and now she is significantly behind.   

Did the public in the last few days just now discover she is a woman???? Hardly.

When Obama won Iowa the pundits were all shocked that an African American could carry a nearly all white electorate, and then when he didn’t meet expectations in New Hampshire, pundits started saying it was because of some latent racism.

Again, a terrible misread on where voters are.

In the Republican primary, there was constant talk that Mitt Romney’s failure to win was somehow linked to his Mormon religion. And then of course we find out he did better than John McCain among evangelicals at nearly every step of the way. Another misjudgment by the media and pundits of the country’s acceptance of diversity.

At many, many, many places along this campaign the public (and voters specifically) have been well ahead of where many analysts of this election are and ahead of how the campaign has been covered. 

The United States as a country has come to terms with itself over the years and is totally willing to support a woman as President, or an African-American, or someone who is a Mormon.

It's time we stopped using these labels as an excuse of why certain candidates don’t succeed.

If Hillary ends up losing, it will be because she never had a vision or a message that resonated with the majority of voters and that many voters were looking for a change candidate, and not a candidate who held out their Washington experience as crucial.

If Obama, for some unknown reason stumbles, it will be because voters no longer believed that how he conducted his campaign matched his rhetoric of hope and healing or that he made some big gaffes highlighting some preparedness argument.

And Romney lost because voters believed he was not authentic in what he said along the campaign trail on a variety of issues.

So, as one of the folks who covers this race, I think it's time we got past the old excuses and rationale based in a time gone by in the voters minds. I think we would all be better off catching up to where the voters already are in how they judge the leader they want. 

We can learn much by following the "wisdom of crowds" especially as it relates to ancient labels. 

February 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (177)

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Sean, I emailed you after the 2004 race and told you the republican’s better start working then to find someone dynamic and good looking for 08, because the media would stop at nothing to get a demo in, it is all over the Supreme Court.
You pushed the Giuliani machine, not Romney till it was too late.
I'm probably more conservative than you, but talk radio left us like Reagan talks about the democrats leaving him. You and Boortz keep harping about the rich paying most of the taxes, even though my ancestory had their blood spilled so that these companies and exucutives could make all this money, i guess we don't owe them and their linage anything for giving their lives. You didn't fall in with Romney till it was too late. Boortz whom i used to like blames anti-abortion zealots, i blame you guys for hanging in with the big money machine till it was to late BIG BUSINESS, low wage scale, illegal imm.. Boortz and you didn't really give a rip about immigration till you felt the growl of the silent majority. We the people want a person that cares that a company and their dupes are not conspiring to ship our jobs across our borders as well as flooding our jobs with cheap labor, Obama seems too, all we get from you and Boortz as well as others is "the top 1% pay 27-37% of the taxes, as far as boortz is concerned anti-life, it's to bad that he didn't have to worry about his mom aborting him, i consider him to be a hysterical @ool, now.

You need to think about your base and whether you’re loosing yours.

Maybe we need a good house cleaning the hillbilly and McCain are the same old machine. Looks like Obama is it, like spit.
It's to bad about the Supreme court, I guess Boortz will get his wish, but i as male think that my body is mine and that i should not have to register with the selective service for war to die for somebody that might want to abort me, like Boortz.

Posted by: aaron lance | Feb 28, 2008 8:59:56 AM

An opinion:: (Post 8:57) You're right. Gender bias is a factor. I have 2 friends who were upset with me for changing my mind and switching to Obama. They both told me that I was a "traitor" because they want to see a woman in the WH before they die." I agree with you, that's ridiculous!

Posted by: prairie town | Feb 28, 2008 9:12:56 AM

I see the old accusations of sexism have come out, but they can just as easily been turned around. These gender warriors, so ready to stand behind Hillary would not give her house room, with EXACTLY the same behavior and attitudes, if she were a man. I want to see a female president, but I don't want anyone to be a president BECAUSE she is a woman. And I particularly don't want this one. It gets particularly ridiculous when the women-firsters argue that if Obama gets the nomination they'll vote McCain. Oh, good idea. Let the Republicans roll back freedom of choice out of a fit of pique.

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Posted by: Sammy Bobammy | Feb 28, 2008 9:20:46 AM

The arguement that the only reason Hillary is failing is because she's woman is asinine. Nearly 60% of the democratic primary voters have been women. If there is a gender bias, it works in favor of hillary, not against her.

I would contend that the only real reason Hillary is actually a viable contender is because she's a woman. She is one of the most divisive and most unabashedly political figures in the country. She seems to consistently place politics ahead of policy, a trait that's terrible but all to common in our leaders. But because of her gender she gets a huge chunck of that 60% block voting for her. To be fair, african americans overwhelmingly support Obama too, but there are several times as many women in the democratic party as there are african americans.

Posted by: Brian | Feb 28, 2008 9:24:06 AM

A single factor accounts for all the unexpected features of this election. Human beings always keep an eye on the NEW guy. Hillary was as familiar as the kitchen. Obama was unfamiliar. So everyone watched him. Just that simple.

Posted by: Marie Zarankevich | Feb 28, 2008 9:24:17 AM

Dowd is right! This isn’t about race or gender. It’s about blatant disgusting misogyny in high definition for the entire world to witness. Women across the world can see that women here in this country, touted to be the model of a democracy and land of the free, are as free as the white men allow and that it is white men control the government and they will decide who will be President.

There is little difference in white men in this country and the Taliban in Iraq and Afghanistan. Women have soundly been put in their place in this country again. The white male media controls the politics and the slant of every story that runs over and over and over again. The media is saturated with their contempt of women evidenced by the tone and their inability to even begin to glean understanding of what their blatant misogyny.

Will Obama win? Probably. Hillary can’t possibly continue to fight on so many fronts effectively. Her every action, taken or not taken is slanted to demean and belittle her as a politician. The crescendo from the white male press adds to the feeding frenzy around Obama and contributes to the mystic. He is a good speaker, but in reality no better than a lot of the Sunday morning pulpit lecturers. As the white boys sit and listen mesmerized by his accomplishments, i.e. being able to speak well, they see no deficits, only high praise for little substance. Meanwhile the public laps up the warm media milk like calves in the darkness.

Women abandon Hillary because the media says it’s over and the threat of four more years of the Republicans will in fact destroy this country, so let’s “heal the party” and moveon. We women are after all looked upon as compliant and healers of the “family”. We are expected to do what is right and best for all. We are expected to submit to the higher good, for all, except us!

The assumption that all of these women supporters of Hillary will bow to Obama is grossly over estimated. Many may finally be able to see that neither party in fact stands for their values in a so called democracy. Many may be too busy to vote in the general election. Many may write in a name in protest in the general election. And, many may fall in line and be “good girls” because they believe they have acted independently reciting the media mantras: “We don’t have to vote for a woman just because she is a woman. We can vote for the “best candidate”; the candidate that is “best for the job”. We can in fact vote for Obama.” There is nothing to stop them and the milk is about the right temperature for human consumption. Slurp!

Posted by: AmazonTraveler | Feb 28, 2008 9:28:43 AM

I got the feeling that the Clintons are now preparing to accept their debacle and setting the media for the blame later. Hill's continued whining on her campaign stump will not earned her any more votes and might even turn-off her potential voters. If she is that smart, and I don't believe she is, then her stump should not be about whining. Her accusation of media bias did not reflect reality and their continued delusion that they are well loved and very popular. Bloomberg's announcement of not seeking the presidency is actually a concession that his candidacy is co-terminus with Hill's run, because he just can't let Hill become the president. Another thing that the Clintons didn't know about is that they are suffering from MADD - Media Adulation Deficit Disorder, resulting in her becoming a Whiner !
With Super delegates now slowly trekking into Barack's camp, it is very likely that she will again suffer another humiliating defeat in Texas and OH next week. Lewis have officially switched and this would have a net effect of 2 on the delegate count.

Posted by: wilson | Feb 28, 2008 9:32:26 AM

AmazonTravelor Post 9:28am:::This woman 'abondoned' (actually chose not to vote for) Hillary because she 'found her voice' and the tone sounded a lot like yours. She should have paid more attention to HOW she was coming across instead of sounding like she was mad all the time. Assertion, good---agression, bad. And BTW, had a male candidate demonstrated that behavior, he would have lost votes, too!

Posted by: prairie town | Feb 28, 2008 9:52:20 AM

Dowd's premise that race, religion, gender is baloney. It is obviously important to the media, if not the people because they haven't shut up about it since these primaries began. Media focus does have great influence on who is viewed by the public. Hillary and McCain were best known by the public causing Hillary to be named by the Democrats early on. Obama only really became an important factor when he won Iowa where Democrats are independent minded. Iowans were greatly attracted to his oratory, giving Edwards a second place and Clinton third because she did not campaign there as vigorously as she should have. Edwards was ignored totally but Clinton got serious and won New Hampshire getting her back into the campaign. Soon, there was Oprah's widely publicized tour and media accusations of race baiting by Bill Clinton followed by Kennedy's endorsement. Horrible negative media coverage had disastrous effects for Hillary! Understandably, the blacks took notice, abandoned Clinton, and went to the polls in droves bringing Obama wins in the red states. By then the press began to rave about his fabulous wins, focusing more attention upon Obama, never mind that these red states will inevitably vote for the Republicans. Clinton had fabulous wins in New York, California, Massachusetts and New Jersey plus other important states. Rather than calling attention to her impressive wins, the media had little to say about it, focusing instead on the number of states Obama had won. After that, they either ignored Hillary or talked incessantly about her losses. There was a cumulative effect in play in Obama's favor.
It has been distressing for Hillary and Edwards fans watching Obama garner all the attention of the media. Now the press talks about his inevitable nomination BUT Texas, Ohio, and other states haven't even voted. Obama has about 100 more delegates...he is not inevitable as Dowd suggests. It is heartbreaking to watch fine candidates suffer because the press dislikes them or ignores them!

Posted by: Two-cats | Feb 28, 2008 9:59:03 AM

Anyone who voted for the war in Iraq should not be rewarded with the presidency of the United States.

The American voter have risen above sexism and racism when it comes to this vote ... and in the long run support the "one" who used good judgment.

Posted by: newz4i | Feb 28, 2008 9:59:20 AM

I totally agree. And I'm a woman. I've watched the coverage of the democratic primary on what nears obsessive behavior. I think that Hillary has been cut more slack. No one talks about her being a woman except to say that she's suffering from gender bias. Personally, I don't think she's woman enough to be president. She's not person enough. But if we were to actaully have a sea of change because a woman was in the white house, it wouldn't come with her. Half the time she's riding her husband's coattails. The first woman to be president should get there on her own. And it will happen. But with Hillary: her message is muddy, her personality is unclear (Read: schitzo), and she's a polarizing figure - having nothing to do with her sex.

Posted by: Jessica Davis-Irons | Feb 28, 2008 10:07:25 AM

An Opinion: You did not state your gender, so why would you equate "shrew" with a misogynistic phrase?

I'm sure white women everywhere are just as opressed as black women. I mean nooses placed in their offices, racial epithets, most of their male relatives in hopeless situations, a history of chattel enslavement, a 400 year struggle for equality...

Wait, oh yeah, none of that is true. White women have been participating in American democracy longer than black women. The women's suffrage movement in the South was framed around the argument that white women voting would ensure white supremacy would last forever.

I'm sorry, I just don't buy the whole "women are oppressed more than black people." Just ask a black woman.

Posted by: G | Feb 28, 2008 10:09:53 AM

An Opinion: You did not state your gender, so why would you equate "shrew" with a misogynistic phrase?

I'm sure white women everywhere are just as opressed as black women. I mean nooses placed in their offices, racial epithets, most of their male relatives in hopeless situations, a history of chattel enslavement, a 400 year struggle for equality...

Wait, oh yeah, none of that is true. White women have been participating in American democracy longer than black women. The women's suffrage movement in the South was framed around the argument that white women voting would ensure white supremacy would last forever.

I'm sorry, I just don't buy the whole "women are oppressed more than black people." Just ask a black woman.

Posted by: G | Feb 28, 2008 10:09:59 AM

It appears that the democrats cannot get over the race and gender issues. Wasn't it a republican president that named a black woman to be secretary of state? I believe there are still bigots out there but for the most part they are on the fringe.

Posted by: boulderhippie | Feb 28, 2008 10:11:43 AM

While these factors are not reasons why some candidates are failing, they are clearly the reason why some are succeeding. Nobody can say that Obama's success is not due to the African-American population of several states gathering to him, and anybody who think s about it must realize that Hillary's high polling numbers last year before the campaigning started were expressions of solidarity by women. Obama and McCain ignore these ethnographic facts at their own peril in the future; both need a woman in the vp slot going forward or else risk losing in November if their opponent has a woman as running mate...

Posted by: rich | Feb 28, 2008 10:11:54 AM

newz4i, I hate to break the news to you, but ALL the presidential contendersw voted for the war in Iraq.

The only reason Obama did not was because he wasn't a member of Congress at the time, however, since he became a member of Congress, he has voted to fund the war each and every time. At a recent debate, he announced, just like Hillary announced, that he would NOT pull the troops out of Iraq.

I guess this means you'll be staying home on election day.

Posted by: marco123 | Feb 28, 2008 10:12:17 AM

Race and gender DID matter in the democratic primary - just not in the way you portray it. Race was used against the Clintons (not Obama) beginning with Bill Clinton's fairy tale comment. It had absolutely nothing to do with race (and everything to do with Iraq), yet the media edited those comments, portrayed them as racist and the Obama campaign exploited that angle to disparage the Clintons. This tactic was used over and over again to drive support away from Hillary Clinton and toward Obama. Then, of course, there were the numerous articles and pundit comments using terms such as "pimping out" or "shrill voice" and "fashion choices" when describing Hillary's campaign, while no mention was ever made of Obama's arrogant chin up and head tilting during every debate, his often his lack of substantive message during most of the primaries, his use of his predecessor's words and his association and support from Big Pharma, Coal and Nuclear Energy companies, and his affiliation with shady characters (Rezko, Sinclair, etc). If these same issues had been linked to Clinton (and some similar items have been portrayed in the media) you pundits would have had a field day disparaging the Clintons. I find it disgusting and shameful. I once thought I would have no problem supporting Obama if he won the democratic primary. Not anymore. I won't vote for either McCain or Obama. Once again, I feel I've been cheated in terms of choices for the Presidency. I will write-in my vote in November.

Posted by: Mary | Feb 28, 2008 10:12:25 AM

I am a white middle-aged woman and I decide who to vote for by reading what their plans are on their website under issues and reading biographical histories of the candidates. To simply vote for Hillary because she is a woman like me is silly. I've had terrific men bosses in my lifetime and some real idiot men in charge; I've also had inspirational women bosses and some real stinkers. Gender doesn't matter a whit, it is the quality of the person's intelligence and their goals that matter. Hillary is divisive, her plans favor corporate profits and she isn't as wise or thorough as evidenced by voting yes on the Iraq Resolution (when the NIE report by our national intelligence agency showed this was a bad idea but she didn't read it.) Obama wins hands down, his plans are more logical, he sees the root cause of a lot of problems is corporate control of Washington and he has a way of uniting, not dividing that we really need in the crisis situation our country is in.

Posted by: Lydia | Feb 28, 2008 10:14:19 AM

Even my own distant relatives seem to take guilty pleasure in sending out Obama- Moslem - anti-semite- unpatriotic
spam and slanders in emails. Some people enjoy being naughty and setting free the murky world of hate, fear and paranoia that floats in their unconscious mind. The same thing occurs in the internet blogs where people hide behind their avatars and web name personas.

I think the best way to handle this is to also use email and the internet to spread factual and substantiated real articles that report facts and events and discredits the subterranian rumor mongerers.

Posted by: maddymappo | Feb 28, 2008 10:14:51 AM

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