Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
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« Ready, Aim, Fire | Main | Opinion: Obama Will Win Nomination »
Watching the Super Tuesday Results
February 05, 2008 10:41 AM
What to look for as you’re watching tonight's returns:
Expect a good night for McCain. And just how good it will be you will be able to tell by watching the returns in Illinois. McCain wins that state, then he wins big that night and be all but the nominee.
For the Democrats, if I had to pick one state to watch it would be Missouri. It’s a mix of urban and rural, black and white, and East and West. Whoever carries it, you have to feel like the wind is a bit behind their backs.
And depsite all of that, you can't underestimate the importance of the California results - which might not even be clear by the end of what promises to be a very long night. The trajectory path of both nominations will be determined by the California results.
John McCain’s solid, though not overwhelming, victory in Florida has given him all the lift he could have dreamed of going into Super Tuesday when about half the delegates will be chosen for the Republican nomination. Add to that key victory the very high profile endorsements he picked up last week and the result is some very powerful momentum.
Some argue that Romney’s money can keep him competitive and make things even with McCain. No way! If you gave Romney truth serum and asked him to pick money or momentum, he would take momentum in a second.
At this point, McCain’s destiny is back in his hands. Absent him messing up, falling down, or some new information surfacing, he is likely to win very big today. Romney can’t do much to change that at this point. Only McCain can torpedo McCain.
For the Democrats, the race is far more unclear. Hillary still maintains a slight advantage with her established organization and her slight lead in the polls, but Obama is rising fast. The key question today: is he rising fast enough to catch her?
The Democratic debate in California last week set the critical tone for these final days of the Super Tuesday push.
First, it was simply a historic moment for our country to see an African-American and a woman standing on that stage – know that one of them is about to secure a major party endorsement in this country for the first time ever.
Second, the Democratic candidates have figured out they need to start playing nice if they want to pull together a coalition headed into the November general election. It is absolutely crucial for Hillary’s supporters to feel good about Obama, and for Obama’s supporters to be enthusiastic about Hillary.
Third, this debate demonstrated clearly the difference in approaches of these two candidates. Hillary shows she is adept at the practice and the process of politics; Obama shows he is versed in the poetry of politics. And Democratic voters are going to have to figure out which style they want as their nominee.
Fourth, both candidates did very well, and showed command of the issues and the stage. Watching this debate, one felt they each had the gravitas and leadership ability to be President, and one could envision either one having the capacity to sit in the Oval Office. That’s a big hurdle in these elections. And that fact alone means you have to give Obama the edge. His weakness coming in among some voters was the question of preparedness to be President. He has cleared that hurdle. But whether that will be enough, will be seen – at least in part – tonight.
February 5, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (16)
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lucid commentary from matt dowd, one of the best political minds in the country... too bad he used it to re-elect George W. Bush in 2004. it will be a stain on his legacy no matter what he does or how good he is from now to eternity...
Posted by: Jeff D. | Feb 5, 2008 2:40:22 PM
HRC campaign now using "talking points" of Obama as VP (as if!) and wanting a debate a week. If Obama comes out of tonight with at least a tie, his money raising superiority will give him a big edge. Go get em, Barack.
Posted by: Easy | Feb 5, 2008 3:37:28 PM
as we have seen in the GOP race, money isnt the deciding factor it used to be...If it was, Rudy would still be in it and Romney wouldn't keep talking about all of his 'silver medals' (eyeroll - it was clever the first time, now not so much)
Posted by: phillygirl64 | Feb 5, 2008 6:10:41 PM
For real Dowd - being able to speech in a debate qualifies you for the Oval Office. You are a deeper thinker than that. Obama has not overcome any hurdles. He has proven himself a galvanizing force - but his policies - ever hear him talk about them. Look beyond window dressing sir
Posted by: watchingr | Feb 5, 2008 10:25:07 PM
For real Dowd - being able to speak in a debate qualifies you for the Oval Office. You are a deeper thinker than that. Obama has not overcome any hurdles. He has proven himself a galvanizing force - but his policies - ever hear him talk about them. Look beyond window dressing sir
Posted by: watchingr | Feb 5, 2008 10:26:23 PM
I've seen you speak and you moved me. Much in the same way Obama has and Bill did before him. What I don't get is why you are sitting this one out...
Posted by: Pete Kenyon | Feb 6, 2008 12:39:08 AM
John McCain has proven convincingly that he can win in primaries where only Republicans can vote.This is good news for the GOP because Senator McCain is their strongest candidate for the general election.John McCain has the ability to earn the votes of Republicans,Independents, and conservative Democrats.Citizens across the country have deep respect for his military service.If the social and fiscal conservatives of this nation rally to support Senator McCain in the general election, he will be the next President of the United States.I'm a socially conservative,pro-life Christian who will proudly vote for Senator McCain in November.If one cares about the culture of life, John McCain is a fine candidate to support.
Posted by: Shawn M. Hussey | Feb 14, 2008 7:42:27 PM
John McCain has proven convincingly that he can win in primaries where only Republicans can vote.This is good news for the GOP because Senator McCain is their strongest candidate for the general election.John McCain has the ability to earn the votes of Republicans,Independents, and conservative Democrats.Citizens across the country have deep respect for his military service.If the social and fiscal conservatives of this nation rally to support Senator McCain in the general election, he will be the next President of the United States.I'm a socially conservative,pro-life Christian who will proudly vote for Senator McCain in November.If one cares about the culture of life, John McCain is a fine candidate to support.
Posted by: Shawn M. Hussey | Feb 14, 2008 7:42:29 PM
No communist amended democracy, McCain, Clinton, Obama, Edwards, Romney, all in it for the "bigger" picture. What the heck does America want our democracy as we know it Amended, the entire constitution replaced with one based off United Kingdom, that is communist driven? As for Mr. Dowd, he has his right to the opinion, but I don't respect that Huckabee can't be mentioned by name. Must be another Super Nafta supporter.
Posted by: noregion5 | Feb 19, 2008 2:10:03 PM
I was watching Bill Maher and I was disturbed by a comment you made. "There is more sexism than RACISM," in America. You are neither a woman or an African American, so how do you now what either experiences during the course of the day?
Posted by: Tye | Mar 18, 2008 6:43:13 PM
I was watching Bill Maher and I was disturbed by a comment you made. "There is more sexism than RACISM," in America. You are neither a woman or an African American, so how do you now what either experiences during the course of the day?
Posted by: Tye | Mar 18, 2008 6:43:16 PM
HILLARY IS THE BEST PERSON TO BECOME THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. SHE IS A WOMAN, SHE KNOWS WHAT SHE IS DOING, SHE IS FOR EACH PERSON IN AMERICA, SHE IS WILLING TO DO WHATEVER IT TAKES TO GO THAT EXTRA MILE TO HELP EACH PERSON IN AMERICA, WHAT MORE DO WE NEED.
OBAMA IS NOT THE BEST PERSON TO BECOME THE PRESIDENT OF THE USA. HE IS A LIER. HE IS BLACK, HE DOES NOT KNOW THE FIRST STEP TO TAKING CHARGE OF THE USA. HE DOES NOT BELIEVE IN THE AMERICAN FLAG. HE DOES NOT WANT TO HURT HIS COUNTRY'S FEELING TO REPRESENT OUR FLAG. HE DOES NOT SPEAK THE PLEDGE OF ALLEGIANCE, BECAUSE IT HAS GOD IN IT. HE DOES NOT EVEN BELIEVE IN THE LORD ABOVE. HE WILL NOT EVEN CROSS HIS HEART WHEN THE PLEDGE OF ALLIEGIANCE IS BEING SPOKE NOR WILL HE SAY IT ALONG WITH THE USA.
WHAT TYPE OF PERSON ARE YOU GUYS VOTING FOR TO REPRESENT THE USA?? WE DONT NEED A PERSON LIKE THIS TO REPRESENT OUR UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. EVERYONE THAT IS VOTING FOR OBAMA DOES NOT KNOW WHAT YOU ARE GETTING EVERYBODY IN OUR COUNTRY INTO.
COLOR DOES HAS AN ISSUE IN THIS MATTER OF VOTING FOR THE RIGHT PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA, THE LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE BRAVE. LISTEN TO THE NEWS, RADIO'S, INTERNET BLOGS, INTERNET VIDEOS, AND WHATEVER ELSE SPEAKS/SHOWS TO US HOW AND WHAT BLACK PEOPLE ARE ALL ABOUT. I DONT HAVE TO POST IT ON HERE EVERYBODY KNOWS FROM HEARING AND SEEING IT ON THE NEWS EACH AND EVERY DAY AND NIGHT, WETHER IT BE THE NEWS THEY ARE EXPERIENCING THE BLACK CULTURE PERSONALLY THERESELVES. WE NEED TO STAND UP FOR OUR COUNTRY AND VOTE FOR THE WHITE. WE MIGHT OF BROUGHT THEM THINGS OVER HERE TO OUR COUNTRY (WHICH WAS THE WORST MISTAKE THAT THE WHITE PEOPLE HAVE DID IN THEIR ENTIRE LIVES AND WE ARE SERIOUSLY REGRETTING IT NOW) BUT THAT DOES NOT MEAN THAT WE HAVE TO VOTE FOR THEM TO BE THE PRESIDENT OF THE USA.
Posted by: GOONIES | May 12, 2008 4:34:51 PM
IF WE DONT SEE IT ON THE TELEVISION, THERE ARE WHITE PEOPLE OF THE USA THAT IS BEING BEAT ON, ADULTS AND CHILDREN BEING RAPED, BURGLARY'S, ROBBERIES, MUGGINGS, PURSE SNATCHINGS, KILLINGS, THEY KILL THEIR OWN KIND, DRUG SMUGGLING, DRUG DEALINGS, THE BLACKS ARE DOING THIS ALL THERESELVES, IF ANYTHING THEY STARTED IT AND THEN THEY GOT THE WHITE PEOPLE THAT HANG WITH THE BLACKS INVOLVED IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED STUFF. IF THE BLACKS DIDNT BRING IT THE WHITES WOULD NEVER OF INCLUDED THEIRSELVES IN IT. THE WHITES WERE SHOWN THIS ILL MANNERED BEHAVIOR BY THE BLACKS. WE DONT NEED TO FOLLOW IN THEIR FOOTSTEPS, WE THE WHITE NEED TO LEAD NOT FOLLOW. WE DONT NEED TO FOLLOW FROM A BLACK PRESIDENT REPRESENTING OUR COUNTRY. ALSO, THE BLACK PERSON IS WHAT BROUGHT AIDS TO OUR COUNTRY, A BLACK MAN WENT ACROSS THE COUNTRY TO AFRICA AND HAD SEX WITH A AIDS INFECTED MONKEY AND BROUGHT IT BACK TO THE USA AND HAD UNPROTECTED SEX WITH A BUNCH OF FEMALE INDIVIDUALS AND THAT IS HOW AIDS WAS BROUGHT ABOUT TO OUR COUNTRY. THEY ARE SICK, DISGUSTING, DISCRIMINATING INDIVIDUALS THAT NEED TO GO AWAY, FAR, FAR, FAR, AWAY.
NEED I SAY MORE.
Posted by: !!!HILLARY YOU GO GIRL!!! | May 12, 2008 4:36:09 PM
WHY SHOULD THE USA VOTE A BLACK PERSON FOR PRESIDENT TO BEGIN WITH. WE NEVER HAD ONE IN THERE YET. SO LETS SEE, WHAT DOES THAT MEAN?? IT MEANS THAT THEY ARE WORTHLESS AND MEANINGLESS. THEY WILL DO NOTHING FOR OUR COUNTRY EXCEPT BRING MORE INTO THE WHITE HOUSE AND THE GOVERNMENT AND EVERYTHING. WE DONT NEED THEM IN THERE. THERE IS ENOUGH THAT THEY ARE RUINING NOW IN THIS WORLD. THE WHITE POPULATION IS GOING DOWN TO SHREADS, IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS THE WHITE POPULATION IS GOING TO BE EXTINT. BECAUSE THE CHILDREN OF THE WORLD BY THEN ARE GOING TO BE MIX BREEDS. PATHETIC ISNT IT. AND GUESS WHAT THE WHITE MAN WONT STAND UP TO THEM, BECAUSE THE BLACK MAN YELLS RACISM. BUT IT IS OKAY FOR THE BLACK TO DO ALL THIS SH*T TO THE WHITE AND NOTHING IS SUPPOSE TO BE SAID. WANNA KNOW WHY, BECAUSE THE BLACK WILL CALL IT RACISM. IF ANYONE IS RACIST IT IS THE BLACKS, NOT THE WHITES. WE JUST KNOW HOW AND WHAT THEY ARE ABOUT. AND THAT IS NOTHING BUT TROUBLE, ASSAULT, DRUGS, AND THEY ARE WORTHLESS HUMAN BEINGS. NOTHING GOOD TO BRING TO THIS WORLD AT ALL. THE AFICANS OVER IN AFRICE DONT CONSIDER THE BLACKS OVER HERE IN THE USA AFRICAN AMERICANS, THE AFRICANS CALL THE BLACKS OVER HERE N*GGERS. THAT IS WHAT THE ARIFICANS CONSIDER THEM. THE AFRICANS DONT EVEN LIKE THE BLACKS OVER HERE IN THE USA AT ALL BECAUSE OF HOW AND WHAT THEY ARE ALL ABOUT. SO WHY VOTE FOR A BLACK PERSON TO RUN FOR PRESIDENT, THAT I WILL NEVER UNDERSTAND.
Posted by: WHITE POWER | May 12, 2008 4:40:35 PM
I wanted to commend you for the moving speech you gave last night on the Michigan Princess Riverboat in celebration of the one-year point in the ongoing Michigan's Defining Moment (MDM) Public Engagement Campaign.
I had a comment for a statement you made last night that I wanted to share. You said that after 9-11 that our government did not take that terrible moment in history and bring us all together by having us join in a common cause--but that was not true. The Iraq war was the “common cause” that they used, which to me was totally wrong. The timing and how it all came down also made many American's believe incorrectly that the Iraq government had been behind the 9-11 attack too. And still to this day I learn that people still believe this to be true.
It is too bad that our “common cause” could not have been something that did not end up killing and taking more innocent lives and wreaking havoc on the credibility of our government.
Posted by: Donna Bardocz | May 23, 2008 8:56:16 AM
OBAMA HAS RUN HIS ENTIRE CAMPAIGN ON LIES!
WILL WRIGHT SPEW "GOD DAMN AMERICA" FROM OUR WHITE HOUSE?
What is the most important "right" granted to U.S. citizens? THE RIGHT TO VOTE!!!
A GROUP OF "POLITICIANS" (including Obama) ARE TAKING IT AWAY FROM MILLIONS OF AMERICAN CITIZENS IN FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN!!!
WE NEED TO COUNT THE "PEOPLE'S VOTES" --- NOT THE "DELEGATES".
IF OUR REPRESENTATIVES DON'T LISTEN TO US --- WE NEED TO VOTE THEM OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.
WE DON'T NEED A RADICAL, ANTI-AMERICAN IN OUR HIGHEST OFFICE. OBAMA HAS TOLD TOO MANY LIES. He has too many anti-Jewish, Anti-white, Anti-American and terrorist friends and associates.
HILLARY 2008.
Posted by: REPLACE CONGRESS! | May 27, 2008 10:03:59 AM
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