Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Electability in November?

March 24, 2008 8:43 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

There has been much discussion in the 2008 presidential campaign especially as it relates to the Democratic nomination process. And there seems to be a concerted effort by the Clinton campaign to point out weakness in the Obama effort related to November electability.

Let's take a look at some insights gleamed from the last 20 years of elections.

One argument being made is that there is a relationship between primary win in states and ability to win those states in the Fall.

For example, the Clinton campaign likes to point out they won Ohio and Obama lost it, and that this bodes badly for his chances of winning that state in the Fall. The Obama campaign points out wins in red states in the primary process trying to prove their strength.

To put it bluntly, there is no relationship between primary success in any given state and November success in those states.

The big reason is that, even with record turnouts in the primaries, only a small segment of the public goes to vote in the nomination process.

It looks like about 30 million people will vote in the Democratic nomination process; in November more than 130 million will vote!!! A much different electorate at stake.

And I can recall in the 2000 presidential campaign, George Bush won Iowa in the primary, then lost it in November. He lost New Hampshire by more than 17 points in the primary, but then carried it in the general election providing his electoral margin of victory.

There are many many similar examples of this in the last 20 years.

Mark Penn, Clinton's strategist this year and a major adviser for former President Clinton in the 1990s, and many other Clinton campaign folks, have stated many times recently that superdelegates (as well as Obama pledged delegates) should take into account electability in November in deciding who should be the nominee, and that Obama is the weakest candidate.

First, nearly every public poll out in last two weeks show Clinton and Obama with equal strength against McCain.

This is the case even after two very bad weeks of press for Obama. My guess is after a few weeks of favorable coverage, Obama will again be at an advantage over Clinton looking towards November.

Second, it is ironic the Clinton folks are raising this argument against Obama about electability.

They might recall that as Bill Clinton was headed towards winning the nomination in 1992, his electability in the fall was seriously in doubt. He was more than 15 points behind President Bush in May and June of that year, and in many polls he was in third place behind Ross Perot and President Bush!!!

And we know the end result of that campaign was Bill Clinton taking the oath of office in January 1993.

When talking about electability we should all keep in mind that each campaign will try to use arguments to show they are stronger, and that today’s polls are only a barometer of today.

Electability, like momentum, can be as fleeting a concept, as the deciding moments every week in this process.

This is still Obama’s race to lose at this point.

March 24, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (336)

User Comments

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Clinton won Ohio because she was backed by a popular Democratic governor (Strickland), and a former senator/American hero (Glenn). Her margin of victory went up because she spread lies about Obama's consistent approach to NAFTA ... and it turns out that it was HER campaign that was giving the "wink-wink" to the Canadian government. An additional percentage point or two would go to vindictive Republicans following Rush Limbaugh and Glenn Beck who voted for Clinton (note: WHY to THEY want Hillary to succeed?) In the general election, Obama will get the support of Strickland and Glenn, the mainstream democrats, and all the newbies that his powerful presence, and substance of policies and ideas, have brought to the campaign. Obama will take Ohio easily, now that Ken Blackwell is not our Secretary of State.

Posted by: malthusian77 | Mar 24, 2008 8:53:56 AM

Your inormation is so lies!!!! I hope you still support Obama when they roundup all the White people and Al Sharpton and Rev Wright are teaching your children.

Posted by: jfb | Mar 24, 2008 8:59:01 AM

I agree. The Clinton campiagn uses tactics that were used against Bill Clinton in his race for the White House.

What we have to look at is, the States Obama has won. Several of the swing states Colorado and Iowa.

While Clinton has the agruement of winning the big states etc NY, CA, NJ, MA...

The point she's missing is, these states are democratic states. Whoever wins the democratic nomination will carry these staes in the fall.

What we should worry about is, who can carry the purple states... states Obama has won.

Posted by: Vanessa | Mar 24, 2008 8:59:15 AM

Finally... Someone points out that primaries don't mean much...although I still say margins, margins, margins...states where a candidate won hug (lets say 25% or greater) and the republican turn out was much weaker...and or John McCain did significantly worse or has high negatives with the general constituency...

These might be a sign...but the Clintons did not "carry" states that the margin in the primary is under 10%.

Ridiculous...but I am sure they will dig and dig and twist to make it seem like they aren't the "bad" guys and make it seem like Sen. obama is.

Like Howard Wolfson pointing out the negative that has come out of Obama...when it unfortunately has just been a reaction to the Clintons attacks.

...trying to say "McCarthy" is worse than "Judas" is a stretch by anybody's imagination.

Posted by: dl | Mar 24, 2008 8:59:57 AM

I am getting tired of hearing a different Clinton rationale for how the nominee should be selected every single day - it was popular vote, then big states, then electability, now calculating the future electoral college votes of states won ? They are inventing these measurements, as they have invented "tests" and "thresholds" for commander in chief, steward of the economy, etc. to benefit Hillary Clinton. Of course all of these measurements, tests and thresholds are just contorted justifications for why Hillary should be able to steal the nomination. But the truth of the matter is that the DNC rules in place clearly lay out how the nominee should be chosen - it is a "delegate race", according to the rules, as Speaker Pelosi recently reminded us. Why does the media allow Clinton to muddy the waters, to create confusion and ambiguity? To present the race as if it were tied ? As if the results according the rules are illegitimate and the Clinton camp has the right to invent new rules in the middle of the game ? The media is doing a disservice to the American people and the fact that Democratic leaders have not come out forcefully enough to call the Clinton camp out on this is troubling.

Posted by: Dem | Mar 24, 2008 9:02:32 AM

Ohioan may well have voted differently had they known the truth about Hillary's position on Nafta and that it was HER campaign, not Obama's campaign that told the Canadian government not to take her anti-Nafta speeches seriously. Clinton, to this day, misrepresents her position on this issue that has so negatively affected peoples' lives. So, how about a re-vote in Ohio to give the people a chance to vote based on what they now know is lies that Clinton tells?

Posted by: Brenna | Mar 24, 2008 9:04:50 AM

Perhaps if Sen. Clinton would spend more time on proving her credentials and policies worthy of the Presidency, she'd not need all the twisted logic about polls and numbers.

Posted by: Sara | Mar 24, 2008 9:07:25 AM

Forget the two puffballs.

Vote Nader for real change!


Posted by: Turku Wren | Mar 24, 2008 9:09:06 AM

Turku Wren, voting for Nader is again putting back a republican in the White House, a 3rd term for Bush-Cheney, it is you choice. God bless America and God bless Obama. OBAMA08.

Posted by: BKMC | Mar 24, 2008 9:15:31 AM

Clinton is a blue chip stock.

Obama is a dot com.

One can win in Nov. One will probably crash and burn.

Posted by: s.b. | Mar 24, 2008 9:18:12 AM


Thanks Mathew Dowd. This is what we call journalism.

Your information will enlight those who are still in dilemma to whom they should support (esp. from the Super delegates).

Folks must ask themselves a question: Whats the meaning of conducting primaries process?

Once you get the answer, then you will know how the end must be.

Posted by: Peace | Mar 24, 2008 9:24:54 AM

I'm a 60 year old white man fron North Carolina and I'm liking Obama more and more every day.

I read The Audacity of Hope and Dreams From My Father. Obama writes even better than he speaks.

Black Man for US President?

Yes, it's about time. I got a kick from
the post above, you know, the one by the idiot:

Your inormation is so lies!!!! I hope you still support Obama when they roundup all the White people and Al Sharpton and Rev Wright are teaching your children.

"All your base belong to us."


Posted by: Bill in NC | Mar 24, 2008 9:26:19 AM

State by state in the important democratic base states and key swing states, Obama is faring very badly vs. McCain because he loses significantly among white voters. It's still an electoral college election and Obama is in very bad shape for November vs. McCain.

Posted by: Alicia | Mar 24, 2008 9:29:09 AM

Again analysis from the elite class that support Obama. The fact is that you can look at the electoral map all you want and it remains unchanged from 2000 and 04. If you are going to win in november a canidate must get 2 of 3, PA, OH, FL. In Ohio primary Hillary got 70% of the white vote. In PA it will be the same or higher, and in the election in FL she got almost 60% of the vote. IN the fal Fl will definitely go republican with the help of a republician gov and the help of the elderly and jewish voters. So that leaves PA, and Oh. This is where white working class people will be the swing vote. These are the people who have not been attracted to Obama and with Rev. Wright they will more than likely go with McCain. So do all the Harvard analysis you want but unless he can get white working class voters John McCain will win in novermber its just that simple.

Posted by: Russell | Mar 24, 2008 9:29:32 AM

Obama is the Wright choice.

Posted by: Blair Pittsburgh Pa | Mar 24, 2008 9:30:00 AM

Obama will not win NJ, Ohio and PA, and FL and MI. Reporters need to wake up and do their homework. Forget the primaries, forget the spin. Read the local newspapers and go interview the locals. Obama is toast in middle America and beyond. And Nancy will lose her Speaker role. The Dems should have had this presidency in the bag but the DNC, along with the MSM, have tried to shove an unqualified candidate down our throats and people are rebelling.

Posted by: tiffany | Mar 24, 2008 9:32:01 AM

A lot can happen between now and the convention. Much of it will depend on the voting in the final primaries and if more negative information is put out about Obama. I have listend to the right wing radio shows so I know there is more to come. Weather underground, black panthers, more crazy preachers and don't forget the Rezko trial going currently. Also, the more Obama is dragged off the teleprompter the more he slips up, like making statements about typical white people. It's going to be a bumpy ride, fasten your seat belts!!

Posted by: Firefighter | Mar 24, 2008 9:37:12 AM

H campagined and won electoral votes, he had ran and gained the popular vote and he has put forth the time and money in all states that the Clinton machine wrote off as unimportant. He has won in all 3 and with the remaining contests she will be unable to beat him. Now the only way for Clinton to win is to find some way to steal this election. What message does this send to other countries that we, as a nation, have spent years trying to get to hold democratic elections when we cannot even honor out own?
The man won the race for the votes and unless the voice of the people is ignored he will be the nominee.

Posted by: Brian | Mar 24, 2008 9:37:28 AM

s.b.

I like the analogy. In a similar vane you might consider Clinton good old, conservative, steady, politics as usual and Obama as fresh, new, forward looking opportunity. I am willing to take the risk of jump starting our government with Obama, to make it a country of the people, for the people, and by the people. Under Clinton I believe it will continue to be a government of the special interests, for the special interests, and by the special interests.

Obama 08!!!

Posted by: BooMan | Mar 24, 2008 9:38:06 AM

Matthew Dowd is an liar

Posted by: Carlo | Mar 24, 2008 9:38:34 AM

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