Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
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Electability in November?
March 24, 2008 8:43 AM
Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor
There has been much discussion in the 2008 presidential campaign especially as it relates to the Democratic nomination process. And there seems to be a concerted effort by the Clinton campaign to point out weakness in the Obama effort related to November electability.
Let's take a look at some insights gleamed from the last 20 years of elections.
One argument being made is that there is a relationship between primary win in states and ability to win those states in the Fall.
For example, the Clinton campaign likes to point out they won Ohio and Obama lost it, and that this bodes badly for his chances of winning that state in the Fall. The Obama campaign points out wins in red states in the primary process trying to prove their strength.
To put it bluntly, there is no relationship between primary success in any given state and November success in those states.
The big reason is that, even with record turnouts in the primaries, only a small segment of the public goes to vote in the nomination process.
It looks like about 30 million people will vote in the Democratic nomination process; in November more than 130 million will vote!!! A much different electorate at stake.
And I can recall in the 2000 presidential campaign, George Bush won Iowa in the primary, then lost it in November. He lost New Hampshire by more than 17 points in the primary, but then carried it in the general election providing his electoral margin of victory.
There are many many similar examples of this in the last 20 years.
Mark Penn, Clinton's strategist this year and a major adviser for former President Clinton in the 1990s, and many other Clinton campaign folks, have stated many times recently that superdelegates (as well as Obama pledged delegates) should take into account electability in November in deciding who should be the nominee, and that Obama is the weakest candidate.
First, nearly every public poll out in last two weeks show Clinton and Obama with equal strength against McCain.
This is the case even after two very bad weeks of press for Obama. My guess is after a few weeks of favorable coverage, Obama will again be at an advantage over Clinton looking towards November.
Second, it is ironic the Clinton folks are raising this argument against Obama about electability.
They might recall that as Bill Clinton was headed towards winning the nomination in 1992, his electability in the fall was seriously in doubt. He was more than 15 points behind President Bush in May and June of that year, and in many polls he was in third place behind Ross Perot and President Bush!!!
And we know the end result of that campaign was Bill Clinton taking the oath of office in January 1993.
When talking about electability we should all keep in mind that each campaign will try to use arguments to show they are stronger, and that today’s polls are only a barometer of today.
Electability, like momentum, can be as fleeting a concept, as the deciding moments every week in this process.
This is still Obama’s race to lose at this point.
March 24, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (336)
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McCain can't beat Obama whioh is why they keep pushing this race. It seems that it is always republicans they have on the media with the talking heads and Clinton supporters while they "discuss" Obama when it is really nothing more than Chris Wallace said the other day "Obama bashing".
The Clinton people would like for us to believe that he is unelectable but the truth of the matter is that he is soooo electable that the republicans and Clinton supporters have to try to tear him down to beat him even if it means pulling the race card. They did to understand what the rest of us already know. Yes, he's a black man but he is also a WHITE man. Best of both worlds, united worlds under him.
Posted by: Deanna | Mar 24, 2008 9:41:39 AM
I'm a white woman in my 40'ies. Hilary is refusing to release her tax info which is full of deals they had with crookes in Dubai. Her polls will drop rapidly when the truth comes out.
I'm tired of one candidate changing the rules every week just so she wins. God help America.
Posted by: Sue | Mar 24, 2008 9:44:14 AM
Notice how the clinton supporters and talking heads can never answer the charges against her? they just come out with more lies and attempt to distort the debate......wonder if their parents were breeding for stupid or if they are just sad mistakes?
Posted by: Brian | Mar 24, 2008 9:44:22 AM
John McCain won the Ohio primary, too, after all...
Posted by: dan | Mar 24, 2008 9:44:47 AM
SPIN GOING ON HERE ABOUT OBAMA...I AGREE WITH THE ABOVE COMMENTOR. OBAMA IS GOING DOWN, WHY DONT YOU ASK MIDDLE AMERICA WHAT THEY THINK INSTEAD OF WHAT THE PUNDITS SAY ABOUT HIM. THERE IS SIMPLY NO WAY THAT OBAMA WILL WIN IN THE GENERAL ELECTION. THE DEMS LOSE AGAIN RUNNING THAT RACIST OBAMA, CLEAR AND THE TRUTH...
Posted by: SUSAN | Mar 24, 2008 9:45:23 AM
If the popular vote or polls in certain states or even general election electoral numbers were a surer way to select a viable nominee, then I'm sure the Democratic party would have used those measurements in their primary process, but they didn't, they created a delegate system. The delegate system serves a purpose, if it didn't it wouldn't exist. Moreover, it is the system currently in place. It makes no difference whatsoever to argue for using a different standard now, the rules are already in place and the game has almost been fully played, sorry Hillary supporters, can't bend the rules to fit your candidate's strengths.
Posted by: Dem | Mar 24, 2008 9:45:59 AM
sorry i meant, Hillary Clinton is an liar
Posted by: carlo | Mar 24, 2008 9:46:06 AM
OBAMA is the real candidate for Democrat. Clinton is untrushtworthy. We are tired with her big lies. If CLINTON win the nomination she will continue to lie to the AMERICAN PEOPLE and McCain will defeat her easily in the General Election. No doubt about that. PEOPLE WAKE UP!!!!!
Posted by: I.A.T Smith | Mar 24, 2008 9:48:17 AM
OBAMA is the real candidate for Democrat. Clinton is untrushtworthy. We are tired with her big lies. If CLINTON win the nomination she will continue to lie to the AMERICAN PEOPLE and McCain will defeat her easily in the General Election. No doubt about that. PEOPLE WAKE UP!!!!!
Posted by: I.A.T Smith | Mar 24, 2008 9:48:19 AM
Bill in NC... as an over 50 white woman from NH I agree with you. I also read Obama's books. They give such insight into what a great thinker he truly is. After over 7 years of George W. Bush it would be wonderful to have a real statesman and scholar leading our country.
Posted by: JoAnne | Mar 24, 2008 9:48:54 AM
I liked the comment from BKMC.
Clinton is a blue chip stock.
Obama is a dot com.
One can win in Nov. One will probably crash and burn.
I agree. Obama choice is risky choice.
Posted by: ANJ | Mar 24, 2008 9:49:13 AM
Two very telling quips from Obama recently: one was that his grandmother reacted "as a typical white person", you know since "we all harbor stereotypes". These comments showed that Obama generalizes about people and groups himself. It says more about Obama than his grandmother. Middle America understood all of this, even if the press is still asking Obama if he needs another pillow.
Posted by: hopesprings52 | Mar 24, 2008 9:52:32 AM
FOX NEWS did a hatchet job on Pastor Wright. For those who want the truth visit www.candidblogger.blogspot.com
Pastor Wright was a US Marine who served as a cardiopulmonary technician and worked on LBJ during his heart surgery at Bethesda, MD. Pastor Wright received a SPECIAL COMMENDATION for his heroic efforts.
John Edwards warned that those in power would do everything they could to preserve the status quo. Slandering Obama and his preacher isn't going to work in the end. Check out that website.
Posted by: Mountain Jack | Mar 24, 2008 9:54:31 AM
I love the difference in arguments put forth between Sen. Clinton and Sen.Obama supporters...
You can feel the negative angry attacking from the Clinton side anytime facts are put on the table.
...and yes the electoral map has changed to all those who say it hasn't since 2000 and 2004...the economy, the war and people realizing they don't want the people who sent us into this war ... people who voted it for it because they are "consumate politicians" and know how to play that game...rather than what is right for who we are as a country.
Which candidate is going to bring our allies and some of our enemies to the table to help us forward in the fall. Which candidate and their tone and campaign goes into this Presidency with more people in more countries cheering for him?
There are so many reasons all the Clinton supporters aren't seeing clearly...and they are so wrapped up in the need for their candidate to be President they don't see that #1 overall ...is who is going to put US back in a situation to put us back in good standing and get us out of this horrible political, financial mess.
Posted by: dl | Mar 24, 2008 9:54:49 AM
Where's the beef? No, actually, where is the cheese? These crying OB's supporters need to grow up to face reality. Putting the WHITE-GUILT monkey on the back of the typical white men is nohting but an old used car salesman's tactic and it is not working this time around. BY November, the OB's camp will soulfully cry " because I am black". Rezko deal is not far from over, the uncharacteristic and un-patriotic speech of Michelle, ma ne-pas-belle will haunt all patriotic Americans, the hatred sermon of Jeremiah Wrong is here to stay, the devided remark of OB regarding the TYPICAL WHITE PERSON will linger among all hard working WHITE voters. Lastly, no one will vote for a disgraful candidate who dispites his own grand-mother just because she is a TYPICAL WHITE PERSON. Reality bites!
Posted by: mtr2311 | Mar 24, 2008 9:55:10 AM
s.b. I love your comment.... Hilliary has the leadership for President of the United States.
Posted by: diane | Mar 24, 2008 9:57:03 AM
I had a chance to look at tape of Wright in his sermons. He sure does use words to provoke but "chickens coming home to roost line" is in the context of the US creating collateral damage as acceptable in a conflict and you know we have. In the "God Dam America" quote he is saying God is unchanging: God is and always will be a God of Love; God is and always will be a God of Justice; God is and always will be a God of Truth. Governments are not like that. Race based laws are not what God wanted but what the American government wanted so this government can be changed but to always say "God Bless America" when the laws are against God's will is incorrect and then you should say: "God Damn America" and you know if you are against gay rights or abortion you have felt the same way at times.
Posted by: Beverly Hillbilleries | Mar 24, 2008 10:02:00 AM
I FIND IT TO BE ABSURD THAT NO ONE HAS MADE A COMMENT ON HOW BORACK NEEDS TO BE VIEWED NOT AS A BLACK MAN RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT BUT AS A GREAT AMERICAN... WHEN DID THE ONE DROP RULE DISAPPEAR... OR DOES IT ONLY GO AWAY WHEN WHITES NEED TO FEEL COMFORTABLE ABOUT SELECTING A PERSON OF COLOR FOR A LEADERSHIP ROLE. TO COMPARE SENATOR BARACK TO TIGER WOODS WAS AN INSULT. UNLIKE TIGER, THE SENATOR HAS NEVER SAID THAT HE IS NOT BLACK... WHERE AS TIGER SAYS THAT HE IS SO MULTI-RACIAL AND MUTI-ETHNIC THAT HE IS ACTUALLY COBLINASIAN (I APOLOGIZE IF THAT IS INCORRECT. I AM SO TIRED OF THIS COUNTRY TRYING TO WATERDOWN A PART OF SOMEONE IN ORDER TO MAKE THEM MORE MARKETABLE. TO GO WITH THIS COLOR BLIND APPROACH IS TO IGNORE ALL THE HURDLES THAT THE SENATOR HAS HAD TO JUMP IN ORDER TO MAKE IT WHERE HE IS. tO SAY THAT THE SENATOR MUST NOW PLACE HIMSELF AS A GREAT AMERICAN AND NOT A GREAT BLACK AMERICAN... AS IF BEING A GREAT BLACK AMERICAN IS LESS THAN, WOULD BE LIKE TELLING HILLARY THAT SHE NEEDS TO PUT HER GENDER ASIDE AND WE MUST NOT LOOK AT HER AS THE FIRST POSSIBLE WOMAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE BUT JUST A GREAT CANDIDATE IS BASICALLY SAYING THAT IN ORDER FOR US TO FEEL COMFORTABLE IN VOTING FOR HER WE MUST LOOK AT HER AS A MAN. IT IS SAD THAT ONE MUST DOWN PLAY A MAJOR PART OF WHO THEY ARE INORDER TO MAKE OTHERS FEEL COMFORTABLE IN VOTING THEM... IT IS SAD... AND ONE MUST ASK IF HE DOES PUT ASIDE HIS RACE IN ORDER TO WIN THE WHITE WORKING CLASS VOTE, WILL HE BE ABLE TO PICK IT BACK UP LATER, WILL HE BE ABLE TO ADDRESS URBAN ISSUES WITHOUT BEING SEEN AS A PERSON WHO IS TOO MILLITANT... WILL HE BECOME A TAR BABY?
Posted by: ANNEICE | Mar 24, 2008 10:05:07 AM
obambi is no Bill Clinton.
Posted by: Josh | Mar 24, 2008 10:05:47 AM
The HillBilly Show's 'kitchen sink' approach is only because they are in Plan B right now. Hill and Bill have finally accepted she's toast in 08 and have devised Plan B - "Hillary in 2012!" The first point in Plan B is make certain that Obama will lose - if they don't accomplish this first point, the rest of Plan B will not work.
Watch out folks (and Obama), it's going to get UGLY. The HillBilly Machine has just started to put the gears into motion - there's going to be SMOKE before long.
Posted by: Mary | Mar 24, 2008 10:07:19 AM
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