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Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Lessons from a Tough Campaign

April 14, 2008 6:57 PM

As we head into the debate this week in Pennsylvania -- only a week from the Democratic primary there -- let’s take a look at lessons learned this week in this rough and tumble campaign.

Hillary Clinton was again hounded by questions of her honesty regarding her exaggerated “storytelling” of  her 1996 Bosnia trip and her husband added to the fire by fumbling in his explanation of her misstatements.

Barack Obama got in a bit of hot water of his own over comments at a so-called closed event (more on that later) about “bitter” working class folks and the political causes they support.

So what does all this mean?   My initial take is that neither story was good for the candidate but the two incidents happening so close together are a wash. They both take a hit. Clinton’s hit would have been more damaging if Obama hadn’t hit himself again so soon.

When these kind of things pop up in a campaign you have to look at them in two categories:  first, bad news or mistakes can be just a momentary news cycle distraction that don’t have anything to do with the overall narrative of the race (and thus they quickly pass without much effect) – or, they can add to voters’ perceptions of the candidate that have already developed or are developing.  The latter category is the worst case scenario for the candidate.

Rightly or wrongly, some voters question Hillary’s trustworthiness.  That perception is fairly embedded in her image, and when the Bosnia incident came up, it gave those people evidence of something they already believe. 

For Obama, while being an elitist isn’t embedded yet in his image, it is a developing story line for him and one that his opponents may try to build on.  And the comments he made about small town voters make a case for that emerging image.  I think this storm will likely pass, but if he makes more missteps or misstatements in this vein,  the elitist narrative could become as damaging to him as the truthtelling narrative is for Hillary. It’s not there yet, but more could do it.

In criticizing Obama’s remarks about small town voters, Hillary Clinton drew a line between Obama and Al Gore and John Kerry, who she said lost the last couple of general elections is because of “elitist” attitudes. Is that fair? I don’t think so.

Elitism had some impact on both of those campaigns but it did not lose those elections.  Kerry lost because at a time the country wanted a strong and decisive leader, he gave them a flip-flopper.  And Gore lost the electoral college vote because he was seen as an ultra-cautious politician in his decision making who was part of an administration that wasn’t viewed as honest and didn’t respect the dignity of the office. 

Keep in mind that both of the Democrats that Hillary called elitist won Pennsylvania in the general election in 2000 and 2004,  and won the working class vote in that state!

Finally, if the Obama campaign (or anyone campaign) learned one lesson this week it is this:  there is no such thing as a “closed” event anymore. 

With camera phones, and tiny recording devices, and YouTube, etc, campaigns should open up every event to the press.  It is likely to be reported on   by  citizen journalists anyway!  And with the expectation that every event is open to the press, the candidate will stay disciplined at all events.  I don’t understand why Obama is doing these small fundraising events these anymore since he has such deep pockets in the money he has already raised, and can certainly raise more money at less cost over the internet.

Finally, stay tuned for the ABC News debate this week and watch t see if the candidates further add to these developing or developed perceptions of their personas. That is the importance of this debate in my view.

And one more time, the lesson of the day is this: there are no secrets any more in this age of technology. 

April 14, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (67)

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Nice piece.

My gut however, tells me that the Obama slip-of-the-tongue will linger. It's magnified by the fact that he presumed that what he said was private -- a hand-picked audience. Accordingly, I think he did use the exact words he wanted to use.

But, his words leaked and his image was tarnished. And, in the aftermath, he switched to the attack mode. That's 180 degree's opposite of the image he wants to project.

Posted by: Aston | Apr 14, 2008 7:34:45 PM

The debate tomorrow night is certainly going to be interesting!!!

Obama 2008 -- Yes, WE CAN!!!

Posted by: Jackt51 -- Vietnam Vet and Proud Liberal | Apr 14, 2008 7:35:59 PM

Matthew Dowd is busily trying to work the stake into Hillary's heart (although I have never figured out what he is so worried about), while positioning Obama for his next poison darts.

He has already sold his soul to right wing causes, and tries to make it look like he's a David Gergen so he can come over to the other campfire like he's a trustworthy friend. Dowd I have news for you. I know David Gergen, David Gergen is a friend of mine. Dowd, you are no David Gergen.

Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Apr 14, 2008 7:49:04 PM

Well Mr Dowd, since you already declared Mr Obama the winner about a month ago how can you even pretend to be covering the race with journalistic integrity?

Sorry your declaration for Obama last month makes all your comments those of an endorse not a journalist.

Posted by: s.b. | Apr 14, 2008 7:49:23 PM

WestCoastMessenger

Any real issues or other important things you could talk about?

Posted by: S | Apr 14, 2008 7:51:31 PM


S,
Would you be referring to BitterGate? I see Obama is going on the offensive per the various news channels. News alert --> he was already offensive.

Dowd is an apologist for Bush, and was probably the architect of the "Mission Accomplished" publicity stunt, but that's not said here. I'm wondering to what degree Jake Tapper is hooked into Karl Rove, anyway. I'm thinking Rove works through this guy, so we got interesting spokes people like Dowd and Mudcat Saunders, all people that would do damage to Hillary in the short run, and Obama in the long run.

Those that say that Hillary is viewed as the weaker candidate are wrong, the R's mastered this demise brilliantly. They weren't counting on BitterGate, but are doing a good job in neutralizing Obama's Russian roulette moves so they can save him for the general.
========================================
Obama, a dream candidate for the Republican Party!
========================================

Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Apr 14, 2008 8:02:22 PM

WestCoastMessenger

Much better!

Now I understand (and agree)

Posted by: S | Apr 14, 2008 8:04:10 PM

Mr. Obama, Relax! everything will be fine for you. I know media will fix your problem ASAP.

Posted by: Allison | Apr 14, 2008 8:07:47 PM

I like how Obama attacks other people
because of the words that came out of
his own mouth...

Posted by: ruc | Apr 14, 2008 8:17:36 PM

West Coast Mess:

You should be more concerned about Buttergate -- or Crown Royale Gate!

Obama 2008 -- Yes, WE CAN!!!

Posted by: Jackt51 -- Vietnam Vet and Proud Liberal | Apr 14, 2008 8:40:54 PM

It's not a wash at all. His comments in the rich enclave of Marin County just get added to lingering issues related to the Wright controversy and the big negative of his wife. It all adds up to a candidate who can't bring in new voters in November.

Now, does the DNC fall on its sword because they don't have the cajones to deal with the understandable outrage of all his supporters - who still may not understand that their guy - despite the dazzling fundraising - is not electable.

As my mom and grandmother used to say, you can't make a silk purse out of a sow's ear.

Posted by: s. valenti | Apr 14, 2008 8:49:11 PM

Hillary's Bosnia is error is Horrible.

Compared to Obama's

Rezko - Lied said he barely knew him
Rezko - Lied said he was a political fund raiser he barely knew
Rezko - Lied He helped me buy my house, bone head mistake, knowing he was under investigation.
Rezko - Lied he donated around 20k over my campaigns.
Rezko - Lied He donated 60k over my campaigns.
Rezko - Lied He donated 250k over my campaigans
Rezko - My Friend of 18 years
Rezko - He offered me a job when I was in college
Rezko - Donated 250k to charity, I don't think there is anymore.
Rezko - I am going to testify for him
Why not give the money back to the courts so they could return it to the people rezko stole it off of, or was it laundered money?

Ayers - Lie I did not know him
Ayers - I knew him at college
Ayers - On a Board for His company
Ayers - Was at a fund rasier at his home
Ayers - Lecuter at the college he was a professor at.

Rev Wright - He is my best friend for 20 years, my spiriatual advisor, I bounce all my political ideas off him, he married me, baptized my children
Wright - I never heard him say those things while I was in church
Wright - I heard him say those things
Wright - He is like an old uncle
Wright - Removed him from the campaigan as African American spiritual committee
Wright - He was just my pastor

Selma speech

I came to be because MLK walked over that bridge, JFK and bobby kennedy gave money so my dad came over. That is why My parents met and got married and why I am here. Impossible the dates do not coincided with when he was born, Obama was born before all those events.

condensed version goggle obama Selma speech it will come up.

Just a very few

Lies on his best friends and family how he came to be.

Obama Trustworthy No Way..............

Christian Not

Can he and does he lie a lot.......YES

Posted by: seah | Apr 14, 2008 8:52:05 PM

I forget,

Following Howard Dean's YYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHHHH! moment,

How long DID it take for his campaign to breath its last breath?

Go Hillary!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: nobama | Apr 14, 2008 8:54:13 PM

Mr. Dowd, the issue isnt that they voted Dem - but that they arent voting for Obama.

Posted by: tony | Apr 14, 2008 9:06:11 PM

Barack Obama said very demeaning things about people that live in small towns all over America to rich campaign donors in a closed media event in San Francisco, since then he has:
1) First said that his comments were true, just that he should have used different words
2) Later on said that if he offended anybody he regretted it
3) Then he said that "Maybe" his comments were not right
4) Has attacked Hillary Clinton and John McCain for pointing out his mistake
5) Has continually tried to change the subject
6) Ever since the comments were made Public on Friday not once has he APOLOGIZED TO ME OR ANY OTHER OF THE MILLIONS OF AMERICANS THAT LIVE IN RURAL AMERICA!! NOT ONCE
7) My wife told me today this reminded her of when I say something stupid and I make her feel bad, that i tell her "Honey, I am sorry that you felt bad for the horrible things that I said, I did not mean them!" Jaja, that made me laugh
8) Sincerely this Obama fellow reminds me of GEORGE W. BUSH, They can never be WRONG

Whenever Obama messes up, his campaign and himself act like it is wrong for anybody to question him!!! We can not even touch this Snob "With the Tip of a Rose Petal!!!"

Posted by: Gabriel | Apr 14, 2008 9:09:34 PM

Gabriel,
Very well put. In the eyes of the Limousine Liberals Obama can do no wrong. In the eyes of the working class we have yet to see it.
========================================
Obama, the candidate of the Limousine Liberals!
========================================

Posted by: WestCoastMessenger | Apr 14, 2008 9:24:23 PM

Check out this hilarious graphic of Obama being a snob-
http://michellemalkin.com/2008/04/11/photoshop-of-the-week-typical-liberal-snob/

Posted by: Lesson 4 the Elite | Apr 14, 2008 9:44:19 PM

To say the obvious, if Sen. Obama is the Democratic nominee, it would be a huge mistake! Now with all those deprecating comments about rural Americans and working-class Americans and what they are like, Sen. Obama invalidated his own claim to be the unifier of the divided, polarized, fragmented America of which he promised to bring together. This unification theme was the foundation of his campaign and predominant of aspect of political philosophy. By his hubris and deprecating comments, he has destroyed all of that! Although, the media has placed Sen. Obama on a very high branch, now under scrutiny he is looking more and more like political Humpty-Dumpty. If he still happens to be the Democratic Party nominee, after all, which I hope not, Republicans are going to have an orgy attaching him. Besides, I am sure the Republicans are going to make Rev. Wright his running-mate in the fall. Having not won even a one major state during the primaries and having manipulated the caucuses with small groups of zealots, but now not in play for the presidential election, Mr. Obama is going to find himself stuck! Without Latino voters, women and working class and rural voters, I don’t think Sen. Obama stand a realistic chance at winning the presidential election in 08. Remember, old Ralph is in the game too. That will be end of story for Democrats. Sen. Hillary Clinton has done the impossible that only Bill Clinton was able to accomplish, to bring in the rural and working class Reagan democrats back to the fold. The best chance of winning the White House for the Democrats is obviously with Sen. Hillary Clinton.

Posted by: charleychaplin | Apr 14, 2008 10:09:50 PM

This is definity the "silly season of politics". People are loosing their jobs, the country is in recession, we are in a war we should not be in and that we cannot win, and people are listening to an old polition having a hissy fit over nothing.


I am bitter, mad as hell and I am not going to take it anymore.

Posted by: John | Apr 15, 2008 8:08:24 AM

I love that snob pic...lol

Posted by: J | Apr 15, 2008 8:16:53 AM

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