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Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Hope vs. Fear

May 27, 2008 8:58 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

So, Barack Obama slowly moves towards locking up the nomination and begins to turn his sights on John McCain.

McCain has a big week with denunciation of conservative pastors, release of medical info, and his wife releasing last years taxes while he interviews first three prospects for vice president, and Hillary Clinton seems odd woman out struggling to understand her lost dream and putting her foot in her mouth related to a Kennedy assassination and claiming sexism is responsible for her troubles.

Hmmm, so where do we stand and what can we understand from all this?

As I have mentioned before, Clinton looks like to me that she is tired, slightly desperate and going through the stages of grief from a lost dream. She has been in denial, moving through anger and sadness, but seems stuck in bargaining, while still needing to get to acceptance.

Maybe someone can set up a 12 step program for politicians who have a hard time coming to terms with leaving the stage. First step as always is admitting you have a problem.

I feel for her as her arguments for staying in get more and more convoluted and rather bizarre. Using her logic, no losing candidate should ever drop out. Huckabee should have stayed in because you never know what could happen. Or Biden or Dodd or Edwards or Richardson should have stayed in the race because who knows what might happen?

My guess: acceptance in the stages of grief will come on or around June 3rd.

To me, in a exceptionally simplified explanation, the Democratic primary race boils down to hope vs. fear. All voters have a combination about wanting their leaders to understand and feel their fears (whether it be about the economy, or health care or the war, etc.) but ultimately the majority of voters want to vote their hopes.

If one was to factor out certain demographics in this race (African-Americans supporting Obama; older white women supporting Clinton), then one is left with the following data: voters under 30, voters with college education or higher, and more upper income Democrats by and large support Obama from state to state. This group has reason to be optimistic whether because of youth or opportunity or circumstance, and appeals to hope resonate very strongly.

Contrary to this, Clinton gets voters over 30 who make less than 50k and don't have college education.  And this is true from state to state. It's not an Appalachian problem as some have suggested. It's just that there are many more of these type of voters in those states than in other places. These voters are much less optimistic, have been through many struggles without much showing for it, and pure language of hope doesn't connect well.

Obama is very good on the hope side of the equation, but many of these Clinton voters don't get a sense he understands their fears. And Clinton has been very good on the fear side of the equation, but hasn't connected on the hope part.

As the likely Democratic nominee, Obama is going to have to show he understands these voters fears and struggles, before they are open to a language of hope. This is absolutely imperative as he moves towards the general election against John McCain.

The best candidates in national politics ultimately show they feel and understand voters' fears but then ask them to vote their hopes. Kennedy did this well, Reagan did this well, Clinton did this well, and even President Bush did this well at times.

Obama, if he is going to win, will have to learn from the primaries that while the conclusion is hope, he needs to walk with voters fears for a bit.

May 27, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (460)

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Great piece. I have noticed all along Obama's supporters are siding with him out of HOPE for the nation. But HRC's supporters reject Obama out of FEAR. And unfortunately, HRC plugged into that fear early on and was far too eager to fan those flames.

It makes me wonder, when Obama is elected, will we have thousands of people hiding in caves on Inaugration Day, waiting for The End of Days?

Posted by: NO MORE DRAMA - VOTE OBAMA | May 27, 2008 9:16:39 AM

Obama is a fairy tale.. he presents himself as prince charming, but he's really a grasping nasty vicious politico.

better choice is McCain... at least he's done something for America

Posted by: trettine | May 27, 2008 9:18:05 AM

No vote for BO. Most of the time he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about. It is almost embarrassing to listen from one day to the next. As far as I am concerned if it isn't Hillary it will not be BO! No vote for BO!

Posted by: rockthebleachers | May 27, 2008 9:24:08 AM

John McSame is saying Barack should meet him Iraq...

How about he get a head start,stay there and fight the war until Barack is President and end the war, brings our McSame and our troops home.. sounds good to me.

Obama 08

Posted by: Lawrence | May 27, 2008 9:25:36 AM

Interesting observations. It's unfortunate that Hillary Clinton's response to her apparent loss has been to blame other people and the media. In a contest, someone wins and someone loses. The main reason is that more people preferred the other candidate. It's true that not every part of this contest has been "fair," but it hasn't been entirely fair for her opponent in every respect, either.

I think Obama understands the struggles of everyday people more than some people give him credit for. His work as a community organizer (and also as a civil rights lawyer) would have placed him closer to the people who were struggling and had little reason to hope than the other candidates' experiences from what I know of them.

Posted by: mary | May 27, 2008 9:28:49 AM

trettine:

What has McCain really done for America?

rockthebleachers:
What does Obama not have a clue about? FYI: everything is not an answer.

Posted by: Mr. Coffee | May 27, 2008 9:29:08 AM

trettine...I hope you're ready for some tough times. It is obvious that McCain isn't going to withdraw from this horendous war soon, he thinks the economy is doing fine , and doesn't feel our troops deserve anything more than what they are getting( he plans to vote against the GI bill). I would rather vote for HOPE than continued desperation, as our country goes down the crap heap.

Posted by: formerhillary | May 27, 2008 9:32:59 AM

mary...great observation. It seems HRC wants to comoplain and whin about everything in this election because she is loosing. What she needs to do is look within. It isn't Obama who lost this campaign for her, but her own incompetant campaign. She had it all going for her, but blew it..HILLARY, ADMIT IT !!!

Posted by: telltruth | May 27, 2008 9:36:13 AM

trettine, fighting for your country is service..so is working in the inner cities trying to help pull people out of poverty and hopelessness. McCain served..so did Obama. Patriotism is not only serving in the armed forces, or putting your hand on your chest during the playing of the national anthem..it is also volunteering your time to help others in the community..So for information Obama did something for America..So vote McCain! Who cares? We'll just give him a rocking chair during the debates. McCain is all about war..I'm sick of it! That's all he talks about..Iraq,Iraq, Iraq! what about domestic policy? What about the economy? Anyone who thinks that there is no connection between the billions of dollars spent each week to keep the troops in Iraq and Afghanistan and the faltering economy..must be drinking some spiked koolaid. Jobs shipped overseas..thousands have lost their jobs, forclosures, gas is expensive and the economy is in tatters due to the failed Republican policies and people are contemplating voting for a man who said himself that he does not understand the economy. Wake up America! Vote Dems 08

Posted by: Earl | May 27, 2008 9:39:03 AM

telltruth, you told the truth! well said.

Posted by: Earl | May 27, 2008 9:41:00 AM

The fear is fear of Obama.
Why would anyone want a fairytale guy with only 143 days in the senate under his belt! A novice and A REV Wright disciple? NEVER!
Voting for him is like voting for the biggest pile of BS a lying politician can spew! Never Obama, never voting for Him. Anyone but Obama. ANYONE!!
He can never be shoved down my throat, do not trust him, do not believe he is even worth listening to.

Posted by: HP Boston | May 27, 2008 9:44:25 AM

Mary, well said! Thank you for your insight. Obama worked with the poor and downtrodden..yet there are those who try to paint him as an elitist..even his life growing up with his grandparents, fatherless. Obama is going to fight hard to make a difference for everyone..he will keep his word to the veterans and the people of America. This country will be better for it..If America can give George Bush 8 years why not Obama..look where George Bush has brought us..I know a lot of Republicans who are ashamed to even acknowledge that they are! Wake up America! vote Dems 08

Posted by: Earl | May 27, 2008 9:47:37 AM

HP Boston:
He can never be shoved down my throat, do not trust him, do not believe he is even worth listening to.
*********
Again with the FEAR vote. What a shame.

Posted by: NO MORE DRAMA - VOTE OBAMA | May 27, 2008 9:51:56 AM

OBAMA HAS RUN HIS ENTIRE CAMPAIGN ON LIES!

What is the most important "right" granted to U.S. citizens? THE RIGHT TO VOTE!!!

A GROUP OF "POLITICIANS" (including Obama) ARE TAKING IT AWAY FROM MILLIONS OF AMERICAN CITIZENS IN FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN!!!

WE NEED TO COUNT THE "PEOPLE'S VOTES" --- NOT THE "DELEGATES".

IF OUR REPRESENTATIVES DON'T LISTEN TO US --- WE NEED TO VOTE THEM OUT AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.

WE DON'T NEED A RADICAL, ANTI-AMERICAN IN OUR HIGHEST OFFICE. OBAMA HAS TOLD TOO MANY LIES. He has too many anti-Jewish, Anti-white, Anti-American and terrorist friends and associates.

HILLARY 2008.

Posted by: REPLACE CONGRESS! | May 27, 2008 9:52:04 AM

Boston, Put down the spiked Koolaid and stop dreaming. McCain will continue the slippery slide of the economy..I suspect you are one those people who would look one in the face and say the economy is good and gas is 75 cents a gallon. Your guy McCain said that he does not understand the economy..he is all about war..you seem to like war..then vote McCain so we can have more of our wonderful young people in Iraq die or come back and join the 25,000 plus who are incapacitated and cannot enjoy life as we know it..do you have a heart? Do you care? Do you know that there were no Iraquis on those planes that slammed into the buildings in my home city..Do you know that all the commissions concluded that there was no link between Iraq and 911 but you are probably one of those who were fooled by Rush/Sean/the lady on the view and other Republican talking heads. Vote Dems 08

Posted by: Earl | May 27, 2008 9:56:07 AM

WE NEED TO COUNT THE "PEOPLE'S VOTES" --- NOT THE "DELEGATES".
**********

But that is not the way the process works. Maybe it should be, but for now, it's not.

A GROUP OF "POLITICIANS" (including Obama) ARE TAKING IT AWAY FROM MILLIONS OF AMERICAN CITIZENS IN FLORIDA AND MICHIGAN!!!
**************
The DNC and NOT Obama imposed sanctions on FL and MI (where I live). Please get your facts straight.

Posted by: NO MORE DRAMA - VOTE OBAMA | May 27, 2008 10:00:07 AM

Mr Dowd

As a huge supporter of Obama.

I hope he reads this article.

Posted by: dl | May 27, 2008 10:01:28 AM

Spin as you like, Dowd, she has won the popular vote and the polls say his support is eroding in the mainstream. The DNC has committed a colossal blunder this time.

At least when Obama goes, Pelosi goes with him as well as the careers of a few political pundits. I'm a lifelong Democrat and I can live with McCain for four years better than I can live with the non-issue no-plan no-experience of Barack Obama.

Posted by: len | May 27, 2008 10:01:56 AM

Replacecongress, Are you wearing your hood? thats outdated now. Most white Americans are decent,honest people who really don't care about skin color anymore..people want jobs, homes, comfort..not war,war,war. Obama is your next president! whether you like it or not..move to canada if you cannot deal with it. Its a God thing!Dems 08

Posted by: Earl | May 27, 2008 10:03:05 AM

How can he equate Huckabee who was no where near McCain in votes to Hillary?

Posted by: J | May 27, 2008 10:07:16 AM

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