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Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Hope vs. Fear

May 27, 2008 8:58 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

So, Barack Obama slowly moves towards locking up the nomination and begins to turn his sights on John McCain.

McCain has a big week with denunciation of conservative pastors, release of medical info, and his wife releasing last years taxes while he interviews first three prospects for vice president, and Hillary Clinton seems odd woman out struggling to understand her lost dream and putting her foot in her mouth related to a Kennedy assassination and claiming sexism is responsible for her troubles.

Hmmm, so where do we stand and what can we understand from all this?

As I have mentioned before, Clinton looks like to me that she is tired, slightly desperate and going through the stages of grief from a lost dream. She has been in denial, moving through anger and sadness, but seems stuck in bargaining, while still needing to get to acceptance.

Maybe someone can set up a 12 step program for politicians who have a hard time coming to terms with leaving the stage. First step as always is admitting you have a problem.

I feel for her as her arguments for staying in get more and more convoluted and rather bizarre. Using her logic, no losing candidate should ever drop out. Huckabee should have stayed in because you never know what could happen. Or Biden or Dodd or Edwards or Richardson should have stayed in the race because who knows what might happen?

My guess: acceptance in the stages of grief will come on or around June 3rd.

To me, in a exceptionally simplified explanation, the Democratic primary race boils down to hope vs. fear. All voters have a combination about wanting their leaders to understand and feel their fears (whether it be about the economy, or health care or the war, etc.) but ultimately the majority of voters want to vote their hopes.

If one was to factor out certain demographics in this race (African-Americans supporting Obama; older white women supporting Clinton), then one is left with the following data: voters under 30, voters with college education or higher, and more upper income Democrats by and large support Obama from state to state. This group has reason to be optimistic whether because of youth or opportunity or circumstance, and appeals to hope resonate very strongly.

Contrary to this, Clinton gets voters over 30 who make less than 50k and don't have college education.  And this is true from state to state. It's not an Appalachian problem as some have suggested. It's just that there are many more of these type of voters in those states than in other places. These voters are much less optimistic, have been through many struggles without much showing for it, and pure language of hope doesn't connect well.

Obama is very good on the hope side of the equation, but many of these Clinton voters don't get a sense he understands their fears. And Clinton has been very good on the fear side of the equation, but hasn't connected on the hope part.

As the likely Democratic nominee, Obama is going to have to show he understands these voters fears and struggles, before they are open to a language of hope. This is absolutely imperative as he moves towards the general election against John McCain.

The best candidates in national politics ultimately show they feel and understand voters' fears but then ask them to vote their hopes. Kennedy did this well, Reagan did this well, Clinton did this well, and even President Bush did this well at times.

Obama, if he is going to win, will have to learn from the primaries that while the conclusion is hope, he needs to walk with voters fears for a bit.

May 27, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (460)

User Comments

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len, you are not a democrat..you are a republican posing as a dem. We are on to you Republicans who pose as democrats trying to mislead people..leave us democrats alone..one would have to be blind,deaf and dumb to vote for McCain if one claim to be a Democrat..McCain's policies is 180 degrees different from Hillary or Obama..most people people who speak in similar tones to yours are looking for their hoods right now..but those days are gone..this is a new America with broadminded, thinking people. Vote Dems 08

Posted by: Earl | May 27, 2008 10:07:37 AM

By ROBIN TONER,
Published: March 20, 1992

Former Senator Paul E. Tsongas of Massachusetts withdrew from the race for the Democratic Presidential nomination today, a decision that many in his party said all but insured the selection of Gov. Bill Clinton of Arkansas.

Mr. Tsongas announced his departure at a news conference in Boston, where he said his campaign did not have enough money to continue. His move leaves only former Gov. Edmund G. Brown Jr. of California to compete with Mr. Clinton in the remaining primaries and caucuses in 21 states.

Without adequate money to win, Mr. Tsongas said, "the alternative was to play the role of spoiler." 'That Is Not Worthy'

"That is not what I'm about," he continued. "That is not worthy. I did not survive my ordeals in order to be the agent of the re-election of George Bush."

--Why is Hillary playing bankrupted spoiler for Obama rather than being loyal to the Democratic Party like Tsongas was.

Posted by: BJ | May 27, 2008 10:11:15 AM

I want to see in November when McCain wins due to the stupidity of the Democrats the look on all these politicians faces who are backing Obama.The democrats love to shoot themselves in the foot.

Posted by: J | May 27, 2008 10:11:43 AM

len,

you are clearly looking at old polls.

Posted by: jmc663 | May 27, 2008 10:12:52 AM

Its hope vs. Fear but who started the fear, Obama did. His pastor spread the gospel of hate and lectured on America's sins aggravated by Obama's assoiciations with men who decriminalized treason and downgraded as crimes against honor, an adultery case. The fear is real and people who have fear are with common sense rather than the so called educated ones who prefer Obama and ignored Obama's dubious resume and assoications as just silly issues when this country is at stake. Hope is false because Obama is a fraud courtesy of his pastor admission about him as just an ordinary politician who will speak the way the public wants to hear.

Posted by: darnobama | May 27, 2008 10:13:32 AM

This is from Hillary's campaign website:
Secondly, IT SEEMS AS THOUGH Howard Dean, Nancy Pelosi, Harry Reid, and TED KENNEDY are laboring under the GROSS MISCONCEPTION that WE ARE AS DISLOYAL AND INSCRUPULOUS AS THEY ARE. Moreover, the DNC Leadership MUST BE CONVINCED THAT WE WILL NOT PASSIVELY ACCEPT Barack Obama as our Democratic Nominee, and that WE ARE STEADFAST Hillary Clinton Supporters. Consequently, the DNC Leadership MUST BE CONVINCED that if HRC IS NOT ON THE DEMOCRATIC TICKET IN NOVEMBER, SOME OF US MAY CHOOSE to leave the DEMOCRATIC Party, OR SIMPLY ‘STAY HOME’ ON ELECTION DAY.
Host
Yvette Winfield
Fundraiser
The host is trying to raise money at this event. The suggested contribution is $25 per user. Contributions can be made after submitting your RSVP.

Posted by: Joyce | May 27, 2008 10:13:44 AM

LET DEMOCRACY RUN ITS COURSE!
THIS ELECTION MUST END AT THE CONVENTION ONLY! AND NOT IN THE MEDIA!
STOP THE MEDIA FRAUD!
LET PEOPLE VOTE!!!

if the DNC allows the superdelegates to push and bully hillary this time around without giving her a fair chance to go throught the ENTIRE democratic process,
WE WILL NOT FORGET!

rest assure, the obama boy will lose this election and the democrats will NEVER recover from selling out their souls!

Posted by: Average Joe | May 27, 2008 10:17:17 AM

Mr. Dowd, you couldn't be further from the truth! On the contrary, Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton has won the most popular votes and has also won all the major states and will win the remaining states. So stop runnung your mouth and engage your brain rather than making a fool of yourself!!

Go Hillary Clinton for '08!!

TC Torrance, CA

Posted by: Tom Carnesi | May 27, 2008 10:17:18 AM

LET DEMOCRACY RUN ITS COURSE!
THIS ELECTION MUST END AT THE CONVENTION ONLY! AND NOT IN THE MEDIA!
STOP THE MEDIA FRAUD!
LET PEOPLE VOTE!!!

if the DNC allows the superdelegates to push and bully hillary this time around without giving her a fair chance to go throught the ENTIRE democratic process,
WE WILL NOT FORGET!

Posted by: Average Joe | May 27, 2008 10:18:44 AM

LET DEMOCRACY RUN ITS COURSE!
THIS ELECTION MUST END AT THE CONVENTION ONLY! AND NOT IN THE MEDIA!
STOP THE MEDIA FRAUD!

GIVE HILLARY A FAIR CHANCE TO GO THROUGH THE ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS!
LET PEOPLE VOTE!!!

Posted by: Average Joe | May 27, 2008 10:20:06 AM

STOP THE MEDIA FRAUD, VOTER SUPPRESSION AND THEIR ATTACKS ON OUR DEMOCRACY!!

LET DEMOCRACY RUN ITS COURSE!
THIS ELECTION MUST END AT THE CONVENTION ONLY! AND NOT IN THE MEDIA!
STOP THE MEDIA FRAUD!

GIVE HILLARY A FAIR CHANCE TO GO THROUGH THE ENTIRE DEMOCRATIC PROCESS!
LET PEOPLE VOTE!!!

Posted by: Average Joe | May 27, 2008 10:21:18 AM

Best analysis I've seen of the election so far... This sould be seen by everybody so they can get a grip over the campaign. And take a deep breath.

Posted by: ugh | May 27, 2008 10:21:54 AM

It is completely about hope vs. fear. John McCain will try to continue terrorizing us about security, Just as Bush II has done the last 8 years.

Posted by: Louis | May 27, 2008 10:22:09 AM

Obama has 1600 pledged delegates, Clinton 1500 and she is still winning elections. This comes down to superdelegates, and if they choose to loose: There will be hell to pay!

The psychological analysis of Clinton is awful, another example of how people are deminishing Clinton unfairly, not facing up to the fact she can still win! It might be a slim chance, but she is running for President!

Posted by: Sylvia Johnsen | May 27, 2008 10:23:56 AM

Matthew Dowd is the same "journalist" who said recently, "Americans wanted to see Hillary as a "Mom" figure, but she gave them a "Dad" instead. Blatent sexism, smart-ass, uncaring journalism. Now, he arrogantly psychoanalyzes her. would he be so crass if she were a man running for President? Nope. Why cant a woman continue to run simply because she is a fighter?!

Posted by: PhillyPaul | May 27, 2008 10:25:14 AM

MATTHEW DOWD IS VERY STUPID! IF YOU EVER WATCH HIM ON ABC, YOU WILL DEFINITELY BE SURPRISED BY HOW STUPID HE IS. HE DOES NOT KNOW THE FACTS.THE PROGRAM HOSTS OR OTHER GUESTS ALWAYS CORRECT HIS WRONG STATEMENTS.

I DO NOT KNOW WHY THEY HAVE ON THE PROGRAMS. HE LOOKS VERY STUPID.

VIVA MCCAIN

Posted by: James | May 27, 2008 10:26:52 AM

I think Mr. Dowd misses the boat on Clinton and fear. She doesn't address voters' concerns about the real problems that face them and our country any more than Obama does. Rather, I think Clinton mongers fear, as in "if Iran nukes Israel, we'll nuke 'em back!!" or her ever-popular "assassinations happen" theme. And that's the major problem I have with her candidacy.

Just so you know where I'm coming from, I'm only a lukewarm Obama supporter--I gave money to and supported another Democratic candidate before eventually having to choose Obama over Clinton in the NY primary.

Posted by: Lisa in NY | May 27, 2008 10:27:04 AM

LOL!!! What else have you noticed? I am not scared of Obama. I am scared of his zombies.


"I have noticed all along Obama's supporters are siding with him out of HOPE for the nation. But HRC's supporters reject Obama out of FEAR. And unfortunately, HRC plugged into that fear early on and was far too eager to fan those flames."

Posted by: Tony | May 27, 2008 10:30:07 AM

THIS MATTHEW DOWD IS A COPY CAT..MAN, I HOPE HIS KIDS ARE NOT BROUGHT UP TO BE AS STUPID AS HE IS. I CAN'T STAND IT!

Posted by: James | May 27, 2008 10:30:37 AM

YOU ARE NOTHING MORE THAN AN IDIOT.
HILLARY HAS NOT LOST LIKE HUCKABEE. SHE HAS WON 17Million votes. And if you count the votes as they were cast, then she has won more votes then YOUR FAVORITE MR. OBAMA.
Also OBAMA has lost all but 3 states, after the Rev. Wright's comments. OBAMA is in lead because of Feb 5 election with a straight 10 victories, when US citizens hardly knew anything about him. And that is the reality, that Obama supporters have to emerse themselves into. Clinton has won 7 out of the 10 elections after Rev. Wright comments. North Carolina went to Obama because of 38% of Black voters. He got 56% of the votes, so only 18% non-black voters vs 42% of all non black voters voted for Hillary. America is 85% white, Super Delegates will have to come to terms with this statistics, and will have to decide, if they want to take chance or not? Also all the Traditional Blue votes, NJ, NY, CA etc voted for Hillary, they want Hillary to represent them. And that is another reality. SDs will have to decide if they want to take the TRADITIONAL BLUE voters for granted and put someone in White House, based on the RED state's verdicts?

Hillary has more then 300 electoral votes and she will bag 50 more in the next 3 states that go to polls on 2nd june.

By all accounts - and the verdict of Blue voters - Hillary is wining. Media who is looking for next 4 years of scandles and profits is supporting Obama. Since they think they will have a lot of ammunition for next 4 years, Remember the same thing happened with Al Gore and President Bush. Media became rich in last 8 years of Bush's rule - and they want to also make some more in the next 4 years, that's why
Obama is Media's favorite - and that's the reality...

Posted by: Idiotic View Point | May 27, 2008 10:31:06 AM

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