Matthew Dowd

It is quite simple. Its time now to think about the say: "Past behaviour predicts the future one".

Dems did the remarkable job on economy when they were in power, and they will do the same in future if the are in power once again.

Saw McCains press conference in front of an oil well. McCain stated that Obama was "against the holiday gas tax as a gimmick". I guess McCain is for gimmicks then. I guess McCain actually admitted that his tax holiday was in fact a gimmick. This man has some real problems north of his neck.

Nobody give the Clinton's any credit, but use this expression coined by his campaign in 1992, that's all right!

Clinton did very well as President. If people started to look at the bottom line instead of the zipper, we must give credit to a family who knows what a fight is.

PUMA 08!

What's wrong with the economy? Seem to be fine to me. I can afford the gas, health care, food. I can pay my $800.00 mortgage on my 3200 sq/ft home.

Unlike allot of these people who are irresponsible with there finances, will blame anything or anyone for it.

McCain changes his Iraq stance to Obama's and nobody is on t.v. calling him a flip flopper, or giving Obama Credit. I thought the media was for Obama.

I'm a Bill Clinton fan. But even if you didn't like Bill, you have to admit, compared to GWB, he was heaven sent. Remends me of Obama.

Dowd, like other journalists thus far is underplaying race as an issue because they want to believe that America is turning a corner on this as a limiting factor in a presidential campaign. But the sad truth is that Obama's biggest challenge is with white,working class men and women in critical states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania where the election will be won or lost. Sadly, this is the demographic to gain most from an Obama presidency but enough of them can't overcome the race factor.

"Barack Obama is up about five points over John McCain."

This fact is incorrect. Please correct it.

In the most recent poll of likely voters, McCain leads Obama. Polls of registered voters are irrelevant. Registered voters don't always vote. Polls of likely voters are all that matter.

I can't wait for Obama to become president, i'm excited. When he and the democrats get full control of government, let the good times roll. I wan't have to work anymore, i can collect benefits & pay of the backs of the rich for all my problems. Bring on the hammer and sickle baby, i'm ready to ride the fast train of socialism & marxism. I wan't to be just like France, 32 hour work week & free Health Care and with no responsibilities so i can sit on my deck, grill steaks and drink beer off my government monthly checks. Yeah Baby !!!!!!!!!!!!

The credit for the great economic conditions (surpluses to boot) in the 90s goes to Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America Republicans. They're the ones that set down to balance the budget and did. Clinton was just smart enough (after initial resistance) to go along with it all.

The problem with the economy now is that George Bush is an idiot. He is the one that took that great economy, implemented tax cuts, approved earmark, pork barrel deficit spending programs, and all that borrowing he did (the national debt went from 5.7 Trillion when he took office and will be over 10 Trillion when he leaves) has ruined the economy.

We need a balance budget amendment, and term limits so we get Congressmen in there who are interested in doing what is right for this country and not doing whatever it takes to get re-elected.

the problem is the media focus a lot more on Obama & parsing his every word and action, McCain is glossed over,given a pass on every gaffe & flip and not scrutinized in every news cycle as Obama is.

"Barack Obama is up about five points over John McCain."

This fact is incorrect. Please correct it. In the most recent poll of likely voters, McCain leads Obama. Polls of registered voters are irrelevant. Registered voters don't always vote. Polls of likely voters are all that matter.
Posted by: noheisnot | Jul 29, 2008 10:01:59 AM

Nice try Skippy! Here the truth without the Republican spin....

Today, the Gallup polling firm was for Barack Obama's lead over John McCain before they were against it.

If that sounds complicated, it's only the beginning. Early Monday, Gallup released the latest of its daily tracking polls, which showed Obama holding an eight point lead over John McCain 48-40. Then, at the close of business, Gallup revealed results of its co-effort with USA Today, in which -- gasp! -- John McCain was shown to have a four-point lead over Obama.

In the latter instance, the metric being evaluated was one near and dear to the hearts of pollsters, the "likely voter." In the earlier poll that showed Obama ahead, Gallup merely surveyed registered voters.

Obama partisans would perhaps point out that the Illinois Democrat's entire campaign is based on drawing new voters -- or "unlikely voters" in the parlance of pollsters -- into in the political process. Many observers have taken the record-breaking turnout from the Democrats' primary season as empirical evidence of an unusual enthusiasm among rank and file voters on that side of the partisan divide.

Which makes investigating the Gallup/USA Today "likely voter" statistics all the more odd. Besides its rare finding of a McCain lead, almost all of the voters deemed "unlikely" to turn out just so happened to be Obama voters.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/28/two-gallup-polls-one-day_n_115473.html

Emory Univeristy political scientist Alan Abramowitz broke it down for the Huffington Post. Noting that out of the 900 voter sample surveyed by Gallup/USA Today, the pollsters deemed 791 of those individuals to be "likely" ones, and it is their responses which make up the 49-45 figure that immediately got coverage on MSNBC's Hardball.

By contrast, the full 900 person sample of registered voters polled by USA Today showed Obama with a 47-44 lead. So what about those 109 unlikely voters? According to Abramowitz, "among your 109 unlikely voters, according to Gallup, Obama leads McCain by a whopping 61 percent to 7 percent. Putting it another way, according to Gallup 16 percent of registered Obama supporters are unlikely to vote compared with only 2 percent of registered McCain supporters."

Meanwhile, Gallup's independent tracking poll is conducted with an entirely different -- and larger -- sample of 3,000 voters.

And Abramowitz notes that this isn't the first time Gallup has courted controversy in calculating "likely" voters. "Eight years ago the Gallup organization got in hot water for using a likely voter screen several weeks before Election Day that produced wild fluctuations in candidate preference. At one point, the Gallup tracking poll went from an 8 point Gore lead to an 11 point Bush lead in three days. Of course, this was nonsense. The wild swings in the tracking poll were almost entirely caused by the likely voter screen. Those results were not to be believed. And neither are these."

Jeff Jones of the Gallup Poll pushes back on Abramowitz's critique of their joint USA Today poll by noting that the voter model "assumes a 60 percent voter turnout of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption, so the weighted sample size of likely [voters] is 604."

Therefore, Jones says Obama's lead among "unlikely voters" is merely 51 percent to 21 percent.

Still, that's a huge margin. And it begs the question: How useful is it to try to estimate, 100 days out from the election, which registered voters are likely to vote -- especially when they favor one candidate so dramatically?

I can't wait for Obama to become president, i'm excited. When he and the democrats get full control of government, let the good times roll. I wan't have to work anymore
****************************************

Why do you need a Democratic President for that. Millions of AMericans don't have to work now, (there are no jobs for them). We have free health care, Like Bush said, we can just go to the emergancy room for health care,(maybe not the same care as the rich, some people have been left to die in the ER). We already got our Government check too, remember when Bush wanted to bribe us with 300 bucks so we would shut our mouths while they continue raping the middle class and robbing our country blind.
So you see, you already have everything you want with Republicon George W. Bush and Cheney.

Why do you need a Democratic President for that. Millions of AMericans don't have to work now,
Sorry that $300.00 check is not enough we need to take out more taxes from your pay to help pay for my lavish lifestyle of drinking beer and grilling steaks. Go Obama

noheisnot: http://www.gallup.com/

Read it and weep.

McCain is one of the Keating Five who received millions trying to prevent the government from looking into Lincoln Savings and Loan mortgage practices. Keating was the chairman caught red handed.

Keating was McCain's top contributor at the time. Keating was also Cindy McCain's business partner in real estate. The majority of these real estate sales were mortgaged by Lincoln and cost American tax payers billions.

This is why John McCain is afraid to talk about the economy.

In the last month, McCain has received millions in campaign contributions from oil executives who have received record bonuses the last 7 years.

I guess no one here was around when Carter was president. The good times definitely did not roll.

Well YaRight,

We know you don't care, And maybe you think that's okay. Keep in mind there are some who are have larger homes, and are paying larger payments,than you, and the day they speak,
you then will become the underdog. So I would suggest that you read your Bible,and
know that the way you are feeling is a sin, and think about the fact that you can't take your 3200 square ft house with you when you leave this earth.

It is too bad we live in a country where there is nobody worth anything to vote for. At this point we have to choose between the lesser of two evils. The press is all pro Obama. No American really knows who he is and what he really wants to accomplish. At least McCain has a record..not a good one. At least we know who he is and because of that we don't want to vote for him.
Obama blatantly bribed the people of Berlin this past week to come see him talk. Yet, no major news has reported it yet. They were all there with him. Why is that? Free concert with popular entertainment..free brats and burgers for 3 hours. Who wouldn't come and see it..only drawback for any of them was they had to listen to his speech to get everything free.