Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
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« Obama Brand: Truth or Consequences | Main | Michigan Memories & Musings »
It's the Economy...Again
July 29, 2008 8:47 AM
Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor
So, the general election campaign has been going on about 45 days, and where do things stand?
Interestingly, almost exactly where it did when the two person race started nearly two months ago.
Barack Obama is up about five points over John McCain, and that number really hasn't changed at all. And this despite a very positive, widely covered trip overseas by Obama, in conjunction with some mistakes made along the way by John McCain and his surrogates, as well as lots of ads aired and released by each campaign.
If all you did was add up the media reports on the race, you would think this race holds an overwhelming lead by Obama. But voters have not yet made that decision.
What does this tell us?
First, both candidates are underperforming where they should be based on two indicators: 1) the incumbent President has a job approval rating in the high 20s, the worst position ever for a president in the midst of a presidential election, and 2) Democrats have at least a ten-point advantage on the generic ballot and partisan voter affiliation.
Obama's biggest advantage today is not his historic candidacy or his ability to give a speech or this efficient campaign organization, but the fact he has a D on his back. My guess is any other Democrat running this year would have at least a five point lead if not larger.
I noted the other day that the Democratic Governor of Kansas said that Obama had long coattails in her state. I think actually the reverse is true; he is benefiting from the coattails of Democrats generally.
In fact, as of right now, Democrats are a bit better off running separately from Obama, and Republicans are better off associating as closely as they can with McCain.
And on McCain's underperformance, we take a look at his favorability among Independents and you would think he would have the lead. He is in one of the best positions among Independents as any candidate running for president in last thirty years. Yet he is behind.
So why is this happening? Probably a few reasons.
Does race play some role in Obama's underperformance –- probably a little bit. Does the anchor of an unpopular President weigh McCain down –- sure a bit.
But I think what is preventing either candidate to do as well as they should, is that the dominant issue in this race is the economy (jobs, cost of health care, gas prices), and neither candidate has found their voice to talk about it, to address voter concerns, and to present a compelling vision for the 21st century.
And not only has each candidate not found their voice, but each candidate seems to look for an opportunity to talk about anything else but this issue. If you add up the first 45 days of this general election, the majority of time has been spent on something other than the economy. Quite unbelievable when pocketbook issues are driving American's votes.
There is now less than 100 days until election day, and the candidates don't have a lot of time to fix this situation. (I note this week Obama and McCain are trying to address the economy.) And the longer this goes on, the more this race will settle into historic factors which has nothing to do with the candidate's and their campaign's performance.
I believe that the first candidate to find their voice on the economy and speak to voters fears and hopes related to that issue will be the candidate most likely to take the oath of office in 2009.
July 29, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (99)
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It is quite simple. Its time now to think about the say: "Past behaviour predicts the future one".
Dems did the remarkable job on economy when they were in power, and they will do the same in future if the are in power once again.
Posted by: Peace | Jul 29, 2008 9:35:02 AM
Saw McCains press conference in front of an oil well. McCain stated that Obama was "against the holiday gas tax as a gimmick". I guess McCain is for gimmicks then. I guess McCain actually admitted that his tax holiday was in fact a gimmick. This man has some real problems north of his neck.
Posted by: Jake | Jul 29, 2008 9:46:23 AM
Nobody give the Clinton's any credit, but use this expression coined by his campaign in 1992, that's all right!
Clinton did very well as President. If people started to look at the bottom line instead of the zipper, we must give credit to a family who knows what a fight is.
PUMA 08!
Posted by: Sylvia Johnsen | Jul 29, 2008 9:46:54 AM
What's wrong with the economy? Seem to be fine to me. I can afford the gas, health care, food. I can pay my $800.00 mortgage on my 3200 sq/ft home.
Unlike allot of these people who are irresponsible with there finances, will blame anything or anyone for it.
Posted by: Ya Right | Jul 29, 2008 9:51:47 AM
McCain changes his Iraq stance to Obama's and nobody is on t.v. calling him a flip flopper, or giving Obama Credit. I thought the media was for Obama.
Posted by: jayandersonjr | Jul 29, 2008 9:52:00 AM
I'm a Bill Clinton fan. But even if you didn't like Bill, you have to admit, compared to GWB, he was heaven sent. Remends me of Obama.
Posted by: jayandersonjr | Jul 29, 2008 9:54:21 AM
Dowd, like other journalists thus far is underplaying race as an issue because they want to believe that America is turning a corner on this as a limiting factor in a presidential campaign. But the sad truth is that Obama's biggest challenge is with white,working class men and women in critical states like Florida, Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania where the election will be won or lost. Sadly, this is the demographic to gain most from an Obama presidency but enough of them can't overcome the race factor.
Posted by: John T | Jul 29, 2008 10:01:36 AM
"Barack Obama is up about five points over John McCain."
This fact is incorrect. Please correct it.
In the most recent poll of likely voters, McCain leads Obama. Polls of registered voters are irrelevant. Registered voters don't always vote. Polls of likely voters are all that matter.
Posted by: noheisnot | Jul 29, 2008 10:01:59 AM
I can't wait for Obama to become president, i'm excited. When he and the democrats get full control of government, let the good times roll. I wan't have to work anymore, i can collect benefits & pay of the backs of the rich for all my problems. Bring on the hammer and sickle baby, i'm ready to ride the fast train of socialism & marxism. I wan't to be just like France, 32 hour work week & free Health Care and with no responsibilities so i can sit on my deck, grill steaks and drink beer off my government monthly checks. Yeah Baby !!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Allen | Jul 29, 2008 10:11:17 AM
The credit for the great economic conditions (surpluses to boot) in the 90s goes to Newt Gingrich and the Contract with America Republicans. They're the ones that set down to balance the budget and did. Clinton was just smart enough (after initial resistance) to go along with it all.
The problem with the economy now is that George Bush is an idiot. He is the one that took that great economy, implemented tax cuts, approved earmark, pork barrel deficit spending programs, and all that borrowing he did (the national debt went from 5.7 Trillion when he took office and will be over 10 Trillion when he leaves) has ruined the economy.
We need a balance budget amendment, and term limits so we get Congressmen in there who are interested in doing what is right for this country and not doing whatever it takes to get re-elected.
Posted by: Matthew Brandstetter | Jul 29, 2008 10:19:08 AM
the problem is the media focus a lot more on Obama & parsing his every word and action, McCain is glossed over,given a pass on every gaffe & flip and not scrutinized in every news cycle as Obama is.
Posted by: watching | Jul 29, 2008 10:20:36 AM
"Barack Obama is up about five points over John McCain."
This fact is incorrect. Please correct it. In the most recent poll of likely voters, McCain leads Obama. Polls of registered voters are irrelevant. Registered voters don't always vote. Polls of likely voters are all that matter.
Posted by: noheisnot | Jul 29, 2008 10:01:59 AM
Nice try Skippy! Here the truth without the Republican spin....
Today, the Gallup polling firm was for Barack Obama's lead over John McCain before they were against it.
If that sounds complicated, it's only the beginning. Early Monday, Gallup released the latest of its daily tracking polls, which showed Obama holding an eight point lead over John McCain 48-40. Then, at the close of business, Gallup revealed results of its co-effort with USA Today, in which -- gasp! -- John McCain was shown to have a four-point lead over Obama.
In the latter instance, the metric being evaluated was one near and dear to the hearts of pollsters, the "likely voter." In the earlier poll that showed Obama ahead, Gallup merely surveyed registered voters.
Obama partisans would perhaps point out that the Illinois Democrat's entire campaign is based on drawing new voters -- or "unlikely voters" in the parlance of pollsters -- into in the political process. Many observers have taken the record-breaking turnout from the Democrats' primary season as empirical evidence of an unusual enthusiasm among rank and file voters on that side of the partisan divide.
Which makes investigating the Gallup/USA Today "likely voter" statistics all the more odd. Besides its rare finding of a McCain lead, almost all of the voters deemed "unlikely" to turn out just so happened to be Obama voters.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/07/28/two-gallup-polls-one-day_n_115473.html
Posted by: BarackStar | Jul 29, 2008 10:23:16 AM
Emory Univeristy political scientist Alan Abramowitz broke it down for the Huffington Post. Noting that out of the 900 voter sample surveyed by Gallup/USA Today, the pollsters deemed 791 of those individuals to be "likely" ones, and it is their responses which make up the 49-45 figure that immediately got coverage on MSNBC's Hardball.
By contrast, the full 900 person sample of registered voters polled by USA Today showed Obama with a 47-44 lead. So what about those 109 unlikely voters? According to Abramowitz, "among your 109 unlikely voters, according to Gallup, Obama leads McCain by a whopping 61 percent to 7 percent. Putting it another way, according to Gallup 16 percent of registered Obama supporters are unlikely to vote compared with only 2 percent of registered McCain supporters."
Meanwhile, Gallup's independent tracking poll is conducted with an entirely different -- and larger -- sample of 3,000 voters.
And Abramowitz notes that this isn't the first time Gallup has courted controversy in calculating "likely" voters. "Eight years ago the Gallup organization got in hot water for using a likely voter screen several weeks before Election Day that produced wild fluctuations in candidate preference. At one point, the Gallup tracking poll went from an 8 point Gore lead to an 11 point Bush lead in three days. Of course, this was nonsense. The wild swings in the tracking poll were almost entirely caused by the likely voter screen. Those results were not to be believed. And neither are these."
Jeff Jones of the Gallup Poll pushes back on Abramowitz's critique of their joint USA Today poll by noting that the voter model "assumes a 60 percent voter turnout of national adults. The likely voter sample is weighted to match this assumption, so the weighted sample size of likely [voters] is 604."
Therefore, Jones says Obama's lead among "unlikely voters" is merely 51 percent to 21 percent.
Still, that's a huge margin. And it begs the question: How useful is it to try to estimate, 100 days out from the election, which registered voters are likely to vote -- especially when they favor one candidate so dramatically?
Posted by: BarackStar | Jul 29, 2008 10:24:28 AM
I can't wait for Obama to become president, i'm excited. When he and the democrats get full control of government, let the good times roll. I wan't have to work anymore
****************************************
Why do you need a Democratic President for that. Millions of AMericans don't have to work now, (there are no jobs for them). We have free health care, Like Bush said, we can just go to the emergancy room for health care,(maybe not the same care as the rich, some people have been left to die in the ER). We already got our Government check too, remember when Bush wanted to bribe us with 300 bucks so we would shut our mouths while they continue raping the middle class and robbing our country blind.
So you see, you already have everything you want with Republicon George W. Bush and Cheney.
Posted by: Truth Matters | Jul 29, 2008 10:24:32 AM
Why do you need a Democratic President for that. Millions of AMericans don't have to work now,
Sorry that $300.00 check is not enough we need to take out more taxes from your pay to help pay for my lavish lifestyle of drinking beer and grilling steaks. Go Obama
Posted by: Allen | Jul 29, 2008 10:34:51 AM
Posted by: Deep Release | Jul 29, 2008 10:43:26 AM
McCain is one of the Keating Five who received millions trying to prevent the government from looking into Lincoln Savings and Loan mortgage practices. Keating was the chairman caught red handed.
Keating was McCain's top contributor at the time. Keating was also Cindy McCain's business partner in real estate. The majority of these real estate sales were mortgaged by Lincoln and cost American tax payers billions.
This is why John McCain is afraid to talk about the economy.
In the last month, McCain has received millions in campaign contributions from oil executives who have received record bonuses the last 7 years.
Posted by: Dan | Jul 29, 2008 10:51:55 AM
I guess no one here was around when Carter was president. The good times definitely did not roll.
Posted by: tigger | Jul 29, 2008 10:52:18 AM
Well YaRight,
We know you don't care, And maybe you think that's okay. Keep in mind there are some who are have larger homes, and are paying larger payments,than you, and the day they speak,
you then will become the underdog. So I would suggest that you read your Bible,and
know that the way you are feeling is a sin, and think about the fact that you can't take your 3200 square ft house with you when you leave this earth.
Posted by: fempharoh08 | Jul 29, 2008 10:55:34 AM
It is too bad we live in a country where there is nobody worth anything to vote for. At this point we have to choose between the lesser of two evils. The press is all pro Obama. No American really knows who he is and what he really wants to accomplish. At least McCain has a record..not a good one. At least we know who he is and because of that we don't want to vote for him.
Obama blatantly bribed the people of Berlin this past week to come see him talk. Yet, no major news has reported it yet. They were all there with him. Why is that? Free concert with popular entertainment..free brats and burgers for 3 hours. Who wouldn't come and see it..only drawback for any of them was they had to listen to his speech to get everything free.
Posted by: Gloria | Jul 29, 2008 10:55:44 AM
Kind of like a sales pitch at a timeshare eh Gloria?
Posted by: tigger | Jul 29, 2008 11:00:40 AM
Allen: Millions of American's are lazy like you and want to live off SSI checks, Link Cards and Medicaid. Everything for nothing. But let me remind you that you don't live like the people that have good jobs, making good money and a nice apartment, home or condo. And what makes you think Obama will win. Nothing is for sure in this world even the presidency. Don't take things for granted it doesn't work. What the government needs to do is stop the Link Cards. There are people selling them for cash to buy drugs.
Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Jul 29, 2008 11:03:18 AM
The economy is good for those that are making big salaries and can afford their rent or mortgage, food and vacations, luxaries and vacations. But low income people have to stay on a budget and do without because their salaries are not that great. However, there are not enough jobs availabe and many companies are starting to lay people off. There are thousands of homeless people walking the streets today but some of these people wouldn't work if you offered them a job. They just want to live off the government.
Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Jul 29, 2008 11:09:08 AM
I'm guessing the simple reason that the poles aren't changing and most likely won't is because most people have made up their minds and all the campaigning, pandering, bashing and web blogs in the world won't make much of a difference from here until November. Obama will win the Presidency by somewhere between 5 and 8 points.
Posted by: dan | Jul 29, 2008 11:11:16 AM
I am just sick of all of it. This election has worn me out. I am sick of both parties. I am just ready to see an actual debate and see how well each person reacts to the questions, but we will have to wait some more and hear more things about each canidate that has nothing to do with their policies. I am just ready for this to be done and over with. If people dont vote its b/c they are sick of things like me and feel it doenst really matter anymore. I will go vote in November for the one I feel will be the better choice, but right now neither of them is looking too good.
Posted by: Life | Jul 29, 2008 11:12:56 AM
For everyone that believes the polls are gospel I have just one name for you.....John Kerry
Posted by: tigger | Jul 29, 2008 11:14:29 AM
Its people like Allen that wants everything for nothing, to sit back, relax and grill steaks on his deck (probably a back porch)doesn't want to work but live from an SSI check, buy food with a Link Card and use Medicaid for his illness. People like him like to live like the rich with a beer pocket, never have anything, go nowhere and just stay in that dingy apartment day to day.
Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Jul 29, 2008 11:15:59 AM
Obama: Please! Explain how you would fund your socialist medical plan! What would the coverage be? Are illegals really to be covered? Please -- enlighten us.!
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jul 29, 2008 11:16:56 AM
Today's mortgage crisis sounds a lot like the Savings & Loan scandal of the 90's.
If you look at John McCain's involvement in the Keating Five scandal back then, you will never vote for him.
Making matters worse is that Cindy McCain made millions by being a real estate business partner with Keating for mortgages done by Keatings failed Lincoln Savings & Loan.
Posted by: Dan | Jul 29, 2008 11:21:03 AM
I am so tired of hearing from pundits the the candidates have not found their "voice" on the economy. The "voice" is out and it is clear and loud. The candidates are polar opposits from taxes to energy. If the pundits did their job (i.e. work) and published articles compairing and contrasting the candidates position on a point by point basis the public would be better off.
Posted by: Bob | Jul 29, 2008 11:21:22 AM
The big elephant in the room everybody is ignoring is the latent racism towards Obama. If Obama was white the race would be over. He is just that good. Obama will win, but not by much. Change is never easy. Ask McStatusQuo. Obama will do more for all disenfranchised Americans than the Republican Party would ever do. Ask McStatusQuo.
Posted by: Tom | Jul 29, 2008 11:28:25 AM
Dan
The mortgage crisis looks much more like legislators looking the other way because of the sweetheart mortgage deals they were given. And that included Obama!
Nice try though - but quite superficial!
Posted by: S | Jul 29, 2008 11:30:54 AM
Where is Obama hiding his baby mama?
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jul 29, 2008 11:34:01 AM
If Obama was white, he wouldn't be running at all----there is nothing good about this guy and was only chosen because of his color. He is qualified. There are actually intelligent people black, white, indian, hispanic whatever that are much better qualified than the crook Obama. Atleast Hiliary our would be first woman president was atleast intelligent and had a clue....Obama is so dumb that he had to copy of Hiliary in debates.
Posted by: chattyway | Jul 29, 2008 11:34:06 AM
Correction: He (Obama) isn't qualified to even be elected dog catcher.
Posted by: chattyway | Jul 29, 2008 11:35:03 AM
Let me give you an actual insight about polling. I happen to work for one of the more prominent polling organizations. I worked this past Sunday for 6 hours. Here is the actual data from random dialing. The average dial's per hour was 87. Out of 87 dials the incidence rate (the number of people who actually complete the interview per hour) was 1.75 people per hour. I completed 13 interviews Sunday, or a little above the actual incidence rate. Out of the 13 completed interviews, 9 were over the age of 72. Of the 9 over 72, 3 were voting Republican, 4 Democratic,(one of those wanted to know who was running), 1 said he was Democrat but selected neither candidate and 1 stated he would never vote for a ni--er and didn't like McCain. Those two voters were recorded as other. Of the other 4, 1 stated he was voting for Socialist Workers Party candidate Roger Calero, and one was leaning Libertarian, Bob Barr. The other 2 were split, one a 36 year old female was voting for Obama and the other a 48 year old male, McCain. My average connection rate was 34, meaning that of 87 households dialed per hour, 34 actually picked up the phone and spoke to me. Out of that 34 who answered more than 31 either hung up or didn't have time to interview for one or another reason. Now, how accurate do you think polls are?
Posted by: paul mall | Jul 29, 2008 11:51:50 AM
Hey people what i said is a joke, i'm sick of both parties promising the moon for everybody, printing money out of thin air or borrowing from China. Both parties are a joke. I'm self employed, i choose to work 70 to 80 hours a week if i have to, I DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE!!!! But i'm tired of working my butt off sending my money to the federal government and watch it wasted away.
When are you people going to realize
that big government (both sides are guilty) can't fix your problems. If you wan't effective government, it starts at the local level, then the state and 3rd the federal level. You can control the money flow with smaller governemt, than a big government. Can you imagine a national health care system run by the federal governemnt, look at there track record!! If you wan't government health care than start at the local level with a primary doctor, than let the state handle bigger cases. Let the federal government make the guidelines for the states to follow. This means your local taxes are the highest at the local level followed by the state and 3rd the clowns in the federal governaent. For the first time in my adult life i'm not proud of my federal government, but the people and the ideas of this country are still the best in the world, and like i said both parties are guilty! They have sold us out!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Allen | Jul 29, 2008 11:53:14 AM
McCain reached backwards for his economic advisor and picked the slime ball from Georgia Phil Gramm, and please don't blog back about him being a Texan. He was born and raised in Georgia educated in Georgia, then carepetbagged to Texas. Why anyone here voted for the four eye toad still leavews me scratching my head. The scum bag hasen't returned to live here and that I like. McCain's chosie in Gramm says volumes about his inability to choose quality people, but rather party hacks who are in it for their own personal gain.
Posted by: Saddlesablazing | Jul 29, 2008 12:14:21 PM
It's the energy ... stupid .
For average people, the rapid price rise of gasoline, heating fuel , food, drugs, medical care and other living costs mean the rate of inflation is very high, probably higher than the time when jamie Carter was president. Where to get the energy, the politicians want to bet heavily on solar , wind and bio-fuels, the chances are : after huge investment, we can replace only at most a few percent of current energy supply from fossil fuels and coals.
Posted by: austin | Jul 29, 2008 12:17:33 PM
Soetoro we do know where McPopeye's baby mama is he married her after having an affair with her whilke still married to wife number 1 who waited on his sorry axx the whole time he was a POW, then he had affair after affair on her. Even Ronald & Nancy Reagan couldn't stand the trud for doing his wife that way. Nancy Reagan then gave his ex a job in her office and made sure she was taken care of.
Posted by: Saddlesablazing | Jul 29, 2008 12:18:54 PM
Yes, vision on the economy is important. But given this vision needs to include a lot of the "unknown" with a more radical shift in energy policy and manufacturing changes, no matter who expresses the vision best, there will be uncertainty because there needs to be a mindset shift.
And other factors are more important then you are outlining...
Race is a bigger factor then you are indicating. And the combination of race with his age make his relative youth more of a factor. If the candidate was Colin Powell, the numbers might well be different.
Hillary fanatics wanting to punish Obama as a representative male is a factor. Hillary fans at least wanting to see him make a VP choice first is a factor. And VP choices this year for both candidates may actually sway some minds. Especially given Obama repeatedly saying he wants a VP who will be very involved.
I've heard you say that McCain needs to differentiate himself more but the fact is, his personality and history differentiates his candidacy enough from President Bush that solid levels of folks that are tried and true Republicans ready to vote for him on day one certainly is a factor.
I believe the VP choice and how the conventions go will be major factors. Many more people then usual will be watching convention speeches. And yes, vision on the economy is key. But there's so much more nuance to things this year is all.
Posted by: tm | Jul 29, 2008 12:20:28 PM
How will Mccain face his Higher mighty Obama after the Election upon all his critics toward him?
Mccain is dancing to that same rhythm Hilary Clinton danced. November will tell.
Let's watch.lol
Posted by: Fassie | Jul 29, 2008 12:32:43 PM
Michelle Obama predicted Hilary for the Vp and it was a news.
Obama does not need self-interest persons for his VP and Hilary is.
Sorry, Hilary is taken good care of her hair. supper woman.
Posted by: Fassie | Jul 29, 2008 12:37:39 PM
When are people going to realize what Obama actually stands for? It is very, very simple: think Russia or South Korea.
http://www.ibdeditorials.com/IBDArticles.aspx?id=302137342405551
Posted by: RationalAmerican | Jul 29, 2008 12:41:27 PM
Do not blame Mccain for his flips, his is suffering from indecision. Mcain needs to get back to school and study economics.hahahahahahah America is in TOTAL problem.
Posted by: Fassie | Jul 29, 2008 12:42:42 PM
Maariv, the Israeli newspaper that was criticized for publishing the note Obama left in the Western Wall (the "Wailing Wall"), now claims the note was leaked to it by the Obama campaign.
Israel Insider reports:
a Maariv spokesperson says that publication of the note was pre-approved for international publication by the Obama campaign, leading to the conclusion that the "private" prayer was intentionally leaked for public consumption.
Obama - still fooling some of the people all of the time!
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jul 29, 2008 12:48:27 PM
RationalAmerican - people like you that continually search out neo-con web sites and attempt to get people to follow links to these sites are not fooling anyone. Getting any truth from such a site is like listening to Limbaugh or Hannity on the radio. There will never be any balance and you will see nothing but far right wing spin dosed with a little hatred of liberals placed on every issue.
Posted by: dan | Jul 29, 2008 12:54:46 PM
Just for anyone who really gives a da_n about the tax situation, spend a little time here: www.taxpolicycenter.org. One will find answers to any question about the tax proposals of both candidates, and more. The bottom line however, after reviewing both candidates proposals, is that those of McCain's will leave the U.S. hopelessly in debt. Those of Senator Obama's will be less likely to reach the debt levels of McCain. These findings are also substantiated by studies from the GAO and the CATO Institute if anyone cares to pour through the data.
Posted by: devilkev | Jul 29, 2008 12:55:29 PM
Nonsense Devi............Obama is trying to raise taxes on everyone......cut the taxes and cut spending...you know like giving the corrupt UN another 787$$$$$$ BILLLION more that Obama wants to. Talk about debt.
Posted by: chattyway | Jul 29, 2008 1:20:18 PM
Obama must grow the government spending because Obama makes his money by taking bribes under the table like he did with Rezko and other builders in Illinois---he is a typical corrupt Chi-town politician. Hence Obama is advocating and trying to have the government spend over billion upon billions more on stupid things like giving $787 billion more to the UN.
Posted by: chattyway | Jul 29, 2008 1:22:43 PM
Obama: Gangster lawyer!
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jul 29, 2008 1:43:39 PM
Proposed changes in taxes after 2008 General election:
CAPITAL GAINS TAX
MCCAIN
0% on home sales up to $500,000 per home (couples) McCain does not propose any change in existing home sales income tax.
OBAMA
28% on profit from ALL home sales
If you sell your home and make a profit, you will pay 28% of your gain on taxes. If you are heading toward retirement and would like to down-size your home or move into a retirement
community, 28% of the money you make from your home will go to taxes. This proposal will adversely affect the elderly who are counting on the income from their homes as part of their retirement income.
DIVIDEND TAX
MCCAIN 15% (no change)
OBAMA 39.6%
If you have any money invested in stock market, IRA, mutual funds, college funds, life insurance, retirement accounts, or anything that pays or reinvests dividends, you will now be paying nearly 40% of the money earned on taxes if Obama become president. The experts predict that 'higher tax rates on dividends and capital gains would crash the stock market yet do absolutely nothing to cut the deficit.
INCOME TAX
MCCAIN (no changes)
Single making 30K - tax $4,500
Single making 50K - tax $12,500
Single making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 60K- tax $9,000
Married making 75K - tax $18,750
Married making 125K - tax $31,250
OBAMA
(reversion to pre-Bush tax cuts)
Single making 30K - tax $8,400
Single making 50K - tax $14,000
Single making 75K - tax $23,250
Married making 60K - tax $16,800
Married making 75K - tax $21,000
Married making 125K - tax $38,750
Under Obama your taxes will more than double! How does this affect you? No explanation
needed. This is pretty straight forward.
INHERITANCE TAX
MCCAIN 0% (No change, Bush repealed this tax)
OBAMA Restore the inheritance tax
How does this affect you? Many families have lost businesses, farms & ranches, & homes
that have been in their families for generations because they couldn’t afford the inheritance tax.
Those willing their assets to loved ones will not only lose them to these taxes.
NEW TAXES BEING PROPOSED BY OBAMA
* New government taxes proposed on homes that are more than 2400 square feet
* New gasoline taxes (as if gas weren't high enough already)
* New taxes on natural resources consumption (heating, gas, water, electricity)
* New taxes on retirement accounts and last but not least....
Posted by: Taxedaboutitall | Jul 29, 2008 1:55:40 PM
Taxedaboutitall
You're not trying to confuse Obama followers with facts, are you? Better to spend your time teaching a cow to fly than get through to the nuts who live on hype and prefer no substance.
Posted by: Aston | Jul 29, 2008 1:58:14 PM
Obama tags the Hillary and McCain gas tax rebate a gimmick but his proposed budget busting second economic incentive rebates are not? Maybe in his view size does matter in this instance. Or, maybe, its just that he did not come up with the idea first, which may also explain why he failed to vote for the first eco stim pkg. The only substantive rap on the gas tax rebates was that the oil companies would steal it but all that argues for is a totaly impotent Fed Govt., which I thought Obama was going to fix. Sorry, I keep forgetting that like every other politician, Obama would rather campaign for election than do anythig for the country right now.
Posted by: Luke | Jul 29, 2008 2:05:09 PM
Not widely acknowledged was that the economy has had one of the longest expansions in history under President Bush. This was despite 911, a major natural disaster and 2 wars. Interestingly, things didn't start to spiral downward until the Democrats took control of Congress. As bad as the Republicans in many ways were, the Democrats and their wasteful bailouts of speculators, intrusive regulation, economic redistribution, and coming tax increases are far, far worse.
Posted by: Sid | Jul 29, 2008 3:36:56 PM
Taxedaboutitall - Describing proposed tax increases alone does not give us the whole picture. This week the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office calculated the Federal deficit would shrink in 2008, and could actually swing into a surplus in 2012 — but ONLY if President Bush’s tax cuts expire in 2010. As you know, McCain’s plan is to continue those cuts.
Extending the Bush tax cuts would cost our Treasury $1.4 trillion in the next 10 years and increase the deficit in 2017 alone by more than $400 billion, according to the CBO. It’s also estimated that war costs are running us about $8 billion a month.
And WORSE, the Fed’s Ben Bernanke told Congress last week that we are merely in the “calm before the storm”. Bernanke said that the nation faces “draconian” choices between severe cuts in benefits and steep tax increases if Congress does not act. So here we are between a rock and a hard place. What do we do, seriously cut back on “entitlements like Social Security and Medicare, or do we raise taxes? No member of Congress wants to touch this hot potato. Our next president, whoever he is, will be forced to deal with this mess.
Posted by: Center One | Jul 29, 2008 4:03:49 PM
I think that many of McCain's positions that are credited with principles are in fact positions of very limited intelligence! The man does not know anything about the Economy, where Iraq, Iran, Pakistan or Afghanistan are in relation to each other, the different between the Shiites and Sunnis or much else. What is Amazing is how anyone can be an Senator for so many years and know so little about so much! McCain is too Stupid to be an Senator, too Stupid to be President and too Treasonous to be an American!
McCain's Hispanic Outreach person Juan Hernandez was a Cabinet member in Mexico's Vicente Fox's government and VP of the racist hate organization La Raza & is openly for reconquest of the American Southwest!.
Some of his comments.
“I never knew the border as a limitation; I’d be delighted if all of us could come and go between these two marvelous countries.”
“We have recognized that the Mexican population is 100 million in Mexico and 23 million who live in the United States…We are a united nation.”
Mexican immigrants “are going to keep one foot in Mexico and are not going to assimilate.”
“We are betting that the Mexican population in the United States …will think Mexico first.”
Obviously McCain agrees with his adviser or he would get another adviser, so it appears McCain is an American traitor like Benedict Arnold and should be attested, tried for treason, gave a fast but fair trial then an public execution!
Obama the Great One------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Action talks, Bull Sh-t walks! Barrack sit at the feet of his friend and Mentor for 20 years, supported him with his money, his family, subjected his children to his hate filled rants and listened to hate whites, hate Jews, hate American, hate everyone with the exception of Blacks and Muslims!
All the pundits, talking heads, Liberal arguments and warm tingling feelings below the belt or Speeches wrote by speech writers and read by Obama cannot change the facts.
Barrack Obama & his wife are American hating, Black Power Racist!
Now he says it was repugnant to him and he does not endorse it or agree! It is 20 years too late for anyone with an brain to accept. Either Barrack is lying or he has an serious mental problem! No one in their right mind would sit in an church like that for 20 years and support it every way possible unless they agreed or they were crazy!
Just imagine, if an White Republican politician had sit at the feet of his Friend and Mentor in an Baptist Church for 20 years and listened to him preach, rant and spew out racist hate rants against everyone and everything, with exception of Whites and Baptists.
Oh the Outrage, the Moral Condemnation, The Media, Blacks leaders & Rev's of every cracker jack box, Liberal and Democrats, Republican politicians, in fact every one in the known and unknown universe would be calling for his head, anyone that spoke in his defense would immediately be tarred with the same brush, no punishment would be enough, just resigning from office would not be enough, the poor follow would have to change his name, travel incognito and flee the country with his family, the church and its all its members disbanded and scattered to the four winds!
What does Barrack have to do? Why just make an nice little speech blaming it all on his little old white grandmother, just throw her under the bus of his ambition and if that is not enough, just whites in general!
But Wait! That is for the Rev. Wright and his hate rants, Not why Obama the Great one, the scion of the goat herder, the son of the typical black father, that has came to lead American & the world to the promise land, the Second coming, sit in the church for 20 years and listened to his Friend and Mentor spew out hate Rants that He, The Supreme Ego found both repugnant and disgusting in just one little speech blaming all but the Great One and all is right in Obama Land!
If nothing else this campaign has Exposed the racism of Blacks and the total Blinding, Unbelievable Hypocrisy, the like of any Balance or Morals that the Liberals, Media and Politicians in general have! They have been exposed as Lying, Deceitful Hypocrites unable or unwilling to face the truth!
Never again, will most Americans credit them with intelligence or compassion that is deeper and purer that us poor lesser ones, because with our limited intelligences we just cannot comprehend & have to listen to the wise compassion Media and intelligence Liberals point out the errors of our ways and thinking!
Posted by: Black Saint J | Jul 29, 2008 4:18:21 PM
Oh c'mon.
Why isn't anyone mentioning the Elephant in the living room? Face it, there's a large percentage of folks out there who will never vote for someone who remotely resembles someone of African descent.
MSM and most bloggers are complete cowards for not mentioning it as a major factor- and, no, most people aren't going to self-report themselves as bigots.
Posted by: Captain Obvious | Jul 29, 2008 4:42:57 PM
Taxedaboutitall I checked your fact on Factcheck.org and your posting garbage dude and you know it.
Posted by: Monster man | Jul 29, 2008 4:46:00 PM
Aston your a dreamer aren't you? You dream about always having a nice tax cut and yet somehow this country's bills will be magicaly paid by our spending borrowed money. Oh thats right you want to spend your kids tax dollars and your garandkids tax dollars now and let them worry about it 30 & 40 years from now as long as you get to play now.
Posted by: Mudd Puppy | Jul 29, 2008 4:50:42 PM
Doesn’t Time Magazine look stupid? “Sen. Obama probably thought the prayer he penned in the solitude of his King David Hotel room in Jerusalem would remain between him and the Almighty . . . after Obama left the sacred site, an orthodox seminary student went to the Wall, fished out Obama’s personal note and delivered it to Maariv newspaper, which printed the prayer . . . Obama didn’t pray for an election victory, a lottery win . . . . on the contrary, his prayer hinted at the struggle within, how Obama is seeking divine guidance to surmount the obstacles that lie ahead of him . . . Lord, protect my family and me, forgive me my sins and help me guard against pride . . . ” Now Maariv newspaper, faced with much criticism for publishing the prayer, is reporting that they were given a copy of the “prayer” by the Obama campaign before Obama stuck it in the wall. Another Israeli newspaper, Yediot Aharonot, is reporting that it, too, had a copy of the note but decided not to print it. Could Obama really have done something as cynical as give a copy of his personal prayer to a newspaper for publication before placing it in the holy wall, where it should have remained private? As a Democrat, I’d prefer to think not. Having witnessed the arrogance and duplicity of Barack Obama and his surrogates, I’m inclined to believe the newspaper. (Am I the only person who finds it hilarious that Obama prays to God to help him guard against pride, and then makes sure the entire world knows about it?)
Posted by: JB in St. Louis | Jul 29, 2008 4:53:26 PM
So, Black Saint J: it appears you believe American voters have a choice between the Black Panthers or Grandpa Zapata. Shall we all just throw up our hands in despair and not vote?
Posted by: Center One | Jul 29, 2008 4:53:30 PM
Obama's tax policy: Tax more, Spend more on wasteful pet projects.
Posted by: al4mcattack | Jul 29, 2008 5:02:40 PM
Now let's see, where can Obama fly off to for a week or so with his New York media droolers to learn something about the economy?
How about to Hillary's house?
Posted by: ragnar30066 | Jul 29, 2008 5:05:13 PM
Does race play some role in Obama's underperformance –- probably a little bit. Does the anchor of an unpopular President weigh McCain down –- sure a bit.
I think race plays a much bigger role in Obama's underperformance than Bush does in McCain's. Even dispite his relative inexperience and obscurity to voters in many regions he should be polling much better. Clinton would be polling a little better. Race is a bigger issue in this election that I think most people are willing to admit. Again, this is not to say Obama is the perfect candidate, he's not, or that he doesn't have legitimate weaknesses, he clearly does. But his race falls into the category as one of those weaknesses. The cause? We're only 40 some-odd years removed from the Jim Crow south era. The people who lived through are old, but not all dead. Racism will take much longer and many more generations to root itself out of American society.
Posted by: JimmyTMac | Jul 29, 2008 5:15:30 PM
There is a $482 billion dollar DEFICIT looming on the U.S. horizon in 2009.
George W. Bush = Biggest spender in U.S. history i.e. the Iraq War. The impact: Higher food prices, gas prices rising, less money for education and healthcare, and home foreclosures.
There is a $482 billion dollar DEFICIT looming on the U.S. horizon in 2009.
Would adults, with at least some college education, post comments on this Board? The adolescent name-calling is getting old. Picking up and regurgitating McCain's daily complaints against Obama, without offering details of what he (McCain) is proposing, shows a lack of intellect.
There is a $482 billion dollar DEFICIT looming on the U.S. horizon in 2009.
Posted by: I-Vote | Jul 29, 2008 5:16:30 PM
Center One ...I cannot tell anyone how to vote. I would hope more Americans are choosing to decide whom to vote for with their brains and not votes for Party labels. As for me, I will write in the Name of the only Politician that I had respect for and believed he was an man of integrity & said what he believed instead of the lies they wanted to hear. I did not agree with all of his positions but I did respect the man, something that I find it impossible to do with our currant Candidates! I refuse to vote for the lessor of two evils or Politician I cannot respect or have any confidence in and think they are Pandering/Corrupt/Worthless examples of humans & politicians!
Posted by: Black Saint J | Jul 29, 2008 5:48:06 PM
Black Saint J, I see your stand, but think you are throwing your vote away. I have decided to step away from the personalities (I don’t like either) and cast my vote for the US economy and our kids’ future. Republicans have promoted the idea of tax cuts for the rich + lower tax rates on capital gains as a way to increase US tax revenues by growing the economy. Good ole “Reaganomics” appeared to work in an era of economic growth, so it became cherished Republican policy (in spite of increased Federal deficits). However, there are important pieces of “Reaganomics” missing from McCain’s economic plans: Reagan had a tight money supply (to control inflation) and the US was not drowning under BILLIONS of war debt. Defenders of a “free” or “supply-side” market say these policies promote lower unemployment, higher wages, and lower prices. Unfortunately the US has hit a wall of massive federal deficits, increased income inequality, inflation, and weak job growth. The Fed’s Bernanke is an expert on the Great Depression – even he says tax cuts alone won’t work. I am voting for Obama because I believe he is the smartest, most flexible, and capable of reaching across the aisle in Congress. Somehow, we must find a way to work together to keep our country strong.
Posted by: Center One | Jul 29, 2008 6:22:20 PM
Center One...To each his own..But I cannot vote for either one. I do think Obama is much more intelligence then McCain but I do believe that 20 years of actions are enough to make a very valid judgment that Obama is at the very least an Racist. Which his actions are also supported by his words in his book, Dreams of my Father!
I cannot and will not vote for anyone that supports Amnesty for the invading horde of Illegal Aliens. I believe they are the most serious of many serious problems facing this Nation!
The 20 to 40 millions of uneducated illegal aliens currently residing in the USA is turning the USA into the largest Socialist Nation in the world. Each person with less than a high school education, Legal or Illegal is an net drain of 20k per year on the backs of American tax payers.
The businesses employing the Illegal Aliens are in effect enjoying nearly slave labor while pocketing the profits and passing on the actual cost to American tax payers of not only his employees but all of their family members residing with them.
The cost for their Medical, Schooling and Welfare makes them the most expensive manual labor in the world. Now we have both Presidential candidates pandering for the Latino vote and promising Amnesty which will compound the problems allowing them to access even more social benefits!
The globalist, multiculturalism, open border advocates, liberals & businesses profiting from Illegal Aliens argument that they the Illegal Aliens pay tons of taxes, sure they all pay real estate taxes (in rent) and sales taxes (most states). Those working on the books approximately 35 % using stolen Social Security numbers or other fraudulent documents pay FICA and, perhaps, income taxes. But they're mostly ill-educated and low-skilled and pay very low taxes connected to their working. In fact, most claim the Earned Income Tax Credit, i.e. negative income tax! Of course, the remaining 65% of the Illegal Aliens working off the books typically work for cash and pay nothing except real estate taxes (in rent) and sales taxes (most states).
Robert Rector at the Heritage Foundation has done the systematic accounting on all this. A typical household headed by a low-skilled illegal alien is a net drain of about $20k/year for the rest of us, year after year. (Low-skilled Americans are a similar burden, but they're part of the national family, not gate crashers from other societies.)
The Latinos that make up the largest group of the Illegal Aliens population has the largest school drop out rate of any ethnic group in the USA, second highest illegitimate birth rate, second highest crime rate, highest birth rate and recent studies confirm they start dropping out of school, using drugs, having illegitimate kids, joining gangs at an earlier age then any ethnic group in the USA. This behavior continues even after citizenship and down through each generation. This culture characteristic explains why Mexico and Latin American, while having more natural resources and moderate climate than most First World Nations are still mired in an Cesspool of Crime, Corruption, Poverty and Misery!
Amnestying them & with chain immigration for their relatives and their relatives in an never ending chain will add 100,s of millions, a vast underclass of uneducated citizens that will make it impossible to continue the social network for American tax payers. When that occurs you will see riots, fires and pillage from coast to coast that will make the recent rioting in French by Muslim immigrants look like an cook out!
Mexico's total economic policy is to send their Uneducated peons and Criminals to the US for Tax payers to support and be the Victims, Businesses to Exploit and Corrupt Politicians to Pander and Cuddle! While Mexico has one of the most punitive and strictly enforced immigration policies in the world!
A recent study by the International Monetary fund confirms that remittance is not only is bad for the remittance country but for the country receiving the money. It allows the home country (normally third world nations) to keep from addressing the problems and improving their citizens standard of living and continue the same policies and keeping in power the corrupt government without facing an revolution and demands from citizens for improvements. So, our open borders and amnesty for the invading horde of illegal aliens is not only bad policy for this Nation but perpetrates the poverty and misery in the home countries.
We are now seeing that the Illegal Aliens can not only impact this Nation but the global economy as well. Many of the Sub-Prime loans & defaults were to Illegal Aliens that started the unraveling of the Global Economy! Just like our Declining standard of living, Bankrupt Hospitals, Failing Schools, Welfare costs, Identity fraud, Welfare fraud, Voter fraud, Gangs, Crime, Crowded prisons, Destroyed communities, Exploding population, Congested roads, Pollution, Insurance costs, Balance of payments, (Imported oil etc. to support the illegal alien population) Trashed Constitution and the Rule of Law, they have spread their negative impact across the world.
It looks like with American heading into a very bad recession or more likely an depression, The 100,s of billions the Illegal Aliens are costing American tax payers for free medical, schooling, welfare etc. needs to be spend on American citizens, not invading criminals from third world counties, plus the 40 to 50 billions remittance by Illegal aliens needs to stay in the country to simulate this economy and force Mexico to address their problems!
Last but not least, all Nations immigration policies are by design & intent suppose to enhance the Nation and its Citizens that immigrated legally, obeyed the laws, paid the taxes, fought the wars and built the nation! Clearly for the reasons numerated above Amnesty for the invading horde of uneducated peons and criminals does not meet this criteria.
They certainly must not be used to further the political careers and lust for power of Corrupt/Pandering Politicians like Obama & McCain!
Posted by: Black Saint J | Jul 29, 2008 6:52:36 PM
It's simple, Senator McCain doesn't have the intellect nor the temperment to make a good President. He's not qualified for the job.
And if Senator Obama were white, he'd be up by 20 points in the polls. As There are people who refuse to vote for someone based on the color of their skin and that is just plain sad.
Posted by: NoMcCain | Jul 29, 2008 6:57:45 PM
It is quite obvious that Obama would be better for the economy. While Obama wants to help Americans and spend more money helping the people of the country afford healthcare and education, McCain is just itching to start another war with Iran, not to mention keeping troops in Iraq for 100 years.
Could you imagine if the US goes to war with Iran? With Obama it would only be as the last resort and it would be with European allies defending our country.
If McCain is the one to instigate the war (as he has already done with his 'bomb Iran' song), it will be disastrous. The best case scenario is it will start World War 3, with the US and Israel fighting all of the middle east. You can bet the Europeans will barely get involved after the mess they b