Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
RECENT POSTS
- Obama Didn't Buy the Presidency
- Dowd: Top Five Reasons McCain Will Likely Lose
- Obama's Race to Lose; Pressure Points on Palin
- The Remaining Game Changers
- Two Conventions Down
- Democratic Convention: Mechanics Good, Message Missing
- VP Choice: Another Meaningful '08 Moment
- Michigan Memories & Musings
- It's the Economy...Again
- Obama Brand: Truth or Consequences
MONTHLY ARCHIVES
| Sun | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | |
| 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 |
| 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 |
« Previous | Main | Next »
It's the Economy...Again
July 29, 2008 8:47 AM
Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor
So, the general election campaign has been going on about 45 days, and where do things stand?
Interestingly, almost exactly where it did when the two person race started nearly two months ago.
Barack Obama is up about five points over John McCain, and that number really hasn't changed at all. And this despite a very positive, widely covered trip overseas by Obama, in conjunction with some mistakes made along the way by John McCain and his surrogates, as well as lots of ads aired and released by each campaign.
If all you did was add up the media reports on the race, you would think this race holds an overwhelming lead by Obama. But voters have not yet made that decision.
What does this tell us?
First, both candidates are underperforming where they should be based on two indicators: 1) the incumbent President has a job approval rating in the high 20s, the worst position ever for a president in the midst of a presidential election, and 2) Democrats have at least a ten-point advantage on the generic ballot and partisan voter affiliation.
Obama's biggest advantage today is not his historic candidacy or his ability to give a speech or this efficient campaign organization, but the fact he has a D on his back. My guess is any other Democrat running this year would have at least a five point lead if not larger.
I noted the other day that the Democratic Governor of Kansas said that Obama had long coattails in her state. I think actually the reverse is true; he is benefiting from the coattails of Democrats generally.
In fact, as of right now, Democrats are a bit better off running separately from Obama, and Republicans are better off associating as closely as they can with McCain.
And on McCain's underperformance, we take a look at his favorability among Independents and you would think he would have the lead. He is in one of the best positions among Independents as any candidate running for president in last thirty years. Yet he is behind.
So why is this happening? Probably a few reasons.
Does race play some role in Obama's underperformance –- probably a little bit. Does the anchor of an unpopular President weigh McCain down –- sure a bit.
But I think what is preventing either candidate to do as well as they should, is that the dominant issue in this race is the economy (jobs, cost of health care, gas prices), and neither candidate has found their voice to talk about it, to address voter concerns, and to present a compelling vision for the 21st century.
And not only has each candidate not found their voice, but each candidate seems to look for an opportunity to talk about anything else but this issue. If you add up the first 45 days of this general election, the majority of time has been spent on something other than the economy. Quite unbelievable when pocketbook issues are driving American's votes.
There is now less than 100 days until election day, and the candidates don't have a lot of time to fix this situation. (I note this week Obama and McCain are trying to address the economy.) And the longer this goes on, the more this race will settle into historic factors which has nothing to do with the candidate's and their campaign's performance.
I believe that the first candidate to find their voice on the economy and speak to voters fears and hopes related to that issue will be the candidate most likely to take the oath of office in 2009.
July 29, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (99)
You can follow this conversation by subscribing to the comment feed for this post.
Kind of like a sales pitch at a timeshare eh Gloria?
Posted by: tigger | Jul 29, 2008 11:00:40 AM
Allen: Millions of American's are lazy like you and want to live off SSI checks, Link Cards and Medicaid. Everything for nothing. But let me remind you that you don't live like the people that have good jobs, making good money and a nice apartment, home or condo. And what makes you think Obama will win. Nothing is for sure in this world even the presidency. Don't take things for granted it doesn't work. What the government needs to do is stop the Link Cards. There are people selling them for cash to buy drugs.
Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Jul 29, 2008 11:03:18 AM
The economy is good for those that are making big salaries and can afford their rent or mortgage, food and vacations, luxaries and vacations. But low income people have to stay on a budget and do without because their salaries are not that great. However, there are not enough jobs availabe and many companies are starting to lay people off. There are thousands of homeless people walking the streets today but some of these people wouldn't work if you offered them a job. They just want to live off the government.
Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Jul 29, 2008 11:09:08 AM
I'm guessing the simple reason that the poles aren't changing and most likely won't is because most people have made up their minds and all the campaigning, pandering, bashing and web blogs in the world won't make much of a difference from here until November. Obama will win the Presidency by somewhere between 5 and 8 points.
Posted by: dan | Jul 29, 2008 11:11:16 AM
I am just sick of all of it. This election has worn me out. I am sick of both parties. I am just ready to see an actual debate and see how well each person reacts to the questions, but we will have to wait some more and hear more things about each canidate that has nothing to do with their policies. I am just ready for this to be done and over with. If people dont vote its b/c they are sick of things like me and feel it doenst really matter anymore. I will go vote in November for the one I feel will be the better choice, but right now neither of them is looking too good.
Posted by: Life | Jul 29, 2008 11:12:56 AM
For everyone that believes the polls are gospel I have just one name for you.....John Kerry
Posted by: tigger | Jul 29, 2008 11:14:29 AM
Its people like Allen that wants everything for nothing, to sit back, relax and grill steaks on his deck (probably a back porch)doesn't want to work but live from an SSI check, buy food with a Link Card and use Medicaid for his illness. People like him like to live like the rich with a beer pocket, never have anything, go nowhere and just stay in that dingy apartment day to day.
Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Jul 29, 2008 11:15:59 AM
Obama: Please! Explain how you would fund your socialist medical plan! What would the coverage be? Are illegals really to be covered? Please -- enlighten us.!
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jul 29, 2008 11:16:56 AM
Today's mortgage crisis sounds a lot like the Savings & Loan scandal of the 90's.
If you look at John McCain's involvement in the Keating Five scandal back then, you will never vote for him.
Making matters worse is that Cindy McCain made millions by being a real estate business partner with Keating for mortgages done by Keatings failed Lincoln Savings & Loan.
Posted by: Dan | Jul 29, 2008 11:21:03 AM
I am so tired of hearing from pundits the the candidates have not found their "voice" on the economy. The "voice" is out and it is clear and loud. The candidates are polar opposits from taxes to energy. If the pundits did their job (i.e. work) and published articles compairing and contrasting the candidates position on a point by point basis the public would be better off.
Posted by: Bob | Jul 29, 2008 11:21:22 AM
The big elephant in the room everybody is ignoring is the latent racism towards Obama. If Obama was white the race would be over. He is just that good. Obama will win, but not by much. Change is never easy. Ask McStatusQuo. Obama will do more for all disenfranchised Americans than the Republican Party would ever do. Ask McStatusQuo.
Posted by: Tom | Jul 29, 2008 11:28:25 AM
Dan
The mortgage crisis looks much more like legislators looking the other way because of the sweetheart mortgage deals they were given. And that included Obama!
Nice try though - but quite superficial!
Posted by: S | Jul 29, 2008 11:30:54 AM
Where is Obama hiding his baby mama?
Posted by: Soetoro No! | Jul 29, 2008 11:34:01 AM
If Obama was white, he wouldn't be running at all----there is nothing good about this guy and was only chosen because of his color. He is qualified. There are actually intelligent people black, white, indian, hispanic whatever that are much better qualified than the crook Obama. Atleast Hiliary our would be first woman president was atleast intelligent and had a clue....Obama is so dumb that he had to copy of Hiliary in debates.
Posted by: chattyway | Jul 29, 2008 11:34:06 AM
Correction: He (Obama) isn't qualified to even be elected dog catcher.
Posted by: chattyway | Jul 29, 2008 11:35:03 AM
Let me give you an actual insight about polling. I happen to work for one of the more prominent polling organizations. I worked this past Sunday for 6 hours. Here is the actual data from random dialing. The average dial's per hour was 87. Out of 87 dials the incidence rate (the number of people who actually complete the interview per hour) was 1.75 people per hour. I completed 13 interviews Sunday, or a little above the actual incidence rate. Out of the 13 completed interviews, 9 were over the age of 72. Of the 9 over 72, 3 were voting Republican, 4 Democratic,(one of those wanted to know who was running), 1 said he was Democrat but selected neither candidate and 1 stated he would never vote for a ni--er and didn't like McCain. Those two voters were recorded as other. Of the other 4, 1 stated he was voting for Socialist Workers Party candidate Roger Calero, and one was leaning Libertarian, Bob Barr. The other 2 were split, one a 36 year old female was voting for Obama and the other a 48 year old male, McCain. My average connection rate was 34, meaning that of 87 households dialed per hour, 34 actually picked up the phone and spoke to me. Out of that 34 who answered more than 31 either hung up or didn't have time to interview for one or another reason. Now, how accurate do you think polls are?
Posted by: paul mall | Jul 29, 2008 11:51:50 AM
Hey people what i said is a joke, i'm sick of both parties promising the moon for everybody, printing money out of thin air or borrowing from China. Both parties are a joke. I'm self employed, i choose to work 70 to 80 hours a week if i have to, I DO WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE!!!! But i'm tired of working my butt off sending my money to the federal government and watch it wasted away.
When are you people going to realize
that big government (both sides are guilty) can't fix your problems. If you wan't effective government, it starts at the local level, then the state and 3rd the federal level. You can control the money flow with smaller governemt, than a big government. Can you imagine a national health care system run by the federal governemnt, look at there track record!! If you wan't government health care than start at the local level with a primary doctor, than let the state handle bigger cases. Let the federal government make the guidelines for the states to follow. This means your local taxes are the highest at the local level followed by the state and 3rd the clowns in the federal governaent. For the first time in my adult life i'm not proud of my federal government, but the people and the ideas of this country are still the best in the world, and like i said both parties are guilty! They have sold us out!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Posted by: Allen | Jul 29, 2008 11:53:14 AM
McCain reached backwards for his economic advisor and picked the slime ball from Georgia Phil Gramm, and please don't blog back about him being a Texan. He was born and raised in Georgia educated in Georgia, then carepetbagged to Texas. Why anyone here voted for the four eye toad still leavews me scratching my head. The scum bag hasen't returned to live here and that I like. McCain's chosie in Gramm says volumes about his inability to choose quality people, but rather party hacks who are in it for their own personal gain.
Posted by: Saddlesablazing | Jul 29, 2008 12:14:21 PM
It's the energy ... stupid .
For average people, the rapid price rise of gasoline, heating fuel , food, drugs, medical care and other living costs mean the rate of inflation is very high, probably higher than the time when jamie Carter was president. Where to get the energy, the politicians want to bet heavily on solar , wind and bio-fuels, the chances are : after huge investment, we can replace only at most a few percent of current energy supply from fossil fuels and coals.
Posted by: austin | Jul 29, 2008 12:17:33 PM
Soetoro we do know where McPopeye's baby mama is he married her after having an affair with her whilke still married to wife number 1 who waited on his sorry axx the whole time he was a POW, then he had affair after affair on her. Even Ronald & Nancy Reagan couldn't stand the trud for doing his wife that way. Nancy Reagan then gave his ex a job in her office and made sure she was taken care of.
Posted by: Saddlesablazing | Jul 29, 2008 12:18:54 PM
Post a comment