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Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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VP Choice: Another Meaningful '08 Moment

August 20, 2008 7:08 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Well, the two major party candidates are about to make the one of the most important decisions they will make in their political lives…and possibly their lives in total.   Who will Obama and McCain pick for their vice-presidential nominee and why did they pick them and what does this tell us about Obama and McCain?

Many analysts and pundits have focused and will focus on the questions of what does the pick do to shore up a weakness or what does it do to highlight a strength or how does this pick affect a certain demography or geography (meaning does it deliver a constituency or a state that was problematic before).  All of these are very valid discussions.

But I would like to focus on three different questions that we should ask or explore when these picks emerge in the days to come:

First,  did Obama and McCain make a decision that followed their gut or heart, or did they make a decision that followed their head.   Many of us never get a chance to pick a vice-president, but we do make important decisions in our lives – relationships, jobs, how we raise our kids, etc.  And from my vantage point the best decisions are those when we make them from our heart and follow our intuition.  Many times our heads get in the way of what we is best for us.  I believe that when we start doing balance sheet analysis of decisions and weighing pros and cons, then we are already away from our heart and we are going to likely make a decision that doesn’t work.  I think the same is true of the Presidential candidates.   As Americans, the most important aspect of a candidate is their gut values, and so the important pick for vice-president should reflect that.  Lets look at these decisions they make and weigh if they made a heart decision or a head decision. 

Second,  following closely from the first, is did they weigh the political affect more importantly than how the relationship will work over the next four years and whether a trust exists.  Did they go for the short term affect and not give proper weight to the functioning of the office of the Presidency in all the manifestations of policy and communication and leadership.   The complicated nature of the 21st century and the needs and desires of all Americans for a proper functioning federal government, I believe demands that the pick be about a partnership and that four years should matter much more than than next sixty days.   Many of us Americans have dysfunction in our own lives and families, and we don’t need institutionalized dysfunction that we actually have to pay for with our taxes!

Thirdly, did the pick represent a person that will appeal to the President’s best instincts or worst instincts.  All of us have seeds of bad or good embedded in us, and a key is surrounding ourselves with people who water the good and weed the bad.   And the  bubble affect of the White House is so dramatic, that a President will spend the vast majority of his time around only a few people.  So whether a vice-president brings out the best and pushes the President to be his best self I believe is key.  We have seen recent Presidents who have brought people into their administrations who have done the exact opposite and it turned out to be disastrous at many different levels.

So, these are the three I would focus on when the picks are made:  1. was it heart or head; 2. was it about a partnership or just politics; 3. does pick appeal to good or bad in person.

And by the way, examining the political ramifications of a pick can be a dicey proposition anyway.  I remember full well in 1988 when Dukakis made what most considered a brilliant political pick (Bentsen) and Bush made what many regarded as a horrible pick (Quayle), who ran away with that election. 

See ya in Denver. 

August 20, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (83)

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How does McCain justify Ridge, when he said on national TV. Prolife, prolife past, prolife administration.
More like prolife BS!
Like most of his innuendo!

Posted by: DAVID NH | Aug 20, 2008 7:30:04 AM

If Obama doesn't choose Hillary I believe he will not win the election. Hillary's voters will definately not vote for him no matter what she says. Biden, Bayh, Kathleen, Kaine, Nunn, are not qualified to be the VP and never will be. Kathleen especially and I don't know how she got to be governor. Biden's mouth would get Obama in trouble. Kaine, Bayh and Nunn should just stay in their jobs. Obama is making a circus out of his convention and has too many speakers there. Obama wants world wide attention because he never had it as a youngster but it will all end if he is elected. This country will be in a disaster like never before. He lacks the experience in all fazes of politics and needs someone to advise him on all his moves. Bill Clinton, Reagan, Bush,Sr., JFK were all smart president's and well prepared for day one. Obama will not be and will make many wrong moves while he is in office unless he has the right VP who can assist him. McCain doesn't need any to assist him because he is well qualified and experiences in every field of politics.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Aug 20, 2008 7:46:28 AM

tell us who McCain's choice is going to be . He's got some excitement building

Posted by: tellussoon | Aug 20, 2008 7:52:18 AM

Obama is a mess and his VP selection won't matter. During the recent appearances on faith and morality, Obama was asked when a fetus gets rights. He answered that question was "above his pay grade".

Sorry Obama. The job of President is ABOVE YOUR PAY GRADE. Thankfully the American people are starting to figure that out.

Posted by: Jim | Aug 20, 2008 7:54:47 AM

I am so sick and tried of Hillary whiners saying they will not vote for Obama. Go ahead and vote for McBush. Your are mindless repubs anyway and was not going to vote for Obama anyway. She lost fair and square, stop crying. The well oiled machine lost to an upstart and they were stunned.

Posted by: hendu30349 | Aug 20, 2008 7:56:54 AM

Many of the people that make comments about the candidate's do not know the first thing about politics. I don't know where they get some of these statements plus they say whatever comes into their head. The public definately is aware that Obama is not an experienced politician and that he is in this race only to make history like MLK. He got obsessed by reading many books on MLK and now wants to be more popular than him. The reason for his wanting the arena for the convention is because he wanted an overly large crowd like MLK use to get when he was speaking and marching. He wants to make history so bad he can taste it but McCain has a good chance of winning this election. McCain is a polished politician which Obama lacks. I am well aware that PUMA is smarter than the public about Obama and they can see right thru him but it could all come to an end at the convention. No one knows what is going to happen that day.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Aug 20, 2008 7:57:50 AM

Hendu: If Obama is an upstart you better go back to school and get an education of politics. We all know about Obama being a schemer like Nancy Pelosi and Dean. All three of them made deals with the superdelegates not to vote for Hillary because Nancy wanted to be the lady in charge and she would like to be running for president. I am hoping for a backlash at the convention to give Nancy and Dean a shock. There are going to be too many no nothings, do nothings, say nothing speaker's at the convention. Its going to be like a circus. All they need is the elephants to make it real.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Aug 20, 2008 8:04:08 AM

Jim: You are so right. I listened to the forum and Obama couldn't get the answer's out of his mouth fast enough. He had to think what to say. He is a mess and no matter who he picks he will be running the country in name only. His VP will have to advise him on everything he says. Biden, Bayh and Kaine are not qualified for the position of VP only what they are doing now and Biden as a mouth that won't stop. Kathleen should stay as governor and be glad she got that job. She is a pain. If Obama doesn't pick Hillary he has a chance of losing this election and hopefully all her voters will throw their vote to McCain or write her name in.

Posted by: Mariann Pepitone | Aug 20, 2008 8:11:49 AM

"VP Choice: Another Meaningful '08 Moment"

Might be. To me he looks silly waiting for the opportune time to make his choice known.

While Obama might have the media's and public's attention, he doesn't seem to know what to do with it.

He successfully made this Campaign about him, what about policies?

To hell with the "Change" theme, the only change I want, or care about are policy changes. So while he is so careful about his image I am not winning.

Make the announcement and get on with hitting McCain and the Republican Party hard.

Posted by: Thinking | Aug 20, 2008 8:27:17 AM

Wow....ABC have you noticed how obsessed your news is with Obama's vp choice? Your whole headline news offering is dominated by Obama. Do you try to equal out coverage at all or is this a total thing of the past?

Posted by: rafraf | Aug 20, 2008 8:45:59 AM

i was watching lord of the rings two towers and in that movie there was a scene were the ent tree beard says "the filth of saramon is washing away" that is what obama should say when he wins this fall but chnage the name "the filth of bush is washing away" bush and his devil worshiping republican party have created alot of filth.

Posted by: tom | Aug 20, 2008 8:47:49 AM

Without his teleprompter, Obama is just another candidate. People thought Hillary was being unfair when she stated that Obama "is not electable". Take a good look at all the latest polls, his big lead is now gone, and Rasmussenreports.com, probably the best pollster out there has even had McCain ahead a couple times in the last few weeks. For all the negatives that the Clintons bring to the table, they also bring a lot of experience and political wisdom. All you Clinton haters might just be eating your words come November. If Obama blows this election, it will go down in history as the biggest collapse in the modern era of politics.

Posted by: JRS | Aug 20, 2008 8:55:11 AM

jrs---obama will win dont worry.america wont vote for mccain he is just more demonic republican crap.

Posted by: tom | Aug 20, 2008 9:01:03 AM

I see this blog allows only Obama bashing.

Posted by: Ronaldraygun | Aug 20, 2008 9:01:19 AM

John McCain isn't fit for promotion to Admiral so what makes him fit for the Presidency.

Posted by: Ronaldraygun | Aug 20, 2008 9:02:25 AM

To Mariann Pepitone:
Please do NOT vote for Obama. Please vote your heart and vote for McBush. If you are that narrow minded and think the last 8 years have been the greatest in our history, that is your decision. But for the most of us who have experienced 9/11, two UNDECLARED wars, over 4,550 service deaths, Katrina, high energy prices, the housing bubble burst, the banking meltdown, etc., the choice is real simple. If you want to think everything is ok, be my guest and vote for McBush. The rest of us care about the direction of America. Besides, the repubs have their own issue other than an election:
http://www.armchairsubversive.org/

Posted by: hendu30349 | Aug 20, 2008 9:06:05 AM

Obama is dropping like a bolder!!! It was inevitable that this was going to happen. The DNC (Dean & Pelosi) along with Obama and his staff said and did anything to get superdelegate votes thrown Obama's way! The people didn't elect him and those that voted for him are realizing that he is nothing but an empty suit so by November he will lose and lose BIG! The only person that can give him a win is Hillary and he is too arrogant & egotistical to pick her. So when he loses remember to thank Obama, his staff and the liberal media!

Posted by: loving politics | Aug 20, 2008 9:13:43 AM

Yawn. Obama VP pick. Yawn.

Posted by: Kitty | Aug 20, 2008 9:15:30 AM

Each candidate will make the choice based on political expediency, winning. There are no good choices in politics these days and both parties have shown their ability to do nothing in congress.

They have both moved so far center as to lose any identity they started with. McCain must protect his position with the conservatives and that means a pro life VP. Obama can just about select anyone to improve his lot with the voters, because he is lacking in so many areas.

This election will come down to the voters in the booth on election day making the hard decision to go with or without experience and the candidates reinforce this everyday.

Can't wait for the debates to show us voters who can take the heat but, I think I already know the answer.

Posted by: Independent minded | Aug 20, 2008 9:16:49 AM

Marianee
Stop with the melt down already dont vote for obama vote for mccain you seem to have the same mentality as mccain me being an obama supporter we dont need mindless sensless people like you you people can all jump on the mcbush wagon!!!!!!!!! the obama supporters happen to care about our childrens future!! and are SICK OF THE LAST EIGHT YEARS WE DONT WANT ANYMORE OF BUSH!!!!!!!!!!!!

Posted by: angie | Aug 20, 2008 9:20:31 AM

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