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Obama's Race to Lose; Pressure Points on Palin

September 30, 2008 8:53 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

One debate down, two presidential debates and one vice presidential to go, so let's take a look at the landscape.

By nearly all accounts, Obama won the first debate, even though it wasn't overwhelming, but it will serve to give Obama a slight bump in the polls (which it already has) and solidify his single digit lead.   

Since the debate, Obama is ahead pretty consistently by four to six points.  And this lead is significant for a couple reasons.

First, as I have written previously, the equilibrium of this race seems to be Obama with a slight lead and this will soon begin to lock in.  And with early voting starting soon in some states, every day Obama holds a lead means votes in the can.

Second, as best I can tell, no one running for president since 1976 who has held a consistent lead after the first debate has ever lost.  Strange things can happen, but McCain will have to surprise many if he comes back at this point.

So what happens next?

All the pressure is on Sarah Palin for the vice presidential  debate.  She goes in with many voters concerned about her answers to media questions over the last week or so.  A significant number of Americans do not believe she is qualified to be president.  And concern and infighting is beginning to surface among Republicans about her performance.

In fact, many Republicans are saying the problem is that the McCain campaign needs to "let Palin be Palin".   (Hmmm, I remember well many folks saying that about Bush after some mistakes in his campaigns, and thinking, well, sometimes we didn't want Bush to be Bush.)

This kind of statement by Republicans encourages me to add another rule to some rules I have come up with which are tell-tale signs a campaign is in trouble.

Rule One: When a campaign starts attacking the media, things aren't going well.

Rule Two: When a campaign says the polls are wrong, things aren't very good. 

Rule Three: When a campaign says "the only poll that counts is the one on election day" usually means a campaign is about to lose.

Now we could probably add a new one: when partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course.

What will McCain and Palin do at this point?  My guess is the campaign will encourage Palin to make some off the wall accusations at the debate in order to get under Biden's skin, and hope he makes a mistake by engaging her too passionately.

Or maybe McCain will fly to Afghanistan and look for Osama Bin Laden himself.  You just never know.

At this point, this race is Obama's to lose, and absent a significant mistake it will be tough for McCain to win.  McCain's destiny is no longer in his hands.  Though in a strange election, strange things can happen.

September 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (252) | TrackBack (0)

The Remaining Game Changers

September 22, 2008 7:42 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

So, now, with only a few days until the first presidential debate, which is likely to garner record viewership, it seems a good time to take stock of the patterns that have developed and the possible game changers that could still emerge in these final weeks of the election.

As expected, the Palin pop subsided and Obama has retaken a small lead in the race.  It seems the equilibrium in this race is Obama leading McCain by a small but formidable few percentage points.  Events happen, and then this lead returns.  This lead is mainly driven by the generic party advantages the Democrats have this year because of an unpopular administration and voters' hunger for real change in Washington.

What can change this Obama built-in lead advantage?

First, the events of last week related to the financial meltdown of established institutions could cause this lead to grow, or at least solidify for Obama.  Why?

If this race becomes solely about the economy, then Democrats have a huge advantage.  They lead Republicans solidly in polling on this issue and that hasn't changed much in last few months.  McCain's answers about the economy being "fundamentally sound" certainly haven't helped him when voters are asked to judge if he appreciates what's going on in their lives.

In addition, in most voters' minds, last week's crisis was deserving of collective action by the country and serious government involvement.  In recent U.S. political history, when the country is in a collective action mood, Democrats have almost always gained the advantage.  When the country is more focused on individual action or responsibility, Republicans usually gain.  This desire for government involvement will help the Democrats because voters' assumptions will be that Democrats are more likely to be good at that.

Yet, the debate on Friday and the other remaining debates could reset the equilibrium of the race and bring McCain to parity or possibly with a lead.  But debates could also provide an opportunity for Obama to break the race open and widen his sliver of a lead. 

Either outcome depends entirely on each candidate's ability to connect and perform at the debates.  The question will be who will be first to really set the tone?  If one significantly falters, then the gameclock on this cycle could be significantly reset.  McCain needs a win to overcome Obama's built in advantage in this race.

I look forward to watching.

September 22, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (187) | TrackBack (0)

Two Conventions Down

September 15, 2008 11:06 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Two conventions down, big ABC interview with Governor Palin, and big debate on the horizon so where do we stand in this presidential race?

Obama got a brief, temporary lift from his convention in Denver and his speech on the last night, but this lift disappeared within 24 hours of the speech.  Why?

McCain introduced 'Hurricane Palin' to the country and it quickly moved from a Category One to a Category Three, overwhelming the Democrats (probably briefly) and taking over the Republican Convention in the Twin Cities.

McCain has not only succeeded in knocking down Obama's bump but has actually taken a small lead in the presidential race.

The open question is: how long will the Palin pop last?  Will the new introduction of her be an iPod or will it be the pet rock (quickly gathered up and then put on a shelf)?  Time will tell.

We should all keep in mind that in 1984 Walter Mondale was behind by double digits before he picked Geraldine Ferraro as his vice presidential nominee.  The race quickly went to even, and in some polls Mondale had a slight lead.  Within ten days to two weeks the race trended right back to where it was before Mondale picked her.

My guess is this race will trend back to even soon, then Obama with a small insignificant lead before the first debate on September 26th, and then the public will again look at both and decide. 

A couple of my own observations from watching the last few weeks and maybe a few unasked for suggestions:

1.  Since the Palin pick, the Obama campaign has seemed to lose some of their mojo.  They need to get it back, and probably next best time is the debate.

If I were the Obama folks, I would be spending most of my time preparing and practicing for that debate, and trying to get answers down to brief direct responses which connect with people. 

I also think Obama should consider accepting McCain challenge for a series of town hall debates but only agree if Palin does same against Biden.

2. McCain has been successful in the short run of co-opting Obama's change message.  I say short run because for months the McCain's effort was all about ready vs. not ready, and now this shift happened because of the Palin pick. 

When I watched the speeches at the convention in the Twin Cities and McCain and Palin on the trail, I almost find it surreal.  The Republicans' message seems to be a combination of 'If you want a change from us, vote for us' or 'We broke it, let us fix it'. 

It is amazing, but I don't think this can be sustained for the next fifty days.  It reminds me of the joke I made in a campaign meeting in 2004 for Bush and said our slogan should be "Things suck, stay the course".

3. The Charlie Gibson interviews with Sarah Palin were informative and interesting, but weren't over the top, as many suggested. 

If Palin supporters think that was over the top, well then they should just wait for when 50 microphones are shoved in her face over a controversy. 

In most respects Palin handled herself reasonably well, though I have to say from my perspective I was most taken aback by her answer to Gibson's question about whether she hesitated when she was asked by McCain to be his vice presidential running mate.

Without batting an eyelash, she said no, and that she didn't blink or question her answer.

I would rather have someone in that position that at least hesitates and does some introspection before they make a decision that big.  At least she should have said, 'I wanted to talk to my family and think about how this would affect my life and if I thought I was ready.'

We have had a President over last eight years who has prided himself on snap judgments and I don't know if that has served us well. 

That's all for now my friends, see ya along the trail. 

September 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (54) | TrackBack (0)