Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Obama's Race to Lose; Pressure Points on Palin

September 30, 2008 8:53 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

One debate down, two presidential debates and one vice presidential to go, so let's take a look at the landscape.

By nearly all accounts, Obama won the first debate, even though it wasn't overwhelming, but it will serve to give Obama a slight bump in the polls (which it already has) and solidify his single digit lead.   

Since the debate, Obama is ahead pretty consistently by four to six points.  And this lead is significant for a couple reasons.

First, as I have written previously, the equilibrium of this race seems to be Obama with a slight lead and this will soon begin to lock in.  And with early voting starting soon in some states, every day Obama holds a lead means votes in the can.

Second, as best I can tell, no one running for president since 1976 who has held a consistent lead after the first debate has ever lost.  Strange things can happen, but McCain will have to surprise many if he comes back at this point.

So what happens next?

All the pressure is on Sarah Palin for the vice presidential  debate.  She goes in with many voters concerned about her answers to media questions over the last week or so.  A significant number of Americans do not believe she is qualified to be president.  And concern and infighting is beginning to surface among Republicans about her performance.

In fact, many Republicans are saying the problem is that the McCain campaign needs to "let Palin be Palin".   (Hmmm, I remember well many folks saying that about Bush after some mistakes in his campaigns, and thinking, well, sometimes we didn't want Bush to be Bush.)

This kind of statement by Republicans encourages me to add another rule to some rules I have come up with which are tell-tale signs a campaign is in trouble.

Rule One: When a campaign starts attacking the media, things aren't going well.

Rule Two: When a campaign says the polls are wrong, things aren't very good. 

Rule Three: When a campaign says "the only poll that counts is the one on election day" usually means a campaign is about to lose.

Now we could probably add a new one: when partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course.

What will McCain and Palin do at this point?  My guess is the campaign will encourage Palin to make some off the wall accusations at the debate in order to get under Biden's skin, and hope he makes a mistake by engaging her too passionately.

Or maybe McCain will fly to Afghanistan and look for Osama Bin Laden himself.  You just never know.

At this point, this race is Obama's to lose, and absent a significant mistake it will be tough for McCain to win.  McCain's destiny is no longer in his hands.  Though in a strange election, strange things can happen.

September 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (252)

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From your keyboard to God's ear....

Posted by: Sevres Blue | Sep 30, 2008 9:11:50 AM

Does anyone know when Sarah said "In Alaska, many people are depressed during the cold winters. That's experience I have that our opponents don't. I think Prosac works well for many." Surely she is not that clueless.

Posted by: jennylynn | Sep 30, 2008 9:14:04 AM

Sorry I got cut and paste happy earlier. This is the whole quote
When asked about the potential for a nationwide depression, Palin responded, "In Alaska, many people are depressed during the cold winters. That's experience I have that our opponents don't. I think Prosac works well for many." Shameful please oh please say you are kidding on this.

Posted by: jennylynn | Sep 30, 2008 9:16:30 AM

95 Democrats over 60% voted against the bail-out---Obama has done NOTHING to bring his party together. Obama has text messaged, phone in his thoughts to Paulson and Nancy Pelosi. Obama does not care in the least about this crisis except that it is benefiting him now...so he doesn't care. The point is to win for Obama and if American's get tossed under the bus its okay, that is his style.

Posted by: Ann | Sep 30, 2008 9:17:35 AM

Ann - Horse Hocky.

Posted by: jennylynn | Sep 30, 2008 9:23:52 AM

I believe Obama has already won the presidential race. If you look back in History, whomever leads from mid September to early October wins the presidency. Gore started losing ground by late September to Bush. Kerry lost the race by late August to Bush.

The time for McCain to make a run has long passed.

Posted by: Vanessa | Sep 30, 2008 9:25:35 AM

Who Cares. He can not fix this economy.

There will be no bailout for rich elites, and he will inherit a depression.

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 9:25:42 AM

At this point we all know that Palin is not fit to be president, as much as we may not like to hear this is true, in contrast Sen. Obama showed that hey can hold his own and is very capable. In regards to Biden well he may be the most qualify to be president his knowledge in foreign policy is rated best to none. Palin may be coached to do better and I suspect she will do a lot better in the up-coming event but it does not mean that she can errase the fact that when she is on her own she does not have a clue. As a moderate republican I will put party aside and cast my vote for Sen. Obama

Posted by: Mark-PA | Sep 30, 2008 9:29:17 AM

The media is so slanted towards Obama
at this time. The campaign is not about
the men but about the PR effectiveness.
For Obama to put out the ad that
Mc Cain doesn't look at Black People.......and for the media to air it
says alot about who we should vote for.
Mc Cain for President.

Posted by: peg | Sep 30, 2008 9:30:05 AM

I realy belive that the reason McCain has lost so much ground is because he choose Palin out of spite and hes has taken to many positions and none of them have proven to work. Every day he gets in a bigger hole. Palin may peform better in the up coming debate but it does not make her fit to lead this nation. Obama/Biden is the best team this time around. I agree as an independent voter I dont like what I see with McCain errotic actions. McCain has made himself scary and Palin scarier.

Posted by: Barbra C Collins | Sep 30, 2008 9:35:21 AM

Does anyone know when Sarah said "In Alaska, many people are depressed during the cold winters. That's experience I have that our opponents don't. I think Prosac works well for many." Surely she is not that clueless.
-----------------
Jenny,

I wrote that earlier this morning. It was just a joke. Sorry for the confusion.

Only with Sarah Palin could that possibly be considered real. Too funny!

Posted by: Funny Stuff | Sep 30, 2008 9:39:42 AM

Obama will win and be impeached AND removed from office within his first year. Joe Biden will serve the rest of
his term and not run for office in 2012.
Leaving the window open for Hillary Clinton.

So what?

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 9:39:56 AM

I feel sorry for the people of Alaska. They got to be feeling really embarrassed about now, having elected palin as the govenor of that Great state.

Posted by: pt | Sep 30, 2008 9:40:02 AM

Peg wrote:


The media is so slanted towards Obama
at this time. The campaign is not about
the men but about the PR effectiveness.
For Obama to put out the ad that
Mc Cain doesn't look at Black People.......and for the media to air it
says alot about who we should vote for.
Mc Cain for President.

----------------------------------


Peg,

This is the reason McCain is loosing big time because the lies that has come out of his camp are just enormous to sday the least. Here you go again lying. When someone lies its very hard to look someone square in the Eye. McCain looked angry, out of touch with the reality of America, the fact is he lost the debate. Thats a fact not a made up-lie. There is no such ad, you are lying. Shamefull!!! Lets not forget Barack is as white as hes is brown. Peg instead of preaching hatred go out and speak about peace, love, fairnes..Thats a true christain. Remeber dont lie or you will go to hell.


Posted by: Nancy | Sep 30, 2008 9:41:52 AM

bologne

the media for the first time in 8 years is finally trying not letting republican spin replace reporting.

same tactic as the last 8 years calling the media elites and liberal to hide all the wrong on the republican side.

we got a trillion dollar war

and trillion dollar mess on wall street

and lost 8 years on new energy alternatives

and watched as our allies slowly stopped having the support of their people's toward us...

abd the list goes on of how you people still saying the same thing about the media...

are still trying to destroy our country.

Posted by: dl | Sep 30, 2008 9:42:18 AM

95 Democrats over 60% voted against the bail-out---Obama has done NOTHING to bring his party together.
---------------------------
You may want to look again before you start spewing; 2/3 of Dems voted FOR the buy out.

2/3 of Republicans voted against it.

So, one more time, who has done nothing to bring his party together?

Posted by: Yet another of the misinformed | Sep 30, 2008 9:42:25 AM

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 9:44:22 AM

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 9:45:17 AM

Wow!!! Looks to me that McCain is just not undestanding the economy. first he suspend his campaing to ge the 700B done...Well nothing happens..Then he said well I wont debate, next thing you now he shows up and looses. Then he said that he was able to get allthe republican players in line to make sure they vote for the bill and guess what??They dont vote and the bill falls and the stock market plunged to record low!!!!! Now ask yourself is this true leadership!!! NOT. I am a proud republican and proud supporter of Barack Obama. Lets hope we republicans can get our act together for 2012.

Posted by: Jay | Sep 30, 2008 9:47:34 AM

I agree with JAY. MCCAIN/PALIN a disaster team.

Posted by: Milt | Sep 30, 2008 9:49:29 AM

HP Boston

you may want to ask yourself

what does a millionaire with seven houses and 13 cars...who didn't earn any of them...

and who has never had to know what a student loan application looks like never mind worry about balancing a mortgage payment with food and healthcare...

do?

because as we have seen when he is surrounded by deregulation lobbyists and his hawkish attitude

we see what he does...

He watches with his friends as they drive a trillion dollars out the window...

McCain Keating S&L and deregulation a trillion dollars.

Mccain Bush Iraq War a
trillion dollars.

Mccain Gramm, Black, Davis 23 etc.'s
deregualtion again ugh....a
trillion dollars.

How many trillions does a millionaire whose wife owns 7 houses and 13 cars from the money she inherited from her Daddy...

does he have to be involved directly with losing before we say

uh...this guy should move to Alaska with his moron counterpart.

Posted by: dl | Sep 30, 2008 9:50:31 AM

HILLARY SAID IT LOUD AND CLEAR!!!NO WAY NO HOW NO MCCAIN/PALIN


Posted by: A HUGE HILLARY SUPPORTER | Sep 30, 2008 9:50:43 AM

Chosing Palin was nothing but a stunt. Just like maverick's "campaign suspension".

Even Karl Rove said Palin was not chosen based on ability or knowledge.

They just gave Palin a sarcastic speech to read, put a waving flag behind her, and the pubs thought she was real.

I swear the GOP lemmings are the most gullible lot in America. They gave us Bush twice by falling for the same BS.

Did no one else see this coming? You can fake it for a few days, but not for two months. This is the person who is running for VICE PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES of AMERICA!

Posted by: No surprise | Sep 30, 2008 9:51:05 AM

What do businesses do when their taxes are raised in this country?

They move their business to a country with less tax.

Let Obama become president, so that all of this supporters will have to move to a foreign country to keep their jobs.

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 9:56:10 AM

The palin bounce can be seen clearly. It is now headed straight down...

Posted by: pt | Sep 30, 2008 9:56:49 AM

Angelo, Um what? you obviously like Hillary but doubt Obama will get impeached...would like to see legal action against Cheney though, he has undermined the Constitution at every opportunity. Rumsfield should be up their as well, no way he didn't no what was happening in those prisons. & Peg I assume your talking about that Rush Limbaugh ad? yea it is pretty bad but I don't think either candidate (McCain Or Obama) really have much to do with the attack ads, thats left to the campaign. You really think McCain felt Obama wanted to teach Sex Ed to PreSchoolers? I really don't think he did. But with politics before you can make change you have to be in a position to carry out change. Sad but true. Both sides are responsible for this economic mess both had time controlling the Congress & neither did anything. Now neither wants to be seen as to be wholly responsible for the bill (thats why the democrats didn't carry the bill themselves). Both sides want to be reelected & a bipartisan deal would take away sole responsiblity. Dems agreed to get 120-140 votes, Rep 70-100. Thats where it fell down. It will get done but there going to be some pain before it does! We will bounce back stronger we always do.

Posted by: stonerscum | Sep 30, 2008 9:57:08 AM

Ann: Are you illiterate,innumerate, or just plain stupid?

Nearly two-thirds of Democrats voted FOR the bailout; two-thirds of Republicans voted no.

1) Learn to do basic math. 2) Read stories carefully before commenting. 3) Grow a brain.

Posted by: Leah | Sep 30, 2008 10:00:55 AM

mr scum:

what do you think Obama is going to do with a failed economy?

Raise taxes on businesses and the wealthy, which translates to hirer prices to you and me, you know the 95% that will get that wopping $1000.

Which will be gone just pay the hirer prices.

Obama will will and be impeached AND removed from office within one year.

So what?

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:00:58 AM

Obama/Biden will lead this country in the right direction and he was right not
to Bailout wall Street this prove he is
a people President Lets bailout the ones
who is losing home and jobs this is the
best solution for this Country, we did
not put Wall Street in this position the
Greedy CEO'S put wall street in this
position.OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT!

Posted by: Ervin Fox | Sep 30, 2008 10:01:03 AM

HP Boston,

First, get a job or find something constructive to do because you are spending way too much time spewing hate and anger. You need to open your eyes and grow up...

Second, get used to hearing President Obama because he will win so get over it.

Posted by: The Truth | Sep 30, 2008 10:03:09 AM

Angelo, even if that did all happen, its not an impeachable offence. Look up constitutional law.

Posted by: Stonerscum | Sep 30, 2008 10:03:25 AM

THE seeds of today's financial meltdown lie in the Commu nity Reinvestment Act - a law passed in 1977 and made riskier by unwise amendments and regulatory rulings in later decades.

CRA was meant to encourage banks to make loans to high-risk borrowers, often minorities living in unstable neighborhoods. That has provided an opening to radical groups like ACORN (the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) to abuse the law by forcing banks to make hundreds of millions of dollars in "subprime" loans to often uncreditworthy poor and minority customers.

Any bank that wants to expand or merge with another has to show it has complied with CRA - and approval can be held up by complaints filed by groups like ACORN.

In fact, intimidation tactics, public charges of racism and threats to use CRA to block business expansion have enabled ACORN to extract hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and contributions from America's financial institutions.

Banks already overexposed by these shaky loans were pushed still further in the wrong direction when government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began buying up their bad loans and offering them for sale on world markets.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:03:54 AM

Unfortunately, there is no guarantee (even though he is clearly the better of the 2 candidates.) Obama's race remains a huge elephant in the elections. I will believe he wins only after it happens. Sadly, fear of difference still pervades many communities this country.

Posted by: Whatever | Sep 30, 2008 10:05:38 AM

Um,Ann. The bill didn't pass because of the republican vote. And Obama isn't president...yet. He dosen't run congress. And if republicans kept up their 70% of the bargain, it would have passed. Where was McCain?

Posted by: hannah | Sep 30, 2008 10:07:22 AM

mr scum:

when Obama can't produce everything he is promising to us "middle class" folk, he will have all americans petitioning for his removal of office.

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:08:47 AM

HP,

Again your lack of credibilty shows.

The banking collapse had absolutely nothing to do with community organizers. It's another rediculous analogy. But as always, you have to stretch to try and find something negative to say about Obama.

In 2004, the SEC loosened regulations requiring that banks hold $1 for every $12 loaned and changed it to $1 for every $40 dollars loaned. They allowed only five banks to change their holdings-to-loan ratio and guess which five just collapsed?

Changing the debt ratios made it so that even a small number of defaults would collapse the system. The fall in the housing market made the collape inevitable. Thank you deregulators! (McSame)

The other issue stems from the way banks traded insured loans. In simplistic terms, they were all just insuring each other. So when one fell, they all fell. The changes in this policy began in the mid '90's.

So give up trying to blame Barack. Anyone with any sense knows it had nothing to do with him. You CAN blame the stauch supporters of deregulation. This would include John McCain and friends.

Posted by: No surprise | Sep 30, 2008 10:11:05 AM

HP Boston wrote:

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.


WHAT?????

Posted by: ChrisD | Sep 30, 2008 10:12:13 AM

Anyone who wins and it will probably be Obama, the are going to have to solve a lot of problems.

Raising anyone's taxes are not going solve the problem. Companies will just move their business to another country.
Say goodbye to your job, say goodbye to the taxpayers who had those jobs.

Barrack Obama, a one year term.

And then what will we have, and old, white man, as president.

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:12:28 AM

Angelo read the Constitution! Impeachment can only can in cases of: "Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."
The entire planet could hate him & it still wouldn't give grounds for impeachment! If it was down to popularity Bush would have been gone ages ago. You can keep saying & wishing it doesn't make the law change

Posted by: stonerscum | Sep 30, 2008 10:12:28 AM

I think bringing socialism/communism to a the United States of America is treason.

Good Luck and Goodbye!

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:15:15 AM

Ah true colours Angelo, your an idiot

Posted by: Stonerscum | Sep 30, 2008 10:24:47 AM

Fannie and Freddie acted in response to Clinton administration pressure to boost homeownership rates among minorities and the poor. However compassionate the motive, the result of this systematic disregard for normal credit standards has been financial disaster.

ONE key pioneer of ACORN's subprime-loan shakedown racket was Madeline Talbott - an activist with extensive ties to Barack Obama. She was also in on the ground floor of the disastrous turn in Fannie Mae's mortgage policies.

Long the director of Chicago ACORN, Talbott is a specialist in "direct action" - organizers' term for their militant tactics of intimidation and disruption. Perhaps her most famous stunt was leading a group of ACORN protesters breaking into a meeting of the Chicago City Council to push for a "living wage" law, shouting in defiance as she was arrested for mob action and disorderly conduct. But her real legacy may be her drive to push banks into making risky mortgage loans.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:26:25 AM

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:27:44 AM

WHAT?????

Posted by: ChrisD | Sep 30, 2008 10:12:13 AM

--------------
Kurtz / NY TIMES

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:29:11 AM

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:30:07 AM

O'S DANGEROUS PALS
BARACK'S 'ORGANIZER' BUDS PUSHED FOR BAD MORTGAGES
Comment By STANLEY KURTZ
NEW YORK TIMES

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:32:27 AM

If Obama does win, he can't do half (or even less) of the things he's "proposed" - from education, to tax cuts, to healthcare, etc - it all gets squeezed by financials. So what will he drop - or does it not matter?

Posted by: lnk | Sep 30, 2008 10:33:19 AM

The sad thing is how we hold on to our fears inspite of the truth. It's like sitting in the Dr.'s office getting the news you have only 2-3 weeks to live. Of course there is a time of unbelief, but at some point you come to grips with it all. We have gotten the diagnosis, a trillion dollar war, trillion dollar debt, unqualified candidates and superheroes leaping from all buildings (I am going to suspend my campaign), yet we just can't accept it. But I am fair, as long as when you get behind that curtain on November 4th and vote American, vote this ain't right and I won't take it no more, it's ok with me. OBAMA 2008!!

Posted by: SD | Sep 30, 2008 10:34:24 AM

How could a man come out of no where, eliminate all other democratic candidates (years and years of experienced candidates), take down the Clintons, beat a VET on his on turf (the debate), raise millions and millions of dollars, bring blacks, whites, asians, mexicans, indians, and countries abroad together, accomplish so much in less than 2 years.. I will tell you how.. Read Judges 4, starting at verse 3 and you have your answer... The bible speaks, and we all know The Word of God can not/will not fail.... Hashalabahondaha!!!!!!!!!!!! Obama/Biden08 and again 2012!!!

Posted by: Obamaall theway | Sep 30, 2008 10:37:24 AM

A lot of people got really angry when Obama said they were bitter, and angry.. Now all I hear in the media is how angry and bitter people are.. Why is it when he said it, it was so terrible, but now it's ok for everyone to be bitter and angry... It's ironic how a lot of the things he's said in the past are actually coming to pass. I need someone in the media to explain why it's ok now to acknowledge people are angry, but it wasn't when the Senator said it...

Posted by: Obamaall theway | Sep 30, 2008 10:42:21 AM

A lot of people got really angry when Obama said they were bitter, and angry.. Now all I hear in the media is how angry and bitter people are.. Why is it when he said it, it was so terrible, but now it's ok for everyone to be bitter and angry... It's ironic how a lot of the things he's said in the past are actually coming to pass. I need someone in the media to explain why it's ok now to acknowledge people are angry, but it wasn't when the Senator said it...

Posted by: Obamaall theway | Sep 30, 2008 10:43:58 AM

People KNOW that Obama (and democrats) played a major part in this current crisis, and how the democrats wanted 20% of the BAILOUT?RESCUE money to go to organizations like ACORN….Obama THE COMMUNITY ORGANIZER!!!

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:45:53 AM


HP Boston,

You have shown your ignorance. First I have worked in community organizations for years and you have it all wrong. Not that it matters you don't seem like the type to go out in your community and do anything anyway so I will not go into how uplifting the community and getting low-income people to work benefits the economy.

Secondly it was not just low income people that got into houses they could not afford. Houses in wealthy areas are being foreclosed on as well. No low income person was getting a 250,000.00 loan anywhere in this country. It was the upper middle class whites that were not asked to verify their income, and therefore contributed to the mess as well, as the low-income.

This mess is the result of 8 years of Bush 6 years of a Republican Congress and 1.5 years of a Democratic Congress not having the guts to stand up against them, along with faulty bank loans. But of course it always comes back to Black for some. Bush is the true Teflon Don, accountability does not stick to him.

Posted by: Ashley | Sep 30, 2008 10:46:39 AM

Vaness, you might be right, but, remember the media seemed truly shocked when Kerry lost as did the Dems in general. They were convinced they'd win, as was Gore and the Dems back then too. Don't necesarily believe all the spin the media puts out there--it often actually helps the repubs as they feel mre compelled to make their vote count and it suppresses the Dems with some thinking they don't need to bother to vote as its a shoe in.

Posted by: Megan | Sep 30, 2008 10:47:25 AM

Tax Cuts

May 11, 2006 -- The U.S. Senate passes a $70 billion tax cut package by a vote of 55-44. The package includes a two-year extension of lower rates for dividends and capital gains and a one-year Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) exemption for many middle-income taxpayers.

McCain: Yea
Obama: Nay

Posted by: patty | Sep 30, 2008 10:49:14 AM

People KNOW that Obama (and democrats) played a major part in this current crisis, and how the democrats wanted 20% of the BAILOUT?RESCUE money to go to organizations like ACORN….Obama THE COMMUNITY ORGANIZER!!!


Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:51:11 AM

Obama;s race to lose - Not Exactly
The press would love you to believe that but the statement is untrue. ABC = Any Black Candidate but not Hillary or palin or any other woman, Consider this

1.) Selma got me born...
NOT EXACTLY: your parents felt safe enough to have you in 1961 - Selma had no effect on your birth, as Selma was in 1965.

(Google 'Obama Selma' for his full March 4, 2007 speech and articles about its various untruths.)

2.) My Father Was A Goat Herder . . .

NOT EXACTLY: he was a privileged, well educated youth, who went on to work with the Kenyan Government.

3.) My Father Was A Proud Freedom Fighter . .

NOT EXACTLY: he was part of one of the most corrupt and violent governments Kenya has ever had.

4.) My Family Has Strong Ties To African Freedom . .

NOT EXACTLY: your cousin Raila Odinga has created mass violence in attempting to overturn a legitimate election in 2007, in Kenya. It is the first widespread violence in decades. The current government is pro-American but Odinga wants to overthrow it and establish Muslim Sharia law. Your half-brother, Abongo Obama, is Odinga's follower. You interrupted your New Hampshire campaigning to speak to Odinga on the phone. Check out the following link for verification of that and for more.

Obama's cousin Odinga in Kenya ran for president and tried to get Sharia Muslim law in place there. When Odinga lost the elections, his followers burned Christians' homes as well as men, women and children alive in a Christian church where they took refuge. Obama supported his cousin before the election process here started. (Google 'Obama and Odinga')

5.) My Grandmother Has Always Been A Christian . . ..

NOT EXACTLY: she does her daily Salat prayers at 5 AM according to her own interviews. Christianity would not have supported her being one of 14 wives to 1 man.

6.) My Name is African Swahili . .

NOT EXACTLY: your name is Arabic and 'Baraka' (from which Barack came) means 'blessed' in that language. Hussein is also Arabic and so is Obama.

Barack Hussein Obama is not half black. If elected, he would be the first Arab-American President, not the first black President. Barack Hussein Obama is 50% Caucasian from his mother's side, and 43.75% Arabic and 6.25% African Negro from his father's side.

While Barack Hussein Obama's father was from Kenya, his father's family were mainly Arabs.. Barack Hussein Obama's father was only 12.5% African Negro and 87.5% Arab (his father's birth certificate states he's Arab, not African Negro). From....and for more....go to.....
http://www.arcadeathome.com/newsboy.phtml?Barack_Hussein_Obama_-_Arab-American,_only_ 6.25% 25_African

7.) I Never Practiced Islam . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you practiced it daily at school, where you were registered as a Muslim and kept that faith for 31 years -- until you changed the year before running for public office.

4-3-08 Article 'Obama was 'quite religious in Islam''
http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=60559

8.) My School In Indonesia Was Christian . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you were registered as Muslim there and got in trouble in Koranic Studies for making faces (check your own book).

February 28, 2008. Kristoff from the New York Times a year ago: 'Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that seemed delightfully uncalculated (it'll give Alabama voters heart attacks), Mr. Obama described the call to prayer as 'one of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset.' This is just one example of what Pamela is talking about when she says 'Obama's narrative is being altered, enhanced and manipulated to whitewash troubling facts.'

9.) I Was Fluent In Indonesian . . .

NOT EXACTLY: not one former teacher says you could speak the language.

10.) Because I lived In Indonesia, I have more foreign experience . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you were there from the ages of 6 to 10, and could not speak the language.

11.) I Am Stronger On Foreign Affairs . . .

NOT EXACTLY: except for Africa and the Middle East, you have never been anywhere else on the planet and have NO experience with our closest allies.

12.) I Blame My Early Drug Use On Ethnic Confusion . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you were quite content in high school to be Barry Obama, no mention of Kenya and no mention of struggle to identify. Your classmates said you were just fine.

13.) An Ebony Article Moved Me To Run For Office . . .

NOT EXACTLY: Ebony has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn't, and never did, exist.

14.) A Life Magazine Article Changed My Outlook On Life . .

NOT EXACTLY: Life has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn't, and never did, exist.

15.) I Won't Run On A National Ticket In '08 . . .

NOT EXACTLY: here you are, despite saying live on TV that you would not have enough experience by then -- and you are all about 'having experience first '.

16.) Voting 'Present' is Common In Illinois Senate . . .

NOT EXACTLY: common for YOU, but not many others have 130 NO VOTES.

17.) I Was A Professor Of Law . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.

18.) I Was A Constitutional Lawyer . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.

19.) Without Me, There Would Be No Ethics Bill . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you didn't write it, introduce it, change it, or create it.

20.) The Ethics Bill Was Hard To Pass . . .

NOT EXACTLY: it took just 14 days from start to finish.

21.) I Wrote A Tough Nuclear Bill . . .

NOT EXACTLY: your bill was rejected by your own party for its pandering and lack of all regulation -- mainly because of your Nuclear donor, Exelon, from which David Axelrod came.

22.) I Have Released My State Records . . .

NOT EXACTLY: as of March, 2008, state bills you sponsored or voted for have yet to be released, including all the special interests pork hidden within.

23.) I Took On The Asbestos Altgeld Gardens Mess . . ..

NOT EXACTLY: you were part of a large group of people who remedied Altgeld Gardens. You failed to mention anyone else but yourself in your books.

24.) My Economics Bill Will Help America . .

NOT EXACTLY: your 111 economic policies were combined into a proposal which lost 99-0, and even YOU voted against your own bill.

25.) I Have Been A Bold Leader In Illinois . .

NOT EXACTLY: even your own supporters characterize your actions as careful rather than bold.

26.) I Passed 26 Of My Own Bills In One Year . .

NOT EXACTLY: they were not YOUR bills, but rather handed to you after their creation by a fellow Senator, 'to assist you in a future bid for higher office'.

27.) No One on my campaign contacted Canada about NAFTA . . .

NOT EXACTLY: the Canadian Government issued the names and a memo of the conversation your campaign had with them.

28.) I Am Tough On Terrorism . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you missed the Iran Resolution vote on terrorism and your good friend Ali Abunimah supports the destruction off Israel.

29.) I passed 900 Bills in the State Senate . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you passed 26, most of which you didn't write.

30.) I Believe In Fairness, Not Tactics . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you used tactics to eliminate Alice Palmer from running against you.

31.) I Don't Take PAC Money . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you take loads of it.

32.) I don't Have Lobbyists . . .

NOT EXACTLY: you have 47 lobbyists on staff, and counting.

33.) My Campaign Had Nothing To Do With The 1984 Ad . .

NOT EXACTLY: your own campaign worker made the ad on his Apple in one afternoon.

34.) I Have Always Been Against Iraq . .

NOT EXACTLY: you weren't in office to vote against it AND you have voted to fund it every single time.




Posted by: Tanya Eddy | Sep 30, 2008 10:52:04 AM

"By nearly all accounts, Obama won the first debate"

except for real people accounts like the drudge poll. The bailout collapse shows how far ou tof touch the Obama loving media is with America.

Posted by: geevill | Sep 30, 2008 10:53:47 AM

"I need someone in the media to explain why it's ok now to acknowledge people are angry, but it wasn't when the Senator said it... "
-'Obama all the way,' you've got it the wrong way aroudn adn aren't comaring the same things. It wasn't that Obama stated people were angry that got him in hot water, but his follow-up that 'therefore' people cling to guns and religion... as if that is the only reason people have stock in those thigns. That was insulting and completly ignorant of how this country was founded, etc, etc.

Sure, people are angry now (remaining so), as rightly they should be, but not being the impetus for what Obama stated.

Posted by: Megan | Sep 30, 2008 10:54:07 AM

McCain put his campaign on hold and went back to DC to do his job. Obama stayed in Florida and crammed for the debate. Looks like we have one candidate who puts the country first and one who puts his own political career first. Sometimes Obama votes “present”. Sometimes he isn’t able to vote that way. You folks in Illinois need to take note and remember that when Obama is running for re-election.

Posted by: Oonogil | Sep 30, 2008 10:55:02 AM

On the Amendment S.Amdt. 4170 to S.Con.Res. 70 (No short title on file)
To protect families, family farms and small businesses by extending the income tax rate structure, raising the death tax exemption to $5 million and reducing the maximum death tax rate to no more than 35%; to keep education affordable by extending the college tuition deduction; and to protect senior citizens from higher taxes on their retirement income, maintain U.S. financial market competitiveness, and promote economic growth by extending the lower tax rates on dividends and capital gains.

obama nay
McCain yea

Posted by: tina | Sep 30, 2008 11:06:08 AM

Tanya, teh WND link is most intersting of all as it quotes some pretty damning stuff Obama himself worte in his books. Very interesting! I woul say he;s mastered spin quite well, wouldn't you?

It's like how he talked about seeing one America, not red and blue, and yet he has never really reached across the aisle but has voted consistenyl liberal and DNC each time. Compare that to McCain who has often voted against his party--so if his is only 10% change, it's still 10 times more than O's to his liberal base! So much for reaching across teh aisle! He'll say whatever but his words don't match his actuaul experience.

Posted by: Megan | Sep 30, 2008 11:07:01 AM

Voters are angry that Congress especially liberals want to bailout rich wall street supporters on the backs of the middle America.Pelosi and Obama don't care about gas prices. Us "Bitter" Americans live in the same house paying off our mortgages. We weren't given an affirmative action loan like ACORN forced banks to give.

Thanks to McCain for preventing this bailout from being rushed through while obama did nothing so his ACORN ballot fraud cronies could get billions of our money. and thanks to those who voted against it.

What about protecting us from credit card "late fees"? How about bailing out Main Street not Wall Street. Goldman Sachs gave us Paulson and Jon Corzine. why should we bail them out?

Posted by: geevill | Sep 30, 2008 11:07:41 AM

Sara palin is a shame to her own party, a woman who cannot control her own family let alone the entire US whiles girls are struggling to enter UNI'S her daugther is pregrant at the age of 17. good for REPUBLICANS and maccain.

Posted by: ZOE | Sep 30, 2008 11:09:51 AM

I think Peg watched last night's episode of Jimmel Kimmel when he show the spoof of a campaign ad by Obama. That is what is missing in this current campaign. People are not paying attention!!! WOW!!

Posted by: Astonished!!! | Sep 30, 2008 11:15:30 AM

It's sad how people would rather vote on race than the REAL ISSUES! I am only 14 and I care more about the campaign than people who are older than I am.


GO OBAMA!!

Posted by: Olga | Sep 30, 2008 11:15:33 AM

Is everyone aware that Obama was a member of the left wing organization ACORN and that is where he did his community organizing? Is his campaign trying to keep this quiet?

Posted by: virginia | Sep 30, 2008 11:17:59 AM

RE: McCain put his campaign on hold.
Don't be ridiculous. His commercials ran, his V.P. was talking to the media, his campaign volunteers were still in full force and didn't even know about the "suspension". His call for "campaign suspension" was a campaign in itself.

Posted by: KCMich | Sep 30, 2008 11:20:00 AM

I think Peg watched last night's episode of Jimmy Kimmel when she referred to the ad about McCain not being able to look at black people.

WOW!!! That is one of the major proplems this election season.....there are some that cannot separate fact from fiction!!!

Posted by: Astonished!!! | Sep 30, 2008 11:22:42 AM

Olga, I commend you for being involved at such a young age--if only more teens cared abou the issues too.

Posted by: Megan | Sep 30, 2008 11:25:26 AM

I like that "Or maybe McCain will fly to Afghanistan and look for Osama Bin Laden himself. You just never know."

For McCain one can never tell!

Posted by: leighg1 | Sep 30, 2008 11:28:55 AM

Mark-PA,

You are a Republican who thinks with his head. You are making the right move.
More Republicans should think like you. We must have intelligent people (Obama/Biden) and we must not support McCain/Palin, why? Because we all have watched her (K. Couric and C. Gibson). Nothing personal, but I cannot support McCain for his lack of judgment (when he picked Palin) and cannot support Palin because she is not prepared to be VP nor president of the United States.

Posted by: Patty | Sep 30, 2008 11:30:59 AM

Olga doesn't know what communism is. When her mother's salary is redistributed to someone who makes less, she will understand.

Posted by: Joe | Sep 30, 2008 11:31:12 AM

Dear Oonogil, somehow it must have escaped your attention that McCain was just disturbing the process on Capitol Hill on Thursday by trying to politicize the fragile process. In the meeting he spoke only one sentence all in the end. I guess he could have done this contribution by phone which I think would have been a more practical solution.
And as to his noble reasons to put the country first: he said in his 2002 memoir, “Worth the Fighting For”: "I didn’t decide to run for president to start a national crusade for the political reforms I believed in or to run a campaign as if it were some grand act of patriotism. In truth, I wanted to be president because it had become my ambition to be president. . . . In truth, I’d had the ambition for a long time.”)

Posted by: Verily | Sep 30, 2008 11:31:57 AM

Ann: 95 Democrats over 60% voted against the bail-out---Obama has done NOTHING to bring his party together. Obama has text messaged, phone in his thoughts to Paulson and Nancy Pelosi. Obama does not care in the least about this crisis except that it is benefiting him now...so he doesn't care. The point is to win for Obama and if American's get tossed under the bus its okay, that is his style.
____________________________________

You are entitled to your own opinion but not your own facts. The fact is that 60% of Democrats voted for it and 67% of Republicans voted against it. Furthermore, Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-GA) said ( on Morning Joe) that he asked Boehner 2 hours before the vote if he had the 100 votes he promised to get and Boehner said no. He said he was could get between 75 and 80 votes, and Clyburn said that he had some "cushion" so that they could pass the bill if he gets his 75. Boehner could only get 65 because Newt Gengrich had been calling House Republicans up for re-election and asked them to vote "No" on this. This was a failure of leadership on the part of the Republican Party. Nether Bush, nor, McCain, Boehner or Newt could get a majority of Repubs to go along with this. No one is in charge over there and that is why this bill failed. Facts are a stubborn thing.

Posted by: Wally | Sep 30, 2008 11:38:07 AM

On the Amendment S.Amdt. 1234 to S.Amdt. 1150 to S. 1348 (Comprehensive Immigration Reform Act of 2007)
To save American taxpayers up to $24 billion in the 10 years after passage of this Act, by preventing the earned income tax credit, which is, according to the Congressional Research Service, the largest anti-poverty entitlement program of the Federal Government, from being claimed by Y temporary workers or illegal aliens given status by this Act until they adjust to legal permanent resident status.

Obama nay
McCain yea

Posted by: sarah | Sep 30, 2008 11:40:23 AM

geevill, nobody likes this bailout. The problem is if nothing is done now to regulate the markets it may cost taxpayers way more. The whole collapse came about thanks to Republicans who wanted a free market where anything goes without any rules. And this is the one thing that happens on cost of the small man and the small woman! Now the same Republicans vote against the bailout who would at least bring some basic order in rebuilding the economy. But according to time.com: Federal authorities are going to keep doing whatever they can to keep the financial system from collapsing. Taxpayers will bear the risks and the costs of that, whether Congress votes to put them there or not. And it's possible - although nobody can know for sure - that this ad hoc approach will end up costing more than an up-front $700 billion bailout.

Posted by: Verily | Sep 30, 2008 11:45:07 AM