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Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Obama's Race to Lose; Pressure Points on Palin

September 30, 2008 8:53 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

One debate down, two presidential debates and one vice presidential to go, so let's take a look at the landscape.

By nearly all accounts, Obama won the first debate, even though it wasn't overwhelming, but it will serve to give Obama a slight bump in the polls (which it already has) and solidify his single digit lead.   

Since the debate, Obama is ahead pretty consistently by four to six points.  And this lead is significant for a couple reasons.

First, as I have written previously, the equilibrium of this race seems to be Obama with a slight lead and this will soon begin to lock in.  And with early voting starting soon in some states, every day Obama holds a lead means votes in the can.

Second, as best I can tell, no one running for president since 1976 who has held a consistent lead after the first debate has ever lost.  Strange things can happen, but McCain will have to surprise many if he comes back at this point.

So what happens next?

All the pressure is on Sarah Palin for the vice presidential  debate.  She goes in with many voters concerned about her answers to media questions over the last week or so.  A significant number of Americans do not believe she is qualified to be president.  And concern and infighting is beginning to surface among Republicans about her performance.

In fact, many Republicans are saying the problem is that the McCain campaign needs to "let Palin be Palin".   (Hmmm, I remember well many folks saying that about Bush after some mistakes in his campaigns, and thinking, well, sometimes we didn't want Bush to be Bush.)

This kind of statement by Republicans encourages me to add another rule to some rules I have come up with which are tell-tale signs a campaign is in trouble.

Rule One: When a campaign starts attacking the media, things aren't going well.

Rule Two: When a campaign says the polls are wrong, things aren't very good. 

Rule Three: When a campaign says "the only poll that counts is the one on election day" usually means a campaign is about to lose.

Now we could probably add a new one: when partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course.

What will McCain and Palin do at this point?  My guess is the campaign will encourage Palin to make some off the wall accusations at the debate in order to get under Biden's skin, and hope he makes a mistake by engaging her too passionately.

Or maybe McCain will fly to Afghanistan and look for Osama Bin Laden himself.  You just never know.

At this point, this race is Obama's to lose, and absent a significant mistake it will be tough for McCain to win.  McCain's destiny is no longer in his hands.  Though in a strange election, strange things can happen.

September 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (252)

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From your keyboard to God's ear....

Posted by: Sevres Blue | Sep 30, 2008 9:11:50 AM

Does anyone know when Sarah said "In Alaska, many people are depressed during the cold winters. That's experience I have that our opponents don't. I think Prosac works well for many." Surely she is not that clueless.

Posted by: jennylynn | Sep 30, 2008 9:14:04 AM

Sorry I got cut and paste happy earlier. This is the whole quote
When asked about the potential for a nationwide depression, Palin responded, "In Alaska, many people are depressed during the cold winters. That's experience I have that our opponents don't. I think Prosac works well for many." Shameful please oh please say you are kidding on this.

Posted by: jennylynn | Sep 30, 2008 9:16:30 AM

95 Democrats over 60% voted against the bail-out---Obama has done NOTHING to bring his party together. Obama has text messaged, phone in his thoughts to Paulson and Nancy Pelosi. Obama does not care in the least about this crisis except that it is benefiting him now...so he doesn't care. The point is to win for Obama and if American's get tossed under the bus its okay, that is his style.

Posted by: Ann | Sep 30, 2008 9:17:35 AM

Ann - Horse Hocky.

Posted by: jennylynn | Sep 30, 2008 9:23:52 AM

I believe Obama has already won the presidential race. If you look back in History, whomever leads from mid September to early October wins the presidency. Gore started losing ground by late September to Bush. Kerry lost the race by late August to Bush.

The time for McCain to make a run has long passed.

Posted by: Vanessa | Sep 30, 2008 9:25:35 AM

Who Cares. He can not fix this economy.

There will be no bailout for rich elites, and he will inherit a depression.

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 9:25:42 AM

At this point we all know that Palin is not fit to be president, as much as we may not like to hear this is true, in contrast Sen. Obama showed that hey can hold his own and is very capable. In regards to Biden well he may be the most qualify to be president his knowledge in foreign policy is rated best to none. Palin may be coached to do better and I suspect she will do a lot better in the up-coming event but it does not mean that she can errase the fact that when she is on her own she does not have a clue. As a moderate republican I will put party aside and cast my vote for Sen. Obama

Posted by: Mark-PA | Sep 30, 2008 9:29:17 AM

The media is so slanted towards Obama
at this time. The campaign is not about
the men but about the PR effectiveness.
For Obama to put out the ad that
Mc Cain doesn't look at Black People.......and for the media to air it
says alot about who we should vote for.
Mc Cain for President.

Posted by: peg | Sep 30, 2008 9:30:05 AM

I realy belive that the reason McCain has lost so much ground is because he choose Palin out of spite and hes has taken to many positions and none of them have proven to work. Every day he gets in a bigger hole. Palin may peform better in the up coming debate but it does not make her fit to lead this nation. Obama/Biden is the best team this time around. I agree as an independent voter I dont like what I see with McCain errotic actions. McCain has made himself scary and Palin scarier.

Posted by: Barbra C Collins | Sep 30, 2008 9:35:21 AM

Does anyone know when Sarah said "In Alaska, many people are depressed during the cold winters. That's experience I have that our opponents don't. I think Prosac works well for many." Surely she is not that clueless.
-----------------
Jenny,

I wrote that earlier this morning. It was just a joke. Sorry for the confusion.

Only with Sarah Palin could that possibly be considered real. Too funny!

Posted by: Funny Stuff | Sep 30, 2008 9:39:42 AM

Obama will win and be impeached AND removed from office within his first year. Joe Biden will serve the rest of
his term and not run for office in 2012.
Leaving the window open for Hillary Clinton.

So what?

Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 9:39:56 AM

I feel sorry for the people of Alaska. They got to be feeling really embarrassed about now, having elected palin as the govenor of that Great state.

Posted by: pt | Sep 30, 2008 9:40:02 AM

Peg wrote:


The media is so slanted towards Obama
at this time. The campaign is not about
the men but about the PR effectiveness.
For Obama to put out the ad that
Mc Cain doesn't look at Black People.......and for the media to air it
says alot about who we should vote for.
Mc Cain for President.

----------------------------------


Peg,

This is the reason McCain is loosing big time because the lies that has come out of his camp are just enormous to sday the least. Here you go again lying. When someone lies its very hard to look someone square in the Eye. McCain looked angry, out of touch with the reality of America, the fact is he lost the debate. Thats a fact not a made up-lie. There is no such ad, you are lying. Shamefull!!! Lets not forget Barack is as white as hes is brown. Peg instead of preaching hatred go out and speak about peace, love, fairnes..Thats a true christain. Remeber dont lie or you will go to hell.


Posted by: Nancy | Sep 30, 2008 9:41:52 AM

bologne

the media for the first time in 8 years is finally trying not letting republican spin replace reporting.

same tactic as the last 8 years calling the media elites and liberal to hide all the wrong on the republican side.

we got a trillion dollar war

and trillion dollar mess on wall street

and lost 8 years on new energy alternatives

and watched as our allies slowly stopped having the support of their people's toward us...

abd the list goes on of how you people still saying the same thing about the media...

are still trying to destroy our country.

Posted by: dl | Sep 30, 2008 9:42:18 AM

95 Democrats over 60% voted against the bail-out---Obama has done NOTHING to bring his party together.
---------------------------
You may want to look again before you start spewing; 2/3 of Dems voted FOR the buy out.

2/3 of Republicans voted against it.

So, one more time, who has done nothing to bring his party together?

Posted by: Yet another of the misinformed | Sep 30, 2008 9:42:25 AM

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 9:44:22 AM

WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.

In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.

In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 9:45:17 AM

Wow!!! Looks to me that McCain is just not undestanding the economy. first he suspend his campaing to ge the 700B done...Well nothing happens..Then he said well I wont debate, next thing you now he shows up and looses. Then he said that he was able to get allthe republican players in line to make sure they vote for the bill and guess what??They dont vote and the bill falls and the stock market plunged to record low!!!!! Now ask yourself is this true leadership!!! NOT. I am a proud republican and proud supporter of Barack Obama. Lets hope we republicans can get our act together for 2012.

Posted by: Jay | Sep 30, 2008 9:47:34 AM

I agree with JAY. MCCAIN/PALIN a disaster team.

Posted by: Milt | Sep 30, 2008 9:49:29 AM

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