Matthew Dowd
Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.
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Obama's Race to Lose; Pressure Points on Palin
September 30, 2008 8:53 AM
Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor
One debate down, two presidential debates and one vice presidential to go, so let's take a look at the landscape.
By nearly all accounts, Obama won the first debate, even though it wasn't overwhelming, but it will serve to give Obama a slight bump in the polls (which it already has) and solidify his single digit lead.
Since the debate, Obama is ahead pretty consistently by four to six points. And this lead is significant for a couple reasons.
First, as I have written previously, the equilibrium of this race seems to be Obama with a slight lead and this will soon begin to lock in. And with early voting starting soon in some states, every day Obama holds a lead means votes in the can.
Second, as best I can tell, no one running for president since 1976 who has held a consistent lead after the first debate has ever lost. Strange things can happen, but McCain will have to surprise many if he comes back at this point.
So what happens next?
All the pressure is on Sarah Palin for the vice presidential debate. She goes in with many voters concerned about her answers to media questions over the last week or so. A significant number of Americans do not believe she is qualified to be president. And concern and infighting is beginning to surface among Republicans about her performance.
In fact, many Republicans are saying the problem is that the McCain campaign needs to "let Palin be Palin". (Hmmm, I remember well many folks saying that about Bush after some mistakes in his campaigns, and thinking, well, sometimes we didn't want Bush to be Bush.)
This kind of statement by Republicans encourages me to add another rule to some rules I have come up with which are tell-tale signs a campaign is in trouble.
Rule One: When a campaign starts attacking the media, things aren't going well.
Rule Two: When a campaign says the polls are wrong, things aren't very good.
Rule Three: When a campaign says "the only poll that counts is the one on election day" usually means a campaign is about to lose.
Now we could probably add a new one: when partisans start saying let the candidate be the candidate, it means things are off course.
What will McCain and Palin do at this point? My guess is the campaign will encourage Palin to make some off the wall accusations at the debate in order to get under Biden's skin, and hope he makes a mistake by engaging her too passionately.
Or maybe McCain will fly to Afghanistan and look for Osama Bin Laden himself. You just never know.
At this point, this race is Obama's to lose, and absent a significant mistake it will be tough for McCain to win. McCain's destiny is no longer in his hands. Though in a strange election, strange things can happen.
September 30, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (252)
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HP Boston
you may want to ask yourself
what does a millionaire with seven houses and 13 cars...who didn't earn any of them...
and who has never had to know what a student loan application looks like never mind worry about balancing a mortgage payment with food and healthcare...
do?
because as we have seen when he is surrounded by deregulation lobbyists and his hawkish attitude
we see what he does...
He watches with his friends as they drive a trillion dollars out the window...
McCain Keating S&L and deregulation a trillion dollars.
Mccain Bush Iraq War a
trillion dollars.
Mccain Gramm, Black, Davis 23 etc.'s
deregualtion again ugh....a
trillion dollars.
How many trillions does a millionaire whose wife owns 7 houses and 13 cars from the money she inherited from her Daddy...
does he have to be involved directly with losing before we say
uh...this guy should move to Alaska with his moron counterpart.
Posted by: dl | Sep 30, 2008 9:50:31 AM
HILLARY SAID IT LOUD AND CLEAR!!!NO WAY NO HOW NO MCCAIN/PALIN
Posted by: A HUGE HILLARY SUPPORTER | Sep 30, 2008 9:50:43 AM
Chosing Palin was nothing but a stunt. Just like maverick's "campaign suspension".
Even Karl Rove said Palin was not chosen based on ability or knowledge.
They just gave Palin a sarcastic speech to read, put a waving flag behind her, and the pubs thought she was real.
I swear the GOP lemmings are the most gullible lot in America. They gave us Bush twice by falling for the same BS.
Did no one else see this coming? You can fake it for a few days, but not for two months. This is the person who is running for VICE PRESIDENT of the UNITED STATES of AMERICA!
Posted by: No surprise | Sep 30, 2008 9:51:05 AM
What do businesses do when their taxes are raised in this country?
They move their business to a country with less tax.
Let Obama become president, so that all of this supporters will have to move to a foreign country to keep their jobs.
Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 9:56:10 AM
The palin bounce can be seen clearly. It is now headed straight down...
Posted by: pt | Sep 30, 2008 9:56:49 AM
Angelo, Um what? you obviously like Hillary but doubt Obama will get impeached...would like to see legal action against Cheney though, he has undermined the Constitution at every opportunity. Rumsfield should be up their as well, no way he didn't no what was happening in those prisons. & Peg I assume your talking about that Rush Limbaugh ad? yea it is pretty bad but I don't think either candidate (McCain Or Obama) really have much to do with the attack ads, thats left to the campaign. You really think McCain felt Obama wanted to teach Sex Ed to PreSchoolers? I really don't think he did. But with politics before you can make change you have to be in a position to carry out change. Sad but true. Both sides are responsible for this economic mess both had time controlling the Congress & neither did anything. Now neither wants to be seen as to be wholly responsible for the bill (thats why the democrats didn't carry the bill themselves). Both sides want to be reelected & a bipartisan deal would take away sole responsiblity. Dems agreed to get 120-140 votes, Rep 70-100. Thats where it fell down. It will get done but there going to be some pain before it does! We will bounce back stronger we always do.
Posted by: stonerscum | Sep 30, 2008 9:57:08 AM
Ann: Are you illiterate,innumerate, or just plain stupid?
Nearly two-thirds of Democrats voted FOR the bailout; two-thirds of Republicans voted no.
1) Learn to do basic math. 2) Read stories carefully before commenting. 3) Grow a brain.
Posted by: Leah | Sep 30, 2008 10:00:55 AM
mr scum:
what do you think Obama is going to do with a failed economy?
Raise taxes on businesses and the wealthy, which translates to hirer prices to you and me, you know the 95% that will get that wopping $1000.
Which will be gone just pay the hirer prices.
Obama will will and be impeached AND removed from office within one year.
So what?
Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:00:58 AM
Obama/Biden will lead this country in the right direction and he was right not
to Bailout wall Street this prove he is
a people President Lets bailout the ones
who is losing home and jobs this is the
best solution for this Country, we did
not put Wall Street in this position the
Greedy CEO'S put wall street in this
position.OBAMA FOR PRESIDENT!
Posted by: Ervin Fox | Sep 30, 2008 10:01:03 AM
HP Boston,
First, get a job or find something constructive to do because you are spending way too much time spewing hate and anger. You need to open your eyes and grow up...
Second, get used to hearing President Obama because he will win so get over it.
Posted by: The Truth | Sep 30, 2008 10:03:09 AM
Angelo, even if that did all happen, its not an impeachable offence. Look up constitutional law.
Posted by: Stonerscum | Sep 30, 2008 10:03:25 AM
THE seeds of today's financial meltdown lie in the Commu nity Reinvestment Act - a law passed in 1977 and made riskier by unwise amendments and regulatory rulings in later decades.
CRA was meant to encourage banks to make loans to high-risk borrowers, often minorities living in unstable neighborhoods. That has provided an opening to radical groups like ACORN (the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now) to abuse the law by forcing banks to make hundreds of millions of dollars in "subprime" loans to often uncreditworthy poor and minority customers.
Any bank that wants to expand or merge with another has to show it has complied with CRA - and approval can be held up by complaints filed by groups like ACORN.
In fact, intimidation tactics, public charges of racism and threats to use CRA to block business expansion have enabled ACORN to extract hundreds of millions of dollars in loans and contributions from America's financial institutions.
Banks already overexposed by these shaky loans were pushed still further in the wrong direction when government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac began buying up their bad loans and offering them for sale on world markets.
Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 30, 2008 10:03:54 AM
Unfortunately, there is no guarantee (even though he is clearly the better of the 2 candidates.) Obama's race remains a huge elephant in the elections. I will believe he wins only after it happens. Sadly, fear of difference still pervades many communities this country.
Posted by: Whatever | Sep 30, 2008 10:05:38 AM
Um,Ann. The bill didn't pass because of the republican vote. And Obama isn't president...yet. He dosen't run congress. And if republicans kept up their 70% of the bargain, it would have passed. Where was McCain?
Posted by: hannah | Sep 30, 2008 10:07:22 AM
mr scum:
when Obama can't produce everything he is promising to us "middle class" folk, he will have all americans petitioning for his removal of office.
Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:08:47 AM
HP,
Again your lack of credibilty shows.
The banking collapse had absolutely nothing to do with community organizers. It's another rediculous analogy. But as always, you have to stretch to try and find something negative to say about Obama.
In 2004, the SEC loosened regulations requiring that banks hold $1 for every $12 loaned and changed it to $1 for every $40 dollars loaned. They allowed only five banks to change their holdings-to-loan ratio and guess which five just collapsed?
Changing the debt ratios made it so that even a small number of defaults would collapse the system. The fall in the housing market made the collape inevitable. Thank you deregulators! (McSame)
The other issue stems from the way banks traded insured loans. In simplistic terms, they were all just insuring each other. So when one fell, they all fell. The changes in this policy began in the mid '90's.
So give up trying to blame Barack. Anyone with any sense knows it had nothing to do with him. You CAN blame the stauch supporters of deregulation. This would include John McCain and friends.
Posted by: No surprise | Sep 30, 2008 10:11:05 AM
HP Boston wrote:
WHAT exactly does a "community organizer" do? Barack Obama's rise has left many Americans asking themselves that question. Here's a big part of the answer: Community organizers intimidate banks into making high-risk loans to customers with poor credit.
In the name of fairness to minorities, community organizers occupy private offices, chant inside bank lobbies, and confront executives at their homes - and thereby force financial institutions to direct hundreds of millions of dollars in mortgages to low-credit customers.
In other words, community organizers help to undermine the US economy by pushing the banking system into a sinkhole of bad loans. And Obama has spent years training and funding the organizers who do it.
WHAT?????
Posted by: ChrisD | Sep 30, 2008 10:12:13 AM
Anyone who wins and it will probably be Obama, the are going to have to solve a lot of problems.
Raising anyone's taxes are not going solve the problem. Companies will just move their business to another country.
Say goodbye to your job, say goodbye to the taxpayers who had those jobs.
Barrack Obama, a one year term.
And then what will we have, and old, white man, as president.
Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:12:28 AM
Angelo read the Constitution! Impeachment can only can in cases of: "Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."
The entire planet could hate him & it still wouldn't give grounds for impeachment! If it was down to popularity Bush would have been gone ages ago. You can keep saying & wishing it doesn't make the law change
Posted by: stonerscum | Sep 30, 2008 10:12:28 AM
I think bringing socialism/communism to a the United States of America is treason.
Good Luck and Goodbye!
Posted by: Angelo | Sep 30, 2008 10:15:15 AM
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