Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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The Remaining Game Changers

September 22, 2008 7:42 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

So, now, with only a few days until the first presidential debate, which is likely to garner record viewership, it seems a good time to take stock of the patterns that have developed and the possible game changers that could still emerge in these final weeks of the election.

As expected, the Palin pop subsided and Obama has retaken a small lead in the race.  It seems the equilibrium in this race is Obama leading McCain by a small but formidable few percentage points.  Events happen, and then this lead returns.  This lead is mainly driven by the generic party advantages the Democrats have this year because of an unpopular administration and voters' hunger for real change in Washington.

What can change this Obama built-in lead advantage?

First, the events of last week related to the financial meltdown of established institutions could cause this lead to grow, or at least solidify for Obama.  Why?

If this race becomes solely about the economy, then Democrats have a huge advantage.  They lead Republicans solidly in polling on this issue and that hasn't changed much in last few months.  McCain's answers about the economy being "fundamentally sound" certainly haven't helped him when voters are asked to judge if he appreciates what's going on in their lives.

In addition, in most voters' minds, last week's crisis was deserving of collective action by the country and serious government involvement.  In recent U.S. political history, when the country is in a collective action mood, Democrats have almost always gained the advantage.  When the country is more focused on individual action or responsibility, Republicans usually gain.  This desire for government involvement will help the Democrats because voters' assumptions will be that Democrats are more likely to be good at that.

Yet, the debate on Friday and the other remaining debates could reset the equilibrium of the race and bring McCain to parity or possibly with a lead.  But debates could also provide an opportunity for Obama to break the race open and widen his sliver of a lead. 

Either outcome depends entirely on each candidate's ability to connect and perform at the debates.  The question will be who will be first to really set the tone?  If one significantly falters, then the gameclock on this cycle could be significantly reset.  McCain needs a win to overcome Obama's built in advantage in this race.

I look forward to watching.

September 22, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (187)

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I feel McCain will completely annihialate Obama in the debates. It's very apparent that Obama cannot speak without a teleprompter or a speech written by Axelrod. On the other hand, McCain is a master in debates and will completely dominate.

McCain/Palin 08!
"Country First!"

Posted by: ObamasNemesis | Sep 22, 2008 8:11:03 AM

So basically the above article is rehashing the obvious. How about a REAL story to report. VOTER FRAUD and disregard of federal voting laws in several "swing states", (Wisconsin, Michigan, etc.), and the Democrats blocking those trying to clean up election fraud.

Posted by: Jack | Sep 22, 2008 8:12:53 AM

Email your Congress Person and Tell Them
"NO MORE BAILOUTS"
by David Neal
09-21-08

On the 10th of June 2008, the Bank of International Settlements announced the largest gain in derivatives outstanding since they started to report on this. The notional value of all outstanding derivatives now totals approximately $1.144 QUADRILLION. That is 1144 TRILLION DOLLARS.

At the exchange rate this week (Wednesday), 35 trillion British Pounds was equivalent to U.S. $62 trillion. According to the International Swaps and Derivatives Association , $62 trillion is the notional value of credit default swaps (CDS) out there, somewhere, in the market. Credit default swaps are not standardized instruments. In fact, they technically aren't true securities in the classic sense of the word in that they're not transparent, aren't traded on any exchange, aren't subject to present securities laws, and aren't regulated. They are, however, at risk – all $62 trillion of them.

These are TRILLIONS of Dollars not BILLIONS

Frustrated by the US government's rescue of AIG, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, a group of 100 conservative congressmen today urged the Bush administration to stop keeping Wall Street afloat.

The RSC members, all serving in the House of Representatives, noted with alarm that the government action this week "has the appearance of a socialist and not a free market approach to managing our economy".

Rescuing failing financial firms has "set a dangerous and unmistakable precedent for the federal government both to be looked to and relied upon to save private sector companies from the consequences of their poor economic decisions," the RSC members wrote.

All while this was going on the Major Media could only talk of the "New Messiah". Not one ounce of investigative journalism on the subject of who is liable for all this debt. Not one article, not a single word telling of the vast financial imbalances of leveraged monies, YOU our elected officials and the Big Banks have created.

Just 9 days ago Henry Paulson (i.e.. former CEO of one of The Banks Too Big to Fail, Goldman Sachs) told us "all is well". He has no idea what to do or what will come of this or he is a liar.

The very same people that put us into this mess are the very same people advising the President and Congress on how to fix the problems they have created. This is insanity! The bailouts now being proposed are not bailing out American Workers but are bailing out the rest of the World on the backs of the AMERICAN TAXPAYER as if we don't have a huge enough burden already.

The numbers posed by the Bank of International Settlements are staggering. Billion Dollar infusions will do nothing to stop the inevitable. A few weeks ago the billions and billions in infusions of American greenbacks probably helped delay, but did not repair the devastation. Today these same Billions of Dollars in bailouts are absorbed like a thirsty Whale.

I can tell Congress one thing is for sure, that a movement has started and I and many many more like me are going to stop paying our taxes if this insanity of bailouts is not stopped, now! And we will vote every congressperson out of office if they vote for anymore bailouts, period!!!

We are in historically unprecedented times. The foundation is being laid for a default of USTreasurys in the wake of the greatest regulatory failure in modern history (i.e.. the repeal of Glass-Steagall), and the collapse of the US financial system. If you look back, Paul Volker predicted this would happen if the newly appointed Alan Greenspan implemented his ideas to make more money for the banks.

When this happens the World will turn their backs on us and things will get nasty real quick. All we will be left with is the American citizens, to pick up the pieces and start over.

Congress needs to remember who butters it's bread and start standing up for American Citizens like you were put there to do. We are not worried about a "global financial meltdown", we are worried about being taxed to death and putting groceries on the table. We could care less about what happens to Wall Street. You also need to understand, we can and will - take back our country from the criminals in charge now.

Here is a link to find your Congress Persons and email them your anger on these socialist bailouts that will do nothing to help the massive financial imbalances we face. They will only line the pockets of the architects of this mess and make our Tax burden unbearable.

STOP THE INSANITY NOW!!!

Posted by: Bing | Sep 22, 2008 8:14:40 AM

THE VILLAGES -- Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin told wildly cheering, flag-waving, chanting supporters that John McCain is "the only great man in this race" and promised Sunday he will fix the nation's economy if voters give the GOP four more years in the White House.

"He won't say this, so I'll say it for him," the Alaska governor said in an almost confidential tone at the close of her first Florida stump speech. "There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you. John McCain wore the uniform of his country for 22 years -- talk about tough."

The Villages, a vast, upscale planned community north of Orlando, has about 70,000 mostly adult residents -- many of them military retirees -- who vote reliably Republican in statewide races. Tens of thousands inched along roads into the picturesque town square of the complex, where they stood in sweltering heat for about four hours as local GOP officials and a country band revved up the crowd.

"Sa-Rah! Sa-Rah!" they chanted at every mention of her name, applauding loudly and waiving tiny American flags that were distributed -- along with free water bottles -- by local volunteers. The fire chief estimated the crowd at 60,000.

Posted by: Bing | Sep 22, 2008 8:16:47 AM

THE VILLAGES -- Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin told wildly cheering, flag-waving, chanting supporters that John McCain is "the only great man in this race" and promised Sunday he will fix the nation's economy if voters give the GOP four more years in the White House.

"He won't say this, so I'll say it for him," the Alaska governor said in an almost confidential tone at the close of her first Florida stump speech. "There is only one man in this election who has ever really fought for you. John McCain wore the uniform of his country for 22 years -- talk about tough."

The Villages, a vast, upscale planned community north of Orlando, has about 70,000 mostly adult residents -- many of them military retirees -- who vote reliably Republican in statewide races. Tens of thousands inched along roads into the picturesque town square of the complex, where they stood in sweltering heat for about four hours as local GOP officials and a country band revved up the crowd.

"Sa-Rah! Sa-Rah!" they chanted at every mention of her name, applauding loudly and waiving tiny American flags that were distributed -- along with free water bottles -- by local volunteers. The fire chief estimated the crowd at 60,000.

Posted by: Bing | Sep 22, 2008 8:22:07 AM

Let's see how many debate questions McCain can answer without using "POW" in the answer.

Posted by: kcmich | Sep 22, 2008 8:26:37 AM

trickle down does not work mccain so you shovel up. Thanks but no thanks to maccain/pallin

Posted by: againstMccain | Sep 22, 2008 9:44:27 AM

McCain is too out-dated with his thinking. He is an American hero, no doubt, but that does not qualify him to lead us on issues like economics, which his knowledge and his record clearly show he is not up to the task.

Palin is plan and simple, an insult to the American people as to preparedness, intelligence on foreign policy and national issues and in no way the right person to be put in a leadership position for this country. The hypocrisy of not believing in sex education because it's up to the family in view of her 17 year old daughter's pregnancy is just staggering. And that's one of the things we happen to know about.

Obama is a very smart man. His heritage shows diversity and struggle, just like what America represents. He inspires people, he believes in debate and dissenting views and in navigating amongst the best and the brightest. He understands complex issues and has a genuine sense of self-sacrifice.

Biden is an excellent pick for VP. He balances the ticket with additional knowledge of how the beltway works...which is honestly what you need in order to truly know how to change it.

The Democratic party is the only chance we have to move forward and try to right this country. And I honestly feel embarrassed for Republicans with the ticket they have...a has been Maverick who has so twisted himself into something unrecognizable due to the Republican machine and his unqualified Miss Congeniality VP who runs a state roughly the size of the Austin metro area and obviously repeats statements being drummed into her by consultants with every syllable she utters. McCain/Palin would be a tragedy for this country.

VOTE OBAMA/BIDEN 08!

Posted by: tm | Sep 22, 2008 9:58:21 AM

John McCain is an avid reader and is known for rereading many works of his favorite authors. The favorite author of John McCain is Herman Wouk who has written The Winds of War, War and Remembrance, and the Caine Mutiny. Wouk served as an executive Naval officer aboard a minesweeper during War War II and used that experience in forming the character of Captain Queeg in the Caine Mutiny. Victor Henry the main character in Winds of War and War and Remembrance was a naval officer who became a confidant both to FDR and Harry Truman. FDR and Harry Truman went outside the normal channels of military command and relied on Victor Henry for straight talk advice on how to approach Russia and Germany and Japan prior and during World War II. John McCain sees himself as the Victor Henry character who was a realist in foreign policy and understood the nuances of war and foreign policy better than anyone. John McCain is a realist and more knowledgeable about foreign policy than either Joe Biden or Barack Obama due to his experiences and also just growing up as the son and grandson of Navy admirals. It is totally inaccurate to argue that John McCain is somehow dogmatic in his approach and understanding of foreign affairs. Herman Wouk wove history into his novels. There is saying that those who do not know history are doomed to repeat history. John McCain knows history and has lived it and will use that knowledge to guide the United States through the tough challenges that we face in the war on terror and dealing with a resurgent Russia.

Posted by: bhcg89 | Sep 22, 2008 10:25:45 AM

mccain will look even more senile when he debates with someone as smart and with the great judgement obama has. cant wait to laugh at mcsame.

Posted by: tom | Sep 22, 2008 10:41:02 AM

"With all do respect moderator, I can't fully answer that question right now. But in seriousness my friend, when I was a POW, I didnt have the option to answer or not answer a question. That was the difference between life and death. I had to answer the guards. So I think I've earned the right, to take a pass on this particular question"- McCain in about 4 days

Obama/Biden

Posted by: PoliticsAsUsual | Sep 22, 2008 11:03:04 AM

if mccain discover that the humans are greedy then he is naive and so is not electable as president.

Posted by: nocool | Sep 22, 2008 11:13:20 AM

I would like to know why the media isn't highlighting the fact that Sen. Obama ridiculed Sen. McCain because he didn't use a computer - trying to make it seem that he is too old for new-fangled technology. Sen. McCain is entirely capable of dealing with new technology, except that typing on a pc is very difficult due to his injuries while fighting for his country. If McCain's camp had created an ad as absolutely stupid and clueless about Obama, the media would have been howling for his head. I really hope that most people do understand that McCain has been called the most techno-savvy person in congress. This is one concrete example of the numerous lies from Sen Obama. I would like to see one solid example of a lie from Sen. McCain. It is easy to say that he lies, but no one will give an example. Let's hear it.

Posted by: just_the_facts_maam | Sep 22, 2008 11:18:51 AM

I'm looking forward to the debates as well, can't wait to see if McCain looks as stupid as Bush or more.

Posted by: Nik | Sep 22, 2008 11:19:56 AM

bhcg89: How such a visionary person as McCain and so educated about foreign policy and war as put us in this mess. How such a good reader and historian and with that is mccain finish 894 of 899 at the naval academy. How just growing up as the son and grandson of Navy admirals as the audacity to flip-flop from one day to the next. Come on Bro, explain

Posted by: tictac | Sep 22, 2008 11:24:02 AM

just the facts...

If McCain would create a pointless ad? Try Brittney Spears and Hilton...Just because his injuries stop him from doing so doesnt really give him a pass. That's like saying because you're blind you cant play basketball, and then you wanting to play for the Celtics. If he is old, and in-capable of basic acts, why is he running for President. And as for a lie they have told; how about the Bridge to Nowhere? That's 1, and we could keep going if you want.

Posted by: PoliticsAsUsual | Sep 22, 2008 11:26:28 AM

PoliticsAsUsual, yes keep going. Thanks but no thanks to Obama

Posted by: Redpittbull | Sep 22, 2008 11:29:53 AM

George Will threw McCain under the bus yesterday. Just look at the video.

http://www.crooksandliars.com/2008/09/21/this-week-roundtable-consensus-mccain-is-clueless-on-the-economy/

I guess hell has frozen over.

Posted by: allheavens | Sep 22, 2008 11:46:52 AM

For those who neglect history, there was another governor who was under 45. One who also loved the outdoors, hunted, and had a bunch of kids. One who was a Republican reformer, and not afraid to attack his own party. One who became VP after just two years as governor. Amazing similarity but Teddy Roosevelt went on to become one of our greatest presidents.

Jerry Sweeney

Sarah Palin could be the best VP and the greatest President this nation ever had.

Women support Sarah Palin.

Posted by: janetbiden | Sep 22, 2008 12:19:55 PM

Despite what the liberal elite media may say, history will be made with a woman in the White House and not an African man who is strongly antisemitic.

Women support McCain/Palin '08 while Hollywood trash support Nobama.

Posted by: janetbiden | Sep 22, 2008 12:25:52 PM

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