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Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Two Conventions Down

September 15, 2008 11:06 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Two conventions down, big ABC interview with Governor Palin, and big debate on the horizon so where do we stand in this presidential race?

Obama got a brief, temporary lift from his convention in Denver and his speech on the last night, but this lift disappeared within 24 hours of the speech.  Why?

McCain introduced 'Hurricane Palin' to the country and it quickly moved from a Category One to a Category Three, overwhelming the Democrats (probably briefly) and taking over the Republican Convention in the Twin Cities.

McCain has not only succeeded in knocking down Obama's bump but has actually taken a small lead in the presidential race.

The open question is: how long will the Palin pop last?  Will the new introduction of her be an iPod or will it be the pet rock (quickly gathered up and then put on a shelf)?  Time will tell.

We should all keep in mind that in 1984 Walter Mondale was behind by double digits before he picked Geraldine Ferraro as his vice presidential nominee.  The race quickly went to even, and in some polls Mondale had a slight lead.  Within ten days to two weeks the race trended right back to where it was before Mondale picked her.

My guess is this race will trend back to even soon, then Obama with a small insignificant lead before the first debate on September 26th, and then the public will again look at both and decide. 

A couple of my own observations from watching the last few weeks and maybe a few unasked for suggestions:

1.  Since the Palin pick, the Obama campaign has seemed to lose some of their mojo.  They need to get it back, and probably next best time is the debate.

If I were the Obama folks, I would be spending most of my time preparing and practicing for that debate, and trying to get answers down to brief direct responses which connect with people. 

I also think Obama should consider accepting McCain challenge for a series of town hall debates but only agree if Palin does same against Biden.

2. McCain has been successful in the short run of co-opting Obama's change message.  I say short run because for months the McCain's effort was all about ready vs. not ready, and now this shift happened because of the Palin pick. 

When I watched the speeches at the convention in the Twin Cities and McCain and Palin on the trail, I almost find it surreal.  The Republicans' message seems to be a combination of 'If you want a change from us, vote for us' or 'We broke it, let us fix it'. 

It is amazing, but I don't think this can be sustained for the next fifty days.  It reminds me of the joke I made in a campaign meeting in 2004 for Bush and said our slogan should be "Things suck, stay the course".

3. The Charlie Gibson interviews with Sarah Palin were informative and interesting, but weren't over the top, as many suggested. 

If Palin supporters think that was over the top, well then they should just wait for when 50 microphones are shoved in her face over a controversy. 

In most respects Palin handled herself reasonably well, though I have to say from my perspective I was most taken aback by her answer to Gibson's question about whether she hesitated when she was asked by McCain to be his vice presidential running mate.

Without batting an eyelash, she said no, and that she didn't blink or question her answer.

I would rather have someone in that position that at least hesitates and does some introspection before they make a decision that big.  At least she should have said, 'I wanted to talk to my family and think about how this would affect my life and if I thought I was ready.'

We have had a President over last eight years who has prided himself on snap judgments and I don't know if that has served us well. 

That's all for now my friends, see ya along the trail. 

September 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (54)

User Comments

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I thought the same thing about hte Palin interview, especially given her families extraordinary circumstances right now. Having just had a downs baby, and with a pregnant teenage daughter, wouldn't you at least stp to consider how it might effect your family?

I think the current financial crisis might help Obama get back some momentum, at least he will be able to talk about issues again.

Posted by: markymark | Sep 15, 2008 11:16:52 AM

Put your pen away Matthew, lets face it. NoBama should be 20 points ahead by now what with all tha early Massiah hype and the now exposed un-mainstream media support. I agree Palin is not Joan Of Arc, but she is the Republican spark, to victory in November.

Posted by: bombem | Sep 15, 2008 11:27:04 AM

I agree as well about the "I didn't blink" answer. Our most respected Presidents in times of crisis have been "thinkers" not "reactors". Lincoln, FDR, JFK. I consider Bush and McCain (and Palin) "reactors". Obama, judging from his original speech against the Iraq war shows that he's a thinker. He considers the consequences before he makes a decision. It's definitely time for a thinker in the White House.

Posted by: maryanne | Sep 15, 2008 11:27:25 AM

When Karl Rove goes on Fox News to say that the McCain campaign is lying too much, you know it's gonna be ugly.

Why would McCain throw away his honor and integrity like this?

Does he think his cynical dishonesty will be forgotten by the many Democrats (myself included) who once respected him?

Didn't his mother teach him that IN THE LONG RUN, HONESTY IS THE BEST POLICY?

WHAT HAPPENED TO STRAIGHT TALK?

Posted by: Ed from MA | Sep 15, 2008 11:31:51 AM

Barack Obama recently finished a $500,000 total overhaul of his 757. And as part of the new design, he decided to remove the American flag from the tail...
What American running for President of the United States would remove the symbol of his country? And worse, he replaced the flag with it with a symbol of himself...

Posted by: hello | Sep 15, 2008 11:35:45 AM

BARACK OBAMA ONLY HAS 143 DAYS IN THE SENATE OFFICE. AND NOW HE IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT. GET REAL AMERICA, WE NEED SOMEONE THAT IS MORE EXPERIENCED AND KNOWS WHAT TO DO TO RUN IN THE WHITE HOUSE.

NO OBAMA

Posted by: NO OBAMA | Sep 15, 2008 11:36:57 AM

Posted by: adam | Sep 15, 2008 11:38:40 AM

One of the first things Governor Sarah Palin did upon taking office was to have a TANNING BED installed in the Governor's Mansion for her use.

“The governor did have a tanning bed put in the Governor’s Mansion,” Roger Wetherell, chief communications officer of Alaska’s Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, confirmed to this newspaper. “It was done shortly after she took office [in early 2007] and moved into the mansion.”

Good to know where Sarah Palin's priorities are. I wonder where that money for the tanning bed came from... They cost between $10,000 - $35,000.


See the full story on Narco.

Posted by: Narco News | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:14 AM

'hello': I don't believe you.

I don't believe anything Republicans say anymore.

Nothing.

If McCain wins with the dishonesty game he's playing right now, all bets are off in this culture. No more social contract.

You think things in this country are bad now?

Posted by: Ed from MA | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:22 AM

I agree that Obama should spend a lot of time preparing for the debate. He has stumbled in the past when he has shown up unprepared (Philly, Saddleback), and this could be the whole ballgame.

Posted by: jac13 | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:38 AM

WE ALL HAVE TO CRAWL BEFORE WE CAN WALK. IT GOES THE SAME FOR THE PRESIDENT OF OUR USA. YOU HAVE TO START OFF LITTLE AND LEARN MORE EXPERIENCE AS YOU GO. YOU DONT JUST JUMP RIGHT INTO THE PRESIDENT'S SEAT AND THINK THAT YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO TO RUN THE USA WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE.

SO USA GET REAL AND REALIZE THAT OBAMA IS NOT THE RIGHT PERSON TO ELECT FOR THE PRESIDENT OF OUR USA. THE LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE BRAVE.

Posted by: NO OBAMA | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:40 AM

Barack Obama recently finished a $500,000 total overhaul of his 757. And as part of the new design, he decided to remove the American flag from the tail...

What American running for President of the United States would remove the symbol of his country? And worse, he replaced the flag with it with a symbol of himself...

Posted by: HELLO | Sep 15, 2008 11:41:56 AM

I agree about the town hall meetings - for both candidates and their running mates. I believe Obama refusing to do this is yet again an illustration of his refusal to really be pinned down in unscripted interviews and questions. While I understand he wants to play to his strengths - making big speeches in front of backdrops of American flags - the big question is how will he handle things just thrown at him, from little things to the big crisis? If he is refusing to do this now, how accountable will he be if he gets in the White House?

Strangely enough, I see more similarity between Bush and Obama rather than with McCain - obviously not in policy but rather in style. Bush won't answer questions, he seems like he believes he can make a decision and that's just it - no apology, no going back and re-examining it, etc. Kind of like he was predestined for the presidency. Obama is very similar in that way - he won't answer questions (one of the few "real" interviews he was in he stomped off after 8 questions), he seems very condescending and when caught - as in Wright, the "bitter" remark, NAFTA, etc. - he lies or distorts what he meant and then blames it on someone else.

I don't agree with all of McCain and Palin's policies, but I do know I feel a much bigger level of trust and honor about them. Obama seems to me to be first and foremost for himself and his ambition. We are in a crisis, and that's something we definitely don't need and really that's no change at all.

Posted by: traci | Sep 15, 2008 11:42:22 AM

Great Monday! McCain/Palin ahead in almost all states and close in NY/NJ.

Americans always respect, backup and answer to a Hero, John McCain.

Obama and bitter wife, NEVER!

Posted by: Mrs.Phoenix | Sep 15, 2008 11:45:00 AM

..."In most respects Palin handled herself reasonably well, though I have to say from my perspective I was most taken aback by her answer to Gibson's question about whether she hesitated when she was asked by McCain to be his vice presidential running mate."...
.
By the time a person is actually asked to be a running mate, they've had time to consider ALL the ramifications and decide if they can handle it. Sarah Palin obviously had done that, which allowed her to respond promptly and definitely. If, God forbid, there is a 3 A.M. phone call one morning, I don't want the one answering it to have to ponder on his/her response.

Posted by: Charlie35 | Sep 15, 2008 11:45:10 AM

OBAMA HAS ONLY 143 DAYS BEING THE SENATE, FOR REAL NOW, HE DOES NOT HAVE THE CORRECT EXPERIENCE TO BE OUR PRESIDENT. GET REAL AMERICA, WE NEED SOMEONE TO BE THE PRESIDENT THAT HAVE THE EXPERIENCE AND THE QUALIFICATIONS REQUIRED. NOT A BEGINNER THAT HAS NO IDEA AND EXPERIENCE ON WHAT TO DO IF HE ACTUALLY GET IN THE WHITE HOUSE SEAT. WE DONT NEED A PERSON THAT IS GOING TO TAKE GUESSES (HE ONLY HAS 143 DAYS EXPERIENCE IN SENATE FOR CRYING OUT LOUD) ON WHAT HE THINKS IS RIGHT (WITH NO EXPERIENCE AT ALL BEING PRESIDENT) TO DO FOR OUR USA.

IT DOESNT TAKE A MATH GENIUS TO FIGURE THIS ONE OUT AMERICA.

OBAMA IS NOT WHO OUR USA NEEDS TO VOTE FOR.

Posted by: HELLO | Sep 15, 2008 11:47:19 AM

Republicans = UNTRUSTWORTHY

UGLY TO THE BONE.

Posted by: Ed from MA | Sep 15, 2008 11:50:00 AM

TO ED FROM MA:

I AM SORRY TO SAY BUT I AM DEFINATELY NOT A REPUBLICAN!!!

I AM 100% DEMOCRAT, I REFUSE TO VOTE FOR A REPUBLICAN. SO GUESS WHAT I WILL NOT VOTE THIS YEAR. I DEFINATELY WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA AND SERIOUSLY I WILL NOT VOTE FOR MCCAIN BECAUSE HE IS A REPUBLIC. I CASTED MY VOTE FOR HILLARY MONTHS AGO, AND SHE DIDNT MAKE IT TO THE PRESIDENTS CANDACY, BUT RAN A VERY GOOD GAME FOR IT THOUGH.

I KNOW THE ECONOMY IS DOWN RIGHT NOW THAT MAKES OTHERS ITEMS PRICED SOAR THROUGH THE ROUGH. BUT IF OBAMA OR MCCAIN GETS TO THE PRESIDENTS CHAIR, OH NO, WE ARE GOING STRAIGHT TO THE CLEANERS THEN.

SO BEFORE YOU POST SOMETHING ON THE COMMENT SHEET THAT IS FALSE, YOU FIRST NEED TO GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT.

Posted by: HELLO | Sep 15, 2008 11:57:45 AM

for more of the same vote John McCain!

Posted by: Gus | Sep 15, 2008 11:59:19 AM

Seems to me that the "traditional" media outlets are more focused on competing with bloggers by taking the edgy approach to politics, etc. The race is being treated like a sporting event, where any commentary is allowable as long as the speaker (writer) isn't 'on the take', etc.

It's all bunk. I'd rather see no coverage, than this biased coverage camouflaged as real reporting. There should be left blogs, right blogs, and the middle. There is no middle in today's world.

Posted by: FishMonger | Sep 15, 2008 12:00:49 PM

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