Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Two Conventions Down

September 15, 2008 11:06 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

Two conventions down, big ABC interview with Governor Palin, and big debate on the horizon so where do we stand in this presidential race?

Obama got a brief, temporary lift from his convention in Denver and his speech on the last night, but this lift disappeared within 24 hours of the speech.  Why?

McCain introduced 'Hurricane Palin' to the country and it quickly moved from a Category One to a Category Three, overwhelming the Democrats (probably briefly) and taking over the Republican Convention in the Twin Cities.

McCain has not only succeeded in knocking down Obama's bump but has actually taken a small lead in the presidential race.

The open question is: how long will the Palin pop last?  Will the new introduction of her be an iPod or will it be the pet rock (quickly gathered up and then put on a shelf)?  Time will tell.

We should all keep in mind that in 1984 Walter Mondale was behind by double digits before he picked Geraldine Ferraro as his vice presidential nominee.  The race quickly went to even, and in some polls Mondale had a slight lead.  Within ten days to two weeks the race trended right back to where it was before Mondale picked her.

My guess is this race will trend back to even soon, then Obama with a small insignificant lead before the first debate on September 26th, and then the public will again look at both and decide. 

A couple of my own observations from watching the last few weeks and maybe a few unasked for suggestions:

1.  Since the Palin pick, the Obama campaign has seemed to lose some of their mojo.  They need to get it back, and probably next best time is the debate.

If I were the Obama folks, I would be spending most of my time preparing and practicing for that debate, and trying to get answers down to brief direct responses which connect with people. 

I also think Obama should consider accepting McCain challenge for a series of town hall debates but only agree if Palin does same against Biden.

2. McCain has been successful in the short run of co-opting Obama's change message.  I say short run because for months the McCain's effort was all about ready vs. not ready, and now this shift happened because of the Palin pick. 

When I watched the speeches at the convention in the Twin Cities and McCain and Palin on the trail, I almost find it surreal.  The Republicans' message seems to be a combination of 'If you want a change from us, vote for us' or 'We broke it, let us fix it'. 

It is amazing, but I don't think this can be sustained for the next fifty days.  It reminds me of the joke I made in a campaign meeting in 2004 for Bush and said our slogan should be "Things suck, stay the course".

3. The Charlie Gibson interviews with Sarah Palin were informative and interesting, but weren't over the top, as many suggested. 

If Palin supporters think that was over the top, well then they should just wait for when 50 microphones are shoved in her face over a controversy. 

In most respects Palin handled herself reasonably well, though I have to say from my perspective I was most taken aback by her answer to Gibson's question about whether she hesitated when she was asked by McCain to be his vice presidential running mate.

Without batting an eyelash, she said no, and that she didn't blink or question her answer.

I would rather have someone in that position that at least hesitates and does some introspection before they make a decision that big.  At least she should have said, 'I wanted to talk to my family and think about how this would affect my life and if I thought I was ready.'

We have had a President over last eight years who has prided himself on snap judgments and I don't know if that has served us well. 

That's all for now my friends, see ya along the trail. 

September 15, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (54)

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I thought the same thing about hte Palin interview, especially given her families extraordinary circumstances right now. Having just had a downs baby, and with a pregnant teenage daughter, wouldn't you at least stp to consider how it might effect your family?

I think the current financial crisis might help Obama get back some momentum, at least he will be able to talk about issues again.

Posted by: markymark | Sep 15, 2008 11:16:52 AM

Put your pen away Matthew, lets face it. NoBama should be 20 points ahead by now what with all tha early Massiah hype and the now exposed un-mainstream media support. I agree Palin is not Joan Of Arc, but she is the Republican spark, to victory in November.

Posted by: bombem | Sep 15, 2008 11:27:04 AM

I agree as well about the "I didn't blink" answer. Our most respected Presidents in times of crisis have been "thinkers" not "reactors". Lincoln, FDR, JFK. I consider Bush and McCain (and Palin) "reactors". Obama, judging from his original speech against the Iraq war shows that he's a thinker. He considers the consequences before he makes a decision. It's definitely time for a thinker in the White House.

Posted by: maryanne | Sep 15, 2008 11:27:25 AM

When Karl Rove goes on Fox News to say that the McCain campaign is lying too much, you know it's gonna be ugly.

Why would McCain throw away his honor and integrity like this?

Does he think his cynical dishonesty will be forgotten by the many Democrats (myself included) who once respected him?

Didn't his mother teach him that IN THE LONG RUN, HONESTY IS THE BEST POLICY?

WHAT HAPPENED TO STRAIGHT TALK?

Posted by: Ed from MA | Sep 15, 2008 11:31:51 AM

Barack Obama recently finished a $500,000 total overhaul of his 757. And as part of the new design, he decided to remove the American flag from the tail...
What American running for President of the United States would remove the symbol of his country? And worse, he replaced the flag with it with a symbol of himself...

Posted by: hello | Sep 15, 2008 11:35:45 AM

BARACK OBAMA ONLY HAS 143 DAYS IN THE SENATE OFFICE. AND NOW HE IS RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT. GET REAL AMERICA, WE NEED SOMEONE THAT IS MORE EXPERIENCED AND KNOWS WHAT TO DO TO RUN IN THE WHITE HOUSE.

NO OBAMA

Posted by: NO OBAMA | Sep 15, 2008 11:36:57 AM

Posted by: adam | Sep 15, 2008 11:38:40 AM

One of the first things Governor Sarah Palin did upon taking office was to have a TANNING BED installed in the Governor's Mansion for her use.

“The governor did have a tanning bed put in the Governor’s Mansion,” Roger Wetherell, chief communications officer of Alaska’s Department of Transportation and Public Facilities, confirmed to this newspaper. “It was done shortly after she took office [in early 2007] and moved into the mansion.”

Good to know where Sarah Palin's priorities are. I wonder where that money for the tanning bed came from... They cost between $10,000 - $35,000.


See the full story on Narco.

Posted by: Narco News | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:14 AM

'hello': I don't believe you.

I don't believe anything Republicans say anymore.

Nothing.

If McCain wins with the dishonesty game he's playing right now, all bets are off in this culture. No more social contract.

You think things in this country are bad now?

Posted by: Ed from MA | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:22 AM

I agree that Obama should spend a lot of time preparing for the debate. He has stumbled in the past when he has shown up unprepared (Philly, Saddleback), and this could be the whole ballgame.

Posted by: jac13 | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:38 AM

WE ALL HAVE TO CRAWL BEFORE WE CAN WALK. IT GOES THE SAME FOR THE PRESIDENT OF OUR USA. YOU HAVE TO START OFF LITTLE AND LEARN MORE EXPERIENCE AS YOU GO. YOU DONT JUST JUMP RIGHT INTO THE PRESIDENT'S SEAT AND THINK THAT YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO TO RUN THE USA WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE.

SO USA GET REAL AND REALIZE THAT OBAMA IS NOT THE RIGHT PERSON TO ELECT FOR THE PRESIDENT OF OUR USA. THE LAND OF THE FREE AND THE HOME OF THE BRAVE.

Posted by: NO OBAMA | Sep 15, 2008 11:40:40 AM

Barack Obama recently finished a $500,000 total overhaul of his 757. And as part of the new design, he decided to remove the American flag from the tail...

What American running for President of the United States would remove the symbol of his country? And worse, he replaced the flag with it with a symbol of himself...

Posted by: HELLO | Sep 15, 2008 11:41:56 AM

I agree about the town hall meetings - for both candidates and their running mates. I believe Obama refusing to do this is yet again an illustration of his refusal to really be pinned down in unscripted interviews and questions. While I understand he wants to play to his strengths - making big speeches in front of backdrops of American flags - the big question is how will he handle things just thrown at him, from little things to the big crisis? If he is refusing to do this now, how accountable will he be if he gets in the White House?

Strangely enough, I see more similarity between Bush and Obama rather than with McCain - obviously not in policy but rather in style. Bush won't answer questions, he seems like he believes he can make a decision and that's just it - no apology, no going back and re-examining it, etc. Kind of like he was predestined for the presidency. Obama is very similar in that way - he won't answer questions (one of the few "real" interviews he was in he stomped off after 8 questions), he seems very condescending and when caught - as in Wright, the "bitter" remark, NAFTA, etc. - he lies or distorts what he meant and then blames it on someone else.

I don't agree with all of McCain and Palin's policies, but I do know I feel a much bigger level of trust and honor about them. Obama seems to me to be first and foremost for himself and his ambition. We are in a crisis, and that's something we definitely don't need and really that's no change at all.

Posted by: traci | Sep 15, 2008 11:42:22 AM

Great Monday! McCain/Palin ahead in almost all states and close in NY/NJ.

Americans always respect, backup and answer to a Hero, John McCain.

Obama and bitter wife, NEVER!

Posted by: Mrs.Phoenix | Sep 15, 2008 11:45:00 AM

..."In most respects Palin handled herself reasonably well, though I have to say from my perspective I was most taken aback by her answer to Gibson's question about whether she hesitated when she was asked by McCain to be his vice presidential running mate."...
.
By the time a person is actually asked to be a running mate, they've had time to consider ALL the ramifications and decide if they can handle it. Sarah Palin obviously had done that, which allowed her to respond promptly and definitely. If, God forbid, there is a 3 A.M. phone call one morning, I don't want the one answering it to have to ponder on his/her response.

Posted by: Charlie35 | Sep 15, 2008 11:45:10 AM

OBAMA HAS ONLY 143 DAYS BEING THE SENATE, FOR REAL NOW, HE DOES NOT HAVE THE CORRECT EXPERIENCE TO BE OUR PRESIDENT. GET REAL AMERICA, WE NEED SOMEONE TO BE THE PRESIDENT THAT HAVE THE EXPERIENCE AND THE QUALIFICATIONS REQUIRED. NOT A BEGINNER THAT HAS NO IDEA AND EXPERIENCE ON WHAT TO DO IF HE ACTUALLY GET IN THE WHITE HOUSE SEAT. WE DONT NEED A PERSON THAT IS GOING TO TAKE GUESSES (HE ONLY HAS 143 DAYS EXPERIENCE IN SENATE FOR CRYING OUT LOUD) ON WHAT HE THINKS IS RIGHT (WITH NO EXPERIENCE AT ALL BEING PRESIDENT) TO DO FOR OUR USA.

IT DOESNT TAKE A MATH GENIUS TO FIGURE THIS ONE OUT AMERICA.

OBAMA IS NOT WHO OUR USA NEEDS TO VOTE FOR.

Posted by: HELLO | Sep 15, 2008 11:47:19 AM

Republicans = UNTRUSTWORTHY

UGLY TO THE BONE.

Posted by: Ed from MA | Sep 15, 2008 11:50:00 AM

TO ED FROM MA:

I AM SORRY TO SAY BUT I AM DEFINATELY NOT A REPUBLICAN!!!

I AM 100% DEMOCRAT, I REFUSE TO VOTE FOR A REPUBLICAN. SO GUESS WHAT I WILL NOT VOTE THIS YEAR. I DEFINATELY WILL NOT VOTE FOR OBAMA AND SERIOUSLY I WILL NOT VOTE FOR MCCAIN BECAUSE HE IS A REPUBLIC. I CASTED MY VOTE FOR HILLARY MONTHS AGO, AND SHE DIDNT MAKE IT TO THE PRESIDENTS CANDACY, BUT RAN A VERY GOOD GAME FOR IT THOUGH.

I KNOW THE ECONOMY IS DOWN RIGHT NOW THAT MAKES OTHERS ITEMS PRICED SOAR THROUGH THE ROUGH. BUT IF OBAMA OR MCCAIN GETS TO THE PRESIDENTS CHAIR, OH NO, WE ARE GOING STRAIGHT TO THE CLEANERS THEN.

SO BEFORE YOU POST SOMETHING ON THE COMMENT SHEET THAT IS FALSE, YOU FIRST NEED TO GET YOUR FACTS STRAIGHT.

Posted by: HELLO | Sep 15, 2008 11:57:45 AM

for more of the same vote John McCain!

Posted by: Gus | Sep 15, 2008 11:59:19 AM

Seems to me that the "traditional" media outlets are more focused on competing with bloggers by taking the edgy approach to politics, etc. The race is being treated like a sporting event, where any commentary is allowable as long as the speaker (writer) isn't 'on the take', etc.

It's all bunk. I'd rather see no coverage, than this biased coverage camouflaged as real reporting. There should be left blogs, right blogs, and the middle. There is no middle in today's world.

Posted by: FishMonger | Sep 15, 2008 12:00:49 PM

I'm guessing that Palin had known she was at the top of the list for VP for a bit of time and had pondered it and discussed it with her husband. She had been looked into for four months....so there was nothing as immediate as you are making it sound. She had thought about her answer before McCain formally asked and had her conclusion. You make too much about her answer.
McCAIN/PALIN...COUNTRY FIRST.

Posted by: Debra | Sep 15, 2008 12:05:44 PM

Only in America can you have a ticket with an airhead like Osama who has managed to evade service in the military, cheated his way through college, and used his race to get him elected Senator. Plus, the airhead's choice of a VP is a man (biden) who has already said he would gladly serve on the McCain ticket.

Posted by: Mick | Sep 15, 2008 12:06:34 PM

Don't worry, Democrats,

Most of these polls don't include cell phone only users.
In primary, especially in NC, IN, OR all the polls are less favorable for obama than result.... 4,5 percent less than result....
you know why? because youngsters, renters, students they don't have landlines and they are undersampled....

So if it's less than 4 point minus for Obama, Obama is winning.
If you have doubt, you can check with primary polls....

Posted by: zen | Sep 15, 2008 12:09:17 PM


If anybody has a brain, and if they know that Maccain's economic policy is just same as Bush's, How they want to repeat this again?

if you don't like obama in any personal reason, still you want America going down the drain again for the next 4 years? Are you rich enough to stand any situation?

Posted by: zen | Sep 15, 2008 12:14:12 PM

Obama can run but he cannot hide from the polls. People who make up their minds early in an election usually stick the the current crowd.

What's that flushing sound I hear?

Posted by: dl | Sep 15, 2008 12:15:28 PM

Wow....Adam's post at 11:38 is NEWSWORTHY, if Obama tried to influence any stall of troops coming home early. I thought next June would be when some of our troops start coming home with most back by 2011.
Of course Obama wouldn't want any positive movement to occur under Bush, but it's all mute, as President John McCain will be the man to handle the Iraq situation and return of our troops.
Obama is the man all our enemies want as Prez....would love the U.S. to topple in it's world standing.
McCAIN/PALIN!

Posted by: Debra | Sep 15, 2008 12:24:17 PM

No one listen to the Obots that were sent an email this past weekend and told to say "McCain" and "lie" in as many blogs as you can. It's not working....let it go. If we want to see lies we can google Obama's 200 lies that media/Obots refuse to acknowledge.
Please.
COUNTRY FIRST NOT EGO, McCAIN/PALIN.
HILLARY SUPPORTER FOR McCAIN before HE PICKED PALIN...EVEN BETTER NOW.

Posted by: Debra | Sep 15, 2008 12:28:39 PM

YOU HAVE TO START OFF LITTLE AND LEARN MORE EXPERIENCE AS YOU GO. YOU DONT JUST JUMP RIGHT INTO THE PRESIDENT'S SEAT AND THINK THAT YOU KNOW WHAT TO DO TO RUN THE USA WITHOUT THE PROPER EXPERIENCE.
-------------------
Funny stuff from the side that has chosen Palin as 2nd in command to a guy 72 years old and has had boughts with cancer.

Gotta love hypocrisy from the right.

McCain - graduated bottom of his class, admits he knows little about ECONOMICS, and has caved in to the right wing fringe of his party, and agreed with George Bush on every major policy issue for eight years. He "stood up to his party" and then changed his mind just to get votes. Yah, some "maverick".

Johnny "straight talk" sold out his integrity. He and his sidekick have been telling blatent lies to you. Even Carl Rove ackowledges this now. But you obviously don't care.

And Ms journalism degree, "my national security experience is I can see Russia from a remote island in Alaska"?????? THAT'S your idea of qualified?

Obama is a Harvard graduate with an emphasis on international relations. He is a US senator. He knows how to work with foreign heads of state. Biden is extremely knowledable of world affairs and the inner workings of Washington. He also has advanced degrees.

I'LL STILL TAKE THE SMART GUYS OVER GRUMPY OLD MAN AND THE PAGENT PRINCESS ANY DAY!

INTELLEGENCE OVER FAKE "EXPERIENCE".

Posted by: Reality Check Part 2 | Sep 15, 2008 12:37:03 PM

People who get their news only from their tv or newspapers don’t know what is really going on. And often youth think they can change the world, make a difference, and are easily fooled. I read way back that the horrible Bush/Cheney Energy Bill of 2005 that was quietly passed (which Obama voted for and Clinton and McCain voted against because it was totally irresponsible and threw billions of taxpayer dollars at big oil and energy and is partly why we are suffering now) is key to this election. The ones who control MSM are the ones who profited from that legislation, and who stand to profit from putting bo in office. The DNC chose Obama because they thought he could bring in the youth to strengthen the party for the long-term, and they could control him while at the same time use the Chicago style politics for “winning” elections and ensuring a continuous money flow.

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 15, 2008 12:43:07 PM

"The economy is showing signs of improvement"
John McCain - July 2008

Yep, there's a guy who really understands the situation.

I guess if your wife is a multi-millionare heiress, things always look optimistic.

John McCain, a man in touch with the people and their economic concerns.

Posted by: Reality Check Part 4 | Sep 15, 2008 12:57:51 PM

I wonder when the axe will fall on Biden. Baby cakes bo is going to find the guts to get Hillary on his ticket. He needs her badly!!!
I hear it will be soon very, very soon.........

Posted by: HP Boston | Sep 15, 2008 1:04:07 PM

Washington's elite socialist got exactly what they wanted -- an ultra liberal who wants to run individuals lives from DC.

And, they got a dud. People do not want every aspect of their lives managed for themselves by someone else.

Obama - wrong person at the wrong time!

Posted by: dl | Sep 15, 2008 1:29:58 PM

Obama tells his followers he wants US troops out of Iraq now but tries to make deal with that country's leaders to stall the exit.

Read all about it!

http://www.nypost.com/seven/09152008/postopinion/opedcolumnists/obama_tried_to_stall_gis_iraq_withdrawal_129150.htm?page=0

Posted by: Xtra Xtra, read all about it | Sep 15, 2008 1:32:07 PM

Christopher Alleva ...


Buried all the way on page C4 of the Metro section the Washington Post reported yesterday on a rally Saturday. The rally was so sparsely attended the best the photographer could come up with was a picture of an Obama cardboard cutout in front of the Lincoln memorial with a lone supporter decked out with a crude pre-printed paper campaign sign on their back. Sunday tourists on the mall vastly out-numbered the Obama faithful.

Evidently, the Post is trying to downplay this less-than-rousing display enthusiasm for the "one." Ironically, the very same day, Ombudsmen Deborah Howell tackled complaints that the wildly successful McCain-Palin rally in Fairfax Virginia last Thursday was relegated to the Metro section, whereas an Obama rally in June (attended by less than half the number at the McCain event) was given front page

Howell gave readers the standard editor's "front page space excuse."

Tim Graham at Newsbusters is not buying it.

I did learn on thing from the Posts' pathetic coverage of this pathetic rally: Obama's supporters may want to seek help somewhere. Governor Palin is driving them batty.


Posted by: Xtra Xtra, read all about it | Sep 15, 2008 1:54:07 PM

Jennifer Rubin ...

Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac survived scrutiny by manipulating, cajoling, and lobbying politicians and hiring board members who were politicos (e.g. Jamie Gorelick) rather than mortgage gurus. They hired lobbyists, gave massive donations, obtained nice tax breaks, and sailed below the regulatory radar screen.

Of the 354 lawmakers who received money from Freddie and Fannie between 1989 and 2008, Sen. Chris Dodd received the most. But next was . . . drumroll . . . Barack Obama. Yup. And he was only there for three years. Not too much went to John McCain, about a sixth of what Obama received (h/t Glenn Reynolds.)

But, you say, maybe all the Fannie and Freddie employees who gave money just “liked” Obama. That might make sense with ordinary institutions. But these two had a game plan to influence and sway lawmakers for the purpose of keeping them on the government gravy train and out of the regulatory line of fire. It’s no coincidence that they “liked” Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd best of all.

So it would appear that this is precisely what Obama has been railing against: Washington insiders lining the pockets of other Washington insiders while the taxpayers ultimately have to foot the bill. The Agent of Change, it seems, didn’t exactly walk the walk on this one.

Posted by: Xtra Xtra, read all about it | Sep 15, 2008 2:03:18 PM

If you are interested in what Matthew Dowd has to say about the Presidency, come join us the evening of September 27, at the Bushnell Theater in Hartford! Elizabeth Edwards and Joseph Ellis will be joining us as well to discuss the 2008 presidential candidates and campaigns!

Posted by: Connecticut Forum | Sep 15, 2008 3:24:05 PM

DOWD, are you getting paid by this left wing,liberal organization. I thought so. Seriously Obama is falling because no one knows who he is or what he has to stood for. 143 days in the senate and a community organizer who has ties to terriorists and Rev's who hate the country and whites for that matter. His wife who actually took 43 years to be proud of her country, could look back and see that if she lived in the homeland would not have made it to college. So tell her to go back to where her family heritage is from and see if it is better then where she is now.

Posted by: gomac | Sep 15, 2008 3:36:10 PM

Wow, seems like a lot of GOP garbage to me.The election really comes down to whether you want a continuation of the last 8 years of Republican rule or want to see if the Democrats can do a better job of governing.Personally, I don't see how the Dems could do anything but improve on the last 8 years of middle class neglect and misery.

Posted by: bill | Sep 15, 2008 3:38:40 PM

Wonder if it is true that the actual candidate that bumps off mutual opponent, he wins in November regardless of issues and poll numbers?

Apparently this mutual opponent is wealthy, exposed corruption within both parties and is presently targeted.

The question is how?

Will GOP use Guiliani-like mob ties like the way his protege ex-NYPD commissioner did and may be jailed up to 140 years? Or solicit Gotti, Jr. whose conspiracy and murder trial starts tomorrow?

Will Dems use an OJ Simpson-like, black convict with jail time? Coincidentally his kidnap and robbery charge trial starts the same time too.

Will the parties employ the popular law enforcement practice of 'sweetheart exchange deals' where convict commit crime/murder in exchange for less jail time, conveniently covered up and real culprits not publicly suspected?

Should we worry about our personal safety too as we share this information? For example, should my husband worry about physical safety during his routine of jogging after work in the Hackensack/Bogota, NJ areas at 4pm today as our habits and plans are known in advanced via bugging device devices in both private and public places?

Posted by: francine223 | Sep 15, 2008 3:47:02 PM

Wonder if it is true that the actual candidate that bumps off mutual opponent, he wins in November regardless of issues and poll numbers?

Apparently this mutual opponent is wealthy, exposed corruption within both parties and is presently targeted.

The question is how?

Will GOP use Guiliani-like mob ties like the way his protege ex-NYPD commissioner did and may be jailed up to 140 years? Or solicit Gotti, Jr. whose conspiracy and murder trial starts tomorrow? Is infamous VP Cheney behind the orchestration of this?

Will Dems use an OJ Simpson-like, black convict with jail time? Coincidentally his kidnap and robbery charge trial starts the same time too.

Will the parties employ the popular law enforcement practice of 'sweetheart exchange deals' where convict commit crime/murder in exchange for less jail time, conveniently covered up and real culprits not publicly suspected?

Should we worry about our personal safety too as we share this information? For example, should my husband worry about physical safety during his routine of jogging after work in the Hackensack/Bogota, NJ areas at 4pm today as our habits and plans are known in advanced via bugging device devices in both private and public places?

Posted by: francine223 | Sep 15, 2008 4:15:17 PM

The US presidential election is not really a national election but 50 separate local ones. And on that front, even after the conventions Obama is in a commanding position. Obama needs 18 electoral college votes – more than John Kerry – to win. According to pollster.com there is not a single state that Kerry won where McCain is ahead. Conversely, there are two that Bush won – Iowa and New Mexico – where Obama maintains a commanding lead. That's 12 electoral votes.

In other words, Obama is fighting this election entirely on McCain's territory. McCain is struggling to defend what he has. If they split those toss-ups even 80-20 in McCains' favour he still loses the election.


What it does mean is that the people who should really be panicking – and who clearly really are panicking because otherwise they wouldn't have picked Sarah Palin as a vice-presidential nominee – are the Republicans.

Posted by: princess9681 | Sep 15, 2008 5:12:14 PM

But finally, and most importantly, the polls that really matter are not the national but the state polls. The US presidential election is not really a national election but 50 separate local ones. And on that front, even after the conventions Obama is in a commanding position. Obama needs 18 electoral college votes – more than John Kerry – to win. According to pollster.com there is not a single state that Kerry won where McCain is ahead. Conversely, there are two that Bush won – Iowa and New Mexico – where Obama maintains a commanding lead. That's 12 electoral votes.

In other words, Obama is fighting this election entirely on McCain's territory. McCain is struggling to defend what he has. If they split those toss-ups even 80-20 in McCains' favour he still loses the election.


In any case, there's a while to go before election day and it is perfectly possible that Obama will lose each roll of the dice. But it's unlikely. What it does mean is that the people who should really be panicking – and who clearly really are panicking because otherwise they wouldn't have picked Sarah Palin as a vice-presidential nominee – are the Republicans. I know

Posted by: princess9681 | Sep 15, 2008 5:12:51 PM

Hey NoBama, how about you turn off the caps lock key and actually focus on the issues at hand? The fact is, McCain has no ideas to jump start this economy and is simply more of the failed Bush policies. Look at his lying ads and tell me if he has something new to offer? If he did, he would be telling the American public about it, not lying about his opponent. Obama may by young (don't equate that to inexperience - he has a wealth of life experience), but at least he has new and good ideas on how to move this country forward instead of living in the past.

Posted by: will Cosgrove | Sep 15, 2008 5:58:38 PM

Nobama is upset McCain is more of a CHANGE agent then him....and they have used that word to describe McCAIN/PALIN AS CHANGE.
So I see today at a rally Obama has a banner with COUNTRY FIRST, McCain's slogan....very funny as we all know that Nobama's slogan is EGO FIRST.

Posted by: Debra | Sep 15, 2008 6:11:46 PM

Let's face it .. OBAMA COULD CARE LESS ABOUT CHANGE as shown by his record of the last 10 years ... NOT A SINGLE REFORM but 2 MEMOirs INSTEAD.

SO WHO IS OBAMA TO TALK ABOUT CHANGE WHEN HIS RECORD SHOWS HE HAS NOT BROUGHT ABOUT ANY CHANGE ANYWHERE ANYTIME FOR THE LAST 10 YEARS ..

PALIN, ON THE OTHER HAND, IS A GOVERNOR WITH A 80% APPROVAL RATING WHO HAS BROUGHT ABOUT CHANGE WHERE SHE IS ...

OBAMA, YOU DONT NEED TO BE PRESIDENT TO BRING CHANGE .. GO BACK TO ILLINOIS AND LET US SEE YOU BRING CHANGE THERE ..

BUT WE KNOW YOU ARE JUST USING THE CHANGE THEME TO PROMOTE YOUR CAREER ... YOU CARE LESS ABOUT BRINGING CHANGE TO WASHINGTON OR ANYWHERE ELSE FOR THAT MATTER ...

OBAMA, WE ARE NOT THAT STUPID AS TO THINK THAT YOU ARE A REAL CHANGE AGENT ... YOU ARE THE BIGGEST POLITICAL FRAUD WHO HAS DESCENDED UPON AMERICAN POLITICS ... AND A SCARY ONE AT THAT ...

GO BACK TO ILLINOIS!!!

USING CHANGE TO PROMOTE YOUR CAREER IS NOT A NOBLE THING ...

Posted by: GOBACKTO ILLINOIS | Sep 15, 2008 8:00:59 PM

JUST SO EVERYBODY ON HERE KNOWS I AM A FULL BLODDED DEMOCRAT AND ALSO FOR YOU ALL ON HERE, I DO NOT WANT OBAMA FOR THE PRESIDENT AND I SURELY DO NOT WANT MCCAIN FOR THE PRESIDENT. I WISHED THAT HILLARY WAS GOING TO BE THE PRESIDENT TRUTHFULLY. THAT IS WHO I VOTED FOR, FOR THE PRIMARIES.

DONT WANT OBAMA BECAUSE A CHANGE WILL BE MADE BUT NOT FOR THE MIDDLE AND LOWER CLASS JUST A CHANGE TO RAISE THE TAXES AND MAKE US MORE POORER THAN WHAT WE ALREADY ARE AND HE WILL MAKE THE RICH AND HIGH CLASS RICHER THAN WHAT THEY ALREADY ARE.

DONT WANT MCCAIN BECAUSE MCCAIN IS IDENTICAL TO BUSH HE IS A REPUBLICAN, AND THEY ARE ONLY FOR THE RICH PEOPLE.

SO YOU ALL KNOW I WILL NOT BE VOTING THIS NOVEMBER BECAUSE BOTH OF THE CANDIDATES ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH IN MY EYES TO BRING INTO OUR WHITE HOUSE.

Posted by: NO OBAMA | Sep 16, 2008 11:40:32 AM

AND THE STUFF THAT I STATED ON THIS BLOG WAS STATING THAT OBAMA DOES NOT HAVE ENOUGH EXPERIENCE ONLY 143 DAYS OF SENATE EXPERIENCE HOW COULD HE RUN THIS WHOLE COUNTRY WITH ONLY THAT LITTLE OF EXPERIENCE????

I DONT KNOW WHY PEOPLE ON HERE THINK THAT I WAS TALKING ABOUT MCCAIN. IF YOU ALL ARE SO INTELIGENT LIKE YOU PEOPLE ON HERE PUT ON TO BE THAN EVERYBODY ON HERE WOULD KNOW WHO I WAS TALKING ABOUT TO BEGIN WITH AND WOULD NOT OF PUT RUDE COMMENTS ON HERE REPLYING BACK TO MY COMMENTS.

YES I WILL KEEP MY CAPS LOCK ON BECAUSE I LIKE FOR PEOPLE TO READ WHAT I HAVE TO SAY AND IF THEY WANT TO LOOK BACK ON WHAT I HAD TO SAY THEY CAN FIND IT A LOT FASTER BECAUSE OF THE CAPS LOCK ON.

IF YOU DONT LIKE IT, YOU DONT HAVE TO READ IT THEN, GET OFF THE PAGE. EASY AS THAT.

Posted by: (NO OBAMA & HELLO) | Sep 16, 2008 11:44:54 AM

obama will make the change alright. that change will be that the white people will become minority and he will make sure that the blacks become majority. just watch and see because that is how it will be because that is how all the blacks are, one gets in and before you know it the whites are pushed out and the blacks have taken over. blacks dont like our country never have and never will, they dont appreciate it at all. because of our ancestors had them shipped over here to be our slaves. big deal that is way done and over with. get over it and move on. is it like that today NO it is not. but i believe it should be. our usa would be a better place if we just shipped all the blacks and inbreds back to africa.

Posted by: WHITE POWER | Sep 16, 2008 11:50:21 AM

Why is it that 8 productive years in the Illinois state senate is not considered experience? 12 years as a Professor of constitional law? A short but already solid tenure in the U.S. Senate? He has the experience and the intellect. Nothing seems to scare these folks like intellect. Unlike his opponent he is not the child of privilege. He earned his way into an elite school he wasn't carried there as his rival was. Obama fought the odds all the way to the top of his class and was graceful in his understanding of the struggles on both sides of some of our society's thorniest issues. While I have no doubt McCain is an okay guy let's face it his record is one of a guy who was, as they say, "born on third base and thinks he hit a triple." Until that horrible day when he was shot down and imprisoned McCain had always seriously underperformed. I won't even bother recounting his abysmal record at the Academy and later as a pilot.(a job he kept way beyond all reason.) Obama knows what it is to earn his way on to the national stage. The way he has continued to try and stay above the level of discourse offered by the McCain Klan is simply amazing. How he contains himself is wonderful.

RE: Some of the posts above.
The level of racism makes me ill. These knuckledraggers are the reason this economy is teetering on the edge and if they get their way we are doomed to 4 more years of failed policies and loss of stature on the international scene. Certainly Mr. Dowd is smart enough not to vote to put someone as callow as Ms. Palin in a position to inherit the most powerful office in the world. If not...then he has made the deal of party over country and that is cynical. You share a place with white power, no obama, hello, and the other sad little people who impotently spew out proven lies to buttress age-old prejudices. It is even sadder that people who know better out of habit or fear or prejudice join the haters. Poor Mr. McCain and Ms.P issued a new ad today leading with the now widely recognized lie about the bridge to nowhere. What happend to the high road? I hope that Mr. Obama will now just tell the truth about McCain. The Keating 5 Use McCain's own words nothing more. Mention that he of the legendary temper called his wife a word I wouldn't use period. He is an admitted philander, which is no big deal really except that he cheated on then left his disfigured wife who had stood beside him through the only time in his life when family's name and status wouldn't save him. After the rehab was over and the nightmares subsided he split for the younger, richer(though not by much) current Mrs. McCain. Not to mention his politacal views which seem to be extremely flexible. I realize that all candidates will move toward what they consider their constituency's positions to be. But a candidate should also stand for something on their own and this is a test that McCain fails totally. SAVE AMERICA VOTE OBAMA!!!

Posted by: Lincster | Sep 17, 2008 10:29:06 PM

lincster:

you go ahead and vote for obama all you want, FAILURE is what you will have in return.

Posted by: WHITE SUPREMACY | Sep 18, 2008 10:57:24 AM

This is a plea to the media to keep Obama's values, his character and his past experience to the forefront of covering this election.

How the heck is anyone encouraging anyone that loves this country to vote for Obama.
I can't find any reason to do so.

The media ought to keep his past experience as community organizer and one year as a Senator one focus.

The other focus should be on his past relationships with William Ayers the domestic terrorist, Reverend Wright who supports the anti Semetic, Louis Farrakhan, Tony Rezko the criminal and the Nation of Islam members that had a rally in Chicago just a few months ago.

If McCain had these references in his resume, would you hire him for this job.

The media should get with it. Keep bringing all these issues up for the people that missed it in the primary season.

Please help our country.

Thanks.

Posted by: Al from NJ | Sep 19, 2008 8:29:55 AM

AL FROM NJ:

I AGREE WITH YOU 100% ON WHAT YOU JUST STATED.

WE NEED TO KNOW EVERYTHING ABOUT EVERYONE THAT IS RUNNING FOR THE PRESIDENT OF OUR USA. WE SURELY DONT NEED A LOW LIFE TO BE IN OUR WHITE HOUSE.

NOSTRADAMUS ALREADY PREDICTED WHAT WILL HAPPEN TO OUR COUNTRY WHEN OBAMA GETS IN, SO LETS CHANGE OUR COUNTRY'S DESTINY AHEAD OF TIME SO IT DONT COME TO WHAT HE HAS ALREADY PREDICTED.

DONT VOTE OBAMA.

Posted by: WHITE SUPREMACY | Sep 19, 2008 11:00:59 AM

Insanity is defined as doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results. Twice in the last 8 years the American people have allowed the Republicans to steal presidential elections; and, as a consequence, this country is in the worst shape it's ever been in since the Great Depression (which was also caused by Republican policies). Now, how can anyone with an once of intellect believe that electing another Republican administration will somehow result in something different than what we've seen in the last 8 years. One has to be insane to believe that something different will happen by doing the same thing. Think about it people. This is our last chance to get it right. If we don't, the destruction of the United States started by the Bush administration will be finished by the Palin/McCain administration. Obama/Biden 2008!!!

Posted by: caliguy55 | Sep 22, 2008 1:04:02 PM

I feel that both the presidential nominees are not good enough for our USA.
I will not cast my vote this year.

NO OBAMA for 2008
NO MCCAIN for 2008

Posted by: PRESIDENTLESS | Sep 23, 2008 12:54:34 PM

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