Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Dowd: Top Five Reasons McCain Will Likely Lose

October 27, 2008 10:03 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

So, we have a little over a week left in this campaign, and hundreds of thousands of people have already voted, and at this point it looks like Obama will win unless something catastrophic happens (probably has to be a major mistake on his part).

And there has been a ton of discussion recently about why McCain is probably going to lose.  I want to add my two cents to that discussion because it is a bit different than others, and being statistic oriented I am going to give each factor a percentage of what it represents as a cause of that likely loss.

Here are the top five Dowd factors of a McCain loss:

1. Political Environment: 60% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

We have an incumbent president with the lowest job approval ratings in modern times –- lower than Nixon as he was pushed from office because of Watergate. 

In addition, nearly 90-percent of the country thinks things are on the wrong track. This all has given Democrats a generic ballot lead of double digits. (Generic ballot is when you have no names just party and ask who the country wants in office).   

This wave would be hard for anyone to stop. 

That is why the equilibrium of this race has always been one with Obama with a three or four point lead. The last couple of weeks has merely moved Obama's lead closer to the generic ballot number.

2. Brand Damage: 20% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

Sen. McCain, over the course of the last few years, has damaged his original brand of an independent maverick who would throw the flag on either side of the field. The seeds of this brand damage were sown years ago as McCain coddled up to the religious right and President Bush. 

And that damage was exacerbated in how his campaign has been conducted over the last few months –- negative attacks voters could care less about and emphasizing issues about which only conservatives seemed to care.

3. Palin Pick: 10% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

The Palin pick for vice president made McCain look like a total political opportunist as the American public came to the conclusion that she was unqualified for this office. 

In addition, swing and moderate voters were put off by her views on many issues and her personal attacks on the Democratic ticket.

4. Debates: 7% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

It is very unusual for one ticket to win every single debate. According to polling and most focus groups, Obama won all three presidential debates and Biden overwhelmingly bested Palin.

McCain, when the debates were done, had no more opportunities in a big way to address a large audience. The Democrats won the debates in a substantive way, but more importantly, temperament was highlighted, which hurt McCain.

5. Financial Meltdown: 3% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

The collapse of Wall Street put the economy front and center, and the way McCain handled the challenge didn't make voters feel warm and fuzzy. 

Keep in mind: before this happened, the economy was already the number one issue –- it just became even more important because of the mess. 

Remember, Obama was already rising back in the polls after the initial Palin/Republican National Convention bump wore off. 

I know this is a very simplistic explanation; I'm sure there are other factors, but these are my top five reasons why John McCain is likely not to be moving into a new house in January.

October 27, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (265)

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My opinion of why McCain is going to loose. Goerge Bush and SARA PALIN. He might have been able to over come Bush but Dang it, choosing her was just stupid.

Posted by: Jenny Rome Ga | Oct 27, 2008 10:33:12 AM

Well in less than 8 days there will be another President no matter who wins. As for me, I’ve voted for Obama. It’s picking the better of two evils. Yes he says this and his says that, and I do believe that he does want change. But on any platform, he is a politician. So is McCain.

I see it this like this, see if you can relate;

For the past 8 years we have been going to the Company (America) Christmas Party and being served the same old dry chicken dinner. At first it was ok and free. The company paid for me and my guest. Then after 4 years they asked that I pay to attend the party (and for my guest) due to increase costs of food and entertainment going up (Wall St). So, I Pre-paid to attend the party. But, when my guest and I got to the door, I was told that it was going to cost me $200.00 more per person to attend. I had to pay it. After all, it’s my company (America) I work for.
Now, there is a chance for a change in Upper Management. This change in Upper Management is changing the menu and the entertainment line-up. No more dry chicken. They are offering an open buffet. The cost is a bit high, but after 8 years of the same ol’ same ol’, I’m open to being feed something different.

Change is coming, one way or the other. The same ol’ some ol’ but paying MUCH more, or something totally different.

See you at the next Company Christmas Party.

Posted by: NIA-New Mexico | Oct 27, 2008 10:34:52 AM

It's also been proven that voters think that 72 is too OLD to be an effective president.

Posted by: pt | Oct 27, 2008 10:37:08 AM

Biggest reason: Bias in media.
The media and their relentless assault on McCain and Palin. Reporting everything negative, even rumors. An example is the "kill him" comment. The Secret Service said it was bogus and did not happen. A single 'reporter' claimed it did and all the media ran with it as gospel. Did they correct the record? Nope. They loved the damage done and left it at that.
Enter Sarah Palin. The media immediately hated her. She didn't even finish her speech at the convention and they were trashing her. Since the convention, it has been all negative all the time. Has Sarah Palin done anything in her life that was good? Not according to the media.
Is it the same with Barack Obama? Not by a mile. Look at the headlines at any news website. Count the negative stories towards McCain, and count the positive towards Obama. Not a single story that reflects bad towards Obama.

Posted by: On to it | Oct 27, 2008 10:37:59 AM

I just had a thought...In eight days this will be all over, and hopefully, if Americans do their research and vote for Obama...

We will never have to hear Palin's sarcastic whiney voice ever again.

That is enough to get my vote. HAHAHA

Posted by: MyBrainReallyHurts | Oct 27, 2008 10:38:00 AM

On to it - Isnt this the same liberal media that got Bush elected TWICE?

The media has nothing to do with it. If McCain had picked a better running mate, the race would be much, much closer today.

Posted by: MyBrainReallyHurts | Oct 27, 2008 10:39:01 AM


Please tell me is it really going to be over in 8 more days?..Really?..Oh god I hope so!....

Go MCrage!

Posted by: Roc | Oct 27, 2008 10:45:03 AM

You underestimate the role the pick of Palin will play in his loss (combined w/ concerns about his age). She inspires no confidence among anyone but the hard-core (& shrinking) republican base. I'd put the pick of her up at near 40%.

Posted by: dem in chicago | Oct 27, 2008 10:47:00 AM

Nov 4 will be a castrastophic event for Obama. Americans are actually going to vote instead of the media.

Posted by: geevill | Oct 27, 2008 10:48:06 AM

Reason Number 6: No wants a liar in the White House especially after 8 yrs of lies.
McCain has repeated lied and exaggerated during the course of this campaign.
And his attack dog with lipstick is an even bigger liar than McCain is not to mention a complete ditz.

Posted by: con me not | Oct 27, 2008 10:51:51 AM

In a videotaped interview with Barack Obama on Chicago Public Radio WBEZ FM, in 2001, Obama explains the "tragedy" that the civil rights movement did not result in the 'redistribution of wealth'. Primarily, the redistribution of wealth to 'community organizers' and others that could bring about change in the political system.

Obama talks openly about breaking free of the “constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the Constitution” and in so doing, achieve “social justice” through “redistributive change.”

Posted by: con me notgood | Oct 27, 2008 10:58:25 AM

I keep hearing/reading that Obama is a pretty sure bet of winning on November 4th (I hope so). Why is it then that when you look at the polls, Obama and McCain are now running 50/50?? I know polls are polls, but why do MSN, CNN, ABC, and Politico show them as being so close. Where's Obama's lead?

Posted by: Debbie, SC | Oct 27, 2008 10:59:09 AM

geevill: "Nov 4 will be a castrastophic event for Obama. Americans are actually going to vote instead of the media.".....We have heard nothing but media spin for 2 years....when America does speak it may surprise many....especially Obama. If/when he looses we will have to endless media BS on the prejudice of America. If/when he wins we will hear endlessly from the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton on how he should run America. To all those that think America is an unhappy place....you ain't seen nothing yet. Obama being lead around by the nose by Pelosie and Reid will trash America....think I'm wrong...read history. Presidents whose party have control of both Houses will not stop them from anything they want to do. Anything they send to him he WILL sign...ANYTHING. He doesn't have the desire or backbone to do otherwise regardless of how bad it will be for the country.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:04:26 AM

Biden promises a war in 6 months.
So you might want to get ready for the draft and martial law.
Buy dried beans.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:06:03 AM

Past is prologue.
Why doesn't Dowd say that Obama who has to take an oath before taking office on our Constitution of which he doesn't believe in? And that ABC is not reporting!

Posted by: john g. | Oct 27, 2008 11:08:13 AM

It's curious to me why McCain's supporters blame the media for his decline in the polls. McCain has failed to run a campaign worthy of his reputation. Don't blame the media, blame the man. This campaign is McCain's responsibility and he blew it.

Posted by: MJ Parlier | Oct 27, 2008 11:08:14 AM

MyBrain:

You think that the liberal media elected Bush twice? Where were you then?
It was the democrats (Kerry) and the media that tried to do the same thing that was done durring the vietnam war. They tried to go in a antiwar/anti troop way and the country would not tolerate it. The hippy way of the sixties are dead. We have an all volunteer armed services that are damn proud to do their job with honor.
The media and democrats realized that their 'hate the troops' campaign wasn't going anywhere, so they changed their message to 'support the troops, hate the mission', a bunch of b.s. The democrats and the media were wishing we lose the war. They still do. Why would they wish such a thing? Because they equate a victory in war is a victory for Bush. They hate Bush so much that they would rather lose than to give an ounce of credit to the man. Wishing for America to burn over bitter politics isn't patriotic.
The media and the democrats dug their hole last election and lost.

Posted by: On to it | Oct 27, 2008 11:09:01 AM

Debbie, SC: "I keep hearing/reading that Obama is a pretty sure bet of winning on November 4th (I hope so)."...the reason the polls are tightening up is because the media has lied to you for over a year. This has always been closer than they said it would be but they were trying to demoralize the right. Now that it's getting closer to the day of truth they need to make it more correct because if they predict a 20 point win and LOSE then their credibility is shot and they get exposed as being propogandists instead of the prefered label of journalist.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:09:29 AM

OBAMA HAS BEEN CONSISTANT WITH HIS CAMPAIGN SINCE THE BEGINNING---MCCAIN HAS FLIP FLOPED ALL OVER THE AND HAS NO REAL PLATFORM-----VOTED ALONG WITH BUSH OVER 90%--AND NOW CLAIMS HE IS NOT BUSH---IS HE NOW PALIN --REALLY WHO KNOWS
GOODBYE MCCAIN
VOTE FOR OBAMA

Posted by: rodney | Oct 27, 2008 11:13:59 AM

Indoctrination of college students needs to end. We all know that college professors are flaming 'hate America' liberals. That is no excuse for them to brainwash their students into braindead liberals. They may claim to be liberals while they are ignorant in school. When they graduate, buy a home and enter the workforce they will mostly become conservative filled with regret about their foolish liberal ideals. Funny how things work. But it is the college kids that damage areas and cities that wouldn't normally be liberal. They vote in their college towns causing some major damage to the tax payers that are permanent residents of those towns.

It is a known fact that the democrats want to block the military votes. Remember the 2004 election. How about we block all college students then.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:21:10 AM

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