Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Dowd: Top Five Reasons McCain Will Likely Lose

October 27, 2008 10:03 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

So, we have a little over a week left in this campaign, and hundreds of thousands of people have already voted, and at this point it looks like Obama will win unless something catastrophic happens (probably has to be a major mistake on his part).

And there has been a ton of discussion recently about why McCain is probably going to lose.  I want to add my two cents to that discussion because it is a bit different than others, and being statistic oriented I am going to give each factor a percentage of what it represents as a cause of that likely loss.

Here are the top five Dowd factors of a McCain loss:

1. Political Environment: 60% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

We have an incumbent president with the lowest job approval ratings in modern times –- lower than Nixon as he was pushed from office because of Watergate. 

In addition, nearly 90-percent of the country thinks things are on the wrong track. This all has given Democrats a generic ballot lead of double digits. (Generic ballot is when you have no names just party and ask who the country wants in office).   

This wave would be hard for anyone to stop. 

That is why the equilibrium of this race has always been one with Obama with a three or four point lead. The last couple of weeks has merely moved Obama's lead closer to the generic ballot number.

2. Brand Damage: 20% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

Sen. McCain, over the course of the last few years, has damaged his original brand of an independent maverick who would throw the flag on either side of the field. The seeds of this brand damage were sown years ago as McCain coddled up to the religious right and President Bush. 

And that damage was exacerbated in how his campaign has been conducted over the last few months –- negative attacks voters could care less about and emphasizing issues about which only conservatives seemed to care.

3. Palin Pick: 10% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

The Palin pick for vice president made McCain look like a total political opportunist as the American public came to the conclusion that she was unqualified for this office. 

In addition, swing and moderate voters were put off by her views on many issues and her personal attacks on the Democratic ticket.

4. Debates: 7% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

It is very unusual for one ticket to win every single debate. According to polling and most focus groups, Obama won all three presidential debates and Biden overwhelmingly bested Palin.

McCain, when the debates were done, had no more opportunities in a big way to address a large audience. The Democrats won the debates in a substantive way, but more importantly, temperament was highlighted, which hurt McCain.

5. Financial Meltdown: 3% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

The collapse of Wall Street put the economy front and center, and the way McCain handled the challenge didn't make voters feel warm and fuzzy. 

Keep in mind: before this happened, the economy was already the number one issue –- it just became even more important because of the mess. 

Remember, Obama was already rising back in the polls after the initial Palin/Republican National Convention bump wore off. 

I know this is a very simplistic explanation; I'm sure there are other factors, but these are my top five reasons why John McCain is likely not to be moving into a new house in January.

October 27, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (265)

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My opinion of why McCain is going to loose. Goerge Bush and SARA PALIN. He might have been able to over come Bush but Dang it, choosing her was just stupid.

Posted by: Jenny Rome Ga | Oct 27, 2008 10:33:12 AM

Well in less than 8 days there will be another President no matter who wins. As for me, I’ve voted for Obama. It’s picking the better of two evils. Yes he says this and his says that, and I do believe that he does want change. But on any platform, he is a politician. So is McCain.

I see it this like this, see if you can relate;

For the past 8 years we have been going to the Company (America) Christmas Party and being served the same old dry chicken dinner. At first it was ok and free. The company paid for me and my guest. Then after 4 years they asked that I pay to attend the party (and for my guest) due to increase costs of food and entertainment going up (Wall St). So, I Pre-paid to attend the party. But, when my guest and I got to the door, I was told that it was going to cost me $200.00 more per person to attend. I had to pay it. After all, it’s my company (America) I work for.
Now, there is a chance for a change in Upper Management. This change in Upper Management is changing the menu and the entertainment line-up. No more dry chicken. They are offering an open buffet. The cost is a bit high, but after 8 years of the same ol’ same ol’, I’m open to being feed something different.

Change is coming, one way or the other. The same ol’ some ol’ but paying MUCH more, or something totally different.

See you at the next Company Christmas Party.

Posted by: NIA-New Mexico | Oct 27, 2008 10:34:52 AM

It's also been proven that voters think that 72 is too OLD to be an effective president.

Posted by: pt | Oct 27, 2008 10:37:08 AM

Biggest reason: Bias in media.
The media and their relentless assault on McCain and Palin. Reporting everything negative, even rumors. An example is the "kill him" comment. The Secret Service said it was bogus and did not happen. A single 'reporter' claimed it did and all the media ran with it as gospel. Did they correct the record? Nope. They loved the damage done and left it at that.
Enter Sarah Palin. The media immediately hated her. She didn't even finish her speech at the convention and they were trashing her. Since the convention, it has been all negative all the time. Has Sarah Palin done anything in her life that was good? Not according to the media.
Is it the same with Barack Obama? Not by a mile. Look at the headlines at any news website. Count the negative stories towards McCain, and count the positive towards Obama. Not a single story that reflects bad towards Obama.

Posted by: On to it | Oct 27, 2008 10:37:59 AM

I just had a thought...In eight days this will be all over, and hopefully, if Americans do their research and vote for Obama...

We will never have to hear Palin's sarcastic whiney voice ever again.

That is enough to get my vote. HAHAHA

Posted by: MyBrainReallyHurts | Oct 27, 2008 10:38:00 AM

On to it - Isnt this the same liberal media that got Bush elected TWICE?

The media has nothing to do with it. If McCain had picked a better running mate, the race would be much, much closer today.

Posted by: MyBrainReallyHurts | Oct 27, 2008 10:39:01 AM


Please tell me is it really going to be over in 8 more days?..Really?..Oh god I hope so!....

Go MCrage!

Posted by: Roc | Oct 27, 2008 10:45:03 AM

You underestimate the role the pick of Palin will play in his loss (combined w/ concerns about his age). She inspires no confidence among anyone but the hard-core (& shrinking) republican base. I'd put the pick of her up at near 40%.

Posted by: dem in chicago | Oct 27, 2008 10:47:00 AM

Nov 4 will be a castrastophic event for Obama. Americans are actually going to vote instead of the media.

Posted by: geevill | Oct 27, 2008 10:48:06 AM

Reason Number 6: No wants a liar in the White House especially after 8 yrs of lies.
McCain has repeated lied and exaggerated during the course of this campaign.
And his attack dog with lipstick is an even bigger liar than McCain is not to mention a complete ditz.

Posted by: con me not | Oct 27, 2008 10:51:51 AM

In a videotaped interview with Barack Obama on Chicago Public Radio WBEZ FM, in 2001, Obama explains the "tragedy" that the civil rights movement did not result in the 'redistribution of wealth'. Primarily, the redistribution of wealth to 'community organizers' and others that could bring about change in the political system.

Obama talks openly about breaking free of the “constraints that were placed by the founding fathers in the Constitution” and in so doing, achieve “social justice” through “redistributive change.”

Posted by: con me notgood | Oct 27, 2008 10:58:25 AM

I keep hearing/reading that Obama is a pretty sure bet of winning on November 4th (I hope so). Why is it then that when you look at the polls, Obama and McCain are now running 50/50?? I know polls are polls, but why do MSN, CNN, ABC, and Politico show them as being so close. Where's Obama's lead?

Posted by: Debbie, SC | Oct 27, 2008 10:59:09 AM

geevill: "Nov 4 will be a castrastophic event for Obama. Americans are actually going to vote instead of the media.".....We have heard nothing but media spin for 2 years....when America does speak it may surprise many....especially Obama. If/when he looses we will have to endless media BS on the prejudice of America. If/when he wins we will hear endlessly from the likes of Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton on how he should run America. To all those that think America is an unhappy place....you ain't seen nothing yet. Obama being lead around by the nose by Pelosie and Reid will trash America....think I'm wrong...read history. Presidents whose party have control of both Houses will not stop them from anything they want to do. Anything they send to him he WILL sign...ANYTHING. He doesn't have the desire or backbone to do otherwise regardless of how bad it will be for the country.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:04:26 AM

Biden promises a war in 6 months.
So you might want to get ready for the draft and martial law.
Buy dried beans.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:06:03 AM

Past is prologue.
Why doesn't Dowd say that Obama who has to take an oath before taking office on our Constitution of which he doesn't believe in? And that ABC is not reporting!

Posted by: john g. | Oct 27, 2008 11:08:13 AM

It's curious to me why McCain's supporters blame the media for his decline in the polls. McCain has failed to run a campaign worthy of his reputation. Don't blame the media, blame the man. This campaign is McCain's responsibility and he blew it.

Posted by: MJ Parlier | Oct 27, 2008 11:08:14 AM

MyBrain:

You think that the liberal media elected Bush twice? Where were you then?
It was the democrats (Kerry) and the media that tried to do the same thing that was done durring the vietnam war. They tried to go in a antiwar/anti troop way and the country would not tolerate it. The hippy way of the sixties are dead. We have an all volunteer armed services that are damn proud to do their job with honor.
The media and democrats realized that their 'hate the troops' campaign wasn't going anywhere, so they changed their message to 'support the troops, hate the mission', a bunch of b.s. The democrats and the media were wishing we lose the war. They still do. Why would they wish such a thing? Because they equate a victory in war is a victory for Bush. They hate Bush so much that they would rather lose than to give an ounce of credit to the man. Wishing for America to burn over bitter politics isn't patriotic.
The media and the democrats dug their hole last election and lost.

Posted by: On to it | Oct 27, 2008 11:09:01 AM

Debbie, SC: "I keep hearing/reading that Obama is a pretty sure bet of winning on November 4th (I hope so)."...the reason the polls are tightening up is because the media has lied to you for over a year. This has always been closer than they said it would be but they were trying to demoralize the right. Now that it's getting closer to the day of truth they need to make it more correct because if they predict a 20 point win and LOSE then their credibility is shot and they get exposed as being propogandists instead of the prefered label of journalist.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:09:29 AM

OBAMA HAS BEEN CONSISTANT WITH HIS CAMPAIGN SINCE THE BEGINNING---MCCAIN HAS FLIP FLOPED ALL OVER THE AND HAS NO REAL PLATFORM-----VOTED ALONG WITH BUSH OVER 90%--AND NOW CLAIMS HE IS NOT BUSH---IS HE NOW PALIN --REALLY WHO KNOWS
GOODBYE MCCAIN
VOTE FOR OBAMA

Posted by: rodney | Oct 27, 2008 11:13:59 AM

Indoctrination of college students needs to end. We all know that college professors are flaming 'hate America' liberals. That is no excuse for them to brainwash their students into braindead liberals. They may claim to be liberals while they are ignorant in school. When they graduate, buy a home and enter the workforce they will mostly become conservative filled with regret about their foolish liberal ideals. Funny how things work. But it is the college kids that damage areas and cities that wouldn't normally be liberal. They vote in their college towns causing some major damage to the tax payers that are permanent residents of those towns.

It is a known fact that the democrats want to block the military votes. Remember the 2004 election. How about we block all college students then.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:21:10 AM

Reason #6
A campaign run so poorly it begs to wonder how McCain would run an administration. He seems to let his advisors make decisions that should be his, like choosing a VP. On another note - Biden did not predict a war in 6 months and it is common knowledge any new president(dem or rep) will be challenged in his first year.

Posted by: Annie | Oct 27, 2008 11:21:36 AM

When we feel good about the world and the economy, we look for a leader we would like to have a beer with, when we don't, we look for a leader with the potential to provide clear, cool, steady, well-reasoned leadership. When you are sick, you look for a doctor who (you think) knows his stuff, not someone you could be buddy-buddy with.

Posted by: John | Oct 27, 2008 11:26:40 AM

McCain used the better part of these last two months on "Silly Season" topics. Lipstick on Pig, Ayers, ACORN, "Who is Obama?". Talk about great talking points. He and Palin used standard Republican talking points to attack and this time I think that many Americans this time just want our problems solved and we want to know who is solve them.

Posted by: Francheska | Oct 27, 2008 11:27:56 AM

The main reason McCain will lose this election is because I don't know if he has a rock for a brain or if he really just lack common sense. Picking Palin was the straw that broke the camel's back for me. McCain is more than old. He is elderly. Palin is more than ignorant, she is stupid. I know 10 year olds who are more of an intellectual than she is. McCain's judgement shows he is nothing more than an opportunist. Obama/Biden 08. It's time some adults get into the White House. No more idiots.

Posted by: Detour4 | Oct 27, 2008 11:28:43 AM

Annie: "and it is common knowledge any new president(dem or rep) will be challenged in his first year."....actually your "common knowledge" theroy is flawed. Those that would attack America already know the answer to such an attack if McCain were president and so would not inflame the issue more......Obama on the other hand would treat any attack as ANY Democrat would (with the exception of maybe Leiberman)and that would be to send in the FBI to investigate and to open lines of surrender to our enemies.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:29:04 AM

Tom are you talking about Faux News? I am so curious about how that crowd will react when it is a blowout...It seems to me that O'Reilly et al have been blowing smoke up their viewers backsides...I wonder after it is an Obama blowout if they are going to riot outside of Faux News HQ's demanding the New channel to actually report on the real news not the Republican talking points.

Posted by: Becky | Oct 27, 2008 11:29:48 AM

I think Obama will win Nov 4, just look at the alternative!! ;-)

Posted by: DeAndria | Oct 27, 2008 11:30:14 AM

A FOX NEWS poll Question of the Day under politics. It is still there if you would like to see it under
http://elections.foxnews.com/
~~~~~~~~~~
Which presidential candidate do you think would face an international crisis in his first year in office if elected?

John McCain 86%

Barack Obama 11%

Both candidates 1%

Neither candidate 2%
Total Voters:2037135

This is FAUX NEWS that has a poll saying this...so I believe it because FAUX news NEVER has anything good to say about Obama and if Obama WINS...Hannity is going to have a mjor heart attack on live television because he has a MAJOR Obama fixation. ;-)

Posted by: francheska ;-) | Oct 27, 2008 11:35:23 AM

John,

I fully agree with your comment: " It's curious to me why McCain's supporters blame the media for his decline in the polls. McCain has failed to run a campaign worthy of his reputation. Don't blame the media, blame the man". People are getting smarter, so is their jugdment and the media reflects this trend! Mccain is an arcaic man, with old ideias, and also hyprocite!I never forget the fact that he left his first wife, then crippled, with 3 kids, to marry the 18 years younger heiress. What an opportunist!

Posted by: Anna Brum | Oct 27, 2008 11:40:28 AM

On to it,

Get off of it!

McCain has had lots of news coverage of his negative strategy. Those hateful fans generated all kinds of free publicity for those who adhere to their philosophy.

Palin had a lot of good coverage too. She was shown in a very good light at first... until the truth started coming out. Her negative campaigning also continues to generate a lot of media coverage.

The trouble is, if all you base your campaign on is negativity, you really shouldn't be surprized if that's the kind of press it generates.

Posted by: Paul New man | Oct 27, 2008 11:40:57 AM

Becky, I am talking about ALL media outlets. To call Fox bias and not CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, as well as NY Times, Washington Post and LA times (just to name a few....shows just how clearly you have been fooled. Zogby, whose polls over the last few elections have shown to be the most accurate has this at a 4.5 point spread. Anything can happen here. If you think this is blow out then you have to ask some serious questions here, the biggest one is: Obama is out spending McCain almost 4 to one, the economy has taken a major slide, despite a changing war enviroment for the positive the public still wants out, major Bush fatigue, high food prices and gas prices....with all this going for him and Obama is only 4 to 8 points ahead...why? He should clearly be double digit and high double digit at that. There is something the media probably isn't telling you. Obmission is still a lie if done with intent. You may have been lied to.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:48:04 AM

Biden promises a war in 6 months. This will be the "crisis" Obama needs to impose draft and martial law.
Biden said "mark my words".

Alrighty then.

Buy dried beans and water purifiers.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:50:55 AM

I think that Obama might actually be doing better in the polls, but, the polls are being taken of people with landlines. I do not know anyone with a landline. All my friends have cell phones, so there is a huge segment of the popultation that is not being polled. My grandma has a landline, so maybe they are polling only old people. ;-)

Posted by: amaryee | Oct 27, 2008 11:52:16 AM

Dowd can't see the elephant in the room! The biggest reason, if there is a DNC win, is the overwhelming amount of time the media has focused on the DNC candidate and neglected to do their jobs on the other candidates who are running. It is incomprehensible that the under-qualified leftist-polarized DNC candidate manipulated the media into doing his bidding. Now that the media is controlled by the DNC, we have only ourselves to blame if we let this continue. Vote for McCain/Palin. The McCain ticket is one of the most moderate mainstream candidates in years, and McCain is much better prepared to lead on Day 1 and make progress with those moderate policies that Americans support.

Posted by: Jack | Oct 27, 2008 11:54:54 AM


Why does AOL straw polls with one ISP per vote, with on average 165,000 votes, refreshed every week, consistently have McCain by a landslide?

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:54:58 AM

francheska: "if Obama WINS...Hannity is going to have a mjor heart attack on live television because he has a MAJOR Obama fixation. ;-)"....LMAO.....you're kidding right....an Obama win makes him MONEY. It just gives him more things to talk about.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:55:13 AM


Tomorrow will ABC run an article that says the 5 reasons Obama could lose?

1 -- Ridiculous tax policy -- additional taxes to spread the wealth is not patriotic. This is a country with a foundation to support hard work and success -- not punish it. The DOW is in the toilet and Obama wants to increase capital gains tax. You don't have to be rich to be impacted by this -- no matter how little you have in the stock market you'll end up with less. There isn't enough time to go over the other impacts of his tax policy.

2 -- No experience -- sure Obama is a gifted speaker -- but every Obama supporter I know can't tell me what he has accomplished -- they just say, well I like what he says?

3 -- Not ready lead -- the Presidency isn't meant to be on the job training -- Biden said this in the primaries and recently said Obama will be tested because of his inexperience

4 -- Questionable relationships -- I'm not sure why people ignore this -- either Obama is clueless about the people he hangs out with or he enjoys hanging out with radicals -- pick your poison -- but it isn't just one person or one group -- there is a pattern here

5 -- The American people vote -- none of us know what will happen until Nov 4th -- when Americans can vote -- by secret ballot (would Obama like to eliminate that the same way he wants to do this for labor elections?)

Posted by: JJ | Oct 27, 2008 11:57:02 AM

Uh, Tom if Obama wins he will censor conservative media completely off the air within 6 weeks of inauguration. Radio and TV and Internet 2 is the new censored-filtered internet.
Bye bye freedom of speech.
And they will punish naysayers like Joe the Plumber who was "investigated" illegally.
Political Prisoners will be common under Obama/Biden.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:57:20 AM

Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America: Oh, believe me it will get ugly. The good news is the populace are armed. Any infringement on the popluation will not be tolerated. To those on the left that thinks the Patriot Act was intrucive have no idea what true scrapping of rights really is.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 12:03:27 PM

MCCAIN WAS "SONGBIRD" THE HANOI TRAITOR.

HE MADE 38 FILMS FOR THE NVA.

HE DID MORE TO HURT THE WAR EFFORT THAN 100 JANE FONDAS.

HE'S A FRAUD AND HAS BEEN HIS ENTIRE LIFE... FROM DUMPING HIS WIFE ON HER DEATHBED, THROUGH CINDY'S FAMILY MOB CONNEX, THROUGH THE KEATING FIVE, THROUGH DUMPING THE POW / MIAS, THROUGH "THE PALIEN".

THE MAN'S GOT NO MORALS.

HE'S TOAST.


Posted by: CHUCK | Oct 27, 2008 12:12:39 PM

About this 'redistribution of wealth' issue.
All the voices we hear criticizing this Obama's proposal come from the majority of voters, who make much, much less. Guys, let's face it. Most of those people will NEVER get to the point of making 250K.

My husband and I are now high paid professionals. We are immigrants, we came to this country well educated, but with no money, poor English, poor social skills. We both worked extremely hard to prove our education and get USA licenses. We do make more than 250K. And a lot of our friends as well.

What puzzles me in this 'redistribution of wealth' reaction, is why we never hear any complaints about this proposal from people like us? We are paying high taxes now, and we are ready to pay more, but we want Obama to be elected. What it is all about those complaints from people who have no chance to make this amount of money, whe are going to benefit from 'redistribution of wealth', but still cannot admit that Omama's economic plan is much more ... well, economic?

Posted by: E.K. | Oct 27, 2008 12:14:41 PM

E.K., What you don't seem to grasp is this is America. You got where you are from hard work and it's not the governments job to tell you that you make too much....regardless of what ever amount you make. Right now the top 10% of earners are flipping the tab for over 85% of the taxes paid. Taxing them more is morally wrong. If you think the taxes won't hit EVERYONE then you need to do some math. In a country of 375 million there are maybe only about 125 million actually working.....most under 250,000. He can not raise enough taxes from those making over 250,000 to pay for his 1.3 trillion increase in budget to pay for the programs he wants. That is an INCREASE in the budget...not the budget. EVERYBODY will get hit and hit hard.....I can hear the economy flushing already.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 12:25:08 PM

That $250K???
THAT IS FOR COUPLES
And with Medicare caps?
The huge tax increases start at only $97,000 for an individual.
Add in the fact that Obama will let lapse the Bush tax cuts, the National real estate tax, fuel tax, global tax, carbon tax, cap gains tax, dividend tax, and corporate double taxation and the tax hit starts at only $40K for an individual earner.
PLUS you will pay MUCH HIGHER COSTS. Fuel alone will go up 25%.
PLUS you will be losing your jobs to outsourcing like crazy.

Oh, and Biden predicts a war within 6 months. So buy dried beans, water purifiers, and maybe some salt.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 12:29:41 PM

Drudgereport.com front page has Obama's plans for REPARATIONS REDISTRIUTION OF WEALTH.
He will make reparations a "Civil Right"
He has said he will rewrite the Constitution.
Hell, he has no respect for it now, he won't even show his vault birth certificate. He just flew to Hawaii and had it sealed.

My question is: The military is sworn to defend the Constitution, NOT Obama. Seems he thinks he is he end all be all.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 12:32:37 PM

Interesting article . . . John McCain is appearing frail and just a little out of it of late - this only enhances concerns about Palin.

If the "media" would have been doing it's job, perhaps we would of found out just what her 'experience' is. Just what does is mean to be mayor of such a small town? And why no talk in the media about the natural gas pipeline she's pinned her hopes on but will never be built?

And why no discussion about what her children are witnessing at each and every rally? They're evidently getting their schooling by listening to the shouts from the crowds.

If anything the media has held back on looking too closely at Ms Palin just as it has avoided looking at McCain's questionable associations.

Posted by: Birkie | Oct 27, 2008 12:34:01 PM

I support Obama. However, I think the race would have been much closer if McCain ran an effective campaign and he chose a running mate who knew something (anything!) of national political importance. This could have been a much closer race, but thanks to the decisions by McCain it is not even close.

Posted by: Jim | Oct 27, 2008 12:34:59 PM

Birkie I cannot believe you justwrote "questionable associations" about McCain?
Please, do not insult every thinking person here.
If you do not know to which I refer, please research Ayers, Auchi, Odinga, Wright, Farrakhan, Cone, Kambon, and Obama's #1 influence Communist Frank Marshall Davis.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 12:37:31 PM

McCain needs to fully explain his questionable ties to:
Jim Hensley, Convicted Felon; G. Gordon Liddy, Convicted Felon; Charles Keating, Convicted Felon;
Raffaello Follieri, Convicted Felon; Rick Renzi, Under Indictment; Rick Well, to start with there is McCain's association with: Davis, Freddie Mac Lobbyist;Charles Black, Lobbyist for Dictators; Richard Quinn, White Supremist; Pastor John Hagee, Bigot;
Pastor Rod Parsley, Bigot; Todd Palin, Member of Secessionist Group; Andrew McCain, Resigned Manager Failed Savings and Loan; Rep. Rick Renzi (R-AZ) indicted for extortion, wire fraud, money laundering and other charges

Posted by: Birkie | Oct 27, 2008 12:50:54 PM

Can we please stop with the "liberal media" blame. The point of a presidential campaign is for everyone (including the public & the media) to critique all canidates involved. If any canidate is seen to be lacking in any area this will be circulated throughout the country with or without the "liberal media". In today's information age you can find an argument for any side you wish to take. Don't like the "liberal media" change the channel and be indoctrinated by Fox News. That's your choice. No one in gov't or media has control of your remote and has even less control of what you absorb with your senses. It's rediculous to think that after Republican rule for 8 years that suddenly the media has all-encompassing control of who gets voted into what office. What ever happened to may the best man (or woman) win. The best man is about to win and anyone who does accept that fact is as delusional as... well... A McCain supporter!

Posted by: The Truth | Oct 27, 2008 12:50:55 PM

Once again, we have to 'brace ourselves' fearing what method of deception will be used by the conservatives to steal this election. This time the Republican party has gone to far in its attempt to divide the country further. It will not work because history is on the side of the american people this time around. We have the conservatives just where we want them, 'without legitimacy to rule any further at this point in history.' In a plural democratic society; a social or government entity is "legitimate only to the degree that it seeks to redress inequality, not use it as a means to some indiscernible or obscure ends. The world is experiencing financial chaos caused by the lack of sufficient regulation on corporate entities such as banks, investment companies and just about anyone with the 'know how to fleece the american people.' The Bush administration is hiding the reality that under his watch 'trillions of dollars in pension fund money has been lost as a direct result of the continuing worldwide collapse of stock markets. In panic, the administration 'hatches a plan' to bailout the corporations that have loss the pension fund money. By bailing out these institutions and claiming a share in the name of the american people. The Congress of the United States has opened the door to 'scientific socialism' in the name of saving capitalism. But it turns out that its only 'socialism' when government helps the victims, which in this case is the american people. We have war; unemployment; inflation; recession; no comprehensive healthcare program and a system of social security that is 'on the brink. Also, americans are losing their homes at an alarming rate. The cost of outside energy sources such as oil by-products and the most important being gasoline. And these are just a few of this nations problems. I forgot to mention immigration. This presidential election is about "maintaining the status quo" or having a more inclusive role in the direction of this nation. We need a direction of change in order to access and repair the damage done in the last eight {8) years, and which impacts far too many of us for generations to come. We need solutions and not some useless rhetoric which suggest we forego another four years of Republican rule. The American people will speak, and speak loudly on November 4th.jBe sure to vote and remind family and friends to remind family and friends to "go out and vote."

Posted by: Robert English | Oct 27, 2008 1:02:36 PM

On 10/25/08 Mark wrote:
It is nice to see that not everyone is not being swayed by hated and fear and the GOP wants us to be.

* If you grow up in Hawaii, raised by your
grandparents, you’re “exotic, different.”

* Grow up in Alaska eating moose burgers, a
quintessential American story.

* If your name is Barack you’re a radical,
unpatriotic Muslim.

* Name your kids Willow, Trig and Track,
you’re a maverick.

* Graduate from Harvard law School and you are
unstable.

* Attend 5 different small colleges before
graduating, you’re well grounded.

* If you spend 3 years as a brilliant community
organizer, become the first black President of the Harvard
Law Review, create a voter registration drive that registers
150,000 new voters, spend 12 years as a Constitutional Law
professor, spend 8 years as a State Senator representing a
district with over 750,000 people, become chairman of the
state Senate’s Health and Human Services committee,
spend 4 years in the United States Senate representing a
state of 13 million people while sponsoring 131 bills and
serving on the Foreign Affairs, Environment and Public Works
and Veteran’s Affairs committees, you don’t have any
real leadership experience.

* If your total resume is: local weather girl, 4
years on the city council and 6 years as the mayor of a town
with less than 7,000 people, 20 months as the governor of a
state with only 650,000 people, then you’re qualified to
become the country’s second highest ranking executive.

* If you have been married to the same woman for
19 years while raising 2 beautiful daughters, all within
Protestant churches, you’re not a real Christian.

* If you cheated on your first wife with a rich
heiress, and left your disfigured wife and married the
heiress the next month, you’re a Christian.

If you teach responsible, age appropriate sex
education, including the proper use of birth control, you
are eroding the fiber of society.

* If , while governor, you staunchly advocate
abstinence only, with no other option in sex education in
your state’s school system while your unwed teen
daughter ends up pregnant , you’re very responsible.

* If your wife is a Harvard graduate lawyer who
gave up a position in a prestigious law firm to work for the
betterment of her inner city community, then gave that up to
raise a family, your family’s values don’t represent America’s.

* If you’re husband is nicknamed “First
Dude”, with at least one DWI conviction and no college
education, who didn’t register to vote until age 25 and
once was a member of a group that advocated the secession of
Alaska from the USA, your family is extremely admirable.

OK, much clearer now.

A vote for McCain is a vote for the biggest scam America has ever seen.

Posted by: Your Guide | Oct 27, 2008 1:06:02 PM

You forgot the one but very significant reason that McCain will lose... Media: 80%... It is no secret that the media is in bed with the Democratic Party. Journalism is now dead... journalists have put their political views in front of all else. They are a sellout...

Posted by: Nick | Oct 27, 2008 1:09:34 PM

My 5 reasons is:
1. Liberal media skewed and ommitted the facts towards obama favor.
2. Reporters not doing their jobs being objective and impartial.
3. McCain won't get tough with obama slimmy past.
4. Disenchanted voter thinks they doing the right thing by going with obama.
5. As a gifted BSer, obama can lied and makes it sound credible.

Posted by: USA-No1 | Oct 27, 2008 1:10:21 PM

The Democratic Party loves their "useful idiots" and it appears they have many...

Posted by: Nick | Oct 27, 2008 1:14:12 PM

But "your guide" McCain has the scars to prove it. LOL

Posted by: RosaritoBjaCa | Oct 27, 2008 1:18:40 PM

Not to mention the overwhelming bias of the media toward Obama. Where is the coverage of Biden's interview over the weekend which prompted the Obama campaign to blacklist the station who aired the interview? Ask Obama/Biden uncomfortable questions and they respond by censoring the media. But it's ok to ask Palin uncomfortable questions. It's ok to share stories about her that amount to vicious gossip. But questions concerning legitimate concerns and issues of Biden are not allowed.

Posted by: concerned_citizen | Oct 27, 2008 1:20:27 PM

I always wonder when people argue that the "media" is winning the election for Barack Obama if that means that you think the public cannot think for itself and it beleives whatever it sees on television or reads in the papers. Don't insult peoples' intelligence. most people form their own opinions regardless of what "agenda" you think the media is trying to push.

Posted by: Concerned about the facts | Oct 27, 2008 1:29:22 PM

It is not possible to make an informed choice if you are not given all the information. Much of the media is censoring negative information about Obama and Biden.

Posted by: concerned_citizen | Oct 27, 2008 1:33:30 PM

@rodney - actually, people grow up to be conservative because frontal lobe damage starts to set in at 40. The brain seriously deteriorates 5-15 years before death. And in between is just a downward spiral. One does not increase intelligence with age as you would have everyone believe. It goes down, down, down. Not only that, as one ages, so does their fear, which begins alter their decision making. Fear of getting hurt, fear of losing one's job, fear of their kids running into the street, etc etc. They become more comfortable with status quo opposed to stirring things and changing things even when they know it's the right thing to do. As one gets older, they fear change - any kind of change.

Now.. that's not a good thing-- to live in such fear that nothing gets accomplished.

Posted by: BIRD | Oct 27, 2008 1:38:57 PM

@concerned_citizen = the media asks sarah palin uncomfortable questions? really? like what she reads or what court case she doesn't agree with? are you kidding? biden answered these same questions.

an uncomfortable question for her would be to ask her about her ties to the alaska independence party or if she still backs abstinence only programs after her daughter is pregnant at 17.

see, those are the real kinds of questions that all the other candidates have answered. obama went on the o'reilly factor and interviewed with the biggest bully on tv.

so don't give me that crap about the media being hard on sarah.

Posted by: BIRD | Oct 27, 2008 1:46:39 PM

what is this comment blog, the All Bugged-Out Conspiracy gang? Your candidate couldn't possibly be losing because of poor management, poor judgment and promises to uphold many of the same policies of the the worst president we have ever had. Heck no, it must be the media. It must be a vast left-wing conspiracy. It must be terrorists, or Marxists or socialists (like you even know what those things are)Your freak conspiracy theories make no sense at all. Go back to your Lee Harvey Oswald obsessions and let the rest of the country get back to recovery.

Posted by: Ann | Oct 27, 2008 1:47:09 PM

Bird: "actually, people grow up to be conservative because frontal lobe damage starts to set in at 40."....partly right.....people do grow up to be conservative mainly because they grow up. Winston Churchill once said, "If you are young and not a liberal, you have not heart. If you are old and not conservative you have no brain." Bottom line is the young can be liberal with their ideas because they have very little worldly experience but once the reality and resonsiblity of family and home set in it clear that those that put out effort want to keep what they have earned. My guess, Bird, is that you are still in college and have yet to feel the real brunt of the world. Gurantee in 10 years your tune will be quite different.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 1:55:39 PM

I fully agree with Dowd on Point 2,3 and 5.Point# 1 and 4 I dont believe Democrats have any edge.But Mcain campaign's collosal failure to address point#2,3 and 5 is going to cost them the elections big time.

Posted by: moderaterepublican | Oct 27, 2008 1:58:19 PM

Why does the media have to include stuff and broadcast it about the families of the people running in this election??

I think that its all bull crap. It is nobodies business, only broadcast stuff about the actual persons running.

My goodness peoples need to grow up.

Posted by: HA HA | Oct 27, 2008 2:00:27 PM

If "On to it" were on to some common sense, he or she would stop blaming the media for everything. The "kill him" comments were not bogus BECAUSE YOU CAN HEAR THE PERSON SAYING IT ON THE TAPE!!! CAN WE PLEASE STOP BLAMING THE MEDIA AND DEAL WITH THE FREAKIN' ISSUES??!!

Posted by: stopthemadness | Oct 27, 2008 2:02:28 PM

Funny how the so-called liberal media is being blamed by desperate republicons this time. Even their beloved Fox Noise channel blames the Palin pick for much of McShame's problems. I didn't realize they grouped Rupert Murdoch as a liberal.

I also find it hilarious that they now blame the media. This of course is the same exact liberal media that allowed the coronation of 'W' by the supreme court to occur, followed by their refusal to investigate the voter caging in Ohio districts in '04 that turned the election to 'W' illegally.

So basically, it is a liberal media when things don't go their way but completely accurate when they do. What B.S.!

Posted by: Yes_We_Will | Oct 27, 2008 2:02:38 PM

Mr. Dowd,

You forgot another reason McCain may not move into the White House. He already has 7-13 other houses to move into...

But seriously, those of you that are still in serious mode, Obama did an unprecedented thing. He beat an unbeatable political machine- the Clintons. They were much, much, more formidable than this campaign. Blood was drawn, folks were battered, and there was 0% of the party that was undecided.

That made the Obama brand, strong, resilient, stalwart, more intelligent and possibly unstoppable.

It could be that McCain and his campaign were arrogant and uniformed about what voters were really looking for.

They started with straight talk and ended with muddled rhetoric.

Who hinges their campaign on "a washed up terrorist"?

Posted by: AProudCynic | Oct 27, 2008 2:02:50 PM

@concerned_citizen -- media bias trying to bury the biden interview from this last weekend? BIDEN HIT THAT ONE OUT OF THE PARK!! No one is ashamed of that interview - the only one ashamed is West that she didn't get her guy. She attempted to make joe fumble and he handed her ass to her instead.

Joe biden did what he does best. sarah palin would have CRIED if anyone asked her half those questions. he's once again proven why he's qualified to step in as presidnt and palin is not. she can't even handle katie couric.

Posted by: BIRD | Oct 27, 2008 2:03:09 PM

i would like to know where all the money came for Obama to go to all those really expensive schools and colleges for all those years, since his mother is white (thats typical white trash) and his father is black and was not in the picture (thats a typical nig nig). From all these muslims that are at war with our USA. Go figure people, and that is who you are voting for. WORTHLESS AMERICANS that vote this year for either OBAMA and MCCAIN.

My vote will not be casted this election time. I could not have either being in the White House to ruin our USA.

Posted by: ***HATER*** | Oct 27, 2008 2:04:18 PM

@tom - Tom, I am sorry that you were offended because of your old age. Denial isn't going to help you. These are facts I present.

I almost gave you my age and family life history until I remembered that I don't care what you think.

but one point: we can point to all those soccer mom votes for Bush the last election. those votes were generated by fear. they were concerned with homeland security.

Posted by: BIRD | Oct 27, 2008 2:09:21 PM

@***HATER*** Obama started getting scholarships even while in high school in hawaii.

oh.. and remember, one can get school loans. trust me, i was in the hole about 150,000 for mine.

Posted by: BIRD | Oct 27, 2008 2:11:42 PM

Pros and Cons with both candidates, but here's my reasons why McCain could not buy my vote (and I'm a registered Republican) ---

1 - has run the most despicable campaign ever --
2 - Palin - what...a...moron. i am dumbfounded that anyone other than a complete idiot would support her as VP --
3 - mccain seems to focus almost entirely on what obama is going to/not do. i'd really like to hear what his plan is and how he intends to carry it out, but its too late --
4 - i did the research and i think obama has a better plan. plus he has spent considerable time explaining it and how he's going to achieve it.

OBAMA/BIDEN 08/12

Posted by: ldk | Oct 27, 2008 2:12:15 PM

I don't need 5 reasons why our country won't succeed. I need only one: Obama. He talks a lot.

Posted by: young_voter | Oct 27, 2008 2:14:56 PM

Tom, your argument about age holds no water. I was a conservative in college and later at age 30+ I became a liberal, after I realized how bad the republican policies were to middle-class families. The whole idea that repubs are the party of values falls apart when you look at how it affects one's own family.

When I realized that Reagan's policies destroyed much of what families hold sacred such as funding for public education, especially post-secondary, his elimination of survivor benefits for many children of the deceased it became obvious that republicans are anything but family friendly.

Reagan's blatant disregard and defunding of the mental-health system of this country (which is why the homeless crisis became so bad) was the icing on the cake. He basically told the country to take on an "I got mine - Screw you" mentality.

All of this along with his phony anti-abortion stance was all designed to suck up to the religious right extremists because after many failed attempts he knew that without that he could not win.

So to be honest, I strongly believe Churchill had it backwards and I'd venture to say many of the folks old enough to remember what this country was like before him would agree.

Posted by: Yes_We_Will | Oct 27, 2008 2:17:08 PM

I think the Palin pick should rank much higher in the reasons why McCain will lose. She's such a polarizing figure and she appeals only to the extreme religious right-wingers which, thankfully, are a minority in this country. Most importantly, she's turned off the Independents and Moderates. I mean, anyone who is not blinded by her physical attractiveness, or the fact that she's a religious zealot or that she's a mom, will see that this woman is way too inexperienced in national and international issues to hold office in the White House. Her demeanor is also very unpresidential. The RNC would be foolish to even consider putting her up for nominatin in 2012 ... they'd just suffer the same defeat as they are about to this year.

Posted by: annaloh | Oct 27, 2008 2:22:04 PM

Top 8 Reasons Obama will win!
1. George Bush (people will unfairly link McCain to Bush even though the two don't like each other and McCain is considered not conservative enough in his own party)
2. Media Bias ( unbalanced reporting Giving Obama and forcing McCain to bring up the truth about Obama: Then blame him for running a negative campaign) If the media would have been fair and balanced McCain could have only ran on experience and Issues.
3. ACORN not saying Obama is connected or not although I believe he is! ACORN is supposed to be nonpartisan but have endorsed Obama and are linked to voter Fraud across the nation and all battle ground States!
4. Money ( lets face it money buys votes) Obama backed out on an earlier pledge on Campaign Finance allowing him to outspend McCain anywhere from 6-1 to 10-1 in all key battle ground states.
5. Young Voters and uninformed Voters: what Obama talks about sounds great to those who don't have a lot of money but his redistribution of wealth is not what the founding Fathers ever intended!
6. Race: wining the African American vote 99% to 1% but that is not reverse racism!
7. Age: Young voters they will not vote for someone who is 72. (ageism) like racism only on age! However Ronald Reagan was 70 when he was elected and also one of our best Presidents!
8. Lack of understanding of the negative effects of Obama's Tax plan: Raising taxes on those making more than 250,000 and business who makes more than 250,000. This will stop them from spending money and they will pass any increase on to the consumer effectively wiping out any tax break you receive. McCain will also cut your taxes if you actually pay any! And cut taxes on wealthy and Business this will inspire them to spend more money and provide better coverage and benefits to employees in the Middle class range. This does not even bring up the effects of doubling the Capital Gaines Tax on Business this will destroy any chance American business has to be competitive in a global Market.