Matthew Dowd

Matthew Dowd has been a campaign strategist in races throughout the country. In 30 years, Dowd has worked for Democrats and Republicans, most recently serving as chief strategist for President George W. Bush in 2004.

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Dowd: Top Five Reasons McCain Will Likely Lose

October 27, 2008 10:03 AM

Opinion by Matthew Dowd, ABC News Political Contributor

So, we have a little over a week left in this campaign, and hundreds of thousands of people have already voted, and at this point it looks like Obama will win unless something catastrophic happens (probably has to be a major mistake on his part).

And there has been a ton of discussion recently about why McCain is probably going to lose.  I want to add my two cents to that discussion because it is a bit different than others, and being statistic oriented I am going to give each factor a percentage of what it represents as a cause of that likely loss.

Here are the top five Dowd factors of a McCain loss:

1. Political Environment: 60% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

We have an incumbent president with the lowest job approval ratings in modern times –- lower than Nixon as he was pushed from office because of Watergate. 

In addition, nearly 90-percent of the country thinks things are on the wrong track. This all has given Democrats a generic ballot lead of double digits. (Generic ballot is when you have no names just party and ask who the country wants in office).   

This wave would be hard for anyone to stop. 

That is why the equilibrium of this race has always been one with Obama with a three or four point lead. The last couple of weeks has merely moved Obama's lead closer to the generic ballot number.

2. Brand Damage: 20% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

Sen. McCain, over the course of the last few years, has damaged his original brand of an independent maverick who would throw the flag on either side of the field. The seeds of this brand damage were sown years ago as McCain coddled up to the religious right and President Bush. 

And that damage was exacerbated in how his campaign has been conducted over the last few months –- negative attacks voters could care less about and emphasizing issues about which only conservatives seemed to care.

3. Palin Pick: 10% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

The Palin pick for vice president made McCain look like a total political opportunist as the American public came to the conclusion that she was unqualified for this office. 

In addition, swing and moderate voters were put off by her views on many issues and her personal attacks on the Democratic ticket.

4. Debates: 7% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

It is very unusual for one ticket to win every single debate. According to polling and most focus groups, Obama won all three presidential debates and Biden overwhelmingly bested Palin.

McCain, when the debates were done, had no more opportunities in a big way to address a large audience. The Democrats won the debates in a substantive way, but more importantly, temperament was highlighted, which hurt McCain.

5. Financial Meltdown: 3% of the reason for a probable McCain loss.

The collapse of Wall Street put the economy front and center, and the way McCain handled the challenge didn't make voters feel warm and fuzzy. 

Keep in mind: before this happened, the economy was already the number one issue –- it just became even more important because of the mess. 

Remember, Obama was already rising back in the polls after the initial Palin/Republican National Convention bump wore off. 

I know this is a very simplistic explanation; I'm sure there are other factors, but these are my top five reasons why John McCain is likely not to be moving into a new house in January.

October 27, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (265)

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Reason #6
A campaign run so poorly it begs to wonder how McCain would run an administration. He seems to let his advisors make decisions that should be his, like choosing a VP. On another note - Biden did not predict a war in 6 months and it is common knowledge any new president(dem or rep) will be challenged in his first year.

Posted by: Annie | Oct 27, 2008 11:21:36 AM

When we feel good about the world and the economy, we look for a leader we would like to have a beer with, when we don't, we look for a leader with the potential to provide clear, cool, steady, well-reasoned leadership. When you are sick, you look for a doctor who (you think) knows his stuff, not someone you could be buddy-buddy with.

Posted by: John | Oct 27, 2008 11:26:40 AM

McCain used the better part of these last two months on "Silly Season" topics. Lipstick on Pig, Ayers, ACORN, "Who is Obama?". Talk about great talking points. He and Palin used standard Republican talking points to attack and this time I think that many Americans this time just want our problems solved and we want to know who is solve them.

Posted by: Francheska | Oct 27, 2008 11:27:56 AM

The main reason McCain will lose this election is because I don't know if he has a rock for a brain or if he really just lack common sense. Picking Palin was the straw that broke the camel's back for me. McCain is more than old. He is elderly. Palin is more than ignorant, she is stupid. I know 10 year olds who are more of an intellectual than she is. McCain's judgement shows he is nothing more than an opportunist. Obama/Biden 08. It's time some adults get into the White House. No more idiots.

Posted by: Detour4 | Oct 27, 2008 11:28:43 AM

Annie: "and it is common knowledge any new president(dem or rep) will be challenged in his first year."....actually your "common knowledge" theroy is flawed. Those that would attack America already know the answer to such an attack if McCain were president and so would not inflame the issue more......Obama on the other hand would treat any attack as ANY Democrat would (with the exception of maybe Leiberman)and that would be to send in the FBI to investigate and to open lines of surrender to our enemies.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:29:04 AM

Tom are you talking about Faux News? I am so curious about how that crowd will react when it is a blowout...It seems to me that O'Reilly et al have been blowing smoke up their viewers backsides...I wonder after it is an Obama blowout if they are going to riot outside of Faux News HQ's demanding the New channel to actually report on the real news not the Republican talking points.

Posted by: Becky | Oct 27, 2008 11:29:48 AM

I think Obama will win Nov 4, just look at the alternative!! ;-)

Posted by: DeAndria | Oct 27, 2008 11:30:14 AM

A FOX NEWS poll Question of the Day under politics. It is still there if you would like to see it under
http://elections.foxnews.com/
~~~~~~~~~~
Which presidential candidate do you think would face an international crisis in his first year in office if elected?

John McCain 86%

Barack Obama 11%

Both candidates 1%

Neither candidate 2%
Total Voters:2037135

This is FAUX NEWS that has a poll saying this...so I believe it because FAUX news NEVER has anything good to say about Obama and if Obama WINS...Hannity is going to have a mjor heart attack on live television because he has a MAJOR Obama fixation. ;-)

Posted by: francheska ;-) | Oct 27, 2008 11:35:23 AM

John,

I fully agree with your comment: " It's curious to me why McCain's supporters blame the media for his decline in the polls. McCain has failed to run a campaign worthy of his reputation. Don't blame the media, blame the man". People are getting smarter, so is their jugdment and the media reflects this trend! Mccain is an arcaic man, with old ideias, and also hyprocite!I never forget the fact that he left his first wife, then crippled, with 3 kids, to marry the 18 years younger heiress. What an opportunist!

Posted by: Anna Brum | Oct 27, 2008 11:40:28 AM

On to it,

Get off of it!

McCain has had lots of news coverage of his negative strategy. Those hateful fans generated all kinds of free publicity for those who adhere to their philosophy.

Palin had a lot of good coverage too. She was shown in a very good light at first... until the truth started coming out. Her negative campaigning also continues to generate a lot of media coverage.

The trouble is, if all you base your campaign on is negativity, you really shouldn't be surprized if that's the kind of press it generates.

Posted by: Paul New man | Oct 27, 2008 11:40:57 AM

Becky, I am talking about ALL media outlets. To call Fox bias and not CNN, NBC, CBS, ABC, as well as NY Times, Washington Post and LA times (just to name a few....shows just how clearly you have been fooled. Zogby, whose polls over the last few elections have shown to be the most accurate has this at a 4.5 point spread. Anything can happen here. If you think this is blow out then you have to ask some serious questions here, the biggest one is: Obama is out spending McCain almost 4 to one, the economy has taken a major slide, despite a changing war enviroment for the positive the public still wants out, major Bush fatigue, high food prices and gas prices....with all this going for him and Obama is only 4 to 8 points ahead...why? He should clearly be double digit and high double digit at that. There is something the media probably isn't telling you. Obmission is still a lie if done with intent. You may have been lied to.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:48:04 AM

Biden promises a war in 6 months. This will be the "crisis" Obama needs to impose draft and martial law.
Biden said "mark my words".

Alrighty then.

Buy dried beans and water purifiers.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:50:55 AM

I think that Obama might actually be doing better in the polls, but, the polls are being taken of people with landlines. I do not know anyone with a landline. All my friends have cell phones, so there is a huge segment of the popultation that is not being polled. My grandma has a landline, so maybe they are polling only old people. ;-)

Posted by: amaryee | Oct 27, 2008 11:52:16 AM

Dowd can't see the elephant in the room! The biggest reason, if there is a DNC win, is the overwhelming amount of time the media has focused on the DNC candidate and neglected to do their jobs on the other candidates who are running. It is incomprehensible that the under-qualified leftist-polarized DNC candidate manipulated the media into doing his bidding. Now that the media is controlled by the DNC, we have only ourselves to blame if we let this continue. Vote for McCain/Palin. The McCain ticket is one of the most moderate mainstream candidates in years, and McCain is much better prepared to lead on Day 1 and make progress with those moderate policies that Americans support.

Posted by: Jack | Oct 27, 2008 11:54:54 AM


Why does AOL straw polls with one ISP per vote, with on average 165,000 votes, refreshed every week, consistently have McCain by a landslide?

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:54:58 AM

francheska: "if Obama WINS...Hannity is going to have a mjor heart attack on live television because he has a MAJOR Obama fixation. ;-)"....LMAO.....you're kidding right....an Obama win makes him MONEY. It just gives him more things to talk about.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 11:55:13 AM


Tomorrow will ABC run an article that says the 5 reasons Obama could lose?

1 -- Ridiculous tax policy -- additional taxes to spread the wealth is not patriotic. This is a country with a foundation to support hard work and success -- not punish it. The DOW is in the toilet and Obama wants to increase capital gains tax. You don't have to be rich to be impacted by this -- no matter how little you have in the stock market you'll end up with less. There isn't enough time to go over the other impacts of his tax policy.

2 -- No experience -- sure Obama is a gifted speaker -- but every Obama supporter I know can't tell me what he has accomplished -- they just say, well I like what he says?

3 -- Not ready lead -- the Presidency isn't meant to be on the job training -- Biden said this in the primaries and recently said Obama will be tested because of his inexperience

4 -- Questionable relationships -- I'm not sure why people ignore this -- either Obama is clueless about the people he hangs out with or he enjoys hanging out with radicals -- pick your poison -- but it isn't just one person or one group -- there is a pattern here

5 -- The American people vote -- none of us know what will happen until Nov 4th -- when Americans can vote -- by secret ballot (would Obama like to eliminate that the same way he wants to do this for labor elections?)

Posted by: JJ | Oct 27, 2008 11:57:02 AM

Uh, Tom if Obama wins he will censor conservative media completely off the air within 6 weeks of inauguration. Radio and TV and Internet 2 is the new censored-filtered internet.
Bye bye freedom of speech.
And they will punish naysayers like Joe the Plumber who was "investigated" illegally.
Political Prisoners will be common under Obama/Biden.

Posted by: Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America | Oct 27, 2008 11:57:20 AM

Obama and Ayers Will Destroy America: Oh, believe me it will get ugly. The good news is the populace are armed. Any infringement on the popluation will not be tolerated. To those on the left that thinks the Patriot Act was intrucive have no idea what true scrapping of rights really is.

Posted by: Tom | Oct 27, 2008 12:03:27 PM

MCCAIN WAS "SONGBIRD" THE HANOI TRAITOR.

HE MADE 38 FILMS FOR THE NVA.

HE DID MORE TO HURT THE WAR EFFORT THAN 100 JANE FONDAS.

HE'S A FRAUD AND HAS BEEN HIS ENTIRE LIFE... FROM DUMPING HIS WIFE ON HER DEATHBED, THROUGH CINDY'S FAMILY MOB CONNEX, THROUGH THE KEATING FIVE, THROUGH DUMPING THE POW / MIAS, THROUGH "THE PALIEN".

THE MAN'S GOT NO MORALS.

HE'S TOAST.


Posted by: CHUCK | Oct 27, 2008 12:12:39 PM

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