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Thank You, Weak Dollar!
August 28, 2008 12:08 PM
ABC News' Bianna Golodryga reports: Thank you, weak dollar! For the second day in a row, Wall Street has been greeted by better-than-expected economic news.
Wednesday it was a better-than-expected durable goods orders report, for the second month in a row, no less.
This morning it was a better-than-expected revision in second quarter economic growth. GDP growth between the months of April and June was revised up to 3.3 percent after original estimates from the government called for an upward revision of 1.9 percent.
Hey, in this environment, it's kind of nice to have low expectations every once in a while, right? Especially after the pitiful 0.9 percent growth reported for the first quarter of the year.
The breakdown of the report explains it all: exports, exports, exports...
They were up 13 percent in the second quarter on the heels of foreign markets gobbling up U.S.-made products as if they were preparing for a storm (and I’m not talking about Gustav, but more on that later).
That same drive for U.S.-made products overseas also explains the uptick in durable goods orders, which climbed 1.3 percent in July. It's clear that even if U.S. consumers have gone on a spending diet, U.S. businesses catering to international buyers are still charging full steam ahead after a weak U.S. dollar has made them much more competitive in the global playing field.
That's right, folks -- it's all about the steep decline we've seen in the U.S. dollar and it may be one reason why the government and Mr. Paulson (while always sticking to the mantra of a strong dollar policy) have been lax about enforcing one over the past year.
In July, the U.S dollar hit a record low of $1.6038 against the euro, making U.S. products and U.S. real estate bargain investments. And in no place in the country is this trend more evident than in New York City, where every other person walking down the street is carrying bags full of merchandise, and nearly each on of them is speaking in a foreign tongue. On a recent flight back to New York from Texas, I overheard a conversation between two non-New Yorkers, who were visiting the Big Apple for the first time, discussing how every other person on the street is a foreigner. You know the saying, when everyone becomes an expert on a trend, be it dot-coms, real estate and yes, tourism, you've reached its peak? That could be the case here.
In recent weeks, the dollar has jumped more than 5 percent versus the euro, putting it on course for its best monthly performance in nine years. That resurgence has less to do with a strengthening U.S economy and dollar but more so with a slowing global economy. Coming on the heels of the U.S. slowdown, the global economy’s woes show that even despite globalization and its effects, when the U.S. sneezes, the world still catches a cold (though perhaps not as quickly as it used to).
It's becoming clear that the credit crisis is spreading beyond the U.S at a steady pace. Economic forecasts throughout Europe have been gloomy as of late. The housing markets in Spain and the U.K. are quickly deteriorating, while polls in Europe's largest economy, Germany, show a great deal of consumer and business worry and angst. The same is taking place in Japan and yes, even the unstoppable China (which, don't get me wrong, is still growing, albeit in the single digits -- analysts are now calling for China's economic growth to drop to 9 percent this year, down from 11.4 percent in 2007.)
So what will happen in September, which is historically a lousy month for the markets? Who knows? It's impossible to gauge where the market will close today, much less what it will be doing next month. As Arthur Cashin, head of floor operations for UBS, rightly pointed out this morning, the Thursday before Labor Day has "a rather negative history over the years, in the last 11 years, it has been down ten times."
Judging by today's strong open, it may break that trend, thanks again, to a weak dollar. But, with Tropical Storm Gustav charging ahead, and oil prices climbing in tandem, the hurricane could give the dollar a run for its money, literally. The AP has been reporting that if Gustav attacks the same region as Katrina, the Bush administration could tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Planalytics, a provider of business weather intelligence reports that the storm could force closed around 85 percent of oil-producing platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
But for now, market bulls are in charge, as the Dow is up triple digits on news that the summer has not been nearly as bad as expected. The bears? Well, they are just reminding the bulls that those initial expectations were nothing to brag about.
August 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (39)
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Somebody tell this bimbo that it's the weak dollar that is driving the cost of living up, and the "true" inflation rate up to 13% Don't believe me, check how prices are now vs. last year or just try to get half as much as you bought at the grocery store vs. what you paid for a full trip. This is propaganda at it's WORST!
Posted by: argh! | Aug 28, 2008 12:24:24 PM
We are the new third world, China will become an economic power and we will be left with debt and talk radio LMFAO.
Posted by: Hege! | Aug 28, 2008 12:50:53 PM
Show some respect. She seemed more knowledgeable than you are.
How did you come up with your 13% inflation rate? Explain that before I assume you are a major league moron, of course, with all due respect.
Posted by: Roger Miller | Aug 28, 2008 12:51:52 PM
Roger Miller - 13% is including food and energy. Weak dollar means we will make more stuff, but that everyting costs more. Not really a good thing.
Posted by: Ben Straub | Aug 28, 2008 12:59:02 PM
What is the US exporting ? There is still something made in the US ?
Posted by: angelp90 | Aug 28, 2008 1:22:00 PM
US Companies are exporting jobs.
Posted by: Hege! | Aug 28, 2008 2:43:27 PM
I'll buy that for a dollar.
And if you believe that one, I've got a bridge I'd like to sell ya.....
You've got to be an absolute moron to believe that a weak dollar is good for America.
After all the crap America has bought into over the past seven years, I guess they've learned by now that they could tell us poison is good for us and we'd start drinking it by the gallons.
Who is this stupid joke on?
America?
Posted by: Olivia | Aug 28, 2008 3:41:58 PM
Argh!--- Although I don't have time to go into every aspect of economic theory for you, let me at least straighten you out on a few points.
First, The cost of living and prices in general are driven up by inflation, not a weak dollar. The relative weakness or strength of the dollar is determined by comparing our inflation rates to those of foreign entities.(Therefore their money is stronger than ours, making U.S. goods cheap for them.)
Second, the "bimbo" most likely has more education than you do, specifically in economics.
Lastly, Propaganda would better describe the situation if she were telling us everything was fine, the dollar was strong, and exports were sky-high. (Like a certain GOP candidate who is rusty in economics)
Posted by: M.Alto | Aug 28, 2008 3:47:20 PM
SHHHH dont tell the doom and gloom dems that this economy is not as bad as their leaders have been telling them. You are just going to confuse them with good news about the economy and they will not know how to act.
Posted by: billy bob | Aug 28, 2008 3:49:32 PM
Your responses on this board indicate the real reason America is going down the tubes. No one cares about the facts (especially delivered by a woman!), everybody thinks they know something (gee, if we didn't know anything, would we be able to spout it to the world on such cool message boards?), when in fact they know NOTHING AT ALL. But facts can't convince them that their ignorant biases are wrong. In fact, it seems that W. was the perfect president for such a nation of know-nothings.
Posted by: j_in_neast | Aug 28, 2008 3:49:35 PM
Your responses on this board indicate the real reason America is going down the tubes. No one cares about the facts (especially delivered by a woman!), everybody thinks they know something (gee, if we didn't know anything, would we be able to spout it to the world on such cool message boards?), when in fact they know NOTHING AT ALL. But facts can't convince them that their ignorant biases are wrong. In fact, it seems that W. was the perfect president for such a nation of know-nothings.
Posted by: j_in_neast | Aug 28, 2008 3:49:36 PM
What world is this woman living in? Yeah there are some unforseen (good) side effects to the weak dollar, more money coming from stronger currencies, and more visitors who are buying up everything faster than you can put it on the market. But what does it do to us? We can't afford to buy things in our own country... look at Latin America, there's rich and there's poor, that's what we're becoming, the middle class is disappearing! Sweety, next time, you should mention in your article how the weak dollar hurts the US economy and not the other way around.
Posted by: Enrik Van Depaalm | Aug 28, 2008 3:50:54 PM
Inflation rate is up? Wow! That's a news flash. When hasn't it been up?
I realize that bashing the U.S. is now the national sport; more treasured than baseball, football and, yes, enjoyed by more people than even American Idol.
However, the U.S. is exporting airplanes (civilian), steel, even automobiles...you know, those "durable goods" the article talks about. There has been no "negative growth" to support the claims of recession. While recent growth rates have been small, they're still in the positive column.
Oh well, in a world where millions are merely hoping to have something to eat today, some people will never be able to see beyond their HD TVs, stereos, iPods, microwaves and...you know, all those absolute necessities our dismal standard of living requires.
Posted by: MizFW | Aug 28, 2008 3:53:12 PM
MizFW, you forgot cell phones, our kids would not be able to surive without being able to text someone every five minutes.
Posted by: billy bob | Aug 28, 2008 3:58:16 PM
A weak dollar is good for businesses but not good for the American people. Of course, the Bush Administration is delighted because they represent business interests rather than the people.
Posted by: Two-cats | Aug 28, 2008 4:20:28 PM
I've been comparing US goods to the Chinese at the stores lately and American goods are far better. That's why they're buying them and they're affordable now. Compare yourself and then be proud.
Posted by: Jack | Aug 28, 2008 4:34:46 PM
I think this article is right on the money so to say. For so many months I have been hearing that we are in a recession by some doom and gloomers. Well its funny how we haven't actually seen one yet. Not saying some aren't hurting, but that has been that way throughout history. I don't ever recall the unemployment rate being 0%. I just think it is funny how so many think they know something because someone said it. The facts speak louder than words to me and for those that think China is some kind of threat to our existance is just plain stupid. We are an economy with a GDP of over $13 Trillion and to think we are somehow slipping into an oblivion is crazy. The weak dollar does help us in a way and is not all bad. If you are sad to see manufacturing jobs leave this country(which is the jobs going overseas)then try minimizing unions affects on companies bottom lines. The auto industry is a perfect example and there shouldn't be people working on a factory line making $100,000 a year, thats just stupid as I can't make that much and I have to rack my brain and stress all day for my job. Some people in this country just don't get it and they want to get something for nothing. Societies progress and we are not a country focused on Manufacturing anymore, its not worth it because of Unions.
Posted by: Eric | Aug 28, 2008 4:38:59 PM
I am more in the Jim Rogers, Ron Paul, Peter Schiff camp. I think inflation and a weak dollar are bad things.
Posted by: Huh | Aug 28, 2008 5:09:44 PM
I have to agree with Eric right on. I am an American living in Australia. Let me tell you they are going through the same thing. If you want Manufacturing jobs get rid of the unions. The unions are killing it here in Australia. I worked at Consolidated Frieght back in my college days and let me tell you the union did no justice to the business. Guess what, the company doesnt exist anymore. Companies over here are moving overseas as well because the cost of laber is to high with the level of productivity that they will get. You go to India or China and you can get it for a lot less but higher productivity. The only problem is you lose the quality. My belief is this whole China and India thing is going to lose out. I am already seeing articles of companies pulling out because the wages are to high and shipping costs are going through the roof. The recession is due to the idiots called the media who only really print negative information. I was suprised to see this kind of article it is rare. The economy I believe is going to start turning around. We are about to see the end of the financial crisis. I certainly hope the banks of the world have realized greed will always get the best of you.
Posted by: Brandon | Aug 28, 2008 5:30:26 PM
Success administrations (and knowledgeable voters) understand that what's good for business (that's business in general, not a particular business or type of business) is good for a capitalist economy. What's good for the economy is generally good for the people living in it.
Like it or not, without a healthy business community and wealthy people to invest in it, we "average Americans" would be in bad shape.
Where do you think banks get the money they lend you to buy a car? A house? That new TV? It comes from investors.
What do you think financial institutions do with the money in CD's, IRAs and other investment/savings accounts? They lend it out, of course.
So when politicians talk about taxing the rich, do try to keep in mind that when those with money to invest are taxed too heavily, they stop investing and usually move their funds elsewhere.
Posted by: MizFW | Aug 28, 2008 5:34:13 PM
Weak dollar good? Don't tell that to people on fixed incomes. The weak dollar is just part of the problem. Out of control spending and living beyond our means is the real issue. No more stupid wars please, and stop all the endless entitlements.
Posted by: antenian | Aug 28, 2008 5:38:29 PM
I remember when Japan was going to be the new econimic power house of the 21st century, of course that was right about the time we were switching from going into the new ice age to global warming. When China chrashes, maybe India can be the next nail in our coffin. We still have the ability to destroy the world and may use that trump card if things go to far out of wack :)
Posted by: david | Aug 28, 2008 5:51:24 PM
It must be a pretty good economy here in the good ole' USA or why would we spend billion of dollars building a wall on our Mexican border? Remember, it is going up to keep illegals out of our country, not to keep our own citizens in.
Posted by: Roger | Aug 28, 2008 6:16:53 PM
Responding to Jack - I was just informed last week that my job is going overseas. My company is a non-union company. It is government regulation that is driving my (former) employer out of the country. Government oversight has gotten to the point where its not oversight, its telling us do your business our way. But, the government won't tell us what their way is. It's we'll know it when we see it!
If the government would just tell us what they want, we'd do it instead of wasting millions of dollars in a trial and error approach to government regulation. So, because of government regulation, it just costs too much to make our product in the U.S. The lower dollar hasn't helped me at all.
Posted by: Mad Scientist | Aug 28, 2008 6:46:07 PM
This reflected for a change a good understanding of monetary economics. The price of stock should NEVER be anything to cheer about. The low price of goods should be, provided that we are not selling our inheritance to realize them.
Posted by: RE Mant | Aug 28, 2008 6:59:22 PM
Hey Eric and Brandon?
If unions are the scapegoat for jobs going over-seas due to high wages...would you care to move to India or China and work for oh say....twelve dollars a day?
Posted by: seansatx | Aug 28, 2008 7:00:47 PM
Eric and Brandon are right, and I say that as someone who comes from a union-family. Unions have outlived their purpose and by putting worker needs ahead of productivity, they severely cripple business. This country now has good worker-protection laws, minimum wage requirements and other regulations that protect employees - making unions unnecessary. By the way,unions are hanging on by the skin of their teeth, and it makes me mighty nervous when they cozy up to one political party - in this case the Democratic party. This election will be a key one for the future of unions.
Posted by: momobella | Aug 28, 2008 8:37:20 PM
The dollar is weakening for a couple of reasons. First, its only intrinsic value is rooted in the "full faith and credit" of the government, which happens to have $100 trillion in unfunded obligations right now. Second, the idiots at the Treasury and the central bank (Federal Reserve) are counterfeiting money so fast: the money supply is growing by a 15% annual rate. (See www.shadowstats.com\alternate_data for a chart). The injection of newly created money into the economy at arbitrary points and times distorts creates a distorted capital structure. Like with all fiat currencies, ours will sooner or later collapse and become valueless, except perhaps as tinder or toilet paper. The dollar has lost over 95% of its value since the Fed was created.
Posted by: asdf | Aug 28, 2008 9:01:19 PM
"This country has ...minimum wage requirements...that protect employees" Not at all momobella. Companies who cannot afford to pay the minimum wage will do without workers or will hire under the table (e.g. illegal immigrants), or will charge more for their products to compensate for their being forced to pay more wages. Minimum wage is the same as price fixing and it's a form of communism that prevents two people from freely entering into contracts to exchange a certain amount of labor for a certain amount of money.
Posted by: asdf | Aug 28, 2008 9:12:04 PM
"why would we spend billion of dollars building a wall on our Mexican border" - Because we want to give low-skilled jobs to American workers, allowing them to earn minimum wage, driving the prices of goods up, and harming average Americans. It will also deplete our labor pool. It's yet another way to slit our wrists economically.
Posted by: asdf | Aug 28, 2008 9:25:21 PM
This article isn't meant to shape US markets, just talk about a small market highlight with a little tongue in cheek. You dumped on this girl like she was burning babies. The bimbo and woman talk was way out of line.
Posted by: Tommy D | Aug 29, 2008 7:10:49 AM
The Zimbabweans love their weak dollar!
Posted by: Ben Straub | Aug 29, 2008 9:55:30 AM
what the hell aare you guys thinking its not good for the US to have a weak dollar it hurts us but the rich people suck everyone elses money up and dont give a damn and would rather help themselves
Posted by: john | Aug 29, 2008 11:41:45 AM
WE ARE STRONG DOLLAR AND WILL BE FOREVER. EVEN AFTER WERE NUKED. SO BUY MBI AND AMBAC NOW!also htm/ fre are hott stocks for anyone with a .....
Posted by: tom | Aug 29, 2008 6:47:58 PM
Hmm, I don't agree...a weak dollar may help the export industries she cited, but overall it is responsible for exacerbating the credit crisis we are having and lowering the real value of wages. Our spending power decreases as this happens, and basic staples like food and gas (especially since most oil is imported and still would be even if we drilled more oil offshore in the hurricane-infested waters of the south and southeast). Moreover, what has always given the U.S. economy its redeeming economic strength across the generations hasn't been manufacturing alone but the ease with which new technologies and new industries were able to start and flourish in an environment where liberal thought and enterprise were secure. What I'm saying is, what we SHOULD be doing is executing an economic strategy that encourages new technology and encourages first movers in new industries...if the dollar is weakening, less foreign investment will flood into new startups to encourage their development as the value of those investments will fall or at least be lessened if the weak dollar undermines the comparative gains from the rising stocks of such firms. What this export emphasis is, really, is the U.S. trying to take over China's role in the world (which we can't do unless we devalue the dollar so much that our labor is cheaper than theirs). In that situation, only heavy industry benefits but most average citizens become dirt poor (their wages buy very little) and innovation withers on the vine, since no one wants to work in a textile mill or a factory building obsolete cars all their lives when you can go to a different country and be rewarded for your education by getting research grants and startup money for new firms, incentives that also have been becoming scarce with the Administration's "strategy."
Posted by: PalatinePup | Aug 31, 2008 4:50:42 AM
The US imports OIL. Lots and lots of oil. When the dollar is weak, oil shoots up. So what, if we export more stuff?
A lot of this stuff was raw materials and commodities. The weak dollar means foreigners are buying up all of America. Make the dollar super-weak, we can sell our babies, too.
Posted by: Elaine Meinel Supkis | Aug 31, 2008 8:27:06 PM
**I left something out of my earlier comment, so to correct: basic staples like food and gas (oil) will go up drastically, and just like Elaine said, other imported goods will too as the trend continues, especially the raw materials we don't export but import for our own industries.
Posted by: PalatinePup | Sep 1, 2008 5:00:17 AM
Why do you think we are paying more for
gas, a weak dollar. Go abroad, nobody wants the dollar anymore. The dollar is
now the Americam Peso.
Posted by: stock picks | Sep 3, 2008 11:10:05 PM
Bottom line:
Ron Paul says a weak dollar is bad, and he has always told us the truth. Enough said.
Posted by: Huh | Sep 4, 2008 4:22:56 PM
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