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Thank You, Weak Dollar!

August 28, 2008 12:08 PM

ABC News' Bianna Golodryga reports: Thank you, weak dollar! For the second day in a row, Wall Street has been greeted by better-than-expected economic news.

Apg_euro_dollar_080227_main Wednesday it was a better-than-expected durable goods orders report, for the second month in a row, no less.

This morning it was a better-than-expected revision in second quarter economic growth. GDP growth between the months of April and June was revised up to 3.3 percent after original estimates from the government called for an upward revision of 1.9 percent.

Hey, in this environment, it's kind of nice to have low expectations every once in a while, right? Especially after the pitiful 0.9 percent growth reported for the first quarter of the year.

The breakdown of the report explains it all: exports, exports, exports...

They were up 13 percent in the second quarter on the heels of foreign markets gobbling up U.S.-made products as if they were preparing for a storm (and I’m not talking about Gustav, but more on that later).

That same drive for U.S.-made products overseas also explains the uptick in durable goods orders, which climbed 1.3 percent in July. It's clear that even if U.S. consumers have gone on a spending diet, U.S. businesses catering to international buyers are still charging full steam ahead after a weak U.S. dollar has made them much more competitive in the global playing field.

That's right, folks -- it's all about the steep decline we've seen in the U.S. dollar and it may be one reason why the government and Mr. Paulson (while always sticking to the mantra of a strong dollar policy) have been lax about enforcing one over the past year.

In July, the U.S dollar hit a record low of $1.6038 against the euro, making U.S. products and U.S. real estate bargain investments. And in no place in the country is this trend more evident than in New York City, where every other person walking down the street is carrying bags full of merchandise, and nearly each on of them is speaking in a foreign tongue. On a recent flight back to New York from Texas, I overheard a conversation between two non-New Yorkers, who were visiting the Big Apple for the first time, discussing how every other person on the street is a foreigner. You know the saying, when everyone becomes an expert on a trend, be it dot-coms, real estate and yes, tourism, you've reached its peak? That could be the case here.

In recent weeks, the dollar has jumped more than 5 percent versus the euro, putting it on course for its best monthly performance in nine years. That resurgence has less to do with a strengthening U.S economy and dollar but more so with a slowing global economy. Coming on the heels of the U.S. slowdown, the global economy’s woes show that even despite globalization and its effects, when the U.S. sneezes, the world still catches a cold (though perhaps not as quickly as it used to).

It's becoming clear that the credit crisis is spreading beyond the U.S at a steady pace. Economic forecasts throughout Europe have been gloomy as of late. The housing markets in Spain and the U.K. are quickly deteriorating, while polls in Europe's largest economy, Germany, show a great deal of consumer and business worry and angst. The same is taking place in Japan and yes, even the unstoppable China (which, don't get me wrong, is still growing, albeit in the single digits -- analysts are now calling for China's economic growth to drop to 9 percent this year, down from 11.4 percent in 2007.)

So what will happen in September, which is historically a lousy month for the markets? Who knows? It's impossible to gauge where the market will close today, much less what it will be doing next month. As Arthur Cashin, head of floor operations for UBS, rightly pointed out this morning, the Thursday before Labor Day has "a rather negative history over the years, in the last 11 years, it has been down ten times."

Judging by today's strong open, it may break that trend, thanks again, to a weak dollar. But, with Tropical Storm Gustav charging ahead, and oil prices climbing in tandem, the hurricane could give the dollar a run for its money, literally. The AP has been reporting that if Gustav attacks the same region as Katrina, the Bush administration could tap into the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. Planalytics, a provider of business weather intelligence reports that the storm could force closed around 85 percent of oil-producing platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

But for now, market bulls are in charge, as the Dow is up triple digits on news that the summer has not been nearly as bad as expected. The bears? Well, they are just reminding the bulls that those initial expectations were nothing to brag about.

August 28, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (39)

User Comments

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Hey Eric and Brandon?
If unions are the scapegoat for jobs going over-seas due to high wages...would you care to move to India or China and work for oh say....twelve dollars a day?

Posted by: seansatx | Aug 28, 2008 7:00:47 PM

Eric and Brandon are right, and I say that as someone who comes from a union-family. Unions have outlived their purpose and by putting worker needs ahead of productivity, they severely cripple business. This country now has good worker-protection laws, minimum wage requirements and other regulations that protect employees - making unions unnecessary. By the way,unions are hanging on by the skin of their teeth, and it makes me mighty nervous when they cozy up to one political party - in this case the Democratic party. This election will be a key one for the future of unions.

Posted by: momobella | Aug 28, 2008 8:37:20 PM

The dollar is weakening for a couple of reasons. First, its only intrinsic value is rooted in the "full faith and credit" of the government, which happens to have $100 trillion in unfunded obligations right now. Second, the idiots at the Treasury and the central bank (Federal Reserve) are counterfeiting money so fast: the money supply is growing by a 15% annual rate. (See www.shadowstats.com\alternate_data for a chart). The injection of newly created money into the economy at arbitrary points and times distorts creates a distorted capital structure. Like with all fiat currencies, ours will sooner or later collapse and become valueless, except perhaps as tinder or toilet paper. The dollar has lost over 95% of its value since the Fed was created.

Posted by: asdf | Aug 28, 2008 9:01:19 PM

"This country has ...minimum wage requirements...that protect employees" Not at all momobella. Companies who cannot afford to pay the minimum wage will do without workers or will hire under the table (e.g. illegal immigrants), or will charge more for their products to compensate for their being forced to pay more wages. Minimum wage is the same as price fixing and it's a form of communism that prevents two people from freely entering into contracts to exchange a certain amount of labor for a certain amount of money.

Posted by: asdf | Aug 28, 2008 9:12:04 PM

"why would we spend billion of dollars building a wall on our Mexican border" - Because we want to give low-skilled jobs to American workers, allowing them to earn minimum wage, driving the prices of goods up, and harming average Americans. It will also deplete our labor pool. It's yet another way to slit our wrists economically.

Posted by: asdf | Aug 28, 2008 9:25:21 PM

This article isn't meant to shape US markets, just talk about a small market highlight with a little tongue in cheek. You dumped on this girl like she was burning babies. The bimbo and woman talk was way out of line.

Posted by: Tommy D | Aug 29, 2008 7:10:49 AM

The Zimbabweans love their weak dollar!

Posted by: Ben Straub | Aug 29, 2008 9:55:30 AM

what the hell aare you guys thinking its not good for the US to have a weak dollar it hurts us but the rich people suck everyone elses money up and dont give a damn and would rather help themselves

Posted by: john | Aug 29, 2008 11:41:45 AM

WE ARE STRONG DOLLAR AND WILL BE FOREVER. EVEN AFTER WERE NUKED. SO BUY MBI AND AMBAC NOW!also htm/ fre are hott stocks for anyone with a .....

Posted by: tom | Aug 29, 2008 6:47:58 PM

Hmm, I don't agree...a weak dollar may help the export industries she cited, but overall it is responsible for exacerbating the credit crisis we are having and lowering the real value of wages. Our spending power decreases as this happens, and basic staples like food and gas (especially since most oil is imported and still would be even if we drilled more oil offshore in the hurricane-infested waters of the south and southeast). Moreover, what has always given the U.S. economy its redeeming economic strength across the generations hasn't been manufacturing alone but the ease with which new technologies and new industries were able to start and flourish in an environment where liberal thought and enterprise were secure. What I'm saying is, what we SHOULD be doing is executing an economic strategy that encourages new technology and encourages first movers in new industries...if the dollar is weakening, less foreign investment will flood into new startups to encourage their development as the value of those investments will fall or at least be lessened if the weak dollar undermines the comparative gains from the rising stocks of such firms. What this export emphasis is, really, is the U.S. trying to take over China's role in the world (which we can't do unless we devalue the dollar so much that our labor is cheaper than theirs). In that situation, only heavy industry benefits but most average citizens become dirt poor (their wages buy very little) and innovation withers on the vine, since no one wants to work in a textile mill or a factory building obsolete cars all their lives when you can go to a different country and be rewarded for your education by getting research grants and startup money for new firms, incentives that also have been becoming scarce with the Administration's "strategy."

Posted by: PalatinePup | Aug 31, 2008 4:50:42 AM

The US imports OIL. Lots and lots of oil. When the dollar is weak, oil shoots up. So what, if we export more stuff?

A lot of this stuff was raw materials and commodities. The weak dollar means foreigners are buying up all of America. Make the dollar super-weak, we can sell our babies, too.

Posted by: Elaine Meinel Supkis | Aug 31, 2008 8:27:06 PM

**I left something out of my earlier comment, so to correct: basic staples like food and gas (oil) will go up drastically, and just like Elaine said, other imported goods will too as the trend continues, especially the raw materials we don't export but import for our own industries.

Posted by: PalatinePup | Sep 1, 2008 5:00:17 AM

Why do you think we are paying more for
gas, a weak dollar. Go abroad, nobody wants the dollar anymore. The dollar is
now the Americam Peso.

Posted by: stock picks | Sep 3, 2008 11:10:05 PM

Bottom line:
Ron Paul says a weak dollar is bad, and he has always told us the truth. Enough said.

Posted by: Huh | Sep 4, 2008 4:22:56 PM

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