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Stocks Fall, Oil Makes a Surprise Return

September 22, 2008 4:01 PM

Arnall_2 MayerowitzABC News’ Daniel Arnall and Scott Mayerowitz report: It was another rough day on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones industrial average failing 372.75 points today. The main driver: fear over the government’s plan to spend $700 billion to buy bad mortgage investments from banks.

To make matters worse, it was a wild day for the oil markets. Just when you thought the price of oil and gas was going down a bit, it sneaks up and bites you.

The price of a barrel of oil today shot up $16.37 to close at $120.92. It was the largest single-day jump ever in the price of oil. At one point, oil was up a mind-blowing $25 a barrel.

The previous one-day price jump record of $10.75 was set June 6.

Nm_oil_080922_main In the last four trading days, crude has made tremendous gains, ending a two-month decline that brought the price -- briefly -- below $100 a barrel. Oil prices are still below the record of $147.27 reached in July, but a little too close for comfort.

There is never one thing that drives up the price of oil, but part of today’s rise came as investors continued to move money away from stocks and into other investments. Commodities -- like gold and oil -- have historically been safe-havens for investors hoping to weather a stormy stock market.

The falling dollar also likely contributed to the day’s big crude spike. Oil is sold world-wide in U.S. dollars. So when the dollar falls against other currencies, foreign buyers of oil can buy more black gold when they spend the same amount of their local currency.

But oil analyst Stephen Schork says he believes something else might be at play: short selling.

Schork says he believes the big jump in June came after a big oil marketing firm had placed a big bet that the price of crude was going to drop. When that didn’t come to fruition, the company had to cover its bet by buying a lot of oil contracts, and quickly. Other market players knew this firm had to buy the contracts, so they effectively said, “We know you need this now, so pay up.”

“I think someone today has obviously gone bust,” Schork said. “This was obviously a short squeeze of epic proportions. Some large or just a cadre of bears stole short this market and they just got a squeeze of a lifetime today.”

Schork says there’s no news about supply and demand that would justify such a big move, so consumers shouldn’t necessarily worry the retail price of gasoline or heating oil will spike too.

September 22, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (82)

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Well, I'm seriously beginning to wonder if I'll survive with a retirement lately.

Posted by: Sandra | Sep 22, 2008 4:57:01 PM

Let's all pray?

Posted by: evs | Sep 22, 2008 5:03:56 PM

Has any body figured out what if might cost to help the home owner directly instead of the greedy bastards on Wall Street whi will find a way to steal even more money from tjhe taxpayers.

We could help owners to bridge the gap between what they can afford and what the owe. This assistance would eventually decrease as home prices are restored. People who have wealth and simply walk away from their properties because they are no longer "good" investments should be prosecuted and their wealth seized to pay for their speculation. Thrifty citizens should not be expected to pay for gamblers who can still afford their mortgages.

Posted by: geneonlbk | Sep 22, 2008 5:04:29 PM

OUCH!!! It I was an American tax payer I'd be pi$$ed in a big way!
The mess started way back in the 90s with the internet hype:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/dotcon/
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/shows/wallstreet/
Then the government started spending (accounting lag, so they start spending after the boom). Then we had a war in there (everyone in business knows war brings prosperity!). Then an oil crisis. Commodity stock hype (including gold - which seems to fluctuate with stock, gotta start to wonder if it is used as a means of liquidating dough to some other currency?). Then the housing melt down. Only so many jobs can be created then what goes up must come down. Crashing down! Bail out!
What gets me is this 700 BILLION (Say it! cause you will probably never see it!) is free money!
Free markets doesn't mean free handouts! And, that is what this is. A free handout! Fluff funds!
Wouldn't be that bad if it went to technology that created jobs with substance. But, it is going to the housing boom. Which just keeps the local economies afloat really. No long term job growth. No innovation. Just same old same old bum showing stuff - making money the easy way.
So, what do we have since the boom?
Probably jobs that live off fluff (fake dough), unsustainable.
Probably higher housing prices.
Probably more poor and more rich (won't be reported till next year or later).
More foreign owned debt.
More dependence.
They call it free economy. Now I know why. Lots of free money to be had.
Again, I'd be pretty pieved off if I was an American tax payer struggling away... cause someone making money some place (select few).

Posted by: jac | Sep 22, 2008 5:08:02 PM

I agree. Why should responsible consumers pay the bill for people that decided to make risky purchases.

Posted by: JOE | Sep 22, 2008 5:10:40 PM

I'm an old timer, so indulge me a bit. There are some similarities of today and the crash of 1929. But remember one thing - there was a clear law that separate banks (which take deposits and make loans) and brokers and investment houses. The crash in 1929 followed a speculative boom that had taken hold in the late 1920s, which had led hundreds of thousands of Americans to invest heavily in the stock market, a significant number even borrowing money to buy more stock (well that hasn't changed much since there are now margins, puts, etc). By August 1929, brokers were routinely lending small investors more than 2/3 of the face value of the stocks they were buying (in the housing market that can also be an issue when money was given for loans when assessors were on the dole for more than real house value, deceptive loan officers and "snake oil" salesmen).In 199 the rising share prices encouraged more people to invest; people hoped the share prices would rise further. Speculation thus fueled further rises and created an economic bubble - now that similarity with today is freightening. All that being said we as a nation have always taken our economic stability to be a collective one. In the crash of 1929 it was private investors who tried to prevent the decline (many of the wealthy bought steel stock at ridiculous high prices, but it still crashed) but government did intercede and stop the fall. Today, since FDIC secures the normal cash deposit and in reality the stock market is much like betting on horses I really don't see why the taxpayer is bailing out anyone. Yes (YES) don't yell at me there will be great, great pain - but I honestly believe that this planned bailout is a delay of pain of which we have never seen in this country which follows a clear separation of the wealthy/middle-class and working poor. I would never wish anything like the depression on any nation (soup lines, apple carts, desperation to the extreme and real poverty), but a whole lot of dirt is being swept under the rug because accountability, responsibility and honesty wasn't at work in America's big business - and I don't see anything in the bailout that changes that. (By the way, we survived because we had a little 15 acre hillside farm that provided the basics - and even with that the times were so very difficult.) Smarter people than I certainly will have to figure out this one - but my grandchildren and their children are going to pay for pure greed, corruption and frankly what I consider blatant exploitation and criminality.

Posted by: OnTheGloryRoad | Sep 22, 2008 5:11:09 PM

WHAT WILL BE THE RESULT?

I suspect inflation will rise. Printing of money of this magnitude will cause hyper inflation if dished into the economy all at once instead of letting it simmer into the economy over a long period of time.
So, inflation will rise. The banks will state that interest rates have to rise. Good claim to the game!
Interest rates will rise haulting the housing market even further. Making the economy really nose dive!
Government will have to raise taxes.
Further driving the economy into recession.
Where did the 700 billion go to?
The tax payers money. Money doesn't grow on trees! For we live on a finite planet, I think! (except for the sunshine, which is free energy!).

Most likely to pay off foreign debt so select few can build a nice big house and drive a big fine car in a big fine fenced lot!

good god we are stupid!
Strangest creatures on the planet.

Posted by: jac | Sep 22, 2008 5:12:45 PM

geneonlbk - $700e9/300e6 people = $2333 per person. If Ron Paul is correct the eventual bailout will be in the trillions. This means probably about $7000 per person not including interest that will never be paid off. Maybe this money could go to what you are alluding to.

Posted by: Ben Straub | Sep 22, 2008 5:12:54 PM

"Loan Titans Paid McCain Adviser Nearly $2 Million

Senator John McCain’s campaign manager was paid more than $30,000 a month for five years as president of an advocacy group set up by the mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to defend them against stricter regulations, current and former officials say.

Mr. McCain, the Republican candidate for president, has recently begun campaigning as a critic of the two companies and the lobbying army that helped them evade greater regulation as they began buying riskier mortgages with implicit federal backing. He and his Democratic rival, Senator Barack Obama, have donors and advisers who are tied to the companies.

But last week the McCain campaign stepped up a running battle of guilt by association when it began broadcasting commercials trying to link Mr. Obama directly to the government bailout of the mortgage giants this month by charging that he takes advice from Fannie Mae’s former chief executive, Franklin Raines, an assertion both Mr. Raines and the Obama campaign dispute.

Incensed by the advertisements, several current and former executives of the companies came forward to discuss the role that Rick Davis, Mr. McCain’s campaign manager and longtime adviser, played in helping Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac beat back regulatory challenges when he served as president of their advocacy group, the Homeownership Alliance, formed in the summer of 2000. Some who came forward were Democrats, but Republicans, speaking on the condition of anonymity, confirmed their descriptions."

SEE: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/22/us/politics/22mccain.html?_r=1&adxnnl=1&oref=slogin&ref=us&adxnnlx=1222103488-5de8RfsUDRInL0G4at2vFw

Posted by: caliguy55 | Sep 22, 2008 5:13:01 PM

geneonlbk - I forgot to mention I think homeowners shouls accept responsibility for their choices.

Posted by: Ben Straub | Sep 22, 2008 5:14:06 PM

Why would anyone want to be President over this mess!!!

Posted by: nagob | Sep 22, 2008 5:17:39 PM

"but my grandchildren and their children are going to pay for pure greed, corruption and frankly what I consider blatant exploitation and criminality."

AGREED 150%.
Damn shame really damn shame.
I surely hope many American families don't get caught in all of this. But, most likely they have in all the market hype. Banks handed out money like candy. Enough rope for people to hang themselves with. The fishers come calling now. What goes up must come down. Simple physics. To me, everything can be related to physical models of the planet, even the economy. For we are all governed by the laws of the planet in one form or other. To govern means to avoid "over heating". The economy was hot. Now they are pouring even more fuel on it! Thinking it is some infinite equation that can go on and on.

Damn, I surely hope many families don't get hurt. For a lost family is a lost generation. For many generations that have to clean up the mess.

Something should have been done a long time ago. Governing before it overheated.

Posted by: jac | Sep 22, 2008 5:18:38 PM

The greedy home owners that financed more than they could ever afford are just as much to blame as Wall Street.

Posted by: Doug | Sep 22, 2008 5:20:27 PM

Let the homeowners face the music. Why do the rest of us have to pay for their stupidity? If the government is going to rescue everybody whenever irresponsible decisions are made, why play by the rules? This does not give you a reason to be smart and use good sense about anything. Does the US need money in a hurry? Bring the troops home as soon as possible!

Posted by: ivan | Sep 22, 2008 5:26:20 PM

"The greedy home owners that financed more than they could ever afford are just as much to blame as Wall Street"

Depends on how you look at it. It's all market hype!
From the haydays of the high tech boom. The masses followed like sheep to pasture! Everyone buying at high prices then turning over or keeping.

Tell me that the select few running the show don't realize that the masses will move this way! Of course they do. Just take a basic 101 course in university!
When the masses move, move the opposite direction!

Lots of people are going to get nabbed by all this. But, its the tax payer that has to foot the bill at the end of the show.
Someone should be monitoring for red flags in the market place!
Stopping/inhibiting/mitigating this trend we have seen over and over again (in 10 year cycles).
To a more sustainable economic cycle with real jobs!
(opps! Someone took Americas real sustainable jobs! Innovative jobs! right from out under yah!)

debt nation.
With future generations stuck with the bill.
Tell me that 700,000,000,000,000 isn't going to hurt the US tax payer!
(aside from the fact that interest rates will most likely increase soon)

ouch. It's gonna hurt like hell.

Posted by: jac | Sep 22, 2008 5:27:16 PM

why is it,a black man gets beaten by the cops and there are protest marches.The gov.tries to stop migrant workers and there are protest marches. And we are all being robbed by big oil and crooked government and nobody does a thing about it?

Posted by: squicker | Sep 22, 2008 5:31:16 PM

That is too big of a payout, too big. I'm a democrat and believe me none of us think that is a good number at all. That will have increased the national debt over 1.2 trillion this year alone. I think that we have been raped by these speculators and they want us to throw money at them to save them basically from personal ruination. I think a better plan would be to legistlatively force them to sell all the mortgages at auction and whatever doesn't get paid, doesn't get paid. If the company bankrupts then the mortgages get sold to other US companies at acution. Lifes tough.

Posted by: Scotti | Sep 22, 2008 5:41:53 PM

i am so sick of what the republicans have done to this once great nation. i cant wait until obama stomps mcbush and teh democrats gain many more seats in congress so we can turn around this country turn it back from the open pit to hell bush and his nazi republicans wanted to push us in.

Posted by: tom | Sep 22, 2008 5:42:47 PM

Bottom line and Im not saying its all President Bush's fault but this finance situation as well as a list of failures has happened on the GOP watch and with a Rep sitting in the White House. Just like if a Lt. messes up on a ship the Capt is responsible for everything that happens on that ship. Why reward the Rep's with four more years after the last eight.

Posted by: CW | Sep 22, 2008 5:52:41 PM

And we worry about these politicians being qualified to be VP or President. The congress is woefully incompetent to make these decisions. Any good idea has a partisan string attached that offends the other party and poisons it. I don’t expect these amateur welfare state economists to come up with any consensus. They have been too interested in filling the pockets of their special interest sponsors that the consequence of their deeds has come due. And now they are inept to protect the American people. They are even now looking for foreign money to help. Be assured that foreign money will manipulate our economy in the future. Say so long to a free and independent United States. Our politicians have sold us out.

Posted by: MBell_TX | Sep 22, 2008 5:53:29 PM

CW -
The congress is a separate branch of government. Do you mean to tell me that Bush is responsible for an incompetent congress? It's a different ship.

Posted by: MBell_TX | Sep 22, 2008 5:58:16 PM

We the American people are witnessing the decline of our economic society because of this collapse of capitalistic society, now don't get me wrong im all for the buck cause it pays my bills and takes care of the familiy but these companies looking for a bailout from the gov't make it worse not just for the people they do business with or have a loan through them with but now the American people have to suffer because a 700 biliion dollar buyout plan....Republican, Democrat or whatever who is to say who is right anymore they are all interested in self preservation and not the preservation of the people within or nation or the nation in general. I say this because most of them hold large stock these companies and their special interest groups.Why should the American people have to pay for bad business practices by extremely large companies?

Posted by: chris | Sep 22, 2008 6:07:00 PM

CW -
The congress is a separate branch of government. Do you mean to tell me that Bush is responsible for an incompetent congress? It's a different ship.
-----------Posted by: MBell_TX |-----------Good point and yes they are, thats why no one can put flat blame on either party. However it will be perceived as another failure of the current administration. I am a Obama supporter and cant stand the way the Dem Congress has acted over the last two years. I think they wanted people to suffer so the Rep would be blamed. They also didnt do anything they promised. Making people suffer over political agendas should be a crime.--In saying that the Rep held congress of 6 years and Rep held House for five were not any better.
I am scared that McCain and Palin think to much like Bush and will bring little change. Palin wont be able to do anything nor write policy has VPs cant and will be basically atie breaker for the Senate. I will vote Obama.

Posted by: CW | Sep 22, 2008 6:08:27 PM

Greedy home owners? No greedy speculators buying single family homes as an investment maybe. Greenspan was telling poor dumb American Schmoes that variable interest mortgages were a good deal just a few years ago. Blaming the folks who dreamed of buying a house and had faith in the financial system is just idiotic.

Posted by: XfreemanX | Sep 22, 2008 6:09:35 PM

Let’s look at the facts.

Ronald Reagan was the godfather of deregulation. As president he eliminated many of the safeguards installed by FDR to ensure a safe banking and investment climate.

McCain’s chief economic advisor, Phil Gramm railroaded the legislation that created the current Wall Street meltdown. For 8 years, McCain did nothing. He favored total deregulation.

Now he wants some sort of oversight committee. And who does he plan to appoint? Donald Trump? We’ve seen oversight McCain style for the last 8 years. The polluters regulate the EPA; and the pharmaceuticals regulate the FDA. McCain approved of the appointment of Chris Cox, whom McCain now wants to fire. If we were to create an oversight committee for the bailout, McCain would appoint lobbyists cronies or K Street crooks to run it.

Obama has long ago called for responsible, tough regulation to prevent wall Street disasters. He is demanding that the benefits go to Main Street not Wall Street. He proposes modest tax hikes on the rich to balance the budget.

My only complaint is that these proposals do not go far enough. The rich robbed working class Americans. The rich must give the money back. We need to cancel all the tax benefits the rich enjoy and hefty surtax on the incomes of all the multi=millionaires and billionaires. It’s time for Cindy McCain to get by with one car, not 13, and figure her household budget on one kitchen table, just like the rest of us.

Posted by: William Joseph Miller | Sep 22, 2008 6:13:42 PM

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