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Economic Woes: Will It Ever End?

September 12, 2008 11:46 AM

ABC News Charles Herman reports: With word on the street that Lehman Brothers could be sold off as early as this weekend and with other institutions like Washington Mutual and Merrill Lynch seeing their stock price under assault, it leaves you wondering.

Who is next? When will it end?

Ap_economy_080912_main While no one can foresee the answer to the first question -- if they could, they’d make a mint in today’s volatile market -- the answer to the second one always comes back to one answer.

The turmoil will start ending after the housing market stabilizes.

But that light at the end of this financial tunnel is still not yet visible.

First off, home prices have to stop dropping so dramatically. As of June, home prices are down 15.4 percent, according to the Case-Shiller Index from Standard & Poor’s.

Next, the number of homes for sale has to decrease. Currently, there are 11.2 months of existing homes for sale or 4.7 million homes with for sale signs in the front yard. That’s just too much. Economists look to six months worth of inventory to promote home price increases.

Then again, even if there are buyers, mortgages have become harder to obtain as banks worry about providing any loan that has the word “mortgage” in it.

Finally, we can’t forget foreclosures. On Friday, we learned that foreclosures shot up 27 percent in August compared with a year ago. There are more than 303,800 homes in some stage of foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, the largest number of homes in some stage of foreclosure since the group started tracking foreclosures in January 2005.

Taken together, these are all preventing a recovery in the housing market. Economists and other housing analysts now believe we could see the bottom sometime in 2009. Unfortunately, there won’t be a press release announcing it, so all of us will have to read the housing tea leaves to uncover when this will all end.

Until then, expect more bad news from Wall Street and, increasingly, Main Street.

September 12, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (55)

User Comments

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Well they won't if we vote for McCain/Palin and another 8 years of what we have.
We did not have this with President Clinton. I know Republicans like to blame him but they have been in charge for 8 years with a REPUBLICAN CONGRESS FOR SIX YEARS so there is no excuse. We have a huge deficit and Pres. Clinton left them with a huge surplus. Wake up everyone!

Posted by: Barb | Sep 12, 2008 12:07:45 PM

The Pyramid schemes have collapsed but don`t worry newer versions will be right along.

Posted by: Boris | Sep 12, 2008 12:11:47 PM

The root cause of the American financial problems are debt. We allowed to many credit cards to be issued, too many houses were financed on questionable credit, and there was run away government spending.

Honestly, I give the USA less than ten years because of its financial condition.

Posted by: Alan Greenspan | Sep 12, 2008 12:12:09 PM

Proves what I've said for years, "I've never met a really smart banker", and the current fiasco prove it. You would think that the only thing they have to sell is money, they'd get it right. But greed and stupidity always raises its ugley head.

Posted by: mike | Sep 12, 2008 12:15:04 PM

As long as we and our country allow our corporations to displace American workers and send their jobs overseas to India (like Bank of America, Wachovia, Chase, Citi, IBM, etc) our economy will continue to digress. Our jobs are leaving this country and until we do something to stop it, the downward spiral is going to continue!

Posted by: Financial Analyst | Sep 12, 2008 12:17:19 PM

How many members of congress and the senate looked the other way after they received 'sweetheart' loans from the mortgage company? (And that includes BHO)

Posted by: dl | Sep 12, 2008 12:18:58 PM

What has the do nothing liberal congress done to help? ...NOTHING! Pelosi, Reid, Clinton and the rest of the Dem-wit congress have actually made things worse! It won't get better until McCain and Palin are elected!

Posted by: Ed | Sep 12, 2008 12:29:02 PM

The greed in the banking industry is mind boggling and we can look forward to more of it if McCain is put in the White House. Repugs only think about the price of things today and whether they might have to pay some taxes. They do not look to the future to see what their policies will bring to the people.

Posted by: Two-cats | Sep 12, 2008 12:32:38 PM

Wake Up Sheeple! We need a complete new CON Gress - - - None of them care about "We The Middle Class" !

Posted by: Dave | Sep 12, 2008 12:32:58 PM

What we definitly need is a profound response to be the utmost holy and obedient to God through Jesus Christ. Once we do this, we can then utilize His Word, the Bible to solve our national debt. God's solution is found in the book of Deuteuronomy 15:1-11. The year of Jubilee! God speaks that after seven years if anyone owes any debt that it should be released. We need to get our government and other governments just to relax the National Debt. Just drop what everyone owes and start all over again. If we want God's blessing on this, we need to accept His Son Jesus as our own personal Savior. We also need to bring God's Salvation Power to Russia, Connunist Korea, and the Middle East. We are not going to get anywhere if a nuclear war should break out. I pray that all will come under repentance unto the knowledge of Jesus Christ. This is really the only way of which we can be truly saved and blessed. God bless America. God bless everyone!!!

Posted by: Debra M. Farris | Sep 12, 2008 12:36:27 PM

What we definitly need is a profound response to be the utmost holy and obedient to God through Jesus Christ. Once we do this, we can then utilize His Word, the Bible to solve our national debt. God's solution is found in the book of Deuteuronomy 15:1-11. The year of Jubilee! God speaks that after seven years if anyone owes any debt that it should be released. We need to get our government and other governments just to relax the National Debt. Just drop what everyone owes and start all over again. If we want God's blessing on this, we need to accept His Son Jesus as our own personal Savior. We also need to bring God's Salvation Power to Russia, Connunist Korea, and the Middle East. We are not going to get anywhere if a nuclear war should break out. I pray that all will come under repentance unto the knowledge of Jesus Christ. This is really the only way of which we can be truly saved and blessed. God bless America. God bless everyone!!!

Posted by: Debra M. Farris | Sep 12, 2008 12:36:29 PM

One thing I have not heard from any financial commentators is the huge bubble of Baby Boomers that may have started selling and downsizing. This is part of the excess inventory and will become larger as more and more Boomers move into retirement age.

This housing problem is not going away soon. Studies I have done show that if the usual one third to one half of retirees downsize, there will not be enough people to buy their higher prices house and if they do sell will consume the smaller size houses that younger buyers usually start with.

Posted by: Bob | Sep 12, 2008 12:38:04 PM

American credit card debt has been allowed to run out of control, lenders 2 years ago were making questionable loans, on questionable equity, where was the gov't intervention back then? We are now faced with the hardest task of putting it all back together when it isn't something that can be fixed overnight, or even in a few months. Let's get the election over with, get consumer confidence back, and then..PERHAPS, we will start to slowly turn things around. It took a long time to create the problem, it's gonna take a much longer time to fix it. Hunker down people, the headwind is growing stronger and won't stop until we have some kind of positive signs day after day and month after month in the markets and the press.

Posted by: ugggggh | Sep 12, 2008 12:51:27 PM

If our country would put jobs back in the united states, not overseas, and us Americans stop buying foreign made products, we could turn this whole ecomony around. We can not keep sending jobs over seas...work needs to stay right here in the US..and if it means all Americans boycott all foreign made products, and make our own products here in our own country, we will be giving jobs back to our own who will then spend their money in our country.....

Posted by: nancy | Sep 12, 2008 12:54:02 PM

the solution is simple drill and get the price of gas back to 250 a gallon and you will see all things get back online for prices and when the price of gas gets back to 250 all other prices drop and if they dont then we boycott that item i really hope john mccain becomes president to keep us safe and sarah to help save the people of america some money where she can and hope they both get drilling so when we need it we have it why should the people of other countries get oil off of florida coast and we dont get it for ourselves

Posted by: deborah | Sep 12, 2008 1:04:11 PM

the solution is simple drill and get the price of gas back to 250 a gallon and you will see all things get back online for prices and when the price of gas gets back to 250 all other prices drop and if they dont then we boycott that item i really hope john mccain becomes president to keep us safe and sarah to help save the people of america some money where she can and hope they both get drilling so when we need it we have it why should the people of other countries get oil off of florida coast and we dont get it for ourselves

Posted by: deborah | Sep 12, 2008 1:04:14 PM

The Republicans seem now to be
SCREWING THE RICH AND POOR ALIKE
Four more years of this ....
I don't think so...
The Straight Talk Express should
be called
STRAIGHT TO THE POOR HOUSE EXPRESS~~~

McBush and Friend .. JUST Vote when hell
Freezes Over....

Posted by: Anita Yova | Sep 12, 2008 1:17:58 PM

We have reshaped companies so that they make money and not products and now that ploy has destroyed industry and business in this country. Financial people are allowed to buy successful business drive the stock up and rape the pensions and retirement plans; give big bonuses to a few and fold. We no longer have a market for industrial jobs and the rich can live in Greece or other pristine places and watch the U.S.A founder.

Posted by: Oscar Lestrad | Sep 12, 2008 1:20:04 PM

deborah--- well the oil companies have massive amounts of oil leases they should drill there first if they find no oil or when it is dry then we give them more. the greedy oil companies just want it all and i guarantee the price of oil will not go down.. my moms oldest brother was the vice president of super america oil company and i asked him he sai dthere is no way gas will ever go below $3 a gallon unless we stop useing it as long as we burn fossil fuel prices will stay high.

Posted by: tom | Sep 12, 2008 1:20:26 PM

You're all a bunch of whiners!!! This recession is all mental!!!

Posted by: Chris, Atlanta, GA | Sep 12, 2008 1:30:21 PM

The GOP won't rest until we're all laid off and kicked out of our houses. Free trade ain't the way to go John. We're free traded out here in America

Posted by: Bob | Sep 12, 2008 1:40:13 PM

Is Bush Still Claiming a Robust Economy ?

Posted by: Shawn | Sep 12, 2008 1:45:15 PM

Ed, you are about as dumb as a box of rocks: "What has the do nothing liberal congress done to help? ...NOTHING! Pelosi, Reid, Clinton and the rest of the Dem-wit congress have actually made things worse! It won't get better until McCain and Palin are elected!"

Right, vote the party in AGAIN that gave tax breaks to the rich and allowed all the ENRON-type fiascos because there was a liberal congress that is in bed with the Republicans instead of truly acting as an opposition party. How can you even begin to blame anybody but Bushco and his corporate welfare state? Your tax money went to Halliburton et al, and now you want to blame Dems? Dumb as a box of #^$#@# rocks.

Posted by: Bill | Sep 12, 2008 1:46:04 PM

WE, not the government, got ourselves into this mess, and it's sad to see people from both sides of the aisle blaming it on our politicians. WE stretch ourselves too thin financially. WE buy more than we can afford. WE load ourselves with debt. Not because the big bad government lets us, but because most people aren't as sharp as they think they are. It has long been the assumption that houses are "investments", and that the investment will always pay off. That cannot be promised of ANY asset. What happened to buying a house just to live in it? At the rate home prices increased over the last decade, it's no wonder this is happening and no, I don't think it'll end soon, but it kinda serves us right. The banks and realtors and yes, even the government played small parts in manipulating that perception of the invincible investment over time, but WE fell for it. That said, if our government weren't driving us so far into debt as a nation that IN ONE YEAR WE ACCUMULATE ENOUGH INTEREST...YES INTEREST... TO BUY A HOUSE FOR EVERY AMERICAN FAMILY (largely to finance a war for a nation with billions in surplus), they might be in a better position to help struggling families and find a way to re-build industry, ANY industry, in the land of the free and the home of the greedy.

Posted by: mstroeper | Sep 12, 2008 1:48:07 PM

Drill, drill baby drill our way out of this mess? Some people have nearly zero ability to actually think

Posted by: Edward | Sep 12, 2008 1:49:43 PM

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