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Relief at the Gas Pump ... But for How Long?

November 18, 2008 7:00 AM

Abc_gomstyn_080812_main ABC News' Alice Gomstyn reports: There’s a lot less pain at the pump these days.

Gas prices have fallen once again (for more information, click on the chart below, which includes new numbers from the Energy Information Administration) and crude oil closed at $54.95 a barrel yesterday –- down more than 40 percent from a year ago.

Gaschartnov172008_2 It’s good news, of course, for motorists but not for oil-rich countries that had gotten used to flying high on soaring energy prices. Can they actually do anything to reverse the downward trend (and ultimately trigger the return of pump pain)?

A couple of experts told me that, as of now, not really.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold a Nov. 29 special session and there’s speculation that, despite statements to the contrary by OPEC’s president, the cartel will cut its oil production targets -– a move designed to boost price by lowering supply.

But the cartel likely won’t be successful because, for one thing, some members are notorious for not actually complying with production cuts announced by the organization, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of the oil trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates.

“OPEC doesn’t seem to have enough broad-based support across the membership to offset the slippage in demand we’re seeing globally,” Ritterbusch said.

Cutting production means that, even if prices do rise, member countries will ultimately sell less oil.

“Most of them cheat and they don’t cut as much as they say they’re going to cut because they need the revenue,” Ritterbusch said.

That revenue has been increasingly hard to come by because of the continuing drop in global demand, said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Group.

“I don’t know if OPEC has the ability to cut production deep enough” to compensate for that decline, Flynn said.

Take, for instance, last month: the cartel announced it was cutting 1.5 million barrels from its daily production cap ... and prices still went down.

Once the economy –- and with it, demand -– rebounds, consumers could feel the impact of OPEC production cuts, Flynn said.

For now, he said, OPEC “can talk a good game," but that’s about it.

With reports by ABC News' Charles Herman.

November 18, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (41)

User Comments

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They did a production cut already once this year of 1 million barrels or more and the price of oil keeps going down. The USA is not that stupid.

Posted by: republican_paulie | Nov 18, 2008 8:30:18 AM

We have to keep up the good work in the way we've been conserving gas. We have to work harder to conserve more. we have to send a message to these oil producing nations that if they force the price up, in a few years nobody will need it because we got tired of paying the prices and now decided to go on alternative energy. We have found the way to beat them. If the prices go up, then we have to start a boycott. We should start a boycott of exxon and mobile gas first. That would force them to lower their prices and the competition would have to follow. We will be ready for them if the price goes up again.

Posted by: Will | Nov 18, 2008 8:33:29 AM

Don't forget that it was the speculators that started the price rise last year. Look what they done to our country. That is what started the big economic downward spiral. That is what started the rise in prices on food and other everyday needs. That is what started less money in the consumers pockets to keep the economy going. That is what started people getting scared to spend whatever extra money they had. That is what started people losing their jobs. Mr. Obama, don't let them do it to us again. Stop the speculators and the Oil Companies from bringing us down.

Posted by: Will | Nov 18, 2008 8:39:14 AM

WE SHOULD BE TRADING WHEAT AT THE SAME PRICE PER BUSHEL AS OIL IS PER BARREL

AND BRING THE WORLD ECONOMY MORE IN LINE WITH REALITY

Posted by: BURLEIGH BINNING | Nov 18, 2008 8:42:48 AM

Has anyone thought to look at what we were paying for a gallon of gas when it was $54 a barrel originally? We should be paying an average of $1.50 a gallon. Anyone seen that price yet? We are still being robbed at the pump!

Posted by: js45601 | Nov 18, 2008 8:46:55 AM

Let the other major countries use Oil. America should finally be getting out of their dependency on oil. Let all American make it happen. We can do it. Keep working toward that goal and create new jobs along the way.

Posted by: Hipski | Nov 18, 2008 8:47:41 AM

To JS45601: I was thinking the samething just last week. I was listening to a news radio show and a gentleman called in about that but he pretty much was brushed off.

They are going to continue to do so in order to still make profits off the hard working consumer. They know where it should be but they are playing of the emotions of people who are just happpy to no longer being paying nearl $4.

There is so much stealing going on towards the middle class that it is a shame and they all need to go to jail from the federal government, big oil, wall street and so on!

Posted by: spring | Nov 18, 2008 8:54:34 AM

The crude oil price should be helped to stabilize around 70$: under 70$, some of the producing countries will be confronted to huge financial challenges. That means the industry will lose some of of its clients at a time when the home market is depressed...

Posted by: Ben Bourrigault | Nov 18, 2008 8:58:42 AM

Save GM, buy a Hummer! Save Ford, buy an Excursion! Save Chrysler, buy a 300c. There is no profit margin in the little economy cars unless they charge $20,000 and then people will just turn around and buy a cheaper foreign car. The environmental whackos are killing America and too many people are buying their scam, hook, line and sinker.

Posted by: toby hill | Nov 18, 2008 9:00:27 AM

I am loving seeing these moronic OPEC countries (and Russia) shot themselves in the foot. the Saudis can't finish their major domestic construction projects, Russia's tough talk has gone the way of their GDP, and has anyone heard from that nut in Venezuela? These idiots locked into the $150 bbl mentality and spent the money before they even finished drilling the holes, and shot their mouths of in the mean time. While the large international oil companies sat back and waited for the price to come back down. Those countries economies are circling the bowl, while Exxon's stock is down 5%.

I am absolutely loving it.

Posted by: Greg | Nov 18, 2008 9:15:34 AM

Not every thing white & black.
If gas didn't go to $4 a gallon, would you ever consider get off your F150 or Hummer and buy prius, probably not. So $4 was good.

Posted by: Alex | Nov 18, 2008 9:19:07 AM

Well it's nice to see a lot of cities running their mass transportation buses on Hydrogen and possibly Ford can consider to make an affordable car running on hydrogen. The technology is out there folks-once we've integrated all the alternatives gas will be 5 cents a gallon.

Posted by: Barb | Nov 18, 2008 9:21:15 AM

Read this slowly. Let it sink in. Quietly we go, Sheep to slaughter.

Does anybody out there have any memory of the reason given for the government’s creation the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY during the Carter Administration?

Anybody? Anything? No? I didn't think so.

Bottom line . . we've spent several hundred billion dollars in support of an agency the reason for which not one person who reads this can remember.

Ready? It was very simple, and at the time everybody thought it very appropriate.

The Department of Energy was created on August 4, 1 977 to

”LESSEN OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.”

HEY, PRETTY EFFICIENT, HUH?

AND NOW IT'S 2008, 31 YEARS LATER, AND THE BUDGET FOR THIS NECESSARY DEPARTMENT IS $24.2 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, THEY HAVE 16,000 FEDERAL EMPLOYEES, APPROXIMATELY 100,000 CONTRACT EMPLOYEES AND LOOK AT THE JOB THEY HAVE DONE!

THIS IS WHERE YOU SLAP YOUR FOREHEAD AND SAY 'WHAT WAS I THINKING?'

And now we are going to turn the Banking system over to them? God Help us.

Posted by: political_critic | Nov 18, 2008 9:36:56 AM

Read this slowly. Let it sink in. Quietly we go, Sheep to slaughter.

Does anybody out there have any memory of the reason given for the government’s creation the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY during the Carter Administration?


Anybody? Anything? No? I didn't think so.


Bottom line . . we've spent several hundred billion dollars in support of an agency the reason for which not one person who reads this can remember.


Ready? It was very simple, and at the time everybody thought it very appropriate.

The Department of Energy was created on August 4, 1 977 to


”LESSEN OUR DEPENDENCE ON FOREIGN OIL.”

HEY, PRETTY EFFICIENT, HUH?

AND NOW IT'S 2008, 31 YEARS LATER, AND THE BUDGET FOR THIS NECESSARY DEPARTMENT IS $24.2 BILLION DOLLARS A YEAR, THEY HAVE 16,000 FEDERAL EMPLOYEES, APPROXIMATELY 100,000 CONTRACT EMPLOYEES AND LOOK AT THE JOB THEY HAVE DONE!


THIS IS WHERE YOU SLAP YOUR FOREHEAD AND SAY 'WHAT WAS I THINKING?'

And now we are going to turn the Banking system over to them? God Help us.

Posted by: political_critic | Nov 18, 2008 9:41:18 AM

Many federal agencies had been established to handle numerous aspects of U.S. energy policy, even back as far as the Manhattan Project and the subsequent Atomic Energy Commission. The reason for putting them all under a single department was the 1973 energy crisis, in response to which President Jimmy Carter proposed creation of the department. Legislation was passed by Congress and signed into law on August 4, 1977.

Posted by: Sherminator | Nov 18, 2008 9:59:34 AM

that was the middle east weapon against us. they had us by the balls. they raised oil prices so high, it got us in to a rescission. Now oil prices are low, but for how long? Is this there tactic to just screw us again. Its not fair that we have to suffer from those OPEC bastereds. The hell with them. I hope they all burn in HELL!

Posted by: Mark | Nov 18, 2008 10:04:07 AM

Boycotting one oil company will make NO difference WILL. If one oil company has a surplus, the others buy from them. So they all spread it around. The only people that will be hurt by boycotting exxon are the individual station owners. The oil company will just sell it's oil to other stations that don't carry a brand name (like Wawa, delta, pioneer, etc.) The only way to truely make a difference in price is by reducing consumption, in turn reducing demand. No more SUV's people. Buy a minivan instead and get over the soccer mom stigma. Buy a civic or focus instead of the explorer or blazer. You're not really getting that much more room and you're losing 10 MPG! So, if you want to keep funding terrorism, keep buying those SUV's and guzzling that gas. If we really looked into alternative fuels 30 years ago, we might not be dependent on foreign oil today. Let's not lose focus this time around now that gas doesn't cost $4 a gallon.

Posted by: Matt | Nov 18, 2008 10:07:22 AM

our biggest problem as some have said it is those greedy oil companies. Yes that's our problem. That's why we were paying so much at the pump. Well it would seem now like the oil companies have repented and they are no longer greedy. Problem solved. Until the price of oil goes up again. Then I suppose the oil companies will be greedy again. Or is it possible that the price of oil is more effected by market conditions. Why do people always want to apply a simple solution to a complex problem. Thank you democrat party your wind fall profit tax would have done nothing but made us pay more at the pump.

Posted by: dave | Nov 18, 2008 10:16:41 AM

The best thing we can possibly do is make mideast oil irrelevant. We need to keep cutting consumptions and pushing for alternative energy. Solar is expensive because so few of us use it. As for bailing out the automakers, I have some advice for them: start making cars that people actually want to buy (yeah, I drive a Kia Rio...32mpg for thousands less than the cheapest GM or Ford model). But I've yet to see any evidence that they "get it". Companies that do not respond to the marketplace go out of business. That's how a free market economy works, people. Would it hurt? Sure, in the short term. But in the long term it just creates more opportunity.

Posted by: Brian Levine | Nov 18, 2008 10:27:44 AM

People are driving smarting and saving money. They realized how expensive it is to own a car. Now they are getting a double savings in reduce gas prices and less consumption. It will be a matter of time before we become oil independent.

Posted by: Pam | Nov 18, 2008 10:30:59 AM

It's the multinational oil companies (GENERALLY US OWNED) that control the world oil market. OPEC generally dances to their tune. They made allot "Hey" last spring and summer ruining the US economy and ultimately tanking the world economies. Now demand is low...:) The threat of the new Obama administration actually bucking the trend of the past and going full speed with alternative energy development has them up to their old dirty tricks again. These unpatriotic companies have too much invested in existing oil reserves to allow alternative energy to go fort at this time. Once the American public get used to cheep gas and the "fire in our bellies" dies to develop alternative energy, then WHAMMO!!!! we get high oil prices again!!!! Hopefully the American public isn't that stupid this time. Full speed ahead on alternative and renewable energy. Let's neuter these greedy parasites once and for all.

Posted by: Dan | Nov 18, 2008 10:44:03 AM

They have lowered prices to help GM sell the SUVs and trucks that saturate EVERY car lot in America; but when Americans spend their tax refunds on that new SUV...the price will be over $3 a gallon by April for sure.

Posted by: DobermanSpencer | Nov 18, 2008 12:30:30 PM

Does anybody out there have any memory of the reason given for the government’s creation the DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY during the Carter Administration?


Politicalcritic,

Do not forget the Dept of Education was also "created" by Carter.

Now Obama wants to create a Dept of "Urban Ploicy"!

YEP...CHANGE WE CANT AFFORD !!!!!

Posted by: Mike_C | Nov 18, 2008 12:46:36 PM

The best thing we can possibly do is make mideast oil irrelevant. We need to keep cutting consumptions and pushing for alternative energy. Solar is expensive because so few of us use it. As for bailing out the automakers, I have some advice for them: start making cars that people actually want to buy (yeah, I drive a Kia Rio...32mpg for thousands less than the cheapest GM or Ford model). But I've yet to see any evidence that they "get it". Companies that do not respond to the marketplace go out of business. That's how a free market economy works, people. Would it hurt? Sure, in the short term. But in the long term it just creates more opportunity.
-----------------------------

Brian Levine.

First & Foremost, We need ot do more drilling here in the US. I do not care what "alternative energy plan" you buy into, NONE of thme are viable yet for the general public at an affordable rate, nor will any of them be for years to come!

We need to be able to control our own energy fate, and the most common sense solution is to use OUR resources, not pay through the nose for foreign ones!

People can cry all they want for "alternative" solutions, but NONE of them are hitting the streets anytime soon!

Posted by: Mike_C | Nov 18, 2008 12:52:03 PM


We're actually getting pretty close to that point as government taxes account for about 50cents/gallon.


Has anyone thought to look at what we were paying for a gallon of gas when it was $54 a barrel originally? We should be paying an average of $1.50 a gallon. Anyone seen that price yet? We are still being robbed at the pump!

Posted by: Sean | Nov 18, 2008 7:41:53 PM

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