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Relief at the Gas Pump ... But for How Long?

November 18, 2008 7:00 AM

Abc_gomstyn_080812_main ABC News' Alice Gomstyn reports: There’s a lot less pain at the pump these days.

Gas prices have fallen once again (for more information, click on the chart below, which includes new numbers from the Energy Information Administration) and crude oil closed at $54.95 a barrel yesterday –- down more than 40 percent from a year ago.

Gaschartnov172008_2 It’s good news, of course, for motorists but not for oil-rich countries that had gotten used to flying high on soaring energy prices. Can they actually do anything to reverse the downward trend (and ultimately trigger the return of pump pain)?

A couple of experts told me that, as of now, not really.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will hold a Nov. 29 special session and there’s speculation that, despite statements to the contrary by OPEC’s president, the cartel will cut its oil production targets -– a move designed to boost price by lowering supply.

But the cartel likely won’t be successful because, for one thing, some members are notorious for not actually complying with production cuts announced by the organization, said Jim Ritterbusch, president of the oil trading advisory firm Ritterbusch and Associates.

“OPEC doesn’t seem to have enough broad-based support across the membership to offset the slippage in demand we’re seeing globally,” Ritterbusch said.

Cutting production means that, even if prices do rise, member countries will ultimately sell less oil.

“Most of them cheat and they don’t cut as much as they say they’re going to cut because they need the revenue,” Ritterbusch said.

That revenue has been increasingly hard to come by because of the continuing drop in global demand, said Phil Flynn, a senior energy trader at Alaron Trading Group.

“I don’t know if OPEC has the ability to cut production deep enough” to compensate for that decline, Flynn said.

Take, for instance, last month: the cartel announced it was cutting 1.5 million barrels from its daily production cap ... and prices still went down.

Once the economy –- and with it, demand -– rebounds, consumers could feel the impact of OPEC production cuts, Flynn said.

For now, he said, OPEC “can talk a good game," but that’s about it.

With reports by ABC News' Charles Herman.

November 18, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (41)

User Comments

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First & Foremost, We need ot do more drilling here in the US. I do not care what "alternative energy plan" you buy into, NONE of thme are viable yet for the general public at an affordable rate, nor will any of them be for years to come!

Mike_C

Nice idea, except that drilling will take years to have any effect as well and there simply isn't enough oil on U.S. soil or off the shore to have any appreciable effect on our economy or gas prices. The victor this centurie's spoils will go to is the one that forges ahead with new energy technologies and strategies. Peak oil is a simple fact we must consider in making plans for the future.

Posted by: Max | Nov 18, 2008 9:09:36 PM

no need to worry about high fuel prices. they will be going up soon. not a problem since breaking the 3 dollar barrier. by summer expect an average of 4 per gallon. for now, its a good time to take that vacation you have been dreaming about all these years. last chance.

Posted by: jeff m | Nov 18, 2008 10:33:01 PM

its interesting how americans talk about the middle east and russia ( or china). They give u oil and cheap goods and re-invest money backinto american by the billions every year which keeps the economy going , yet the anericans have the audacity to say bad things about them ?
you americans should have a better understanding who ur friends are....oh , i forgot , a typical american is the joe six pack guy who sucks up to his boss and wife !!!

Posted by: otto | Nov 19, 2008 8:37:42 AM

Give us oil and cheap products? Not hardly! SELL us oil (ie take our money) at often inflated prices and peddle cheap knock off products that drive our own companies out of business. How is this good for us? The number of times I have to throw cheaply made products away and buy more crummy replacements is just appalling and what's worse, is i can't even buy a good quality product because the companies who made them were driven out of business by the cheap import peddlers with their dime an hour labor. I'm tired of having to buy cheap junk and I'm tired of seeing our jobs leave this country. - phil

Posted by: Phil | Nov 19, 2008 12:59:22 PM

why does MILK cost more than gasoline?

Posted by: philosopherkingtomas | Nov 19, 2008 1:02:42 PM

Given the extreme over production in the last several months the US and othre like them have oil reserves higher then ever before. Any cuts in the near term will likely not have any effect not only because lack of co-operation, but implementation of these reduction are often implented months after reduction announcements. the price jump (or in this case stop falling for a short period after the announcment) but will continue to fall. Demand just isn't there, in the US, anywhere. I won't be placing any bets on oil until the automakers sort out their discussions with government.

Posted by: pessimist | Nov 19, 2008 4:15:18 PM

"Nice idea, except that drilling will take years to have any effect as well and there simply isn't enough oil on U.S. soil or off the shore to have any appreciable effect on our economy or gas prices. The victor this centurie's spoils will go to is the one that forges ahead with new energy technologies and strategies. Peak oil is a simple fact we must consider in making plans for the future." MAX

I love this mentality that since oil will not make us energy independent then let's not pursue more oil at all. So short sighted. Such a lack of understanding global markets. Even the threat of drilling sent oil prices down this summer. What would happen if we actually started to create a larger domestic supply for oil. Gee we might actually impact the world market and break the OPEC monopoly. Will oil alone make us energy independent? NO other energies will be necessary too like -insert your alternative fuels- if we don't drill for more oil we will look back 20 years from now and realize we are enslaved to our enemies because they will have the oil and we will be wishing we had drilled.

Posted by: Dave | Nov 19, 2008 5:24:57 PM

Nice idea, except that drilling will take years to have any effect as well and there simply isn't enough oil on U.S. soil or off the shore to have any appreciable effect on our economy or gas prices.
---------------------------------------

Max,

Try actually investigating this on your won instead of buying into liberal BS. IT WILL NOT TAKE 10 YEARS.

Total BS from the lefties & wacko environmentalists!

Posted by: Mike_C | Nov 20, 2008 9:56:10 AM

Gas is $1.76 gallon in my town in Minnesota.

I have heard that the oil fields in the Middle East developed by American oil companies, were built on the contingency that a percentage of the revenue from the oil sales HAD to be invested into U.S. T-notes to support our country financially. If that is so, the less money earned from oil sales, the fewer treasury notes are purchased. So while we may cheer that the OPEC nations are not profitting so abundantly, it is hurting the American coffers as well.

Secondly, I heard from the same source as above, that the price of oil is not set by OPEC, it is set by Wall Street. American greed on Wall Street profits OPEC, as well as itself.

I trust the source because he said in July, when a barrel of crude was at an all-time high, that the power-brokers on Stock Market were going push the price down and it would go to $50 quickly. He said that in July 2008. Well, today the price of a barrel of crude went just under $50.

The same gentleman said a gallon of gas would fall below $2.00, and here it is $1.76.

So just in case you might wonder what else Lindsey Williams said, he said the rejoicing in the streets over cheap gas would not last very long, if Saudi Arabia and the other OPEC countries who have loaned the U.S. billions stop loaning to us, or start asking for their money back!

Does anyone ever stop to wonder where our country gets the money to be $10 trillion in debt? China, Japan and yes, OPEC countries loan us billions.

You think the banking crisis of is bad -- what do you think it will be like if China and the others want their money back because their economies are failing in this financial crisis?

What will happen if the U.S. government goes bankrupt?

Think it can't happen?


Posted by: reb | Nov 20, 2008 10:14:20 PM

I feel sorry for OPEC..they shouldve let the oil price at a steady level instead of jacking up to 147. I mean around the 100 a barel mark. That way the econmy will still be in good shape and people wont lose their job. Now people are cuting back because they are getting away for big trucks and suvs.

Posted by: Tom Greem | Nov 21, 2008 12:45:24 PM

GW is setting up BO for the fall. GW has Big Oil in his pocket, and in 6 months when the price of gas is above $4 again, the Republicans are going to say "look at how our last administration left this country, this is what you get with the new office, we're worse off now".

Posted by: V G | Nov 21, 2008 4:09:28 PM

Reb:

Your comment is way of course; first of all, no one HAS to invest in Tnotes, countries in the middle east choose to do so because the dollar is,has, and will continue to be the reserve currency of choice. Furthermore, they peg their own currencies to the dollar.

Buying Tnotes doesn't directly support us, because of Treasury offering of bills, bonds, notes is handled by the primary dealers, who stand to buy these if no one else does- but someone does buy them because there is always a need to hold treasuries amongst institutional money managers. The fact that middle eastern countries bid on them only affects it indirectly.

You are correct in that OPEC doesn't directly control the price of crude oil beyond the price of extraction; it does however, influence the futures market (where oil contracts trade), in their capacity to cut/increase production; however, their efforts have largly been futile over time.

Third, foreign nations that hold Treasuries can't just demand payment when they want as treasuries are non-puttable, so they either hold them to maturity or sell them in the secondary market.

Lastly, our 10T dollar debt doesn't mean that we owe other countries 10T, but rather the sum represents the countries debt plus unfunded liabilities such as entitlement programs, and future expenditures.

Oh and one more thing, in times of global financial crisis, countries, like China, don't want their "money back"- in fact the opposite, they want dollars- tons of dollars. The U.S. Gov can't go bankrupt because it can simply print more money....


Posted by: Peter Parker | Nov 21, 2008 7:48:07 PM

Drill baby drill...the pockets of investment bankers.

The ivory tower on Wall Street kept betting and manipulating the oil market until they went broke. HAHAHAHA!!!!!

Posted by: crazykat1998 | Nov 22, 2008 9:47:18 PM

Test to see if I'm registered.

FWIW legislation shoiuld be passed that bans speculation on ANYTHING!

Posted by: wcmerle | Nov 25, 2008 4:26:44 PM

Brian Levine-Pearls of Wisdom right there. If we let these big guys go out of business, then better companies will rise to meet the need of the consumer.

Posted by: Patriot | Dec 1, 2008 7:30:07 PM

Now, the article. Didn't these same people tell us that we were going to be paying seven or eight bucks a gallon by now? If you ask me, prices WILL rise, but they won't skyrocket. We DO need to invest in other ways to get energy, but in the meantime, we should try to become as oil independent as possible. I don't care if there actually IS a Caribou in ANWR, because we need to get our oil. Another new thing about alternative energy. Have you heard about the new mini nuclear reactors that you will be able to get in a few years? They will cost around $10 million, (I think that was the price, I read an article on it)and will be able to provide electricity for 20,000 homes for 7-10 years, after which they will need to be reloaded. Expensive down payment, but GREAT pay-off! This will TOTALLY beat out coal for electricity!

Posted by: Patriot | Dec 1, 2008 7:38:25 PM

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