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Should You Still Believe in Buffett?
November 12, 2008 4:06 PM
ABC News' Bianna Golodryga reports: On a day when the Dow lost another 400 points or so, when Citigroup touched below $10 a share, GE is below $16 and Goldman is down another 9 percent, one major investor points out that the Oracle of Omaha's investment strategy has disappointed even his staunchest supporters.
No, Warren Buffett is not tied to Citi, but he is closely tied to GE and Goldman. This investor, it should be noted, is also one of Buffett's biggest fans. All praise for the man aside, his picks and his returns have seen better days. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has suffered major losses this year. The company recently reported a 77 percent drop in third-quarter net income, largely attributed to more than $1 billion on unrealized derivative losses and paid hurricane claims following hurricanes Gustav and Ike.
As for Buffet's own individual bets, well, they haven't paid off, either ... yet. Buffett invested a combined $8 billion in General Electric and Goldman Sachs, on terms only someone like Warren Buffett could pull off. They have yet to break even. Goldman's stock price since Buffett invested has gone from $125 to $75, and chatter, speculation and, yes, rumors on the street about GE's woes would make even the most bullish of investors think twice.
To his credit, Buffett has lived up to his nickname of "sage" during the current financial crisis. His voice, his rhetoric, his humor and his easy-to-understand logic have together made a welcome and reassuring voice for everyone from President-elect Barack Obama to the average man on the street. He's the toughest man to get an interview with these days, and his every word can move a stock. He's said this is the worst financial crisis he's seen in a long time, if ever.
So you can look at it from three different points of view. One, no one is perfect, and even the smartest investor in the world makes mistakes. Two, when he says he's a long-term investor, he really means LONG TERM. Or three, today's Buffett is more of a symbolic and iconic figure than a master stock picker. Buffett fans probably hope the second point of view is the right one, and while they'll likely accept the first one, I doubt they're ready to accept the third.
Read excerpts from Douglas Kass, a general partner of Seabreeze Partners Management, on why Buffett has "lost his groove" here.
November 12, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (103)
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We have to admit that we may be at the end of the road for Capitalism.
Posted by: bob | Nov 12, 2008 4:23:26 PM
Look, you miss the point if you don't understand or question Buffett. It's very simple really, are you in the market for the long haul or short gains? If you are in it for the long haul then any idiot that understand the economy would tell you, you buy stocks when they are low. NOT when they are high. If you don't have the guts to stick out this market and take some intials losses then you don't belong in the market...buy a wheelchair and sit on the sidelines. But in 10 years when the stocks have more than trippled don't come back crying that you missed the boat. The problem America is we are not patient, we want everything now as though there's no tomorrow. This, and the media no nothings, have caused the problems that we are in today. New Rule...if you don't have at least a PHD in economics you don't get to make comments about the economy. Enough of the blonde bimboes in the news telling us the sky is falling. I know it sells papers but other dumb people are listening to you and taking your dumb advice.
Posted by: Yes I do | Nov 12, 2008 4:30:53 PM
If this is your background and you don't have at least a million in cash in the bank you don't get to report on the economy...bachelor's degree in Russian/East European & Eurasian studies and a minor in economics. Hmm...minor in economics. Is that like basket weaving 101??
Posted by: New Rule | Nov 12, 2008 4:33:08 PM
Let's just say, "He is beyond my pay grade!".
Posted by: Maxy51 | Nov 12, 2008 4:33:26 PM
Let's just say, "He is beyond my pay grade!".
Posted by: Maxy51 | Nov 12, 2008 4:34:25 PM
Black man economics now. Old white haired white man go away.
Posted by: dashawn | Nov 12, 2008 4:39:35 PM
I think this mess is beyond anyone.
Posted by: jane | Nov 12, 2008 4:40:55 PM
Hey dashwan a Black man economics what does that mean? Why do you have to bring race into a serious situation like this?
You ging to buy stock in KFC and FUBU? You going to invest in Gold for your teefs and silver for your Bling, Bling!
Posted by: chuck | Nov 12, 2008 4:52:47 PM
Buffet or muppet. whats the difference? No one knows whats going on and least of all everyone who calls themselves an economist or financial expert or a fund manager or a person with a MBA. We are all sitting with a bag containing our retirement savings and it is getting close to empty and we are not knowing what the future is going to be. The government is bailing out every crook on wall street and the people on main street are getting nothing and people are feeling powerless. Que sera sera. Whatever will be will be.
Posted by: gjkotw01 | Nov 12, 2008 4:54:21 PM
Bob--not the end of Capitalism, but hopefully, the end of spending beyond one's means.
Posted by: NewCongress2010 | Nov 12, 2008 4:54:47 PM
Yes I Do makes good points except one does not need a PhD in Economics to understand the difference between long-term and speculation, rather , a strong stomach. The country could collapse, anything is possible but the chances are greater that it will recover and stocks will advance.
Posted by: Mark | Nov 12, 2008 4:58:05 PM
Buffet made money in the stock market over a time when the DOW had unbelievable growth. Anyone who had invested with moderate risk in quality companies would have made a killing. Buffet at least had the insight to throw money at stocks. He is now in the crapper with the rest of us with a lot more to lose. Ron Paul warned of the economic collapse years ago. This is the backside of the inflated bubble, and it is a very steep bubble.
Posted by: Huh | Nov 12, 2008 4:58:35 PM
Well, Buffett can stand to lose the money he recently invested. When you have billions it's no big deal. Most of us on the other hand are hurting and our 401K's have taken a huge hit that we can't afford.
Posted by: mom | Nov 12, 2008 4:59:43 PM
The phrase "Long term" in investing commonly means ten years of investment or longer. Warren Buffet and others will very likely be just fine. The author of this article should make some effort to define terms when making references to "long term" and "LONG TERM" (sic.)
Posted by: Andy Gainesville | Nov 12, 2008 5:08:15 PM
IMO, the stock market is just a casino that no one can predict with any certainty. If you look at the S&P 500 at the beginning of this decade compared to where it was even B4 the stock market upheaval in October, any $$ invested in Jan 2000 was basically dead money. Even someone like Buffet can't be consistently successful investing in the stock market so why should your average small investor?
Posted by: Agnostic Free Thinker | Nov 12, 2008 5:10:35 PM
I will NEVER stop believing in the man from Margaritaville.
Posted by: helloworld | Nov 12, 2008 5:10:41 PM
Andy Gainesville is right Longterm could mean 10 years but may be longer. We may never see growth to the extent we saw and that is besides the point, we expected a steady rise or even a bumpy ride but this is simply catastrophic to the extent that there is no trust in the system like it has forever lost our confidence and no matter what happens politically, someone has taken off with the loot and we are holding an almost empty bag.
Posted by: gjkotw01 | Nov 12, 2008 5:15:58 PM
What is it about you people who do not understand that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong," and that we are only into a "mental recession." What a bunch of whinners we all are! ;-)
Posted by: andre | Nov 12, 2008 5:25:03 PM
I will NEVER stop believing in the man from Margaritaville.
Posted by: helloworld | Nov 12, 2008 5:10:41 PM
yes and the coral reefers too!
Posted by: bah | Nov 12, 2008 5:31:05 PM
No, I don't beleive in any of these Tycoons. Greed for money corrupts and we are really seeing that now and paying a high price for the greed of congress.
Posted by: Sandy | Nov 12, 2008 5:36:14 PM
I do hold an MBA but this does not make me an expert but it does give me one up. Someone said here you have to have a PhD to talk about the economy. I disagree. We make the economy hard but it is simple almost to logical. people are whinning due to the knuckleheads leading this parade. We are asking the US Govt to bail out the banks/investment houses while the US govt is trillions in debt. Go figure!its like the 3 blind mice - where the f--- are they going? The time now is right to buy everything, including real estate. Buy low sell hifh - how much simpler does it have to get.
"What is it about you people who do not understand that "the fundamentals of the economy are strong," and that we are only into a "mental recession." What a bunch of whinners we all are! ;-)"
Posted by: tony | Nov 12, 2008 5:36:57 PM
Nearly two-thirds of the US economic activity/vitality is based on the consumer spending. At the present time, consumer confidence is lowest in last 40 plus years. The official national unemployment is about 6.7%, but if you include underemployed (part time job) and those who have given up looking for jobs, the national rate is well over 14%. Anything above 11% is depression, not recession. As in 1932, the new administration has to make big, bold, and smart investment to begin repairing the current situation.
Posted by: Vikram Patel | Nov 12, 2008 5:39:31 PM
That's Jimmie Buffet stupid not Warren!
Posted by: Hello | Nov 12, 2008 5:42:20 PM
i love it LOL
"That's Jimmie Buffet stupid not Warren!"
Posted by: tony | Nov 12, 2008 5:44:43 PM
Too little, too late ABC. For the last year or so, everyone in the main-stream media were touting Buffett's support/endorsement of Obama. I guess we have no choice now but to hope that his presidential endorsement works out better than his recent investment advice...
Posted by: aaron burr | Nov 12, 2008 5:47:24 PM
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