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Should You Still Believe in Buffett?

November 12, 2008 4:06 PM

Abc_golodryga_081112_mnABC News' Bianna Golodryga reports: On a day when the Dow lost another 400 points or so, when Citigroup touched below $10 a share, GE is below $16 and Goldman is down another 9 percent, one major investor points out that the Oracle of Omaha's investment strategy has disappointed even his staunchest supporters.

No, Warren Buffett is not tied to Citi, but he is closely tied to GE and Goldman. This investor, it should be noted, is also one of Buffett's biggest fans. All praise for the man aside, his picks and his returns have seen better days. Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has suffered major losses this year. The company recently reported a 77 percent drop in third-quarter net income, largely attributed to more than $1 billion on unrealized derivative losses and paid hurricane claims following hurricanes Gustav and Ike.Nm_buffett_081112_main

As for Buffet's own individual bets, well, they haven't paid off, either ... yet. Buffett invested a combined $8 billion in General Electric and Goldman Sachs, on terms only someone like Warren Buffett could pull off. They have yet to break even. Goldman's stock price since Buffett invested has gone from $125 to $75, and chatter, speculation and, yes, rumors on the street about GE's woes would make even the most bullish of investors think twice.

To his credit, Buffett has lived up to his nickname of "sage" during the current financial crisis. His voice, his rhetoric, his humor and his easy-to-understand logic have together made a welcome and reassuring voice for everyone from President-elect Barack Obama to the average man on the street. He's the toughest man to get an interview with these days, and his every word can move a stock. He's said this is the worst financial crisis he's seen in a long time, if ever.

So you can look at it from three different points of view. One, no one is perfect, and even the smartest investor in the world makes mistakes. Two, when he says he's a long-term investor, he really means LONG TERM. Or three, today's Buffett is more of a symbolic and iconic figure than a master stock picker. Buffett fans probably hope the second point of view is the right one, and while they'll likely accept the first one, I doubt they're ready to accept the third.

Read excerpts from Douglas Kass, a general partner of Seabreeze Partners Management, on why Buffett has "lost his groove" here.

November 12, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (103)

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I want pizza

Posted by: MyChemicalRomanceFAN | Nov 12, 2008 5:54:09 PM

The man is so out of touch with reality with his $60,000,000,000.00 (which he accumulated under minimal regulation) net worth. I find it ironic that he is now more than happy to have the rest of us pay higher taxes and give more to uncle sam as we try to achieve success. Buffet voted for the socialist, he has no more credibility except with those eagerly waiting for their handouts

Posted by: Dave | Nov 12, 2008 6:02:53 PM

NOBAMA in 2012

Posted by: Ryan | Nov 12, 2008 6:13:58 PM

As the article points out, nearly every Buffet pick this year is a loser. As I think we'll soon find out, his other pick, Obama, will keep his losing track record intact.

Posted by: bby | Nov 12, 2008 6:15:12 PM

Some people go to Las Vegas, knowing full well they will drop a thou or two or even more. Buffet simply chooses a different venue, and one where his losses may actually do others good: there is little cut for "the house" on Wall Street.

Personally, I am heartened that Obama seems to be listening to this man who believes that his fortune obligates him to a degree of responsibility toward his fellow human beings.

Posted by: Jordan | Nov 12, 2008 6:29:44 PM

Dear Bob at 4:23 PM: I do not believe we are at the end of the road for capitalism. We are at a cross road though. The people have spoken with the last election and we will try Socialism for a while. When Americans realize it produces less, they will have no choice but to come back to Capitalism. Only hope when they do, they abandon John Maynard Keynes Economics (Keynesian)This is the Economics that Wall Street just used and usher in Ludwig von Mises Economics. Abe Lincoln

Posted by: Abe Lincoln | Nov 12, 2008 6:37:12 PM

Dave - Sounds like you don't know Buffet. He lives in an ordinary house in an ordinary neighborhood. He expects his grown kids to make their own way in the world and not live of inheridence from him. He has said many times that he does not understand why the government takes a larger percent of his secretary's income than they do out of his. He volunteers to pay more in taxes and thinks it is wrong for the government not to be fair in how they tax the people. He thinks we should help people suffering in other countries. He thinks we should all be investing now instead of hording our money. And most of all, these are not hollow words because he puts his money to work in these areas.

Posted by: MikeMo1947 | Nov 12, 2008 6:42:12 PM

Thank You, RYAN! When obama was selected, I asked my son to put a big sign out saying NOBAMA! But, we didn't. I thought it would just be more attention to him!

Posted by: denisea213 | Nov 12, 2008 6:43:07 PM

"Buffett invested a combined $8 billion in General Electric and Goldman Sachs, on terms only someone like Warren Buffett could pull off. They have yet to break even."

Buffett's success has ALWAYS been he doesn't freak out over what stocks do in a one-month time frame. That you can even write this sentence suggests you are clueless.

Posted by: Oscar L | Nov 12, 2008 6:45:21 PM

When we hear the term, "the fundamentals of the economy are strong!" It is important to know what that means. One of the factors used is (GDP) Gross Domestic Product and that is up 3%. This in no way is to suggest it is a cure all, but it is important to see the whole picture. Abe Lincoln

Posted by: Abe Lincoln | Nov 12, 2008 6:45:24 PM

Hey Warren, how is that you voted for Hussein but put the bulk of your fortune in the private hands of the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation? Is this an example of later liberalism at its best? Let the government spread your wealth around, however mine will be spread by private hands. What a hypocrite!!!!

Posted by: Germany 1930s | Nov 12, 2008 6:46:54 PM

I bought some stocks a month ago and I'm not a millionaire yet. Capitalism must be over.

Well, it's sheep like you people who buy when stock is high and sell when it's low that ultimately help the rest of us make money.

Posted by: Michael | Nov 12, 2008 6:47:46 PM

"As the article points out, nearly every Buffet pick this year is a loser"

Well, he didn't pick McCain/Palin, and those are the biggest losers.

Posted by: Jeff Anscough | Nov 12, 2008 6:49:57 PM

Ryan bby - Why do you bring Obama into this discussion? You act like you know the outcome of an Obama administration before he ever take offices. If you have the ability to know the future, why aren't you pointing out how you predicted that a G.W.Bush administration will lead us into another depression? In fact, tell us how many jobs will be lost before Bush leaves office and what the Dow Jones will be on that day. Are you just whining or do you really have this gift?

Posted by: MikeMo1947 | Nov 12, 2008 6:53:36 PM

I dont think eve Buffet can control or fix what is mostly stock holder fear.

Posted by: Scotti | Nov 12, 2008 6:58:33 PM

If Ryan was that prescient he'd be richer.

Posted by: Not so deluded | Nov 12, 2008 7:01:34 PM

Germany 1930s - Are you saying Buffet can't participate in capitalism and also help those not as fortunate? Maybe you have trouble doing that, but almost everyone else and almost every country does both. I have no clue what you mean by private hands. Do you mean your hands or the hands of capitalists or what?

Posted by: MikeMo1947 | Nov 12, 2008 7:04:10 PM

As many have pointed out, stocks are on sale right now at bargain basement prices. Some of their drop in value is justified by the economic situation, but much of it was driven by blind panic a couple of weeks ago. That panic already pushed stocks so low that they were trading well below their real value. They still are. Watch the bounce when people get wind of that fact.

Posted by: Picker | Nov 12, 2008 7:04:13 PM

Warren Buffett is a aging hypocrite. Where was this fool 30 years ago calling for higher taxes when he was trying to build his business? These old wealthy guys want a legacy other than just having made a lot of money. Now that they have it, they attack those attempting to create wealth for the next generation. I have no need for Warren Buffet. His days are gone.

Posted by: Steve B | Nov 12, 2008 7:05:14 PM

" Where was this fool 30 years ago ..." Getting richer than you and I, that's where. So who is the fool?

Posted by: Sage of Illinois | Nov 12, 2008 7:10:13 PM

MikeMo1947 - I mean that Warren does NOT walk his talk. The ticket he supported (Hussein-Biden) believes that one of the roles of government is to "spread the wealth around" by taking it away from the wealthy and giving it to the poor. If Warren sincerely believe that the best way to help those who have less is the tax system, he would have donated the bulk of his wealth to the Federal Government. Now, he knows that the private sector, such as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, is much better helping the poor (and this belief BTW is one of the foundations of the GOP platform), so he gave the bulk of his fortune to them and by that he avoided paying taxes on that wealth to the Federal Governemnt. So yes, Warren is one of the biggest hypocrites of our time.

Posted by: Germany 1930s | Nov 12, 2008 7:12:31 PM

chuck Nov 12, 2008 4:52:47 PM, what dashawn wrote was not cool at all. but does that make your racist rant noble? race IS a serious situation. and just because we have an African-American president won't end racism. that has to happen in each americans' heart. it just seems like you were waiting for a post about race so you could let loose with the hate. hate won't help the economy or race relations.

Posted by: Paul Wall | Nov 12, 2008 7:12:59 PM

Well like many others, my 401K is now a 201K however I'm still optimistic. There are so many great deals out there for those who have a little spare cash to invest. I don't make much but since I don't believe in buying things on credit, things that I don't really need, for example that big huge widescreen TV, there is a little left to invest. Now is that time as far as I'm concerned. Yes the market still may drop more but in the long run we will look back on this timeframe as possibly the best buying opportunity of our lifetime. Cheer up, we are near the bottom. Republican trickle-down voodoo economic theory has been thorougly debunked and more reasonable policies will prevail.

So if you can... Buy Now.

Posted by: Yes_We_Will | Nov 12, 2008 7:14:00 PM

It's funny that those who ridicule Buffet have never been in his position of wealth. Those know-it-alls are probably lucky to have a net worth. People don't seem to question Trump when he speaks so why would they question Buffet? Until you've been in his shoes I wouldn't talk.

Posted by: Rick | Nov 12, 2008 7:14:49 PM

You know I never knew how many losers we really have in this world until you read some of these posts!
Ladies and gents read the fine print, in this article the writer states"well for Buffetts recent bets, they have not paid off yet"! Yet is the key word!
If any one knew Buffett and his mastory is that he does not expect to make money one day later,two days later, or even one month later!
Buffett made all those billions by having something most Americans do not have and that is PATIENCE!
Any fool should know that the stock market and the housing market will eventually turn around, and why most small minded scared to death, pessimitics continue to think the end is near people such as myself will be buying shares of GE at $16 and laughing all the way to the bank when they start selling for $54!
Way to go Warren, your my American Hero!
Oh by the way I am young black man who started in America poor and rose out of poverty to become very wealthy!
SO I love our capitilisitic system!

Posted by: Kevin | Nov 12, 2008 7:23:00 PM

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