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Recession Hits One-Year Anniversary
December 01, 2008 1:36 PM
ABC News' Scott Mayerowitz reports: It’s official: The United States is in a recession.
The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced this afternoon that it had concluded that the country entered a recession in December 2007. The U.S. economy had been growing since November 2001.
The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.
“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators,” the committee said in a news release.
The committee noted that after December the number of people employed started to decline. The country lost more than 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of the year. Additionally, manufacturing declined during that period.
While the recession started nearly a year ago, it takes the bureau normally six to 18 months to officially declare one -- to remove any doubt and so it can accurately declare a state date.
Today’s announcement wasn’t really a surprise to anybody. We have long known that 49 states were in or at risk of recession. And all the other telltale signs existed: shrinking GPD and mounting job losses.
The White House responded to the private group’s determination this way:
"As we’ve always said, NBER determines the start and end dates of business cycles, and they’ve done that,” said Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto. “But what’s important is what is being done about it. The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that’s where we’ll continue to focus. Addressing these parts of the economy will help to return the economy to economic growth.”
It means we’re already a year in to the current down cycle, which makes this recession longer than the average post-World War II recession (10 months) and so-far the third worst since 1945 (Nov. 1973 and July 1981 recessions both lasted 16 months).
It also means the current Bush administration saw two official downturns. The last time that happened was during the first Reagan term (January 1980 and July 1981).
The average recession since 1854 has lasted 17 months, but since the turn of the last century we’ve seen a marked reduction in the length of down cycles. Since 1900, recessions have averaged 14 months; just 10 months in the post-WWII era.
The worst recession of the modern era: 43 months from August 1929 to March 1933. To best that milestone, the U.S. would have to be contracting through August 2011.
For more information on the bureau’s decision, check out the news release: http://www.nber.org/dec2008.html
December 1, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (60)
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Useless academic declarations of the obvious. I suppose there was some sort of multi-million dollar grant awarded to find out this information?
Posted by: CaptainObvious | Dec 1, 2008 1:49:19 PM
Bush wanted this information to only come out after the November elections.
Posted by: Terry | Dec 1, 2008 1:52:02 PM
So how exactly is Faux noise going to spin this as being Obama's recession now?
Too bad for the 20% brigade this one is hung around the neck of the shrubbo missadministration and nobody is going to be able to take it off.
Good legacy for Bush, just another failed enterprise in a long list of them.
Posted by: Peter Jackson | Dec 1, 2008 1:53:39 PM
Recession ??? This is a DEPRESSION !!!
Thank you CONgress - - -
Posted by: Dave | Dec 1, 2008 1:54:50 PM
This worthless DEMOCRAT Congress took their eye off their MAIN responsibility, the Economy. (presidents run wars, hence "Commander-in-Chief)
This Do Nothing DEMOCRAT Congress instead conducted daily "political lynchings" and "endless votes on US troop withdraws from Iraq" (Does everyone STILL remember that?)
That's ok the Democrats........................aka the new "Master Party" has their friends and fellow fascists in our MSM wolfpack press and their lying and misleading propaganda.
Weclome to NAZI America..............................the "Master Party" is in control..........(of your mind and thoughts, too)
Posted by: Allen Ridge | Dec 1, 2008 2:00:11 PM
Dont count on any recovery in '09. The market has another 2500 points to go on the downside...
Posted by: Father Time | Dec 1, 2008 2:00:51 PM
Nice!
So why exactly did they
keep this "news" under
wraps for a year? And
why announce it exactly
right now?
Posted by: Petkov | Dec 1, 2008 2:01:23 PM
Nice!
So why exactly did they
keep this "news" under
wraps for a year? And
why announce it exactly
right now?
Posted by: Petkov | Dec 1, 2008 2:02:04 PM
I didn't need the news to tell me what i already know.
Posted by: Cindy | Dec 1, 2008 2:05:23 PM
People keep asking when we see the recovery? I want to know when will we hit bottom? How deep is the bottom? Is there a depression ahead? How bad does it have to be before it is officially a depression?
Posted by: GreggW | Dec 1, 2008 2:05:50 PM
So how exactly is Faux noise going to spin this as being Obama's recession now?
Too bad for the 20% brigade this one is hung around the neck of the shrubbo missadministration and nobody is going to be able to take it off.
Good legacy for Bush, just another failed enterprise in a long list of them.
Posted by: Peter Jackson
______________________________
Well, for your infomation, YOUR party controlled Congress for the past two years, and it was the GOOD guys, Chris Dodd and Barney Frank who were directly in charge of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are the two enterprises that caused the recession.
As to Obama, now that he is President, the recession WILL become HIS recession very shortly...Unless of course, the liberal media decides not to report the recession in order to make Obama look good.
Posted by: marco | Dec 1, 2008 2:08:46 PM
Gee, Peter, I don't know...how long will it take the recession to be blamed on Obama? Maybe as long as it took everybody to blame Bush for the economic slowdown that started well before the end of Clinton's second term? If that's the case, it'll take about 20 minutes but I have a feeling it'll all be blamed on Bush with the Democratic controlled Congress getting another pass.
Posted by: MizFW | Dec 1, 2008 2:14:28 PM
Oh my goodness. Ron Paul was right. I of course knew that years ago, but so much of America wants to exist in their ridiculous sense of hubris. Too bad for us. Maybe you bomb happy republicans will have a chance in 2012 to vote for the prophetic one.
Posted by: Huh | Dec 1, 2008 2:14:53 PM
I love the fear mongering that the government tries to get into our heads with. It shows that they are scared $h1t1ess over us knowing the truth. Delaying information is all part of the game, and the people are the real losers. The same people that keep this information from you are the same people that are killing innocent people all over the world.....THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. You simple minded Americans don't care though, because you have already been brainwashed and now you are doing the same to your children family and friends. Get a grip America, think for yourself for the first time ever.....it feels better than regurgitating the governments propaganda and lies......which you have so unwittingly made a part of your life since you were born.
Posted by: tehevo | Dec 1, 2008 2:16:57 PM
tehevo - Dude well said.
Posted by: Huh | Dec 1, 2008 2:18:41 PM
2% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2008. 3% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2008. This report is a PATHETIC JOKE that re-defines a recession. It's probably sponsored by the BIG 3 to help them get their BAILOUT! Shoppers killing people to buy STUFF - sounds like a recession doesn't it? The American People are being MANIPULATED by the MEDIA and WALL STREET
Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 2:21:43 PM
No ! Really? I hadn't noticed ! :| This is why we are in the state we are in. Ostrich syndrome for a year will do this.
Posted by: Renee | Dec 1, 2008 2:25:17 PM
Its now OFFICIAL. Maybe we can get Hannity and the rest of the Fox Noise Network to quit calling it Obama's recession!!
Posted by: hang | Dec 1, 2008 2:27:44 PM
We knew this before the announcement. The good news is that we'll know that we're out of this recession a year before the Gov does. coool.
Posted by: Joe | Dec 1, 2008 2:29:01 PM
Something else on the same level that's also official -- I got out of bed this morning.
Posted by: em | Dec 1, 2008 2:29:38 PM
6.5% unemployment. Problem is, America now thinks GDP growth and historically low unemployment is a recession. ONLY in an election year when the MEDIA really wants a particular candidate and when WALL STREET wants TAXPAYER's money for a BAILOUT.
Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 2:33:57 PM
Boy, these financial experts are great at predicting the past.
Posted by: truth | Dec 1, 2008 2:34:17 PM
Get out while you can...the majic number is 5800! It will take 20 years to get back to 14,000!
Posted by: Other Way | Dec 1, 2008 2:40:47 PM
Its now OFFICIAL. Maybe we can get Hannity and the rest of the Fox Noise Network to quit calling it Obama's recession!!---------------------They are spin masters. It's their job to shrub off responsibility. They have brought us a nation that feeds upon itself in a cannibalism way.
Posted by: rightbehind | Dec 1, 2008 2:45:18 PM
No really. I thought it was all in our minds and we were all just whinning.
Posted by: Jenny Rome Ga | Dec 1, 2008 2:50:05 PM
The Fed’s balance sheet “will eventually have to be brought back to a more sustainable level,” Bernanke said. MORE UNSUSTAINABLE ECONOMICS deployed to prop-up the disequilibrium of ASSET PRICES on Wall Street. FOLLOW THE MONEY AND BUY STOCKS WITH THE BAILED-OUT WALL STREETERS!!!
Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 2:53:41 PM
The first step to recovery is admitting and accepting you have problem. Then you deal with recovery!
Posted by: Jerry Case | Dec 1, 2008 2:53:47 PM
Ah yet another of Bush's lies finally surfaces.
Posted by: CC | Dec 1, 2008 2:54:21 PM
The working class has know this for over a year, wages smaller, everything out of the normal person reach. Why does everyone want to hide the faxes that we already know??
Posted by: Joan | Dec 1, 2008 2:58:16 PM
The entire world economy depends on the US consumers. What Bush should have been doing, instead of giving these huge tax cuts to the super rich, was making sure all of us had enough money to spend as consumers. As it is now, George W. Bush will go down in history as a very failed President.
Posted by: US Citizen | Dec 1, 2008 2:58:59 PM
T,
Its never been just two negative GDP quarters. There are so many facotrs. So instead of calling this a new way of determining a recession, you should just think that you have always been wrong but now know how its really done. NBER has been around for a long long time. www.nber.org
Posted by: North Park | Dec 1, 2008 3:01:57 PM
North Park - Economists have for decades used the 2-quarter measure. Kennedy used it, Reagan used it, Clinton used it...on and on. As you probably know some other organization came out about a week ago and said it started in April/May. These organizations are getting their 15 minutes of fame.
Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 3:09:49 PM
No T youre wrong. NBER has been around for a long long time. two quarters of GDP is just the short easy answer...but its not the correct answer..Man it was 10 years ago I was on their web site b/c I was trying to predict the probably of a recession based on quarterly data using logit and probit regression analysis. These variables used have been around brother. Its been awhile for me but I think they have data going back to the 1940's. So look all Im sdaying is that its not new. Thinking its two quarters of negative GDP is wrong. get over it. I dont care if the Pope used it, its wrong!
Posted by: North Park | Dec 1, 2008 3:33:42 PM
Get ready for 8-10% Unemployment - I hope you are saving instead of spending..
Posted by: Trickle This | Dec 1, 2008 3:35:53 PM
The worse part is I think the only reason we got out of the last recession was only becassue people did more work for less. I was laid off during the last recession and When I found new work it was nowhere near what I was making before.
Posted by: North Park | Dec 1, 2008 3:38:52 PM
Like everybody already didn't know! Sheesh!
Posted by: LongT | Dec 1, 2008 3:44:06 PM
8 years of super-majority GOP rule and all I got was this RECESSION!
Posted by: PRESIDENT OBAMA | Dec 1, 2008 4:07:53 PM
Most people in this country already knew that we had been in a recession for quite some time now. I'm guessing that the Bush administration needed to hear the "official announcement" today. It seems that up to this point, they didn't have a clue!
Posted by: jmb | Dec 1, 2008 4:08:46 PM
NorthPark -- So, I'll look forward to you calling 3% GDP growth and 6.1% unemployment (like we had in the 2nd quarter of this year) a recession in the future. You won't call it that. NOBODY would -- I don't care if NBER was blessed by the POPE.
Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 4:15:34 PM
T so wait a minute, youre saying this country is NOT in a Recession?
Please just goto www.nber.org and read for yourself. You've annoyed me to no end. I dont know what else to say to you except that youre wrong. Im sure youve had long quality talks with Reagen, Clinton and Kennedy. ITs just not all about GDP or unemployment. There are other variables, if you had any econometrics in college you'd understand. But Im afraid you might have not made it that far, b/c of youre unwillingness to listen.
So, go on believing what you do... it makes no difference to me how ignorant you are or how ignorant you want to be.
Posted by: Jaydee | Dec 1, 2008 4:39:51 PM
Its only a recession when it starts to affect the wallets
of Bush's super wealthy 2%.
For the rest of America, its a DEPRESSION!
Like a whole lot of people, I'm making less than half of what I made BEFORE this monkey came into office.
Posted by: bushwart | Dec 1, 2008 4:52:26 PM
just what was the 700 billion bailout for???
Posted by: jack | Dec 1, 2008 5:25:13 PM
I can't believe this administration waited until after the election to make an official announcement about a recession. They did not want to influence the votes! Glad the voters saw the truth!
Posted by: ssbeck | Dec 1, 2008 6:47:52 PM
Okay, it's official now. Time to panic. Seriosly though, ssbeck, the ADMINISTRATION DID NOT WANT TO INFLUENCE VOTES?!?! No, it just supported a (totally bogus) bail-out plan, issued several speeches on the economy, and pressured Congress to DO SOMETHING ABOUT THE ECONOMY! As has already (kind of) been stated, the president's main job is not the economy. He is the Commander in Chief, but on TOP of that, he is the head of the EXECUTIVE BRANCH. Okay, time for a quick eighth grade lesson on how our government works, in a nutshell. The LEGISLATIVE BRANCH (Congress) makes laws, the EXECUTIVE BRANCH (President and Co.) executes laws. HEAR THAT? The president is there for 1. A Check on the Congress with Vetoes, 2. The person who handles the military and gets laws executed, and 3. As a figurehead and a symbolic figurehead for the country. (In recent years, certain members of our news organizations have added 4. A person to blame when everything doesn't go perfectly) If our economy is lame, WHAT WAS BUSH SUPPOSED TO DO ABOUT IT?! I say he does nothing, we somehow manage to convince Obama to scrap is Newer Deal ideas, and we let the market do its thing like it has for centuries.
P.S. If you have never read Adam Smith's Wealth of Nations, or at least heard its principles, then you are missing out on the principles that make our economy run, and you are probably liberal.
Posted by: Patriot | Dec 1, 2008 7:26:40 PM
According to Keynes, the root cause of an economic downturns is an insufficient aggregate demand. When the total demand for goods and services declines, businesses throughout the economy see their sales fall off. Lower sales induce firms to cut back production and to lay off workers. Rising unemployment and declining profits further depress demand, leading to a feedback loop with a very unhappy ending.
Posted by: Jason | Dec 1, 2008 9:56:00 PM
It's official. Academics declare that hindsight really is 20-20.
Posted by: Dugese | Dec 1, 2008 10:36:05 PM
The analysts were announcing it. George Bush, the decider, was denying it. We were all feeling it. Who's suprised by it?
Posted by: Rick_VT | Dec 1, 2008 10:37:55 PM
Definition:
Recession = your neighbor lost his job
Depression = YOU lost your job
Posted by: babaganoosh | Dec 1, 2008 11:03:06 PM
I am hereby announcing that we've been in a Depression since October 2008, and that by the time these bozos realize it we will have completely recovered.
Posted by: Dugese | Dec 2, 2008 12:49:48 AM
MORE GAMES being played by the BAILED-OUT WALL STREET gurus - WALL STREET runs on BAILOUT MONEY now and WALL STREET wants to make sure DETROIT joins the BAILOUT BONANZA. If the market looks too good, then DETROIT might miss getting in on the action. ABC with it's depression/recession obsession is part of the FLEECING of the TAXPAYER.
Posted by: T | Dec 2, 2008 12:27:45 PM
Is there ever a time Bush hasn't bowed to lobbyists and did was right for America? From CNBC: The Bush administration backed off proposed crackdowns on no-money-down, interest-only mortgages years before the economy collapsed, buckling to pressure from some of the same banks that have now failed.
It ignored remarkably prescient warnings that foretold the financial meltdown, according to an Associated Press review of regulatory documents.
"Expect fallout, expect foreclosures, expect horror stories," California mortgage lender Paris Welch wrote to U.S. regulators in January 2006, about one year before the housing implosion cost her a job.
Bowing to aggressive lobbying—along with assurances from banks that the troubled mortgages were OK—regulators delayed action for nearly one year.
The administration's blind eye to the impending crisis is emblematic of a philosophy that trusted market forces and discounted the need for government intervention in the economy.
Its belief ironically has ushered in the most massive government intervention since the 1930s.
Posted by: Hege! | Dec 2, 2008 3:37:11 PM
Hege! - Market forces do work. This has not been a free market. The Feds policies caused this massive bubble. Greenspan even admitted it last month on the hill. Some regulation may be well and good, but keeping transparency on the FED is just as important.
Posted by: Huh | Dec 2, 2008 8:46:51 PM
Bush leads us into a trillion dollar war, misleads Americans about Weapons of Mass Destruction, sends trillion dollar budgets to Congress (daring them to "abandon" the Heroic Troops), borrowing money from Japan and China, hand-over-fist. Now, when the Country is gasping for Air, he leaves office with his head held high, LOL! He lied about "Global Warming", about the economy being "great", and lied about the beginning of the recession.....anything else you Republicans want to back him up about?
Posted by: able | Dec 3, 2008 1:51:45 AM
I first said if they wanted to ruin the economy just raise the price of gas. Remember non of the political parties said nothing about it, except maybe free market. Wall street is the last to figure out what the economy is really doing for just as the polititians.
Posted by: driver658 | Dec 4, 2008 7:42:24 PM
many people in this planet forgot about the God of the Bible.He clearly said that man will be permited to govern this planet for 6,000 years then He will take over for 1,000yrs to restore paradise.It is no surprise why the goverment of the world is crumbling because God is saying MENE MENE TEKEL PARSIN.In daniel 2:44 God will permit E.U. to rule the world for 7yrs so please go back and read the Bible cause none of this shall fail.Luke 1:31-33
Posted by: Velasco Legasi | Dec 6, 2008 1:11:36 AM
"My God, such as the economic crisis, looooook, handbags are not worth www.handbagsjobber.com" Excuse me, you, I see only good news would like to share.Merry Christmas everybody
Posted by: jack | Dec 14, 2008 11:00:56 AM
"My God, such as the economic crisis, looooook, handbags are not worth www.handbagsjobber.com" Excuse me, you, I see only good news would like to share.Merry Christmas everybody
Posted by: jack | Dec 14, 2008 11:03:02 AM
Lets see,
"unemployment rate is now at 6.5 percent, the highest it has been since March 1994"
March 1994 was year two of Billy Bubba Clinton. How come the MSM was not calling it a depression then? Where were al you whiny liberals when when the economy was tanking under Clinton? Blaming Bush senior?
If you want somebody to blame. look in the mirror. Greedy bums buying houses they could not afford. Even more greedy bankers approving the mortgages. Overal stupid people thinking that the housing fueled expansion would go on forever Worthless Senators and Congressmen lining thier pockets. And the rest of us merrily buying up crap from China while our jobs drift away etc etc etc ad-nauseum.
Posted by: Tom | Dec 15, 2008 3:50:17 PM
oops forgot yo add, If you think the economy is fun now, wait until the bill for FDRs old failed ideas comes due.
Posted by: Tom | Dec 15, 2008 3:51:52 PM
I never voted for GWB once, but when I hear people say "Bush led us into war, or led us here or there" I puke. Like its Bush's fault you FOLLOWED! Like another contributor said, look in the mirror and you will see who is at fault and who is the cure. But that won't happen because it is easier to be a lemming who follows the pied piper whenever the wants them to go. Like water or electricity taking the path of least resistance. I was against the invasion of Iraq, I voted against Bush twice, once before and surely after Iraq, and I'm against one copper-plated penny being spent on assistance for anything or anybody. Whether you call this a recession, a depression, or a panic, it is the kick in the groin the people of this country need. But no, the government has to parry the reality with bailouts; bailouts not for the man or woman who played and lived by the rules but rather save those that were either too stupid and/or too greedy. Whether you have credit card problems, rising ARMs you never should have had, or made foolish, unwise, and risky investments, it was you, not me, who made that choice. Even with rates at 0% the people who made the stupid decisions will continue to do so. The rate can't make people think rationally, wisely, or conservatively. Looking at trends, the medicine of free money is only going to make the illness worse because the patient is too stupid or greedy to get themselves well. The only cure is self-cure and a major portion simply don't have that courage. So, no matter who is leading, they don't have to worry about not being followed. Self-pity is what lemmings feast on for survival
Posted by: Tom | Dec 17, 2008 12:29:47 AM
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