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Recession Hits One-Year Anniversary

December 01, 2008 1:36 PM

Mayerowitz ABC News' Scott Mayerowitz reports: It’s official: The United States is in a recession.

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research announced this afternoon that it had concluded that the country entered a recession in December 2007. The U.S. economy had been growing since November 2001.

The expansion lasted 73 months; the previous expansion of the 1990s lasted 120 months.

Ap_recession_begins_081201_main “A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in production, employment, real income, and other indicators,” the committee said in a news release.

The committee noted that after December the number of people employed started to decline. The country lost more than 1.2 million jobs in the first 10 months of the year. Additionally, manufacturing declined during that period.

While the recession started nearly a year ago, it takes the bureau normally six to 18 months to officially declare one -- to remove any doubt and so it can accurately declare a state date.

Today’s announcement wasn’t really a surprise to anybody. We have long known that 49 states were in or at risk of recession. And all the other telltale signs existed: shrinking GPD and mounting job losses.

The White House responded to the private group’s determination this way:

"As we’ve always said, NBER determines the start and end dates of business cycles, and they’ve done that,” said Deputy Press Secretary Tony Fratto. “But what’s important is what is being done about it. The most important things we can do for the economy right now are to return the financial and credit markets to normal, and to continue to make progress in housing, and that’s where we’ll continue to focus. Addressing these parts of the economy will help to return the economy to economic growth.”

It means we’re already a year in to the current down cycle, which makes this recession longer than the average post-World War II recession (10 months) and so-far the third worst since 1945 (Nov. 1973 and July 1981 recessions both lasted 16 months).

It also means the current Bush administration saw two official downturns. The last time that happened was during the first Reagan term (January 1980 and July 1981).

The average recession since 1854 has lasted 17 months, but since the turn of the last century we’ve seen a marked reduction in the length of down cycles. Since 1900, recessions have averaged 14 months; just 10 months in the post-WWII era.

The worst recession of the modern era: 43 months from August 1929 to March 1933. To best that milestone, the U.S. would have to be contracting through August 2011.

For more information on the bureau’s decision, check out the news release: http://www.nber.org/dec2008.html

December 1, 2008 | Permalink | User Comments (60)

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Useless academic declarations of the obvious. I suppose there was some sort of multi-million dollar grant awarded to find out this information?

Posted by: CaptainObvious | Dec 1, 2008 1:49:19 PM

Bush wanted this information to only come out after the November elections.

Posted by: Terry | Dec 1, 2008 1:52:02 PM

So how exactly is Faux noise going to spin this as being Obama's recession now?

Too bad for the 20% brigade this one is hung around the neck of the shrubbo missadministration and nobody is going to be able to take it off.

Good legacy for Bush, just another failed enterprise in a long list of them.

Posted by: Peter Jackson | Dec 1, 2008 1:53:39 PM

Recession ??? This is a DEPRESSION !!!
Thank you CONgress - - -

Posted by: Dave | Dec 1, 2008 1:54:50 PM

This worthless DEMOCRAT Congress took their eye off their MAIN responsibility, the Economy. (presidents run wars, hence "Commander-in-Chief)

This Do Nothing DEMOCRAT Congress instead conducted daily "political lynchings" and "endless votes on US troop withdraws from Iraq" (Does everyone STILL remember that?)

That's ok the Democrats........................aka the new "Master Party" has their friends and fellow fascists in our MSM wolfpack press and their lying and misleading propaganda.

Weclome to NAZI America..............................the "Master Party" is in control..........(of your mind and thoughts, too)

Posted by: Allen Ridge | Dec 1, 2008 2:00:11 PM

Dont count on any recovery in '09. The market has another 2500 points to go on the downside...

Posted by: Father Time | Dec 1, 2008 2:00:51 PM

Nice!
So why exactly did they
keep this "news" under
wraps for a year? And
why announce it exactly
right now?

Posted by: Petkov | Dec 1, 2008 2:01:23 PM

Nice!
So why exactly did they
keep this "news" under
wraps for a year? And
why announce it exactly
right now?

Posted by: Petkov | Dec 1, 2008 2:02:04 PM

I didn't need the news to tell me what i already know.

Posted by: Cindy | Dec 1, 2008 2:05:23 PM

People keep asking when we see the recovery? I want to know when will we hit bottom? How deep is the bottom? Is there a depression ahead? How bad does it have to be before it is officially a depression?

Posted by: GreggW | Dec 1, 2008 2:05:50 PM

So how exactly is Faux noise going to spin this as being Obama's recession now?

Too bad for the 20% brigade this one is hung around the neck of the shrubbo missadministration and nobody is going to be able to take it off.

Good legacy for Bush, just another failed enterprise in a long list of them.

Posted by: Peter Jackson
______________________________
Well, for your infomation, YOUR party controlled Congress for the past two years, and it was the GOOD guys, Chris Dodd and Barney Frank who were directly in charge of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are the two enterprises that caused the recession.

As to Obama, now that he is President, the recession WILL become HIS recession very shortly...Unless of course, the liberal media decides not to report the recession in order to make Obama look good.

Posted by: marco | Dec 1, 2008 2:08:46 PM

Gee, Peter, I don't know...how long will it take the recession to be blamed on Obama? Maybe as long as it took everybody to blame Bush for the economic slowdown that started well before the end of Clinton's second term? If that's the case, it'll take about 20 minutes but I have a feeling it'll all be blamed on Bush with the Democratic controlled Congress getting another pass.

Posted by: MizFW | Dec 1, 2008 2:14:28 PM

Oh my goodness. Ron Paul was right. I of course knew that years ago, but so much of America wants to exist in their ridiculous sense of hubris. Too bad for us. Maybe you bomb happy republicans will have a chance in 2012 to vote for the prophetic one.

Posted by: Huh | Dec 1, 2008 2:14:53 PM

I love the fear mongering that the government tries to get into our heads with. It shows that they are scared $h1t1ess over us knowing the truth. Delaying information is all part of the game, and the people are the real losers. The same people that keep this information from you are the same people that are killing innocent people all over the world.....THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. You simple minded Americans don't care though, because you have already been brainwashed and now you are doing the same to your children family and friends. Get a grip America, think for yourself for the first time ever.....it feels better than regurgitating the governments propaganda and lies......which you have so unwittingly made a part of your life since you were born.

Posted by: tehevo | Dec 1, 2008 2:16:57 PM

tehevo - Dude well said.

Posted by: Huh | Dec 1, 2008 2:18:41 PM

2% GDP growth in the first quarter of 2008. 3% GDP growth in the second quarter of 2008. This report is a PATHETIC JOKE that re-defines a recession. It's probably sponsored by the BIG 3 to help them get their BAILOUT! Shoppers killing people to buy STUFF - sounds like a recession doesn't it? The American People are being MANIPULATED by the MEDIA and WALL STREET

Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 2:21:43 PM

No ! Really? I hadn't noticed ! :| This is why we are in the state we are in. Ostrich syndrome for a year will do this.

Posted by: Renee | Dec 1, 2008 2:25:17 PM

Its now OFFICIAL. Maybe we can get Hannity and the rest of the Fox Noise Network to quit calling it Obama's recession!!

Posted by: hang | Dec 1, 2008 2:27:44 PM

We knew this before the announcement. The good news is that we'll know that we're out of this recession a year before the Gov does. coool.

Posted by: Joe | Dec 1, 2008 2:29:01 PM

Something else on the same level that's also official -- I got out of bed this morning.

Posted by: em | Dec 1, 2008 2:29:38 PM

6.5% unemployment. Problem is, America now thinks GDP growth and historically low unemployment is a recession. ONLY in an election year when the MEDIA really wants a particular candidate and when WALL STREET wants TAXPAYER's money for a BAILOUT.

Posted by: T | Dec 1, 2008 2:33:57 PM

Boy, these financial experts are great at predicting the past.

Posted by: truth | Dec 1, 2008 2:34:17 PM

Get out while you can...the majic number is 5800! It will take 20 years to get back to 14,000!

Posted by: Other Way | Dec 1, 2008 2:40:47 PM

Its now OFFICIAL. Maybe we can get Hannity and the rest of the Fox Noise Network to quit calling it Obama's recession!!---------------------They are spin masters. It's their job to shrub off responsibility. They have brought us a nation that feeds upon itself in a cannibalism way.

Posted by: rightbehind | Dec 1, 2008 2:45:18 PM

No really. I thought it was all in our minds and we were all just whinning.

Posted by: Jenny Rome Ga | Dec 1, 2008 2:50:05 PM

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